Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Sitarow]

Wha wha wha so many whiny bears, you carry on talking about irrelevant bids and asks and ignore the bigger picture, be my guest. But but blocks lol

Halving.
Difficulty increase.
Increased interest.

These are things that are affecting price. I fully expect to see nearer to $100mil in leverage longs when this really starts bubbling.

Good point. Because everyone wants to use a currency they can't use because it doesn't work

yea right who the he'll wants stocks you can't use

You mean stocks which represent nothing beyond the paper they're [not] printed on?
Good question.

You don't understand stocks much do you?

Perhaps not. Teach me?

@Sitarow, so what you're telling me is I could make money if I got my gear for free?

Yes or on the cheep or don't have to pay power like some locations oh and if your looking I think their is a franchise option from Bitfury as long as you can provide the facility and power site.

[dloghwak]

Wha wha wha so many whiny bears, you carry on talking about irrelevant bids and asks and ignore the bigger picture, be my guest. But but blocks lol

Halving.
Difficulty increase.
Increased interest.

These are things that are affecting price. I fully expect to see nearer to $100mil in leverage longs when this really starts bubbling.

Good point. Because everyone wants to use a currency they can't use because it doesn't work

yea right who the he'll wants stocks you can't use

You mean stocks which represent nothing beyond the paper they're [not] printed on?
Good question.

You don't understand stocks much do you?

Perhaps not. Teach me?

@Sitarow, so what you're telling me is I could make money if I got my gear for free?

Capital was and is a major driver of economic growth, grab a book about economics or google it yourself, shouldn't be that hard.

[alani123]

Last time this level was reached the drop was spectacular, this time it seems more sustainable. Or is it calm before the storm?

[koryu]

The only question is whether we retake 504 on this run or not.

If we do best the previous high then expect the media to start to wake up and everyone prepare for a clamour and cacophony about retest of the ATH.

Interesting times.

All I know is that after reviewing my hardware vs difficulty vs return document home miners can still profit if btc is over $450 and only pay $0.10 kWh of power.

If you pay $0.03 kWh of power btc can be down at $150 USD and still profit.

I have revised my old hardware return vs network difficulty increase chart to shine some light on this.

This document has been shared for anyone to use.

BTC at $150 USD power costs at $0.03 kWh.


BTC at $450 USD power costs at $0.03 kWh.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZphwgPk2lySm3sNlHnow6tuwx6YUV0G7qGDtRZ2xFbk/edit?usp=sharing
You will also find other sheets that contain estimated returns that only factor in power costs.
Please note that this does not take into account hardware or other overhead costs.

great work  

[Richy_T]

If unclear, I'm not saying you haven't used Bitcoin as money in the past, when there were fewer transactions and the blocks were not full.
What I am saying is that when the blocks become full, as is already happening now & will most certainly happen if more people try to use BTC, Bitcoin will stop to function.
I may accept your payment without waiting for it to be confirmed, just like I may accept your promise that the check's in the mail, *but I can't use it*.

Calm down comrade. If you wait patiently, you too will get your loaf of bread place in the blockchain in good time.



But don't worry, if you have any concerns, you can make them heard through our Minister of Truth, Commissar Theymos.

[Sitarow]

The only question is whether we retake 504 on this run or not.

If we do best the previous high then expect the media to start to wake up and everyone prepare for a clamour and cacophony about retest of the ATH.

Interesting times.

All I know is that after reviewing my hardware vs difficulty vs return document home miners can still profit if btc is over $450 and only pay $0.10 kWh of power.

If you pay $0.03 kWh of power btc can be down at $150 USD and still profit.

I have revised my old hardware return vs network difficulty increase chart to shine some light on this.

This document has been shared for anyone to use.

BTC at $150 USD power costs at $0.03 kWh.


BTC at $450 USD power costs at $0.03 kWh. <---- it should be 0.10 kWh


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZphwgPk2lySm3sNlHnow6tuwx6YUV0G7qGDtRZ2xFbk/edit?usp=sharing
You will also find other sheets that contain estimated returns that only factor in power costs.
Please note that this does not take into account hardware or other overhead costs.

great work  

Its an old document however it helps those understand the economic implications.

[spooderman]

my friend has been diagnosed with a bad disease.

off topic: go be healthier, all of you.

Sorry to hear that.

This reminds me to cut down on the smoking. Preferably, to near zero :/

smoking was the cause of his illness.

[macsga]

my friend has been diagnosed with a bad disease.

off topic: go be healthier, all of you.

Sorry to hear that.

This reminds me to cut down on the smoking. Preferably, to near zero :/

I used to smoke about 3 Camel packs per day. Luckily I decided that the best thing to do was to cut it and buy a bicycle... 15 years now

PS: Wish him all the best spooderman.

[TERA]

I understand adoption blah blah blah and that this is a good long term and mid term bet.  My analysis are for trading purposes and things like
-should I enter into a margin long right now?
-is the liquidity of the exchange growing?
-is fresh fiat being injected masse right now?
-will it simply consolidatine and go sideways for another three months, or is it breaking out right at this instant?
-could one small market dump cause a margin reaction and liquidate me?

Margin trading is a different game than investing.  I need to know these things.

I understand sell walls don't have much of an affect in bitcoin. However,  bid walls are somewhat more meaningful,  and I'm usually discussing the bid side.

[adamstgBit]

i really didnt think we'd see a full retarce so soon!

what if we really are >32,000 in < 2 years 

[ImI]

i really didnt think we'd see a full retarce so soon!

what if we really are >32,000 in < 2 years 

no, but 5000$ is quite likely

[adamstgBit]

i really didnt think we'd see a full retarce so soon!

what if we really are >32,000 in < 2 years  

no, but 5000$ is quite likely

then what?

i think we'll see 1000-5000 for a year or 2 and bam 32,000 crash down to 10,000 bubble of the year 2017

by 2020, we're back at 32,000 heading for 100,000.

if bitcoin is very successful we're taking ~1million a coin no joke.

[dloghwak]

Wha wha wha so many whiny bears, you carry on talking about irrelevant bids and asks and ignore the bigger picture, be my guest. But but blocks lol

Halving.
Difficulty increase.
Increased interest.

These are things that are affecting price. I fully expect to see nearer to $100mil in leverage longs when this really starts bubbling.

Good point. Because everyone wants to use a currency they can't use because it doesn't work

yea right who the he'll wants stocks you can't use

You mean stocks which represent nothing beyond the paper they're [not] printed on?
Good question.

You don't understand stocks much do you?

Perhaps not. Teach me?

@Sitarow, so what you're telling me is I could make money if I got my gear for free?

Capital was and is a major driver of economic growth, grab a book about economics or google it yourself, shouldn't be that hard.

If buying BTC is like buying stocks (which is what you seem to suggest), then these stocks represent nothing beyond your hope that someday, someone will be stupid enough to buy these 'stocks' from you.
Capital driving economic growth, how does it enter into this?
Which part is capital, USD spent on your BTCeanies BTC, or the BTC itself?

That's not at all what I meant. I talk about shares of a corporation , they do represent ownership of a corporation.

[JayJuanGee]

Last time this level was reached the drop was spectacular, this time it seems more sustainable. Or is it calm before the storm?

Sometimes it is very difficult to know for sure.

I have been thinking that prices would have a few approaches to $500, but not quite reach $500 and then finally break through and once passing $520 would be well in passing to the mid $600s before a correction.

A thing about attempting such a prediction is that a few big-ass players could really interfere with the way the whole matter plays out and surprise us... WOW!!!!


Anyhow, it likely doesn't hurt to have a tentative vision regarding how matters might play out, so long as your holdings also are prepared for varying alternative (quasi-surprise) scenarios - in either direction.... but anticipating that at this point, probabilities seem much more likely for up

[oda.krell]

-should I enter into a margin long right now?

I personally wouldn't. I believe the place of margin is for the middle of the distribution, not the tails.

-is the liquidity of the exchange growing?
-is fresh fiat being injected masse right now?

Not clear. Drying out order book (which is arguably the case), highly leveraged longs can point either way: the trend is weakening, or the market sentiment has changed drastically, and the above are just the first signs of change of demand temporarily being ahead of actual demand (i.e. dollars on the exchanges)

-will it simply consolidatine and go sideways for another three months, or is it breaking out right at this instant?

Breakout towards blowout? Possibly. Towards new sustained rally? No idea. Sideways? Less likely, imo.

-could one small market dump cause a margin reaction and liquidate me?

See leverage remark above.

You really don't like funds sitting on an exchange, do you? :D

[adamstgBit]

i really didnt think we'd see a full retarce so soon!

what if we really are >32,000 in < 2 years  

no, but 5000$ is quite likely

then what?

i think we'll see 1000-5000 for a year or 2 and bam 32,000 crash down to 10,000 bubble of the year 2017

by 2020, we're back at 32,000 heading for 100,000.

if bitcoin is very successful we're taking ~1million a coin no joke.

if countries started using bitcoin to trade oil and stuff... i wouldn't be surprised to see 2million dollars a coin, 2022 bubble! and if bitcoin gets that far its reasonable to assume it will go the distance and eventually take over all currency at which point it would make sense to buy 1million dollar coins in anticipation of 5million dollar coins 5-10 years later. Its less risky buying 1million dollar bitcoin because at that point you know bitcoin is successful and will most definitely to continue being successful tomorrow.


but i think this is an unlikely sanrio, i think bitcoin will be THE ONE until it's not, but even after it's no longer THE crypto everyone uses, it will still be very valuable.

but how knows, all we can do is watch the story unfold and place bets  

[Elwar]

Wha wha wha so many whiny bears, you carry on talking about irrelevant bids and asks and ignore the bigger picture, be my guest. But but blocks lol

Halving.
Difficulty increase.
Increased interest.

These are things that are affecting price. I fully expect to see nearer to $100mil in leverage longs when this really starts bubbling.

Good point. Because everyone wants to use a currency they can't use because it doesn't work

As someone who actually uses Bitcoin as a currency. It works.

I'm sure. many children used Chuck E. Cheese coins as a currency too, but that's not what I'm talking about.
I'm talking about full blocks, which would make Bitcoin unusable

Other than getting your money onto an exchange, just sending the transaction has tended to be good enough for any payment I've done.

I've even sent a few people over $10k worth of bitcoins and once they saw the transaction show up that was good enough for them. Of course we had established enough trust by then to make such a transaction possible.

If unclear, I'm not saying you haven't used Bitcoin as money in the past, when there were fewer transactions and the blocks were not full.
What I am saying is that when the blocks become full, as is already happening now & will most certainly happen if more people try to use BTC, Bitcoin will stop to function.
I may accept your payment without waiting for it to be confirmed, just like I may accept your promise that the check's in the mail, *but I can't use it*.

A credit card transaction takes 6 months to confirm and yet people are able to conduct commerce. I don't think there is one thing I've purchased in the past 6 months where there hasn't been a third party service handling the transaction for the company. Those services can wait hours if necessary and still be just fine. On localbitcoins I transfer money from my account to someone else's account in a second.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[ImI]

i really didnt think we'd see a full retarce so soon!

what if we really are >32,000 in < 2 years  

no, but 5000$ is quite likely

then what?

then other CC will take over and BTC will die

[peonminer]

Launch scheduled for 4:20PM CST.