Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ensjovis]

Pain will be over in 25 minutes. After that, big buys coming.

[1715114163]

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[alesx.onfire]

he U.S. Marshals Service is known to be one of the most avid users of StingRays, and documents confirm that the agency has spent more than $9 million on equipment and training since 2009. But while it appears the USMS is not under any nondisclosure agreement with the device manufacturer, the agency has withheld a wide range of basic information under an exemption meant to protect law enforcement techniques

http://yro.slashdot.org/story/15/03/05/181243/us-marshals-service-refuses-to-release-already-published-stingray-info

[Feri22]

Pain will be over in 25 minutes. After that, big buys coming.

Link on your crystal ball?

[KryptoFoo]

Pain will be over in 25 minutes. After that, big buys coming.

I was also thinking we might see a small "end of auction bid window" rally.

[brg444]

http://www.rre.com/blog/90-why-we-started-abra

Abra app-based transfers use the blockchain to settle, and transactions are published directly to the blockchain from your phone.  Abra’s back-end servers never touch consumer’s money or their transfer requests.  The value of the holdings in your wallet do NOT fluctuate with the value of Bitcoin for at least 3 days after initial deposit onto your phone.  Abra is not a financial service -- it is an app that facilitates storing digital currency equivalent to US Dollars directly on your smartphone and transferring your money from your Abra App to any other Abra App anywhere in the world.

To design Abra we turned to the traditional Hawala model.  (...)  Traditional Hawala’s are generally illegal in the United States as no one is allowed to hold or remit funds on behalf of someone else without being a licensed money transmitter both with FinCen (the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network) and with the US State regulators where the consumers’ reside.  In the case of Abra, however, consumers and Tellers are always holding their own money just as with the standard open source Bitcoin software.  Abra Tellers simply buy and sell digital currency directly to and from other consumers in their neighborhood in small amounts.

www.goabra.com

this might be a watershed moment for consumer adoption. was not expecting this at all. Goodbye KYC/AML

[petahashminer]

auction is over?

sell or buy?

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[oda.krell]

Like I said yesterday, I'll start worrying about the trend since Jan if and when we fall and stay below 260/265, or dip below the DSMA20 without quickly recovering from it.

Unless something like that happens, I consider the most likely scenario that we're going through a repeat of the late February period, i.e. higher low, followed by consolidation, followed by continuation of uptrend.

That has been the pattern for a year or so
Drops then higher lows followed by a rise up then a drop again to a new low area before that pattern roughly repeats
Kind of curious though when that trendline will be broken

On the larger scale, sure. It's a bear market we're in, after all But I'm talking about the January trend alone, so no new low (yet). And right now, I see more signs for consolidation + (upwards) continuation than reversal of the local trend from January.

At what point can the long-term downtrend be considered 'over'?

Depends who you ask, and what count they have in mind (if they use EW)

Depends also on what is meant by "long term downtrend being over". The old downtrend could be over, but be replaced by another one, maybe less severe (i.e. a different downwards channel). Or it could end, but not be immediately followed by a much more bullish market either (i.e. bottom is in, but it's not rally time yet). There are several ways to look at it...

Anyway, I don't have a fixed target at which I would conclude with certainty that the bear market is over, or let's say, that target is so high, I wouldn't want to wait until we reach it before buying back. That target would be roughly: close above weekly SMA20, supported by volume, possibly followed by consolidation or minor retracement not further than the SMA, followed by a trend reaching for upper weekly BB (high 300s to 400).

[ImI]

auction is over?

sell or buy?

[KryptoFoo]

auction is over?

sell or buy?

rent.

[sAt0sHiFanClub]

Auction: buy 50k at $350 and dump into the market $270 down to $200...
Isn't a smart idea, imho.

who said that the ask price is $350

maybe it will be $200, and they will dump the till $200

Why all the worry about the auction at all? I dont think it will make any real difference to the price. Whats important is that some decent ( even respectable) financials are getting behind it. Thats what will allow bitcoin to grow in use and popularity. And ultimately in value.

BIT - Secondmarket will ensure this is well run, they have some quality talent involved.
Pantera - Jury is out, they seem a bit flaky sometimes (got reamed at last auction, to da moom forecasts) but they have quality VC behind them ( Murphy's Benchmark)
Winkey lads - Cant really argue with Billions of green now, can you?  

These guys make it worthwhile investing in the future of bitcoin ( and by investing I dont necessarily mean buying it and hodling...)

[gizmoh]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102480336

Billionaire venture capitalist Tim Draper said he would be a bidder. "Probably the best deal anyone will get," said Draper on Thursday in an email to Reuters.
 
Thank you ^{(in advance)} Tim 

[KryptoFoo]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102480336

Billionaire venture capitalist Tim Draper said he would be a bidder. "Probably the best deal anyone will get," said Draper on Thursday in an email to Reuters.
 
Thank you Tim  

The regular players announced their intent to bid: Tim Draper, SecondMarket, Pantera Capital. Hodlers not dumpers.

[tarmi]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102480336

Billionaire venture capitalist Tim Draper said he would be a bidder. "Probably the best deal anyone will get," said Draper on Thursday in an email to Reuters.
 
Thank you Tim  

talking like a true bag holder!

after buying at 600 you can bet that 250 $ is a steal.

[alesx.onfire]

What happened with the acution???...

btw, ltc has more profit potential than btc especially with halving in July

[JayJuanGee]

Pain will be over in 25 minutes. After that, big buys coming.

I was also thinking we might see a small "end of auction bid window" rally.

Frequently, i have been of the impression that most of the bids are going to be "in" several hours before the end time of the auction, so in the last hour or two, there remains NO real incentive or motive to continue to drive the price down.


NOW, whether we witness any kind of "rally" is another story, because questions will arise concerning whether any news that may leak regarding the direction of the bids, whether they were above, below or at existing market price.

[JorgeStolfi]

http://www.rre.com/blog/90-why-we-started-abra

To design Abra we turned to the traditional Hawala model.  (...)  Traditional Hawala’s are generally illegal in the United States as no one is allowed to hold or remit funds on behalf of someone else without being a licensed money transmitter both with FinCen (the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network) and with the US State regulators where the consumers’ reside.  In the case of Abra, however, consumers and Tellers are always holding their own money just as with the standard open source Bitcoin software.  Abra Tellers simply buy and sell digital currency directly to and from other consumers in their neighborhood in small amounts.

I am not a lawyer, but that explanation of why Abra is not a money transmitter is seems totally bogus.  When you use Western Union, you give your cash to one teller here, and another teller over there gives his cash to the other customer.  No cash is actually moving between the two locations, and there may not even be transfers between bank accounts.  Yet WU is definitely a money transmitter...

[Cassius]

At what point can the long-term downtrend be considered 'over'?

Depends who you ask, and what count they have in mind (if they use EW)

Depends also on what is meant by "long term downtrend being over". The old downtrend could be over, but be replaced by another one, maybe less severe (i.e. a different downwards channel). Or it could end, but not be immediately followed by a much more bullish market either (i.e. bottom is in, but it's not rally time yet). There are several ways to look at it...

Anyway, I don't have a fixed target at which I would conclude with certainty that the bear market is over, or let's say, that target is so high, I wouldn't want to wait until we reach it before buying back. That target would be roughly: close above weekly SMA20, supported by volume, possibly followed by consolidation or minor retracement not further than the SMA, followed by a trend reaching for upper weekly BB (high 300s to 400).

Thanks. A little more technical than I was expecting, but still
@coinableS: what would your criteria be?

[KryptoFoo]

Scaling in a bit more long on this dip.


lol at that dip: Oh no! it didn't rally within 5 minutes of the auction close?!? Panic Sell!!! Wait, I didn't wait long enough? Panic buy!!!

[coinableS]

At what point can the long-term downtrend be considered 'over'?

Depends who you ask, and what count they have in mind (if they use EW)

Depends also on what is meant by "long term downtrend being over". The old downtrend could be over, but be replaced by another one, maybe less severe (i.e. a different downwards channel). Or it could end, but not be immediately followed by a much more bullish market either (i.e. bottom is in, but it's not rally time yet). There are several ways to look at it...

Anyway, I don't have a fixed target at which I would conclude with certainty that the bear market is over, or let's say, that target is so high, I wouldn't want to wait until we reach it before buying back. That target would be roughly: close above weekly SMA20, supported by volume, possibly followed by consolidation or minor retracement not further than the SMA, followed by a trend reaching for upper weekly BB (high 300s to 400).

Thanks. A little more technical than I was expecting, but still
@coinableS: what would your criteria be?

 I'd say that we need to above this long term trend line for longer than just a few days before we can say we are out of the bear market. Things look promising but just a $20 swing can put is back in the downtrend.  Just look at May last year, things looked good, but then we went straight back down. If we're still moving up and above the trend line April 15th then I'd be pretty convinced we're out.