Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Its About Sharing]

1 hour indicators have cooled. Whale may step in between now and a day.

Do you think the whale has been following the 1hr chart more?

[Its About Sharing]

This is starting to remind me of the day before the drive through 125. Keep the price within $5 of the wall, buy up to a buck or so of the base of the wall when the asks fill in but don't drop a big bidwall, and keep refreshing small bidwalls to maintain the $5 spread.

Some people thought it might be a hammer but the 125 wall was eaten, not pulled.

Get ready. I think the next whale move will happen in less than 24 hours.

Based on the number of triangles in the last month I've wondered if the whales artificially control the creation of triangles using methods like what you are describing. Create the triangle and then punch through it causing a surge of others to join in and help push things up as they follow. I've ponded this before during others times in the market.

You think? 

Yes I certain do think. As to whether it is true or simply the market naturally creating the triangles is a completely different issue, haha. 

There is some obvious "manipulation" going on. Maybe the head and shoulders pattern. Take your shoes off and walk like a ninja. Really feels like one has to be looking over their shoulders in this market.

I get the feeling bots might be making the patterns, at least some of them...

[Its About Sharing]

If you have some of your money in another currency and buy something with it, I don't think capital gains would be involved. This is a question for a lawyer but I can't imagine countries, banks, etc. who have their money in other currencies, must pay capital gains on things for purchases made.

I was under the understanding that taxes are paid when going from currency to currency (depending on country). Here in Germany you have no capital gains on BTC's held for over one year.

IAS

buying a house, especially if its a second house... you'll get tax... you can try to pay with bitcoin at never declare it... idk i wouldn't...

You are looking at is as if BTC was an investment. I'm saying you are just holding another currency.
If you go to another country and exchange thousands in that currency and then come home and that currency's value increases, do you pay a capital gains tax on it? I can't imagine that happening.

Now, if you see BTC as a stock, that might be another matter. But, it is a currency.

I don't doubt there can be legal implications, I'm just saying I think it is way too early to speak with any certainty here.

IAS

In the US it is called foreign currency gains and is taxable (alternatively, barter gains). If bitcoin is seen as a functional currency, I read it as giving us a personal use exemption on gains less than $200 -- any transaction with gains higher than that is supposed to be reported. If bitcoin isn't seen as a currency, no exemption. Too lazy to look up and cite but pretty sure this is the case.

Thanks for that! Hopefully this helps others.

IAS

[Wekkel]

1 hour indicators have cooled. Whale may step in between now and a day.

Do you think the whale has been following the 1hr chart more?

I don't know, but looking in the recent past, whales stepped in when the 1/2 hour indicators had cooled down or went slightly negative. This is the hardest part of waiting.

[ChartBuddy]

[ChartBuddy]

[ChartBuddy]

[ChartBuddy]

[ardana123]

I personally think some big money is waiting in the shadows. Imagine if a couple billion moved in right now. Popularity would skyrocket, everyone would go all-in (because the initial billionaire pushed the price up to extreme highs already), pushing the price up even further, earning the billionaire who invested his money a huge ROI? Why wouldn't they do this? Prolly because the market is not liquid enough for this kind of money. Maybe the bitcoin ETF from the winklevii will allow this kind of money to move in.

[capsqrl]

Rally time again! ~5000K buy? Sweet.

[Cablez]

Hello 148!!  

Looks like some lag too.

[ardana123]

Interesting, at exactly the same time that 1262 btc buy was initiated on the USD market, an 883 btc buy was triggered on the euro market. Maybe someone had a bot configured the moment someone buys hard on the USD market?

[Kupsi]

Interesting, at exactly the same time that 1262 btc buy was initiated on the USD market, an 883 btc buy was triggered on the euro market. Maybe someone had a bot configured the moment someone buys hard on the USD market?

It's the same market.

[ardana123]

Yes, they have more or less the same price, but they're still two different markets with different actors. It just struck me as interesting that those 2 buys were simultaneous.

[barbs]

Interesting, at exactly the same time that 1262 btc buy was initiated on the USD market, an 883 btc buy was triggered on the euro market. Maybe someone had a bot configured the moment someone buys hard on the USD market?

It's the same market.

It's not the same market.

And yes, there are bots on EUR and GBP markets that follow strictly fast movements of USD markets because volume is so low on those they would always be behind on price otherwise.

[Kupsi]

It works like this.

In my example 1 EURO = 1.50 USD and Mt.Gox adds a 2.5% exchange fee between currenies.

I place a ask order @ 12.00 USD. This order will also show up at 8.2 EURO. (12 / 1.5 * 1.025)
I place a bid order @ 11.50 USD. This order will also show up at 7.475 EURO. (11.5 / 1.5 * 0.975)

When most orders are placed in USD, it will give a bigger spread at the EURO market because of the 2.5% exchange fee.


If I then place a ask order @ 8.40 EURO, it will show up at 12.915 USD. (8.40 * 1.5 * 1.025)


It's the same orders and the same actors on all Gox markets.

[ardana123]

Well i can imagine people having huge losses (or wins, but rather the former i think) using these bot strategies. After all, nobody knows what's going to happen next. All you can do is bet. Yes there are some indicators but markets love to disappoint.

[barbs]

It works like this.

In my example 1 EURO = 1.50 USD and Mt.Gox adds a 2.5% exchange fee between currenies.

I place a ask order @ 12.00 USD. This order will also show up at 8.2 EURO. (12 / 1.5 * 1.025)
I place a bid order @ 11.50 USD. This order will also show up at 7.475 EURO. (11.5 / 1.5 * 0.975)

When most orders are placed in USD, it will give a bigger spread at the EURO market because of the 2.5% exchange fee.


If I then place a ask order @ 8.40 EURO, it will show up at 12.915 USD. (8.40 * 1.5 * 1.025)


It's the same orders and the same actors on all Gox markets.

I'm sorry that's just not true they're different markets, you're thinking about funding I think

Edit: Please explain how on the jump from 130-140+ I was able to buy in fully with my gbp holdings @ 85£ (131$) while the USD market was already at 136$ for a few mins?

[Kupsi]

It works like this.

In my example 1 EURO = 1.50 USD and Mt.Gox adds a 2.5% exchange fee between currenies.

I place a ask order @ 12.00 USD. This order will also show up at 8.2 EURO. (12 / 1.5 * 1.025)
I place a bid order @ 11.50 USD. This order will also show up at 7.475 EURO. (11.5 / 1.5 * 0.975)

When most orders are placed in USD, it will give a bigger spread at the EURO market because of the 2.5% exchange fee.


If I then place a ask order @ 8.40 EURO, it will show up at 12.915 USD. (8.40 * 1.5 * 1.025)


It's the same orders and the same actors on all Gox markets.

I'm sorry that's just not true they're different markets, you're thinking about funding I think

No, you are wrong.

[strawbs]

It works like this.

In my example 1 EURO = 1.50 USD and Mt.Gox adds a 2.5% exchange fee between currenies.

I place a ask order @ 12.00 USD. This order will also show up at 8.2 EURO. (12 / 1.5 * 1.025)
I place a bid order @ 11.50 USD. This order will also show up at 7.475 EURO. (11.5 / 1.5 * 0.975)

When most orders are placed in USD, it will give a bigger spread at the EURO market because of the 2.5% exchange fee.


If I then place a ask order @ 8.40 EURO, it will show up at 12.915 USD. (8.40 * 1.5 * 1.025)


It's the same orders and the same actors on all Gox markets.

I'm sorry that's just not true they're different markets, you're thinking about funding I think

Edit: Please explain how on the jump from 130-140+ I was able to buy in fully with my gbp holdings @ 85£ (131$) while the USD market was already at 136$ for a few mins?

The front page of the Mt.Gox website states that it is "the only multi-currency Bitcoin trading platform where you can trade with the entire world in your local currency."

Unless they're deceiving us