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News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 27.0 [Torrent]
 
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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26381112 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
sAt0sHiFanClub
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August 18, 2015, 12:40:58 AM


It's not even that I am against raising the limit. (within reason)  I'm mostly just irked by the fear mongering and panic and desperation-driven FUD coming out of the Hearn/Andresen camp.

Most of the hysterics I've witnessed are from the Blockstream camp.  Most XT posts seem pretty calm, just watching the adoption. Anti forkers are screaming threats and XT-spoofs in an effort to subvert what has already happened.
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August 18, 2015, 12:42:12 AM

I may not post a lot but I've been around for quite some time. It appears to me that the large majority of FUD is coming from the "Core" camp.
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August 18, 2015, 12:54:32 AM

The possible complication is if the community gets stuck in a half-way state, with almost equal mining power on each side.  Then there may be two blockchains, lots of orphaned blocks and branches, etc..  
It was my understanding the XT fork will only take place if 75% of hashpower supports it. I suppose miners could change their minds after the fact, but otherwise a "half-way state" will not result in a fork.

The BitcoinXT version may never conquer 75% fo the hashpower.  Then there will be no fork, and people can continue using either version, indifferently, modulo future upgrades and forks.

Suppose the BitcoinXT does get 75% of the hashpower.  Since BitcoinXT implements a grace period between the 75% vote and the actual lifting of the limit, there will be time to alert all remaining Core players to upgrade, and hopefully they will do so.  Then only the XT branch will survive, and there will be no other complication for the clients.

However, if the Core players are stubborn, the two branches will persist for a while.  There would be

  a "XT" branch, with more PoW, mined by the XT miners and accepted by all XT players and (IIRC) by the SPV Core clients; but also

  a "Core" branch, with less PoW. mined by the Core miners and accepted by full Core nodes only.

If the ratio were to remain 75% XT : 25% Core, thenThe XT branch may start out with one block every ~13 minutes, and the Core branch with one block every ~40 minutes; but eventually their difficulties would readjust so that both will have 1 block every 10 minutes.

Given the way that the way the fork is programmed, every transaction issued will be executed in principle on both chains; so, for most clients, there will seem to be only one coin.  However, by accident or intentionally, a transaction may eventually include fresh coins mined after the fork, and therefore will be valid only on the branch where those coins were mined.  An expert bitcoiner could exploit that trick to sell one version of coins and buy more of the other, or spend each version independently.  However, as soon as the impasse resolves itself, and everybody moves to one of the two branches, the other version of the coins will become useless and worthless.  So one should be wary of buying "minority coins" or accepting them in payment.

But the tide may turn, and instead of everybody moving to XT, some miners may decide to go back to Core.  If the XT slice drops to less than 50%, AFAIK the XT version will NOT reduce the block size limit again.  Then there will be just one persistent chain of 1 MB blocks, but with occasional side branches that are orphaned after a few blocks.   All miners will mine on the persistent branch, but when a XT miner solves and posts an oversize block, a new side branch will start, and it will be mined by XT miners until the Core branch overtakes it.   Full Core nodes will only see the main branch, but full XT nodes as well all SPV clients will see the chain "stutter"  as transactions get confirmed in the side branch, then unconfirmed, then confirmed again.  The closer the hashpower is to a 50:50 split, the longer and more frequent the side branches will be.

In short, the states with mixed XT/Core mining are messy, and not much fun for consumers or traders.  I don't think that there are significant opportunities in them.
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August 18, 2015, 01:02:58 AM

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August 18, 2015, 01:05:21 AM

did the main exchanges in the west and china comment on core/xt fork situation?

i dont think they will run both core and xt when the times comes or?

what a mess zz
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August 18, 2015, 01:09:02 AM


Approx. 8.5% xt nodes, almost there!
...
It's not even that I am against raising the limit. (within reason)  I'm mostly just irked by the fear mongering and panic and desperation-driven FUD coming out of the Hearn/Andresen camp.

And 0% XT blocks mined, which is what really matters.  But that in only 2 days, and there are still 6 months to go before the XT have reason to be embarassed.  

On the other hand, subscriptions to /r/bitcoin have been dropping (now at 171,663, 747 online).
On the other hand /r/bitcoin_uncensored got 1485 subscribers in 1-2 days, and another subreddit whose name cannot be uttered in diesen Heil'gen Hallen got 3,227.
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August 18, 2015, 01:13:42 AM

did the main exchanges in the west and china comment on core/xt fork situation?

i dont think they will run both core and xt when the times comes or?

what a mess zz

most likely there will be no mess cause 75% miners acceptance won't be reached
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August 18, 2015, 02:03:03 AM

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August 18, 2015, 02:19:48 AM

is crypto done??  Huh

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August 18, 2015, 02:22:18 AM


The possible complication is if the community gets stuck in a half-way state, with almost equal mining power on each side.  Then there may be two blockchains, lots of orphaned blocks and branches, etc..  

You don't want to know about that possibility; just pray that it does not happen, and, if it does, just stop issuing transaction until the impasse gets resolved as above.  Even after the critical block, all the unspent coins that were created before that block will remain there, no matter what happens.  


It was my understanding the XT fork will only take place if 75% of hashpower supports it. I suppose miners could change their minds after the fact, but otherwise a "half-way state" will not result in a fork.

Hash power could 'fake support it' i.e. pretend to be XT nodes but not actually fork. This could be a method to ensure a stillborn fork without enough hashpower.
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August 18, 2015, 02:29:56 AM

Hash power could 'fake support it' i.e. pretend to be XT nodes but not actually fork. This could be a method to ensure a stillborn fork without enough hashpower.

Why did the image pass through my mind of a miner vigorously banging his head with a spoon?
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August 18, 2015, 02:35:13 AM

Hash power could 'fake support it' i.e. pretend to be XT nodes but not actually fork. This could be a method to ensure a stillborn fork without enough hashpower.

Why did the image pass through my mind of a miner vigorously banging his head with a spoon?

no idea why.
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August 18, 2015, 02:58:20 AM

1,000 coins just dumped on Finex. Took out a small wall
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August 18, 2015, 03:02:43 AM

Sold all my BTC, CYA!
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August 18, 2015, 03:03:01 AM

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August 18, 2015, 04:03:05 AM

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August 18, 2015, 05:03:01 AM

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August 18, 2015, 05:12:14 AM
Last edit: August 18, 2015, 05:31:45 AM by Fatman3001

Hash power could 'fake support it' i.e. pretend to be XT nodes but not actually fork. This could be a method to ensure a stillborn fork without enough hashpower.

Why did the image pass through my mind of a miner vigorously banging his head with a spoon?

You've been reading too much Gary Larson

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August 18, 2015, 05:24:40 AM

It's interesting to see how much this thread recently changed from price movement discussions to block chain and other discussions.
Coming back to price discussions and bitcoin forecast, we see that the technical analysis methodology works fine to predict bitcoin prices. And with that, speculators and investors can save time. No need to worry about blockchains, hashes, etc. More info here: http://bullbearanalytics.com/bullbear-analytics/
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August 18, 2015, 06:02:55 AM

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