Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[GreekGeek]

...
He just chose the "live to fight another day" option. The attempt of mr Varoufakis to introduce a secondary monetary system via the people's Unique Financial Number has been bombarded by the media and a "noble lawyer" has even attempted to classify him as a national traitor! This EU is a fucking mess. I really hope it dies a horrible death and let the people live their lives.
...

+1   spot on

my view exactly

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[abercrombie]

are we rich yet??  

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[r0ach]

are we rich yet??  

The biggest margin call in Poloniex history happens soon, then afterwards maybe:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1171109.msg12531970#msg12531970

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

are we rich yet??  

The biggest margin call in Poloniex history happens soon, then afterwards maybe:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1171109.msg12531970#msg12531970

100 BTC on Polo is like a fart on the holodeck. Discuss.

[JayJuanGee]

I am in the same boat as you are and IIRC got into the game at the same time as you did.

Don't sweat it for a second and continue accumulating. I know you are sitting on a pretty stash right now and I'd kill for this amount of BTC.

If there is one thing I have to thank the block size debate for is that I barely watch charts or the price anymore. I could care less if we drop to 100$ tomorrow.

Bitcoin is the only prospect left on this side of the earth for monetary sovereignty and unless you are going to drop dead in the next 5 years you are going to need it as we venture into what's likely to be a very turbulent next decade or two. .

I suggest you watch this excellent interview for a fresh perspective on where we are at. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uHXfEJD6DUk

Yes, it feels pretty good to have a decent stash of BTC, even though they are currently in the red....

I watched the youtube video, and I would suggest that Trace is  a very smart guy, but he doesn't really come off as being very objective... and like he seems to be pushing an agenda that is so much money driven that sometimes he seems to be losing some necessary compassion for non-monetary considerations and some times the necessity for collaboration and consensus,... even if some of those practices may NOT always be the most efficient way to go.

Non-monetary considerations are the reason hundreds of millions of dollars are being wasted as we speak chasing pipe-dreams of mainstream retail adoption.

What he advocates is a return to the basics. An introspection into what makes Bitcoin great in the first place and how far we have come into picking the low-hanging fruits that will drive real adoption and growth as an economy.

People tend to forget that this is what Bitcoin is: an economy, and an economy is not built on BTC grocery bags, fancy "killer apps" and "science projects", it is built on capital investment. I remember a talk from him back in early 2014 about how Bitcoin is a storage tank, others often use the term a battery, for capital to pour in from other markets worldwide looking to be stored in & benefit from Bitcoin's unique monetary properties. Some people have seemingly lost track of these properties and are attempting to turn Bitcoin into a payment processing business in which it has no chance of competing with the existing industry incumbents.

We'd all love for Bitcoin to be ubiquitous as a currency but until a majority of people get paid in BTC and hold a considerable amount of their wealth in it these promises can not be realized. For very understandable economic reasons fiat will continue to remain the dominant transactional currency for years to come. Gresham's law will make sure of that and if we are to sell Bitcoin to potential adopters it should be on its merits as a deflationary store-of-value. Leave all that commercial consumerism to inflationary fiat currencies.

"Fiat runs, Bitcoin rests."

Regarding accumulating BTC, there are a variety of levels of BTC that a person could accumulate, and certainly there are several threads speculating about how many BTC a person will need to have accumulated for long term comfort.

When I started buying, I thought that there was going to be NO way that I would be able to accumulate 100 BTC, and that was kind of presuming that BTC prices would spend a lot of time above $1,000 and the train was sooner or later going to come.. and leave everyone in the dust.

The choo choo is taking a while, and surely, at todays, prices it seems in the grasp of a lot of people to be able to accumulate a good quantity of BTC... even amounts approaching 100 BTC.

And at today's prices, accumulating between 10 and 50 BTC seems like it could be in the grasp of a lot more ordinary people.

On the other hand, if a person lives in a struggling situation, then maybe at most s/he would be able to reasonably accumulate 1 to 5 BTC... in these $200 price territories.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[coinableS]

And at today's prices, accumulating between 10 and 50 BTC seems like it could be in the grasp of a lot more ordinary people.

On the other hand, if a person lives in a struggling situation, then maybe at most s/he would be able to reasonably accumulate 1 to 5 BTC... in these $200 price territories.

Your targets are very high IMO. 10 - 50 BTC, $11,000 is more money than I would be comfortable losing if everything went to zero. 10 BTC ~ $2,000 is also a little tough, I wouldn't be happy losing two grand but it wouldn't be catastrophic either. At least just about everyone can dig up $230 and buy at least one coin. So right now is a great time for new comers to join in, buy a coin and stash it away for a few years.

[Fakhoury]

And at today's prices, accumulating between 10 and 50 BTC seems like it could be in the grasp of a lot more ordinary people.

On the other hand, if a person lives in a struggling situation, then maybe at most s/he would be able to reasonably accumulate 1 to 5 BTC... in these $200 price territories.

Your targets are very high IMO. 10 - 50 BTC, $11,000 is more money than I would be comfortable losing if everything went to zero. 10 BTC ~ $2,000 is also a little tough, I wouldn't be happy losing two grand but it wouldn't be catastrophic either. At least just about everyone can dig up $230 and buy at least one coin. So right now is a great time for new comers to join in, buy a coin and stash it away for a few years.

I don't find it high tbh, actually, it depends on the person in more than a term

1. For how long are he willing to froze those BTC
2. How much is he educated about Bitcoin and to what extent he belives in it
3. 50 BTC for a lot of people, is normal, exactly like 10 BTC for you
4. To what extent he wants to be rich, $10K, $100K, $1M or even $100M

[JayJuanGee]

And at today's prices, accumulating between 10 and 50 BTC seems like it could be in the grasp of a lot more ordinary people.

On the other hand, if a person lives in a struggling situation, then maybe at most s/he would be able to reasonably accumulate 1 to 5 BTC... in these $200 price territories.

Your targets are very high IMO. 10 - 50 BTC, $11,000 is more money than I would be comfortable losing if everything went to zero. 10 BTC ~ $2,000 is also a little tough, I wouldn't be happy losing two grand but it wouldn't be catastrophic either. At least just about everyone can dig up $230 and buy at least one coin. So right now is a great time for new comers to join in, buy a coin and stash it away for a few years.

The point I am making, is NOT only about you and your personal circumstances and your view about the future of Bitcoin.

Surely, a person should keep in mind that s/he could lose the BTC whole investment based on his/her view of probabilities.


Let's say for example, a person viewed probabilities like the below chart of probabilities for a 5 year time-frame:
 
less than $200 < 5 % chance
$200 to $300 about 5-10% chance
$300 to $500 30-40% chance
$500 to $1000 30-40% chance
$1000 to $5000 12-18% chance
$5000+ about 5% chance

Someone like this better be putting a whole hell-of-a lot of money into BTC because s/he sees the 5 year time frame to be of about equal chance that BTC will be worth more than $5,000 as it will be below $200.  therefore, the outlook suggests to invest quite a chunk of your investment assets in the direction of BTC.


On the other hand, it appears to me, that you, coinableS, are giving a much greater probability that BTC is going to go to zero.  maybe your 5 year outlook is something like this.

 
less than $10 -   50-60 % chance
$10 to $100 about 20-30% chance
$100 to $200 5-10% chance
$200 to $300 5-10% chance
$300 to $500 <5% chance
$500+ < 2% chance


If your viewpoint is something like the above chart, then what you are saying makes sense; however, I believe that the second chart that I made is overly pessimistic about the future prospects of Bitcoin, even though each person is entitled to his/her own view point and outlook regarding BTC.

My view is probably closer to the first one, and I imagine, coinableS, that your viewpoint is NOT quite what I made it out to be.  If you disclose your viewpoint about probabilities, then at least we will know whether you may be investing in accordance with those viewpoints.


The question about how much a person has to invest into BTC can also be calculated based on how much income stream and then making an assessment of the person's distribution of those investment assets and risk.   I do NOT advocate putting all of the eggs into the BTC basket, though quantities of 1% to 20% could be considered reasonable, depending on a person's view of probabilities (back to the above charts or some variation of such).

[coinableS]

And at today's prices, accumulating between 10 and 50 BTC seems like it could be in the grasp of a lot more ordinary people.

On the other hand, if a person lives in a struggling situation, then maybe at most s/he would be able to reasonably accumulate 1 to 5 BTC... in these $200 price territories.

Your targets are very high IMO. 10 - 50 BTC, $11,000 is more money than I would be comfortable losing if everything went to zero. 10 BTC ~ $2,000 is also a little tough, I wouldn't be happy losing two grand but it wouldn't be catastrophic either. At least just about everyone can dig up $230 and buy at least one coin. So right now is a great time for new comers to join in, buy a coin and stash it away for a few years.

The point I am making, is NOT only about you and your personal circumstances and your view about the future of Bitcoin.

Surely, a person should keep in mind that s/he could lose the BTC whole investment based on his/her view of probabilities.


Let's say for example, a person viewed probabilities like the below chart of probabilities for a 5 year time-frame:
 
less than $200 < 5 % chance
$200 to $300 about 5-10% chance
$300 to $500 30-40% chance
$500 to $1000 30-40% chance
$1000 to $5000 12-18% chance
$5000+ about 5% chance

Someone like this better be putting a whole hell-of-a lot of money into BTC because s/he sees the 5 year time frame to be of about equal chance that BTC will be worth more than $5,000 as it will be below $200.  therefore, the outlook suggests to invest quite a chunk of your investment assets in the direction of BTC.


On the other hand, it appears to me, that you, coinableS, are giving a much greater probability that BTC is going to go to zero.  maybe your 5 year outlook is something like this.

 
less than $10 -   50-60 % chance
$10 to $100 about 20-30% chance
$100 to $200 5-10% chance
$200 to $300 5-10% chance
$300 to $500 <5% chance
$500+ < 2% chance


If your viewpoint is something like the above chart, then what you are saying makes sense; however, I believe that the second chart that I made is overly pessimistic about the future prospects of Bitcoin, even though each person is entitled to his/her own view point and outlook regarding BTC.

I'm far from pessimistic in regards to bitcoins potential success.
The main thing I was pointing out is you mentioned that 10-50BTC is obtainable for a lot more ordinary people and to me that seems very high. I don't believe there are that many people that have $11,000 laying around that they can invest into bitcoin. Your lower target of 10BTC, I can see that being obtainable by a lot of people... I buy a set amount of BTC every month, no matter the exchange rate and this investment approach works better for my finances.

[JayJuanGee]

I'm far from pessimistic in regards to bitcoins potential success.
The main thing I was pointing out is you mentioned that 10-50BTC is obtainable for a lot more ordinary people and to me that seems very high. I don't believe there are that many people that have $11,000 laying around that they can invest into bitcoin. Your lower target of 10BTC, I can see that being obtainable by a lot of people... I buy a set amount of BTC every month, no matter the exchange rate and this investment approach works better for my finances.

I edited my comments before I saw your response.... so please look at my edits in my above post..

I do NOT disagree with you, and that is why I described a range from 10 to 50BTC. 

Of course, people are going to have variable levels of abilities to invest into BTC... and since BTC has been in the $200s territories for nearly 10 months, that makes it more and more reasonable for larger numbers of "ordinary" people to have been able to put money into BTC, even accumulating up to 50 BTC over such time-frame... and if we continue to stay in these $200 price territories , that gives more time to "ordinary" people to accumulate BTC.

You seem to be suggesting that people are going to just plop down $11,000 into BTC, which is likely NOT what I am suggesting would be the case because of difficulties to project short term price direction and maybe questions from a lot of people about whether to plop a bunch of sums into BTC (before trying it out first).  Accordingly, many people (including myself) may feel more comfortable  engaging in a practice similar to yours, and that is to set aside a certain amount of money on a weekly, or monthly basis to decide how much they can afford based on their view of future BTC prospects.  So even with $50 per month, a person could have acquired 2 BTC over the past 10 months.  I am suggesting that people may be able to afford a bit more than $50 a month and some people will be able to invest accordingly, even $500 to $1000 per month based on a pool of money that they may have for investing or that they may want to reallocate into BTC.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[Norway]

Bitcoin is boring as hell right now.
This epic video is just sooo funny, it's the right time to watch it one more time!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4APcgsRdW6w

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[Searing]

side note

21 bitcoin computer (399 usd) is a best seller on Amazon Go figure? Are there so many newbies to BTC that it just like..I don't know pulled some kinda hidden trigger
where they had to get in NOW?

(the ways of crypto are mysterious to me)

here is the link

http://www.amazon.com/Best-Sellers-Computers-Accessories-Computer-Servers/zgbs/pc/11036071/ref=zg_bs_nav_pc_1_pc


Still confused by a 4x the price PI somehow being the end all be all for BTC

[Chef Ramsay]

...
He just chose the "live to fight another day" option. The attempt of mr Varoufakis to introduce a secondary monetary system via the people's Unique Financial Number has been bombarded by the media and a "noble lawyer" has even attempted to classify him as a national traitor! This EU is a fucking mess. I really hope it dies a horrible death and let the people live their lives.
...

+1   spot on

my view exactly

Something big is gonna happen soon in the next month or so and then liftoff to the moon is gonna take place. Are you staying or leaving? I'll buy your coins now or a few days later, this price is your savior unless you got some plans later on.