Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Trouble821]

Are we still in bull trap mode? Or what do you think the next general trend is?

Better question is, when, if ever, is the China/US $15-20 spread going to end.

I'm asking this since the dump stopped. Why is there so much difference? And yes is it going to last or not?
I don't like to know there's too much spread between China and USa/EU. That's not healthy

Don't quote me on this, but I think the Chinese exchanges might only be accepting fiat ACH deposits, and not allowing fiat ACH withdrawals. If it's right then they can only buy on Chinese exchanges, and they have to sell on exchanges in the West. That could explain the price imbalance.

[1714706724]

1714706724

[TReano]

Edit: If you want to make money in Bitcoin or even in the stock market. Wait for a trend to develop and trade off of it in the same direction. Don't try and time the end of bear trends or bull trends.

If you bet the same amount of money each time and take your emotions out of the picture you should be able to win more than you lose and make money overall.

It's a solid strategy, but makes more sense trading the common stuff like EUR/USD. With Bitcoin there's just too many variables that can change the direction fast.

the clearer a trend becomes the more likely it gets that the trend will end...


If it would be that easy to simply buy into something because it goes up trading wouldn't work. If you buy there is always somebody betting on the other side of your trade.

I disagree, but that's what makes a market.

I do buy high sell higher rather than buy low sell high and it's worked for me for years.

The more simple your strategy and the lower number of trades you make the more money you make IMO.

What I mean is, you always buy it from somebody who thinks the price will go in his way... it doesn't mean he has to short it all the way up but still...

Some people here think trading overall is easy just because they were lucky a few times... it's not about being right all the time it's about being consistence in your decisions and not about being right all the time because that is impossible..

In the end it doesn't matter if the price goes up or down. That's what most people here will never understand when trading... Buy and Pray is not a good trading tactic long or short term..

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[gentlemand]

Don't quote me on this, but I think the Chinese exchanges might only be accepting fiat ACH deposits, and not allowing fiat ACH withdrawals. If it's right then they can only buy on Chinese exchanges, and they have to sell on exchanges in the West. That could explain the price imbalance.

I find it mind bending that after all these years there are so few people on this forum who can tell us how Chinese exchanges operate. Presumably there are thousands popping in and out of them every single day yet still we sit here wondering how they do it. They truly are masters of obfuscation.

[Richy_T]

Holliday, I don't think a theoretical 7 TPS (or less than 3, as is apparently the actual case) can support global underground markets. Those are estimated to involve around 1.8 billion people, and account for 15% or so of the global economy. You're still left with only providing settlements for even this limited sector.

Your point about Bitcoin being poorly suited to regular transactions seems valid to me.The blockchain model itself seems inefficient when applied to long timescales and large userbases. Perhaps that's an insurmountable flaw.

Most (as far as I can tell) big blockers are not opposed to side-chains or other off-chain transaction methods. We are mostly opposed to blocking the removal of the temporary and arbitrary restriction. Particularly at a time when interest in Bitcoin is increasing and off-chain solutions aren't available for use.

[r0ach]

Edit: If you want to make money in Bitcoin or even in the stock market. Wait for a trend to develop and trade off of it in the same direction. Don't try and time the end of bear trends or bull trends.

If you bet the same amount of money each time and take your emotions out of the picture you should be able to win more than you lose and make money overall.

It's a solid strategy, but makes more sense trading the common stuff like EUR/USD. With Bitcoin there's just too many variables that can change the direction fast.

the clearer a trend becomes the more likely it gets that the trend will end...


If it would be that easy to simply buy into something because it goes up trading wouldn't work. If you buy there is always somebody betting on the other side of your trade.

I disagree, but that's what makes a market.

I do buy high sell higher rather than buy low sell high and it's worked for me for years.

The more simple your strategy and the lower number of trades you make the more money you make IMO.

What I mean is, you always buy it from somebody who thinks the price will go in his way... it doesn't mean he has to short it all the way up but still...

Some people here think trading overall is easy just because they were lucky a few times... it's not about being right all the time it's about being consistence in your decisions and not about being right all the time because that is impossible..

In the end it doesn't matter if the price goes up or down. That's what most people here will never understand when trading... Buy and Pray is not a good trading tactic long or short term..

You completely left out the reason for why trading really can be easy and free money, because there's always a huge amount of people seeking short term profits.  You just exploit that weakness.  It's why pawn shops exist.  They're willing to hold something longer than 5 minutes to sell higher later.  Even if 99% of people think Bitcoin is going to be worth $10,000 in 2020, it's still going to sell for peanuts now because we're not there yet and they need money now.

[Andre#]

Holliday, I don't think a theoretical 7 TPS (or less than 3, as is apparently the actual case) can support global underground markets. Those are estimated to involve around 1.8 billion people, and account for 15% or so of the global economy. You're still left with only providing settlements for even this limited sector.

Your point about Bitcoin being poorly suited to regular transactions seems valid to me.The blockchain model itself seems inefficient when applied to long timescales and large userbases. Perhaps that's an insurmountable flaw.

Most (as far as I can tell) big blockers are not opposed to side-chains or other of-chain transaction methods. We are mostly opposed to blocking the removal of the temporary and arbitrary restriction. Particularly at a time when interest in Bitcoin is increasing and off-chain solutions aren't available for use.

Hear, hear!

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[ynef]

Meanwhile I have to adjust my downward tunnel less and less steep.

[SnokkomBTC]

Huobi down?

[Richy_T]

So why are you bitching so much? Seems slightly contradictory, to say the least.

It's the "if you don't hear alternative arguments, they don't exist" school of debate. Hence the censorship on /r/bitcoin.

Note that hdbuck isn't just saying that these arguments do not belong on this thread (which really they don't but whatever) but he also tries to get the last word in.

[Tzupy]

China didn't want to go down for a while, but now catches up.

Bearish pattern broken, possible to go up to 420$.

[ssmc2]

China didn't want to go down for a while, but now catches up.

Bearish pattern broken, possible to go up to 420$.

Ya think?

edit: newsflash- there never was a bearish pattern

[billyjoeallen]

Let me put this another way:

I bought bitcoin because it never even occurred to me that it wouldn't scale.  Many new users don't know now that it doesn't scale, but when we run up against the hard limit and your beloved transaction fee market kicks off, everyone will know and nobody likes paying high fees for something they are used to getting nearly free.

The investors/speculators are the only reason this thing works at all.  You are taking us for granted.  We do not exist simply to facilitate drug deals.  WE buy the coins. WE supply the liquidity. If you don't give us what we want, we invest elsewhere.  Without us, nobody pays the miners and everything grinds to a halt.

I  tend to agree, as more and more users become aware that Bitcoin doesn't scale, combined with frustrating user experiences of txs getting stuck, and txs becoming more and more expensive, for sure a part of the users will turn away from Bitcoin. It will make the price drop, since most of it comes from the future expectations of Bitcoin.

Of course, if LN is up and running before it plays out like this, and it doesn't degrade the user experience, Bitcoin won't fall off the cliff.  However, the Core client devs take quite a risk by taking Bitcoin hostage like this. I know I'll vote with my feet. Once I see evidence of the downward spiral, I'll sell my stash. I bet I won't be the only one, and the option of another cryptocurrency taking over becomes a very real possibility.

Because one thing is sure, cryptocurrencies are here to stay.

This discussion is getting annoying. Of course people who pay no transaction fees are getting stuck, but that is not a cause for greater blocksizes. You think you have the power because you buy bitcoins? You do NOT pay the miners, the system does. It's actually your attitude that is pretty arrogant, not the other way around. Do you know what would happen when the miners decide to cut back their hashing power? I do. VERY few blocks found for a LONG time! You have to realize that mining is not cheap, and miners do require those fees more and more since block rewards diminish. https://blockchain.info/de/charts/network-deficit  
The times when people were willing to get negative balances for their mining are long gone, the market regulates itself.

Are you retarded? What is the mental deficiency here? Ok, how about basic math, that should be uncontroversial, right?  A block reward of 25 BTC with BTC trading at $300 or a block reward of 12.5 BTC with BTC trading at $800----which is greater, Einstein?? 

Which is greater, 10 xaction fees of $1 each or 50 xaction fees of $0.25?

WE PAY THE MINERS BECAUSE WE DETERMINE THE PRICE WE ARE WILLING TO BUY AT. Why is it so hard to get such a simple concept into your thick motherfucking skulls?

The miner compensation argument for smaller blocks is complete and utter bullshit. If you can't see that immediately, then you are either an idiot or a liar.

[koryu]

this could be gentlemen

[Trouble821]

Huobi down?

I can't find any trades on Huobi for the last 15 minutes. It's probably down as there was a spike on all the other exchanges in the last few minutes. The Huobi traders would have reacted to that if it had been up. Maybe the DDOS attacks on exchanges have started again.

[ssmc2]

Huobi down?

I can't find any trades on Huobi for the last 15 minutes. It's probably down as there was a spike on all the other exchanges in the last few minutes. The Huobi traders would have reacted to that if it had been up. Maybe the DDOS attacks on exchanges have started again.

That would not be gentlemen

[billyjoeallen]

My analysis is much simpler:

1)

If MMM is a huge part of this recent rally = DOWN
If MMM is not a huge part of this rally = UP

2)

If block sized limit solved in DEC = WAY UP
If not = DOWN

1+2 go positive = short term MOON SHOT

if both negative = DOWN

Tracking the price of this sized market from charts and trying to read/fortune tell upcoming moves = waste of time.

I agree with your analysis.

[billyjoeallen]

I'm sure it's beautiful, but I would guess most of the Americans and Europeans don't move there because of your enlightened governance.  They move there DESPITE the governance.

Well, some come here BECAUSE of the governance:

Ronnie Biggs

William Frederick Koch

Josef Mengele

 

It's good that you can keep your sense of humor about it. I wouldn't know whether to cry or run like hell.

[Fatman3001]

Are you [ehem..]? What is the mental deficiency here? Ok, how about basic math, that should be uncontroversial, right?  A block reward of 25 BTC with BTC trading at $300 or a block reward of 12.5 BTC with BTC trading at $800----which is greater, Einstein??

WE PAY THE MINERS BECAUSE WE DETERMINE THE PRICE WE ARE WILLING TO BUY AT. Why is it so hard to get such a simple concept into your [ahem,,,] [..cough..] skulls?

Jeebus, BJA!

I've never seen you like this.