Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[AnotherAccount?]

can't even go to $300?

http://i60.tinypic.com/28m1k43.jpg

do you guys think we will go still below $300  

https://i.imgur.com/DM7i0gA.jpg

http://chineseposters.net/images/e15-478.jpg

INSANE TREND REVERSAL/RALLY TO:


$680

$580

$480

$380

$280



CONFIRMED!!!!!

MAYBE IT EVEN GOES TO $380 THIS TIME BEFORE CRASHING AGAIN!!!!!!

MOOOOOOOOOOOOooooOOOoooOOOON




http://s21.postimg.org/u8c3g8n87/wileec2.gif

[1715115879]

1715115879

[1715115879]

1715115879

[1715115879]

1715115879

[macsga]

TrollChop

SERIOUSLY?

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

LOL. Iz Bitcorn ded ugaise?

[inca]

Checking in between cases to see nothing other than the resident troll talking to himself. Saaaaaaad.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[macsga]

Checking in between cases to see nothing other than the resident troll talking to himself. Saaaaaaad.

Steam is gaining pressure. It won't be so quiet for long I guess.

[oda.krell]

TrollChop

SERIOUSLY?

Sometimes I really wonder if theymos was paid by somebody for closing - and keeping closed - newbie jail...

I mean, I and many others repeatedly asked to re-open the "probation period" so that, at the very least, the number of utterly useless new troll accounts is *limited*, even if it doesn't get rid of the problem entirely.

Mods respond to that request by "only theymos can change that", and he seems unwilling to do so. Really beyond me why he feels that way, which is leading me to come up with paranoid theories (see first line)

[ponch85]

https://www.tradingview.com/v/WjSbESni/

[oda.krell]

A multiple-bubble descriptive model of bitcoin price
Preliminary version


[ click on the graph for a full-size version. ]

This plot show a model (green irregular line) for the historic series of daily BTC prices (gray irregular line) as the sum of "simple bubbles".  The reddish-brown line at value about 1 is the ratio of the model and the actual price.

In each "simple bubble", the price grows exponentially with some rate r1 until a maximum value P at some date d1, then stays constant until some date d2, then decays with some rate r2.  In most bubbles the dates d1 and d2 are equal, so there is no flat part between the exponential rise and the exponential decay.

The model is the sum of several of those "simple bubbles", each with its own parameters r1,d1,P,d2,r2. They are the triangular or trapezoidal lines in the plot.

Although each "simple bubble" mathematically extends infinitely in the past and in the future,  it is relevant only for some limited interval of dates that includes d1 and d2.  Outside that interval, it is too small compared to the sum of the other bubbles, and it could even be assumed to be zero, without a perceptible change in the model.

I believe that each "simple bubble" in this model, or set of consecutive bubbles, corresponds to the opening of some market, distinguished by geography, national borders, application, community, etc.  For example, the two "simple bubbles" labeled "SH1" and "SH2" are probably due to surges of demand in China created by BTC-China in Shanghai.  The four "simple bubbles" labeled "BJ0" to "BJ4" are almost certainly due to the adoption of bitcoin by the amateur commodity speculators in Mainland China, especially via OKCoin and Huobi in Beijing.   Bubble "BJ0" models the basic demand of that market, while bubbles "BJ2" to "BJ4" model the extra demand that was turned on and off by the PBoC rumors and anti-rumors in early 2014.

The "simple bubble" model does not try to reproduce the oscillations of the price that occur at the end of a sharp rise.

The parameter P of each bubble represents its contribution to the price between d1 and d2.  It is not proportional to the demand of BTC by the corresponding market, because the effect on price of a given demand depends on the amount of BTC available for trading, and that amount must have been decreasing as the price increased.

In the log plot, the exponential rise and fall of each bubble, plotted by itself, are straight diagonal lines; the rates r1 and r2 define their slopes. When the bubbles are added together, however, the rise and fall get distorted, and appear curved in the plot.

The raw prices (gray line) are the weighted mean prices in each UTC day.  These raw prices and the simple bubbles were smoothed with a 15-day Hann window.

Alright. So, by now, I believe you know that I don't follow your basic premise ("Current price is a function of 'bubble like' market events that are closely linked to external events, like new markets."), and that you don't follow mine ("Current price is largely a function of the current and previous market state, with minor input from external events, which is best thought of as some sort of cyclical 'market mood' periods.").

But I'm interested nonetheless what you have to say, even though you're wrong

Which leads to me to my question: is there any predictive element in your model? From what I can tell, the answer is no, correct.

Put differently then: any idea how to extend the model to be somewhat predictive of future market states (doesn't matter what kind, direction, volatility,  return)?

[tarmi]

TrollChop

SERIOUSLY?

Sometimes I really wonder if theymos was paid by somebody for closing - and keeping closed - newbie jail...

I mean, I and many others repeatedly asked to re-open the "probation period" so that, at the very least, the number of utterly useless new troll accounts is *limited*, even if it doesn't get rid of the problem entirely.

Mods respond to that request by "only theymos can change that", and he seems unwilling to do so. Really beyond me why he feels that way, which is leading me to come up with paranoid theories (see first line)

yes, people often raise questions about theymos collecting donations, closing newbie jail, letting run obvious scams and ponzi securities threads open...

but guess what libertards...that's free market of yours.

[NewbieJailIsBadMmkay?]

TrollChop

SERIOUSLY?

Sometimes I really wonder if theymos was paid by somebody for closing - and keeping closed - newbie jail...

I mean, I and many others repeatedly asked to re-open the "probation period" so that, at the very least, the number of utterly useless new troll accounts is *limited*, even if it doesn't get rid of the problem entirely.

Mods respond to that request by "only theymos can change that", and he seems unwilling to do so. Really beyond me why he feels that way, which is leading me to come up with paranoid theories (see first line)

Plot Twist: Every beartroll in this forum is actually Theymos having fun and trolling you. He needs to give the bull troops a common enemy so they will stay motivated to buy so he can dump his stash on your heads.
Hang on tight, he still has a long way to go to unload all his coins!

[julian071]

<snip>

If the level of desperation of the trolls is directly correlated to the change BTC price will go up, we're definately ready to set sail to the moon now.

[fonzie]

TrollChop

SERIOUSLY?

Sometimes I really wonder if theymos was paid by somebody for closing - and keeping closed - newbie jail...

I mean, I and many others repeatedly asked to re-open the "probation period" so that, at the very least, the number of utterly useless new troll accounts is *limited*, even if it doesn't get rid of the problem entirely.

Mods respond to that request by "only theymos can change that", and he seems unwilling to do so. Really beyond me why he feels that way, which is leading me to come up with paranoid theories (see first line)

Plot Twist: Every beartroll in this forum is actually Theymos having fun and trolling you. He needs to give the bull troops a common enemy so they will stay motivated to buy so he can dump his stash on your heads.
Hang on tight, he still has a long way to go to unload all his coins!

Theymos= Mark Karpeles??   

"For instance, Karpeles was involved with the creation of Bitcointalk.org..."
http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2015/01/defense-bombshell-in-silk-road-trial-mt-gox-founder-set-up-ulbricht/

[oda.krell]

Sometimes I really wonder if theymos was paid by somebody for closing - and keeping closed - newbie jail...

I mean, I and many others repeatedly asked to re-open the "probation period" so that, at the very least, the number of utterly useless new troll accounts is *limited*, even if it doesn't get rid of the problem entirely.

Mods respond to that request by "only theymos can change that", and he seems unwilling to do so. Really beyond me why he feels that way, which is leading me to come up with paranoid theories (see first line)

yes, people often raise questions about theymos collecting donations, closing newbie jail, letting run obvious scams and ponzi securities threads open...

but guess what libertards...that's free market of yours.

Right. Because it's one of the defining features of places run by "libertards" that they're dens of corruption, scams, etc., while in the rest of the world, those qualities are mercifully absent.

The world must be a wonderful place if you conceptually dumb it down enough to fit into a simplistic scheme.  Also, allows you to avoid coming up with better answers to questions posed.

[aztecminer]

i think the auction is legit.... dealing drugs is one thing........but when you start ripping everyone off, killing people, threatening to kill people; then your ass is garbage and you belong in jail. #straightup gratz on your successful auction marshal's ... i own two b4c camaros from albuqueque and a undercover t-top firebird from los angeles (i just got this one) i got from auctions....and i have owned three other 9c1's before those i got from auctions. drug dealing is one thing....but there are a lot of bad people out there that belong in jail and from what i have read that silk road guy was a piece of trash. this is why i disagree with the sentiment around here that is against the auctions.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Bitcoins auctioned off like common coke boats? If the shoe fits...you lace that mofo up and wear it all over town

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Fatman3001]

Sometimes I really wonder if theymos was paid by somebody for closing - and keeping closed - newbie jail...

I mean, I and many others repeatedly asked to re-open the "probation period" so that, at the very least, the number of utterly useless new troll accounts is *limited*, even if it doesn't get rid of the problem entirely.

Mods respond to that request by "only theymos can change that", and he seems unwilling to do so. Really beyond me why he feels that way, which is leading me to come up with paranoid theories (see first line)

yes, people often raise questions about theymos collecting donations, closing newbie jail, letting run obvious scams and ponzi securities threads open...

but guess what libertards...that's free market of yours.

Right. Because it's one of the defining features of places run by "libertards" that they're dens of corruption, scams, etc., while in the rest of the world, those qualities are mercifully absent.

The world must be a wonderful place if you conceptually dumb it down enough to fit into a simplistic scheme.  Also, allows you to avoid coming up with better answers to questions posed.

Do we even know what "libertards" means? I want to knock it but I don't know where to start.

[sAt0sHiFanClub]

i think the auction is legit.... dealing drugs is one thing........but when you start ripping everyone off, killing people, threatening to kill people; then your ass is garbage and you belong in jail. #straightup gratz on your successful auction marshal's ... i own two b4c camaros from albuqueque and a undercover t-top firebird from los angeles (i just got this one) i got from auctions....and i have owned three other 9c1's before those i got from auctions. drug dealing is one thing....but there are a lot of bad people out there that belong in jail and from what i have read that silk road guy was a piece of trash. this is why i disagree with the sentiment around here that is against the auctions.

Who did he kill, and why wasnt he charged with this?

Other than that, you're basically saying crime is ok, as long as you get a cheap trashy car from it, Yeah?

[greenlion]

Alright. So, by now, I believe you know that I don't follow your basic premise ("Current price is a function of 'bubble like' market events that are closely linked to external events, like new markets."), and that you don't follow mine ("Current price is largely a function of the current and previous market state, with minor input from external events, which is best thought of as some sort of cyclical 'market mood' periods.").

But I'm interested nonetheless what you have to say, even though you're wrong

Which leads to me to my question: is there any predictive element in your model? From what I can tell, the answer is no, correct.

Put differently then: any idea how to extend the model to be somewhat predictive of future market states (doesn't matter what kind, direction, volatility,  return)?

The value in his model is that it's a futile exercise in overcomplication a la Ptolemaic epicycles in order to support his misplaced ideological beliefs.