Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Jacksp]

I love the new poll haha

Question:   price is ____ price will _____
 high, rise higher
 low, rise
 high, drop
 low, drop lower

[1714746333]

1714746333

[1714746333]

1714746333

[lottery248]

i would wish to go short for now, $400. i am not sure it will be.
let's see what happen if it did.

[chesthing]

i would wish to go short for now, $400. i am not sure it will be.
let's see what happen if it did.

Yeah, probably should have done that last night.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Arbitrage is to place what speculation is to time.
I don't see how the method you have outlined would work: you don't level communicating vessels obstructing the connection.

Suppose that you have 10 BTC and 5000 USD in each of the exchanges X and Y. Suppose that the price has been rock solid at 500, with plenty of liquidity and tiny spread, in both exchanges.  Your total worth is 20 BTC and 10000 USD.

Price drops in exchange X, and you see an ask of 1 BTC at 490 there.  You buy 1 BTC at X for 490 and sell 1 BTC at Y for 500.  Suppose that it raises the price at X back to 500 BTC.

You now have 11 BTC and 4510 USD at X,  9 BTC and 5500 USD at Y.  Your total worth is now 20 BTC and 10010 USD -- you made a 10 USD profit.

That is the basic idea.  But you can buy and sell different amounts of BTC at each exchange.  If you buy where the price is lower and sell where it is higher, you can increase your net worth and push the prices towards equality.  Note that you don't need to transfer BTC or dollars, as long as you have reserves at both ends.

[Post-Cosmic]

Over the rally from $350 to $425, the bid walls on bfx steadily grew from 35k to 41k. Now suddenly they are down to 31k. Speculations?

..Omg!!!!!!!!!!!!!  You're =BACK= !!!!

 /bow

How has FX and/or stock trading treated you for these past 18 months' hiatus..? ;p

Still prepping for the apocalypse..? Hehe

[Post-Cosmic]

If my premise is correct -- that bitcoin always behaves in the opposite of manner of what I expect -- I believe we'll stay at 450 for a day and then climb to 500 over the 3 days.

I don't see us going sub <400 this month, but hope we do though, as I'm all fiat and sold right now.

We are up 8.6% in the last 24 hours. I'm opening a short position. This thing is gonna dip. I will buy back in at 435, or maybe 420.

or you'll close your short at 475 and buy back in 485.

Dall bulltardism, always a treat.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[Post-Cosmic]

Don't you think we'll re-test the ~$50 price beforehand?

doubtfull,the 50$ floor is not imaginary.


it all comes down to psychology
sellers don't want to sell below 50$
buyers are happy to buy tons at 50$

... RALLY!

Very true. People these days just want to make money, and other people want to save money. What has this world become?

This is siq necromastery.. Amazing <3

[JayJuanGee]

And china shit theirs pants It was foreseeable

Was it China? It looks to me like the heavy volume during the dump was on the USD exchanges (well, stamp and finex) - on the CNY exchanges volume didn't seem to change during the dump.

It's probably just Christmas. I've been waiting for the price to climb as high as it can before about the 20th so I can sell and use any realized profit for presents. I expect small batches of sell offs between now and the 24th on USD exchanges will continue to happen as people find things they want to give as gifts.

ridiculous.... at this point in bitcoin, price is not driven in any meaningful way by these kinds of small seasonal consumption factors

What an idiot. Small seasonal consumption! ROFL  The U.S. alone spends 3.9 trillion dollars on Christmas. The entire Bitcoin market cap is only 6.5 billion. lol

Yes, and your elaboration illustrates exactly that bitcoin is not playing much of a role in those transaction.

You can believe what you want, but you have a tendency to share those silly ass ideas in order to attempt to spread some bearish FUD.

On the other hand, I look forward to the day when bitcoin becomes a bigger factor in the consumer spending world because bitcoin's infrastructure is certainly expanding to a great degree in order to allow for more mass consumer awareness of bitcoin.

[billyjoeallen]

Let's see if bulls can do better next time. I made a little money on the failed attempt at $445 so now You will have to buy even more, but you might do it. Just don't pump to over $3,000 or I'll get a margin call. HAHAHAHA.

Scale or die.

[spooderman]

legit wall at 450

[JayJuanGee]

Let's see if bulls can do better next time. I made a little money on the failed attempt at $445 so now You will have to buy even more, but you might do it. Just don't pump to over $3,000 or I'll get a margin call. HAHAHAHA.

Scale or die.

You are ridiculous, or do you just get pleasure in being a contrarian.

You seem smart enough to recognize that currently BTC general price direction is UP.

Sure you can make a few dollars or BTC here and there by shorting, but really we are going up... and don't miss the train while you are shorting all the way to $3,000 $5,000.

On the other hand, I may short a little at $3k, too.   

[Post-Cosmic]

I have an immensely important question I want to ask since I was just told something, why does the price move the way it does?it goes up by 10-20$s then completely stops. And how much does it take to make it to 10$s plus?

Looking at the daily price and volume at Huobi, OKCoin, and other exchanges, I can see

(1) A gradual "exponential" increase in volume and price from about 2015-09-20 to the peak (~3350 CNY) on 11-04;
(2) A tumbling price and volume drop between 11-04 and 11-24 (down to ~2050 CNY);
(3) A very sharp increase in volume to a record high value on 11-24, that persisted until now; and a corresponding rally in price, by a rapid steady rise broken by several large jumps (to ~3150 CNY).

There was a partial crash today, to ~2800 CNY, but it is not clear yet how it will end.

There seems to be no certain explanation for these moves.  (And it seems that no one wants to find out...)

My best candidate explanation for (1) is still the bitcoin-based MMM ponzi and copycats, mostly in China; amplified by day-trader speculation.  The dates seem to match, the ponzi can easily move that amount of money, and the gradual "exponential" growth is consistent with the demand for bitcoins spreading among a new population of  by "infection".

The crash (2) would then be the speculators dumping their coins when they realized that the primary demand had leveled off.   Perhaps the ponzi saturated by 11-04, or participants ("lucky victims" and organizers) started to sell the bitcoins that they received.  

The new rally (3) could be due to the same cause as (1); however, considering the much higher volume and the way it grew (suddenly rather than gradually), the cause is probably different.

Rally (3) may have been due to the crackdown by the Chinese government on the use of the Chinese state credit/debit card (UnionPay) to export cash for gambling and other purposes.  The abuse seemed to be pervasive in Macau, the Las Vegas of China, which has a somewhat independent economy (like Hong Kong). Reports say that Mainland gamblers would go to Macau, pretend to buy merchandise at local pawn shops with the card, then pretend to return it for a cash refund (minus the shop's commission).  That way they could bypass the card's limit on cash withdrawal.  If that loophole was suddenly closed, it seems possible that the gamblers switched en masse to bitcoin.  

A sudden jump in the price must be due to single person buying or selling a large amount of bitcoin in a short time interval.  If the above explanation is correct, those may be exceptionally wealthy people trying to move their money out, or perhaps clandestine money transmitters providing that service for many smaller clients.  Either way, the jumps seem to indicate that the price is determined by a relatively small number of players.

Your putting too much thought into this. People had a whole year to accumulate bitcoins in the $2xx range, whenever the price is in the mid $400s they can sell and double their money, and for every coin they sell they end up with a free one. It's gonna be a rough road to get past $500 because of this, but I think it will happen.

No, Jorge's analysis is spot-on.

One simply has to eye those sharp dumps from $490's to $320 a month back, & the $485-400 dump from last night, to see it is clearly a few players, and still, in late 2015, 2 years after China's BTC involvement starting in 2013, the prices remain completely driven by chinese speculation, russian/chinese ponzi activity, & capital controls paradigms.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[Post-Cosmic]

Let's see if bulls can do better next time. I made a little money on the failed attempt at $445 so now You will have to buy even more, but you might do it. Just don't pump to over $3,000 or I'll get a margin call. HAHAHAHA.

Scale or die.

My hero, right next to the other swampland legend <3

You are ridiculous, or do you just get pleasure in being a contrarian.

You seem smart enough to recognize that currently BTC general price direction is UP.

Sure you can make a few dollars or BTC here and there by shorting, but really we are going up... and don't miss the train while you are shorting all the way to $3,000 $5,000.

On the other hand, I may short a little at $3k, too.    

We don't merely derive satisfaction being contrarians, as well as mocking fee-market-deluded miner-biased networth-snobbish small-blockians.

We also get trading profit.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[bitebits]

When the network gets near hitting capacity of ~220,000 tx per day, the rally gets its head lopped off... coincidence?

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions

Any future rally will be meaningfully constrained by this "safety feature". 

That does not makes sense, since it would prevent bitcoins being send to the exchanges (which is of course not the case, since the fee will be set slightly higher to get access to the priority lane). The opposite would be true if your theory would be the case.

[DavieT1337]

Coin



Explanation

does the increse of the red number mean the askin is higher ?
Would be great to get a clear view over the Finex analystics you post over there.
I would like to know what the Spread says to you?

Wouold be great to ehar about

regards
DavieT1337

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation