Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[oda.krell]

It's not just the dump, it's the paper thin orderbook I was warning about yesterday. During most of the rally, the bfx order book went up from 30k to 42k and then over the past 3 days it has gone back DOWN from 42k to 28k even BEFORE the dump.

second leg of the rally has been on thin-ish orderbook and at least dubious volume ever since its beginning, Nov 25/26. Not even sure if that's a clear sign of an unsustainable trend in the longer run, as volume has a habit of kicking in with a delay sometimes. Either way, that ~$380 test I've been harping on about in the past week looks a bit more likely again.

[1714469689]

1714469689

[Hyperjacked]

And china shit theirs pants It was foreseeable

Was it China? It looks to me like the heavy volume during the dump was on the USD exchanges (well, stamp and finex) - on the CNY exchanges volume didn't seem to change during the dump.

It's probably just Christmas. I've been waiting for the price to climb as high as it can before about the 20th so I can sell and use any realized profit for presents. I expect small batches of sell offs between now and the 24th on USD exchanges will continue to happen as people find things they want to give as gifts.

Christmas dont dump 80 000 BTC in 3 min.

Nothing goes up forever and it's the composite operators MO...look at the last dump that took some ppl by surprise. Ask Torque he had his finger on the pulse on the last dump! He has been wrong ever since but...

[QuestionAuthority]

And china shit theirs pants It was foreseeable

Was it China? It looks to me like the heavy volume during the dump was on the USD exchanges (well, stamp and finex) - on the CNY exchanges volume didn't seem to change during the dump.

It's probably just Christmas. I've been waiting for the price to climb as high as it can before about the 20th so I can sell and use any realized profit for presents. I expect small batches of sell offs between now and the 24th on USD exchanges will continue to happen as people find things they want to give as gifts.

Christmas dont dump 80 000 BTC in 3 min.

Why not? Do you have any idea how much is spent on Christmas every year? U.S. shoppers spent $9.1 billion at stores on Black Friday.

[Divitiae miserae]

Well said, Voktar.

[adamstgBit]

A dump near the $500 was expected. Traders painting a double top. Also, some people are expected to cash out before years end for tax reassons.

I was a little worried we where climbing very fast in the last few days, so dumps like these give me confidence we are not going to crash hard in the next leg up.

we should head back down to 395 fast and start another slowly climb immediately

[Yrpapyrtersplooz]

Christmas dont dump 80 000 BTC in 3 min.

Why not? Do you have any idea how much is spent on Christmas every year? U.S. shoppers spent $9.1 billion at stores on Black Friday.

Yup. All invested in bit-coins, and dump simultaneously, or, at most, within a 3-minute window

Alternate explanation: 'healthy correction' <==

[adamstgBit]

selling above 430 will prove very profitable at 395 or less  

9-15% in about 3-8 days? probably

[QuestionAuthority]

Christmas dont dump 80 000 BTC in 3 min.

Why not? Do you have any idea how much is spent on Christmas every year? U.S. shoppers spent $9.1 billion at stores on Black Friday.

Yup. All invested in bit-coins, and dump simultaneously, or, at most, within a 3-minute window

Alternate explanation: 'healthy correction' <==

Yep, on Friday they spent $6.5 million dollars a minute. How many individual transactions made up the dump? Was it Coinbase, BitPay or some other account?

[BldSwtTrs]

My prediction: we are going to slowly creep our way up toward 450$ for the balance of the weekend, then smash through 470$ and 500$ on Monday alongside stock markets crashing.

[adamstgBit]

shorts are low, longs are high, price is high, its time to do a little selling...

[Yrpapyrtersplooz]

Christmas dont dump 80 000 BTC in 3 min.

Why not? Do you have any idea how much is spent on Christmas every year? U.S. shoppers spent $9.1 billion at stores on Black Friday.

Yup. All invested in bit-coins, and dump simultaneously, or, at most, within a 3-minute window

Alternate explanation: 'healthy correction' <==

Yep, on Friday they spent $6.5 million dollars a minute. How many individual transactions made up the dump? Was it Coinbase, BitPay or some other account?

I was told Coinbase and BitPay don't sell coins via exchanges, and have institutional[ized] investors lined up to buy their Precious at a premium, 'to avoid slippage'?
Was I misled ?

[DefendKebab]

That was a huge dump, it will probably go sub 400 fast i hope my order will get filled.

[adamstgBit]

A dump near the $500 was expected. Traders painting a double top. Also, some people are expected to cash out before years end for tax reassons.

I was a little worried we where climbing very fast in the last few days, so dumps like these give me confidence we are not going to crash hard in the next leg up.

we should head back down to 395 fast and start another slowly climb immediately

That would be nice, but i dont think we are going sub 400...

i think we will might hit 380, 400 1 min   380 the next 390 the next min +400 FOREVER the following day  

[QuestionAuthority]

Christmas dont dump 80 000 BTC in 3 min.

Why not? Do you have any idea how much is spent on Christmas every year? U.S. shoppers spent $9.1 billion at stores on Black Friday.

Yup. All invested in bit-coins, and dump simultaneously, or, at most, within a 3-minute window

Alternate explanation: 'healthy correction' <==

Yep, on Friday they spent $6.5 million dollars a minute. How many individual transactions made up the dump? Was it Coinbase, BitPay or some other account?

I was told Coinbase and BitPay don't sell coins via exchanges, and have institutional[ized] investors lined up to buy their Precious at a premium, 'to avoid slippage'?
Was I misled ?

They didn't at first but who knows what they do now. How much can they absorb before they need to recover some fiat? Only they can tell you that. There are so many off book transactions that no one really knows what's happening.

[noobtrader]

A dump near the $500 was expected. Traders painting a double top. Also, some people are expected to cash out before years end for tax reassons.

I was a little worried we where climbing very fast in the last few days, so dumps like these give me confidence we are not going to crash hard in the next leg up.

we should head back down to 395 fast and start another slowly climb immediately

wow...
maybe i should sell too... but if it never reach 400 i want refund  

[billyjoeallen]

Ok, all BFX longs wrecked, now we proceed to $10,000.

all $25 million  in longs? Not even close. not yet. What's more, there were only 7K BTC shorts to cover. We're flying blind until bfxdata.com is back up, but there's no way all those longs got rekt or we'd be in the $200s.

Hate to disappoint everyone but longs are still at $26MM hard little critters to squash
https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats

That's not disappointing at all! More longs to get squeezed. Forced liquidation in the middle of a crash causes a margin call cascade and i get cheap coinz. 20K more to dump is all it would take.

We went from $475 to $402 and barely any longs were squeezed!!  Shorts are so tight they burn when we move up $10 feel something else is at play here.

I am surprised someone didn't dump the remaining $2 to put us under $400 would maybe see some cascades then 

What makes you think this is over? It could be, but it could also be that whoever dumped 50K coins bought them back just to dump them again when we think the coast is clear.  What I want to know is who is buying now at $425 when they could have bought at $410.  There's no new money coming in until Monday at the earliest and margin longs are paying me the equivalent of >30% APR to borrow my fiat.  Considering that the vast majority of my BTC holdings are in cold storage, it only makes sense to take the risk free return of margin funding rather than margin trading.

[Divitiae miserae]

A dump near the $500 was expected. Traders painting a double top. Also, some people are expected to cash out before years end for tax reassons.

I was a little worried we where climbing very fast in the last few days, so dumps like these give me confidence we are not going to crash hard in the next leg up.

we should head back down to 395 fast and start another slowly climb immediately

- Knock knock.
- Who's there?
- Correction.
- How can I help you?
- I'm here to inform you that the train is leaving soon. Destination: Unknown

[adamstgBit]

Christmas dont dump 80 000 BTC in 3 min.

Why not? Do you have any idea how much is spent on Christmas every year? U.S. shoppers spent $9.1 billion at stores on Black Friday.

Yup. All invested in bit-coins, and dump simultaneously, or, at most, within a 3-minute window

Alternate explanation: 'healthy correction' <==

Yep, on Friday they spent $6.5 million dollars a minute. How many individual transactions made up the dump? Was it Coinbase, BitPay or some other account?

I was told Coinbase and BitPay don't sell coins via exchanges, and have institutional[ized] investors lined up to buy their Precious at a premium, 'to avoid slippage'?
Was I misled ?

They didn't at first but who knows what they do now. How much can they absorb before they need to recover some fiat. Only they can tell you that.

i'm pretty sure BitPay Speculates with its coins
pretty sure BitPay is filthy rich in BTC...
tony use to trade with his "personal stash" and as i recall he made all the right moves  
he bought the shit out of all the coins as priate was trying to short them at 12$
oh the good old days such drama in such a small community

[QuestionAuthority]

Christmas dont dump 80 000 BTC in 3 min.

Why not? Do you have any idea how much is spent on Christmas every year? U.S. shoppers spent $9.1 billion at stores on Black Friday.

Yup. All invested in bit-coins, and dump simultaneously, or, at most, within a 3-minute window

Alternate explanation: 'healthy correction' <==

Yep, on Friday they spent $6.5 million dollars a minute. How many individual transactions made up the dump? Was it Coinbase, BitPay or some other account?

I was told Coinbase and BitPay don't sell coins via exchanges, and have institutional[ized] investors lined up to buy their Precious at a premium, 'to avoid slippage'?
Was I misled ?

They didn't at first but who knows what they do now. How much can they absorb before they need to recover some fiat. Only they can tell you that.

i'm pretty sure BitPay Speculates with its coins
pretty sure BitPay is filthy rich in BTC...
tony use to trade with his "personal stash" and as i recall he made all the right moves  
he bought the shit out of all the coins as priate was trying to short them at 12$
oh the good old days such drama in such a small community

I used to believe that until BitPay laid off a bunch of people and lost a half million in a failed Bitcoin bowl advertising scheme. They admitted that many businesses are stopping acceptance of Bitcoin. I don't know anymore how stable any of them are or what they have.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



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