Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[brg444]

What do you make of giant cup & handle forming?

Which chart are you looking at? 1Day?

Showing up on the 6h & 4h

[Hyperjacked]

[quote author=Yrpapyrtersplooz

>Who do you think controls the stock market ? Not the retail investors...they are just pawns in the game!
It's a cat and mouse game between regulators and people finding ways to circumvent regulations. Been going on forever, both sides have great arsenals.
What you're seeing in BTC markets is, all of a sudden, the regulations are removed. And every scheme from the turn of the past century is suddenly new & fresh again, nothing to stop it.

That said, the retail [I'm guessing you mean 'small-time, Joe Average' investor is always at a disadvantage. That's why real markets have notions like 'accredited investor,' to save Joe Sixpack from his own ignorant greed, from having his ass handed to him.
This, BTW, is also the reason behind regulations against Three Card Monte games -- your Saurian Overlords don't want you to go broke 'calculating risks for a living,' & ending up on Welfare
[/quote]
The Original HyperJacked...

Your debating with someone who has been around the stock market since the 1970's...raised by a shrink and a mathematical genius! While I've heard it skips a generation...the Apple dosent fall far from the tree.
So the whole "regulation...will save Joe Sixpack from his own ignorant greed" is a load of bs!

Who or what will save us from regulation...? BTC...? Maybe until regulation catches up and can control the "Average Joe" once again! Then maybe another form of creativity followed by more regulation and the cycle of greed by big business continues!

Wake up man...! Either this is a bad dream or your sipping on the pipe!

[jbreher]

, it only makes sense to take the risk free return of margin funding rather than margin trading.

Risk free? And if BFX pulls a pirate?

[peonminer]

What do you make of giant cup & handle forming?

Which chart are you looking at? 1Day?

Showing up on the 6h & 4h

Meh. I don't really see a cup and handle in the 6H/4H. Just noise.

I see this in the 1Day:



I also see that we have broke the down trend in the bigger picture as of September. My majority entry was 225-245. I jump on the margin train for fun in the runs. We all know it's coming. Might as well ride or die. BTCitcoin, she's my ride or die. Looks like dis bish gon be faithful for a while.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still over $400 I see. In fact hovering around $430.

That was a fairly reasonable correction considering how much it went up in a day and a half.

It wasn't enough of a dip for me to buy though. If it had happened during the day, I would have bought some more coins when it dipped below $410. Maybe next time.

[QuestionAuthority]

What do you make of giant cup & handle forming?

Which chart are you looking at? 1Day? That's not a giant cup and handle. That's a lopsided inverted head and shoulders, with the breakout confirming right now.

*pretty picture*

*pretty picture*

Looks like we have caught on to our moderate trending lines. This is a very bullish sign. Especially with the head and shoulders rejection in the 1min aspect.

*pretty picture*

*pretty picture*


It is two positive synergy signals. We will either converge over the weekend, or gorge out on some nom nom's heading upward much sooner.

*more pretty pictures*

You seem to have a clue, what kind of money will I be looking at for Christmas shopping on the 20th when I sell? Can I expect $550 a coin? I'd like kind of a general place to stop adding to my wish list on Amazon.

[brg444]

What do you make of giant cup & handle forming?

Which chart are you looking at? 1Day?

Showing up on the 6h & 4h

Meh. I don't really see a cup and handle in the 6H/4H. Just noise.

I see this in the 1Day:

I also see that we have broke the down trend in the bigger picture as of September.

I'll take that!

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

So, any recent advances in carbon nanotube fibres we should know about?

[brg444]

[quote author=Yrpapyrtersplooz

>Who do you think controls the stock market ? Not the retail investors...they are just pawns in the game!
It's a cat and mouse game between regulators and people finding ways to circumvent regulations. Been going on forever, both sides have great arsenals.
What you're seeing in BTC markets is, all of a sudden, the regulations are removed. And every scheme from the turn of the past century is suddenly new & fresh again, nothing to stop it.

That said, the retail [I'm guessing you mean 'small-time, Joe Average' investor is always at a disadvantage. That's why real markets have notions like 'accredited investor,' to save Joe Sixpack from his own ignorant greed, from having his ass handed to him.
This, BTW, is also the reason behind regulations against Three Card Monte games -- your Saurian Overlords don't want you to go broke 'calculating risks for a living,' & ending up on Welfare

The Original HyperJacked...

Your debating with someone who has been around the stock market since the 1970's..
[/quote]

And you're debating with an unrepenting troll  

[peonminer]

You seem to have a clue

I am a speculator just as we all are. If I had access to control a trust fund for a percentage commission, I would be a much happier speculator.

With that said, I am rooting for a massive $600 attempt and testing. The $500-$600 correction in the middle (towards the top) will be more violent than the one between $400-$500. Weak hands will show. Strong hands will be hitting like fight club.

[Yrpapyrtersplooz]

And you're debating with an unrepenting troll  

*unrepentant
Not trolling.
Just pointing out that trading the current BTC market is not 'calculating risks for a living.' And it's only gambling in inasmuch as being the mark in a game of Three Card Monte is gambling.

[Hyperjacked]

And you're debating with an unrepenting troll  

*unrepentant
Not trolling.
Just pointing out that trading the current BTC market is not 'calculating risks for a living.' And it's only gambling in inasmuch as being the mark in a game of Three Card Monte is gambling.

Dude...your a comedy show.

Please don't address me again.

[Fatman3001]

This is why I've given up on lambie

[peonminer]

Hyperjacked, remember. The ignore button is your friend. Don't feed the Lambies.

[practicaldreamer]

And you're debating with an unrepenting troll  

He may well be - but I have to say that       a) stuff like this is good entertainment ( in a slightly bored and listless kind of way) on an early Saturday evening whilst I'm preparing a curry, and            
      b) I've got to agree with the troll in this particular case. I've been following this thread long enough to know that the only ones to have made real gains are holders. Calculated risk ? In a rigged market ?

BTW - my Dad was the only Heavyweight Champion of the World to receive the Noble Prize for Physics. Where does that put my argument, relative to yours ?


Anyhow, on with the curry.

As you were.

[JorgeStolfi]

I have an immensely important question I want to ask since I was just told something, why does the price move the way it does?it goes up by 10-20$s then completely stops. And how much does it take to make it to 10$s plus?

Looking at the daily price and volume at Huobi, OKCoin, and other exchanges, I can see

(1) A gradual "exponential" increase in volume and price from about 2015-09-20 to the peak (~3350 CNY) on 11-04;
(2) A tumbling price and volume drop between 11-04 and 11-24 (down to ~2050 CNY);
(3) A very sharp increase in volume to a record high value on 11-24, that persisted until now; and a corresponding rally in price, by a rapid steady rise broken by several large jumps (to ~3150 CNY).

There was a partial crash today, to ~2800 CNY, but it is not clear yet how it will end.

There seems to be no certain explanation for these moves.  (And it seems that no one wants to find out...)

My best candidate explanation for (1) is still the bitcoin-based MMM ponzi and copycats, mostly in China; amplified by day-trader speculation.  The dates seem to match, the ponzi can easily move that amount of money, and the gradual "exponential" growth is consistent with the demand for bitcoins spreading among a new population of  by "infection".

The crash (2) would then be the speculators dumping their coins when they realized that the primary demand had leveled off.   Perhaps the ponzi saturated by 11-04, or participants ("lucky victims" and organizers) started to sell the bitcoins that they received.  

The new rally (3) could be due to the same cause as (1); however, considering the much higher volume and the way it grew (suddenly rather than gradually), the cause is probably different.

Rally (3) may have been due to the crackdown by the Chinese government on the use of the Chinese state credit/debit card (UnionPay) to export cash for gambling and other purposes.  The abuse seemed to be pervasive in Macau, the Las Vegas of China, which has a somewhat independent economy (like Hong Kong). Reports say that Mainland gamblers would go to Macau, pretend to buy merchandise at local pawn shops with the card, then pretend to return it for a cash refund (minus the shop's commission).  That way they could bypass the card's limit on cash withdrawal.  If that loophole was suddenly closed, it seems possible that the gamblers switched en masse to bitcoin.  

A sudden jump in the price must be due to single person buying or selling a large amount of bitcoin in a short time interval.  If the above explanation is correct, those may be exceptionally wealthy people trying to move their money out, or perhaps clandestine money transmitters providing that service for many smaller clients.  Either way, the jumps seem to indicate that the price is determined by a relatively small number of players.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[Hyperjacked]

And you're debating with an unrepenting troll  

He may well be - but I have to say that       a) stuff like this is good entertainment ( in a slightly bored and listless kind of way) on an early Saturday evening whilst I'm preparing a curry, and            
      b) I've got to agree with the troll in this particular case. I've been following this thread long enough to know that the only ones to have made real gains are holders. Calculated risk ? In a rigged market ?

BTW - my Dad was the only Heavyweight Champion of the World to receive the Noble Prize for Physics. Where does that put my argument, relative to yours ?


Anyhow, on with the curry.

As you were.

Well enjoy making your curry...

[chesthing]

I have an immensely important question I want to ask since I was just told something, why does the price move the way it does?it goes up by 10-20$s then completely stops. And how much does it take to make it to 10$s plus?

Looking at the daily price and volume at Huobi, OKCoin, and other exchanges, I can see

(1) A gradual "exponential" increase in volume and price from about 2015-09-20 to the peak (~3350 CNY) on 11-04;
(2) A tumbling price and volume drop between 11-04 and 11-24 (down to ~2050 CNY);
(3) A very sharp increase in volume to a record high value on 11-24, that persisted until now; and a corresponding rally in price, by a rapid steady rise broken by several large jumps (to ~3150 CNY).

There was a partial crash today, to ~2800 CNY, but it is not clear yet how it will end.

There seems to be no certain explanation for these moves.  (And it seems that no one wants to find out...)

My best candidate explanation for (1) is still the bitcoin-based MMM ponzi and copycats, mostly in China; amplified by day-trader speculation.  The dates seem to match, the ponzi can easily move that amount of money, and the gradual "exponential" growth is consistent with the demand for bitcoins spreading among a new population of  by "infection".

The crash (2) would then be the speculators dumping their coins when they realized that the primary demand had leveled off.   Perhaps the ponzi saturated by 11-04, or participants ("lucky victims" and organizers) started to sell the bitcoins that they received.  

The new rally (3) could be due to the same cause as (1); however, considering the much higher volume and the way it grew (suddenly rather than gradually), the cause is probably different.

Rally (3) may have been due to the crackdown by the Chinese government on the use of the Chinese state credit/debit card (UnionPay) to export cash for gambling and other purposes.  The abuse seemed to be pervasive in Macau, the Las Vegas of China, which has a somewhat independent economy (like Hong Kong). Reports say that Mainland gamblers would go to Macau, pretend to buy merchandise at local pawn shops with the card, then pretend to return it for a cash refund (minus the shop's commission).  That way they could bypass the card's limit on cash withdrawal.  If that loophole was suddenly closed, it seems possible that the gamblers switched en masse to bitcoin.  

A sudden jump in the price must be due to single person buying or selling a large amount of bitcoin in a short time interval.  If the above explanation is correct, those may be exceptionally wealthy people trying to move their money out, or perhaps clandestine money transmitters providing that service for many smaller clients.  Either way, the jumps seem to indicate that the price is determined by a relatively small number of players.

Your putting too much thought into this. People had a whole year to accumulate bitcoins in the $2xx range, whenever the price is in the mid $400s they can sell and double their money, and for every coin they sell they end up with a free one. It's gonna be a rough road to get past $500 because of this, but I think it will happen.

[peonminer]

And you're debating with an unrepenting troll  

He may well be - but I have to say that       a) stuff like this is good entertainment ( in a slightly bored and listless kind of way) on an early Saturday evening whilst I'm preparing a curry, and            
      b) I've got to agree with the troll in this particular case. I've been following this thread long enough to know that the only ones to have made real gains are holders. Calculated risk ? In a rigged market ?

BTW - my Dad was the only Heavyweight Champion of the World to receive the Noble Prize for Physics. Where does that put my argument, relative to yours ?


Anyhow, on with the curry.

As you were.

Well enjoy making your curry...

Obviously a stoner Jap.
Father is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Takaaki_Kajita eh?
Curry at 3AM eh?

I bet when you ask your dad why he won the Nobel Prize, he'll tell you he did it for the lulz.



Jorge, I would suggest you read this:

http://www.coindesk.com/bot-named-willy-did-mt-goxs-automated-trading-pump-bitcoin-price/

Also, this:

http://willyreport.wordpress.com/

Someone is sticking their Willy all up in Huobi. She's so happy to have him. Especially when the massive swings don't match the volume. That's when you really feel the Willy up in her.