Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

we're going to need some big event to justify the rise, blocksize limit / scalability being solved would probably be enough.

You really think we can scale tho? I'm starting to see Bitcoin as a kind of flawed masterpiece. Is it fixable?

[1714702430]

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[brg444]

What if chinese exchanges are the ones entertaining the MMM red herring to explain the "high activity"?

Dress it with some wash trading to cover up the exact volume and it makes for a nice cover for the actual currency control escape going on.

You can't possibly take Bobby Lee on his word when he pretends there's none of that stuff going on, only an idiot would say otherwise in this position.

It would also make sense to "pause the operations" for awhile to allow things to cool off.

[Cconvert2G36]

we're going to need some big event to justify the rise, blocksize limit / scalability being solved would probably be enough.

You really think we can scale tho? I'm starting to see Bitcoin as a kind of flawed masterpiece. Is it fixable?

I think this is all mostly posturing from two political camps. Neither trying to concede anything in an effort to determine the trajectory of a compromise. Hard to get "consensus" on a fix for something that's not broken, yet.

[JorgeStolfi]

The Economist predicts transactions could take over an hour by early next year if there's no change. Are they wrong?

That is nonsense.  Someone with no idea of how things work just tossed a number.

Once the average traffic (transactions issued per day by all users) exceeds the effective capacity of the network (about 240'000 tx/day, 2.8 tx/s), there will be a steadily growing backlog of unconfirmed transactions.  There will not be a fixed delay: the average delay will keep increasing, day after day.

If the traffic were to be 300'000 tx/day (3.5 tx/s), for example, the backlog would grow at the rate of ~60'000 tx per day (~0.7 tx/s).  The transactions received in one day will take 300'000/240'000*24 = 30 hours to be confirmed; so the average delay for 1-confirmation will keep growing by 6 hours every day.  

If the transactions were serviced first-in, first-out, then all transactions sent in the same hour would be delayed by about the same (but always growing) number of hours.   Since the processing priority is largely determined by the fees paid, however, some transactions may be processed in the next block, independently of the backlog, while others will be delayed even more than they would with the fair policy.   However, there will be no way to estimate the fee needed to get your transaction confirmed in the next block, or within X hours; because that depends on the fees of transactions that will be issued before your confirmation -- by clients who will want their transactions to be processed before yours.

But that regime cannot last for long, of course.  Clients will give up on bitcoin, until traffic drops below the capacity -- say to 220'000 tx/day (~2.6 tx/s). Then, part of the time, there will be no backlog: all transactions will confirm in the next block, even if they pay the minimal fee.  However, the traffic varies a lot depending on time of day and day of the week.  During peak hours and peak days, the traffic will be quite a bit more than 2.8 tx/s. Then there will be a temporary backlog, lasting several hours, that will be cleared slowly when the traffic subsides.  

As before, the backlog and the average confirmation delay will keep growing while the traffic exceeds the capacity.  The delay for your transaction, specifically, will depend on its fee, on the transactions that are waiting in the queue, and on the transactions that will be issued by other clients until your transaction is confirmed.  On some occasions, many transactions may get delayed by several hours, perhaps by a day or two.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

we're going to need some big event to justify the rise, blocksize limit / scalability being solved would probably be enough.

You really think we can scale tho? I'm starting to see Bitcoin as a kind of flawed masterpiece. Is it fixable?

I think this is all mostly posturing from two political camps. Neither trying to concede anything in an effort to determine the trajectory of a compromise. Hard to get "consensus" on a fix for something that's not broken, yet.

Fair enough. But one camp seems to sincerely believe in the urgency of the situation....

The Economist predicts transactions could take over an hour by early next year if there's no change. Are they wrong?

That is nonsense.  Someone with no idea of how things work just tossed a number.

Once the average traffic (transactions issued per day by all users) exceeds the effective capacity of the network (about 240'000 tx/day, 2.8 tx/s), there will be a steadily growing backlog of unconfirmed transactions.  There will not be a fixed delay: the average delay will keep increasing, day after day.

If the traffic were to be 300'000 tx/day (3.5 tx/s), for example, the backlog would grow at the rate of ~60'000 tx per day (~0.7 tx/s).  The transactions received in one day will take 300'000/240'000*24 = 30 hours to be confirmed; so the average delay for 1-confirmation will keep growing by 6 hours every day.   

If the transactions were serviced first-in, first-out, then all transactions sent in the same hour would be delayed by about the same (but always growing) number of hours.   Since the processing priority is largely determined by the fees paid, however, some transactions may be processed in the next block, independently of the backlog, while others will be delayed even more than they would with the fair policy.   However, there will be no way to estimate the fee needed to get your transaction confirmed in the next block, or within X hours; because that depends on the fees of transactions that will be issued in the next 10 minutes -- by clients who will want their transactions to be processed before yours.

But that regime cannot last for long, of course.  Clients will give up on bitcoin, until traffic drops below the capacity -- say to 220'000 tx/day (~2.6 tx/s). Then, part of the time, there will be no backlog: all transactions will confirm in the next block, even if they pay the minimal fee.  However, the traffic varies a lot depending on time of day and day of the week.  During peak hours and peak days, the traffic will be quite a bit more than 2.8 tx/s. Then there will be a temporary backlog, lasting several hours, that will be cleared slowly when the traffic subsides. 

As before, the backlog and the average confirmation delay will keep growing while the traffic exceeds the capacity.  The delay for your transaction, specifically, will depend on its fee, on the transactions that are waiting in the queue, and on the transactions that will be issued by other clients until your transaction is confirmed.  On some occasions, many transactions may get delayed by several hours, perhaps by a day or two.

Like that sounds darned urgent, that.

[Karpeles]

Wouldn't there be a conflict between that FOIA request and the data protection act? Any personally identifiable information is covered by the data protection act. The bidders have the right to remain anonymous if they wish to. Regular auctions are sometimes won by anonymous bidders, and they get to remain anonymous.

I am not a lawyer, but as a citizen of Brazil I consider any "property" of the Brazilian government to be my property (and of the other 205,046,327 Brazilians).  So I should have the right to know who my government sold my property to -- and especially how much the guy paid for it.  That should trump his right to privacy.

You indeed need some law lessons.

Public does not equals from everyone except as a figure of speech

[adamstgBit]

we're going to need some big event to justify the rise, blocksize limit / scalability being solved would probably be enough.

You really think we can scale tho? I'm starting to see Bitcoin as a kind of flawed masterpiece. Is it fixable?

I think this is all mostly posturing from two political camps. Neither trying to concede anything in an effort to determine the trajectory of a compromise. Hard to get "consensus" on a fix for something that's not broken, yet.

this is fairly informative, https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Scalability
as is, bitcoin sorta scales, with some optimizations it can scale no problem.
the idea that everyone should be able to run a full node on any internet connection with crap computer might have to be abandoned tho.

[Cconvert2G36]

What if chinese exchanges are the ones entertaining the MMM red herring to explain the "high activity"?

Dress it with some wash trading to cover up the exact volume and it makes for a nice cover for the actual currency control escape going on.

You can't possibly take Bobby Lee on his word when he pretends there's none of that stuff going on, only an idiot would say otherwise in this position.

It would also make sense to "pause the operations" for awhile to allow things to cool off.

So the MMM demand story, and wash trades, are just trying to cover up massive capital flight? Uber bull thrusters engaged then?

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=%22MMM+pays%22&search_sort=video_date_uploaded

Watch for when these stop. And don an asbestos suit for the Hell that awaits you.

(how's that, stolfi?)

[JorgeStolfi]

Any property belonging to the Government of Brazil rightly belongs to you? That must be a magical place to live.

That is how *I* see it, and what the Constitution is supposed to say.  That is how you should see it in your country too. 

Unfortunately, as in your country, there are many, many government officials who steal my property, or mismanage it, or deny my rights to it.  Of course I resent it.  I try to fight those abuses by protesting and voting, and hope that enough other Brazilians will do the same.

I guess housing isn't really an issue.

A large majority of us Brazilians have agreed to let the government use some of our common property for certain uses, like schools, roads, parks, etc.  I approve such arrangements in principle; in some of those that I disapprove, I am willing to submit to the majority; and in some others I protest and vote agains, as above.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Any property belonging to the Government of Brazil rightly belongs to you? That must be a magical place to live.

That is how *I* see it, and what the Constitution is supposed to say.  That is how you should see it in your country too.  

Unfortunately, as in your country, there are many, many government officials who steal my property, or mismanage it, or deny my rights to it.  Of course I resent it.  I try to fight those abuses by protesting and voting, and hope that enough other Brazilians will do the same.

I guess housing isn't really an issue.

A large majority of us Brazilians have agreed to let the government use some of our common property for certain uses, like schools, roads, parks, etc.  I approve such arrangements in principle; in some of those that I disapprove, I am willing to submit to the majority; and in some others I protest and vote agains, as above.

I can't really argue with leanings I agree with; I just don't see how that would extend to who took final ownership of a bunch of auctioned-off butts. You want a list of who bought what coke-boats, too?

[Cconvert2G36]

Like that sounds darned urgent, that.

When you see sustained runs approaching 2.7 or so tps, then you have darned urgency.

https://tradeblock.com/bitcoin/

Edit: hopefully we'll coast for a couple months

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Like that sounds darned urgent, that.

When you see sustained runs approaching 2.7 or so tps, then you have darned urgency.

https://tradeblock.com/bitcoin/

Edit: hopefully we'll coast for a couple months

Ok let's go.

[billyjoeallen]

Any property belonging to the Government of Brazil rightly belongs to you? That must be a magical place to live.

That is how *I* see it, and what the Constitution is supposed to say.  That is how you should see it in your country too. 

Unfortunately, as in your country, there are many, many government officials who steal my property, or mismanage it, or deny my rights to it.  Of course I resent it.  I try to fight those abuses by protesting and voting, and hope that enough other Brazilians will do the same.

I guess housing isn't really an issue.

A large majority of us Brazilians have agreed to let the government use some of our common property for certain uses, like schools, roads, parks, etc.  I approve such arrangements in principle; in some of those that I disapprove, I am willing to submit to the majority; and in some others I protest and vote agains, as above.

Howz that protesting and voting working out for ya, Prof?

[adamstgBit]

The Economist predicts transactions could take over an hour by early next year if there's no change. Are they wrong?

That is nonsense.  Someone with no idea of how things work just tossed a number.

Once the average traffic (transactions issued per day by all users) exceeds the effective capacity of the network (about 240'000 tx/day, 2.8 tx/s), there will be a steadily growing backlog of unconfirmed transactions.  There will not be a fixed delay: the average delay will keep increasing, day after day.

If the traffic were to be 300'000 tx/day (3.5 tx/s), for example, the backlog would grow at the rate of ~60'000 tx per day (~0.7 tx/s).  The transactions received in one day will take 300'000/240'000*24 = 30 hours to be confirmed; so the average delay for 1-confirmation will keep growing by 6 hours every day.  

If the transactions were serviced first-in, first-out, then all transactions sent in the same hour would be delayed by about the same (but always growing) number of hours.   Since the processing priority is largely determined by the fees paid, however, some transactions may be processed in the next block, independently of the backlog, while others will be delayed even more than they would with the fair policy.   However, there will be no way to estimate the fee needed to get your transaction confirmed in the next block, or within X hours; because that depends on the fees of transactions that will be issued before your confirmation -- by clients who will want their transactions to be processed before yours.

But that regime cannot last for long, of course.  Clients will give up on bitcoin, until traffic drops below the capacity -- say to 220'000 tx/day (~2.6 tx/s). Then, part of the time, there will be no backlog: all transactions will confirm in the next block, even if they pay the minimal fee.  However, the traffic varies a lot depending on time of day and day of the week.  During peak hours and peak days, the traffic will be quite a bit more than 2.8 tx/s. Then there will be a temporary backlog, lasting several hours, that will be cleared slowly when the traffic subsides.  

As before, the backlog and the average confirmation delay will keep growing while the traffic exceeds the capacity.  The delay for your transaction, specifically, will depend on its fee, on the transactions that are waiting in the queue, and on the transactions that will be issued by other clients until your transaction is confirmed.  On some occasions, many transactions may get delayed by several hours, perhaps by a day or two.

the backlog theory is not right, what will end up happening is that TX with 0 fees will never get confirmed ( in which case they never actually leave your wallet ) TX fees will go up such that the TX / sec is below the 1MB limit, if we get a surge of TX demand that will only push fess higher again making low fee TX never confirm. so basically there will never be an ever growing backlog, only ever growing fees.

at one point tho the high fees will start to affect TX demand negatively ( no one wants to use bitcoin any more because its so expensive ) and at that point bitcoin growth has maxed out due to technological limitations ( or self imposed nonsensically 1MB block limit )

of course higher fees will always "affect TX demand negatively" what i mean to say it TX fee will stop simply weeding out low value TX from users, and start weeding groups of users all together.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

The Economist predicts transactions could take over an hour by early next year if there's no change. Are they wrong?

That is nonsense.  Someone with no idea of how things work just tossed a number.

Once the average traffic (transactions issued per day by all users) exceeds the effective capacity of the network (about 240'000 tx/day, 2.8 tx/s), there will be a steadily growing backlog of unconfirmed transactions.  There will not be a fixed delay: the average delay will keep increasing, day after day.

If the traffic were to be 300'000 tx/day (3.5 tx/s), for example, the backlog would grow at the rate of ~60'000 tx per day (~0.7 tx/s).  The transactions received in one day will take 300'000/240'000*24 = 30 hours to be confirmed; so the average delay for 1-confirmation will keep growing by 6 hours every day.  

If the transactions were serviced first-in, first-out, then all transactions sent in the same hour would be delayed by about the same (but always growing) number of hours.   Since the processing priority is largely determined by the fees paid, however, some transactions may be processed in the next block, independently of the backlog, while others will be delayed even more than they would with the fair policy.   However, there will be no way to estimate the fee needed to get your transaction confirmed in the next block, or within X hours; because that depends on the fees of transactions that will be issued before your confirmation -- by clients who will want their transactions to be processed before yours.

But that regime cannot last for long, of course.  Clients will give up on bitcoin, until traffic drops below the capacity -- say to 220'000 tx/day (~2.6 tx/s). Then, part of the time, there will be no backlog: all transactions will confirm in the next block, even if they pay the minimal fee.  However, the traffic varies a lot depending on time of day and day of the week.  During peak hours and peak days, the traffic will be quite a bit more than 2.8 tx/s. Then there will be a temporary backlog, lasting several hours, that will be cleared slowly when the traffic subsides.  

As before, the backlog and the average confirmation delay will keep growing while the traffic exceeds the capacity.  The delay for your transaction, specifically, will depend on its fee, on the transactions that are waiting in the queue, and on the transactions that will be issued by other clients until your transaction is confirmed.  On some occasions, many transactions may get delayed by several hours, perhaps by a day or two.

the backlog theory is not right, what will end up happening is that TX with 0 fees will never get confirmed ( in which case they never actually leave your wallet ) TX fees will go up such that the TX / sec is below the 1MB limit, if we get a surge of TX demand that will only push fess higher again making low fee TX never confirm. so basically there will never be an ever growing backlog, only ever growing fees.

at one point tho the high fees will start to affect TX demand negatively ( no one wants to use bitcoin any more because its so expensive ) and at that point bitcoin growth has maxed out due to technological limitations ( or self imposed nonsensically 1MB block limit )

Well by that logic I think tx fees can go a lot higher. The world might want to get on this boat. Tickets will just have to go up.

[hdbuck]

The Economist predicts transactions could take over an hour by early next year if there's no change. Are they wrong?

That is nonsense.  Someone with no idea of how things work just tossed a number.

Once the average traffic (transactions issued per day by all users) exceeds the effective capacity of the network (about 240'000 tx/day, 2.8 tx/s), there will be a steadily growing backlog of unconfirmed transactions.  There will not be a fixed delay: the average delay will keep increasing, day after day.

If the traffic were to be 300'000 tx/day (3.5 tx/s), for example, the backlog would grow at the rate of ~60'000 tx per day (~0.7 tx/s).  The transactions received in one day will take 300'000/240'000*24 = 30 hours to be confirmed; so the average delay for 1-confirmation will keep growing by 6 hours every day.  

If the transactions were serviced first-in, first-out, then all transactions sent in the same hour would be delayed by about the same (but always growing) number of hours.   Since the processing priority is largely determined by the fees paid, however, some transactions may be processed in the next block, independently of the backlog, while others will be delayed even more than they would with the fair policy.   However, there will be no way to estimate the fee needed to get your transaction confirmed in the next block, or within X hours; because that depends on the fees of transactions that will be issued before your confirmation -- by clients who will want their transactions to be processed before yours.

But that regime cannot last for long, of course.  Clients will give up on bitcoin, until traffic drops below the capacity -- say to 220'000 tx/day (~2.6 tx/s). Then, part of the time, there will be no backlog: all transactions will confirm in the next block, even if they pay the minimal fee.  However, the traffic varies a lot depending on time of day and day of the week.  During peak hours and peak days, the traffic will be quite a bit more than 2.8 tx/s. Then there will be a temporary backlog, lasting several hours, that will be cleared slowly when the traffic subsides.  

As before, the backlog and the average confirmation delay will keep growing while the traffic exceeds the capacity.  The delay for your transaction, specifically, will depend on its fee, on the transactions that are waiting in the queue, and on the transactions that will be issued by other clients until your transaction is confirmed.  On some occasions, many transactions may get delayed by several hours, perhaps by a day or two.

the backlog theory is not right, what will end up happening is that TX with 0 fees will never get confirmed ( in which case they never actually leave your wallet ) TX fees will go up such that the TX / sec is below the 1MB limit, if we get a surge of TX demand that will only push fess higher again making low fee TX never confirm. so basically there will never be an ever growing backlog, only ever growing fees.

at one point tho the high fees will start to affect TX demand negatively ( no one wants to use bitcoin any more because its so expensive ) and at that point bitcoin growth has maxed out due to technological limitations ( or self imposed nonsensically 1MB block limit )

Well by that logic I think tx fees can go a lot higher. The world might want to get on this boat. Tickets will just have to go up.

+1. seems we are finally getting somewhere.

[billyjoeallen]

The Economist predicts transactions could take over an hour by early next year if there's no change. Are they wrong?

That is nonsense.  Someone with no idea of how things work just tossed a number.

Once the average traffic (transactions issued per day by all users) exceeds the effective capacity of the network (about 240'000 tx/day, 2.8 tx/s), there will be a steadily growing backlog of unconfirmed transactions.  There will not be a fixed delay: the average delay will keep increasing, day after day.

If the traffic were to be 300'000 tx/day (3.5 tx/s), for example, the backlog would grow at the rate of ~60'000 tx per day (~0.7 tx/s).  The transactions received in one day will take 300'000/240'000*24 = 30 hours to be confirmed; so the average delay for 1-confirmation will keep growing by 6 hours every day.  

If the transactions were serviced first-in, first-out, then all transactions sent in the same hour would be delayed by about the same (but always growing) number of hours.   Since the processing priority is largely determined by the fees paid, however, some transactions may be processed in the next block, independently of the backlog, while others will be delayed even more than they would with the fair policy.   However, there will be no way to estimate the fee needed to get your transaction confirmed in the next block, or within X hours; because that depends on the fees of transactions that will be issued before your confirmation -- by clients who will want their transactions to be processed before yours.

But that regime cannot last for long, of course.  Clients will give up on bitcoin, until traffic drops below the capacity -- say to 220'000 tx/day (~2.6 tx/s). Then, part of the time, there will be no backlog: all transactions will confirm in the next block, even if they pay the minimal fee.  However, the traffic varies a lot depending on time of day and day of the week.  During peak hours and peak days, the traffic will be quite a bit more than 2.8 tx/s. Then there will be a temporary backlog, lasting several hours, that will be cleared slowly when the traffic subsides.  

As before, the backlog and the average confirmation delay will keep growing while the traffic exceeds the capacity.  The delay for your transaction, specifically, will depend on its fee, on the transactions that are waiting in the queue, and on the transactions that will be issued by other clients until your transaction is confirmed.  On some occasions, many transactions may get delayed by several hours, perhaps by a day or two.

That would be an ideal time for someone to launch a competing coin.  I figure it would take <$1 Billion to overcome Bitcoin's first mover advantage and then the banksters will just keep running the world as if we never existed. 

[Cconvert2G36]

No benefit of the periodic table, and a mid curve of the distribution scheme compensation. The block reward is what is supposed to fuel the growth that will sustain miners as it approaches 0. 12.5 btc is not 0.

[Karpeles]

Big media is asking again why the price of BTC is rising again

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-the-price-of-bitcoin-is-skyrocketing-again-153559170.html#

bullish?