Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[marcus_of_augustus]

Can you give a "for example" on the security patches nodes want besides not being half-broken?

Small sample..


    #6438 2531438 openssl: avoid config file load/race
    #6571 100ac4e libbitcoinconsensus: avoid a crash in multi-threaded environments
    #6694 834e299 [QT] fix thin space word wrap line break issue
    #6703 1cd7952 Backport bugfixes to 0.11
    #6750 5ed8d0b Recent rejects backport to v0.11
    #6769 71cc9d9 Test LowS in standardness, removes nuisance malleability vector.
    #6789 b4ad73f Update miniupnpc to 1.9.20151008
    #6785 b4dc33e Backport to v0.11: In (strCommand == “tx”), return if AlreadyHave()
    #6795 4dbcec0 net: Disable upnp by default

I would rather have all those issues than be half broken. Simple fix for upnp... don't allow it.

Imagine if "we" could be not broken and have bug fixes at the same time, plus 2MB blocks, why didn't anyone think of this...?

Imagine if you could code (or pay someone to code) you could actually fix all those things you perceive as being broken, make changes to your hearts content ... instead of sitting on the sidelines, back-seat driving, monday morning quarter-backing and generally sounding like a pompous know-it-all.

Why didn't you think of that?

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[1714842076]

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[Cconvert2G36]

I would rather have all those issues than be half broken. Simple fix for upnp... don't allow it.

Imagine if "we" could be not broken and have bug fixes at the same time, plus 2MB blocks, why didn't anyone think of this...?

Imagine if you could code (or pay someone to code) you could actually fix all those things you perceive as being broken, make changes to your hearts content ... instead of sitting on the sidelines, back-seat driving, monday morning quarter-backing and generally sounding like a pompous know-it-all.

Why didn't you think of that?

Thankfully, like-minded people... investors, coders, miners, and exchanges are beginning to coalesce around something I agree with. Our mutual self interests align... Imagine that... could it be possible?

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[Andre#]

Thanks for the explanation on the fullness of the block

So those few hours with totally full blocks are the sign of the beginning of the end of btc?  

Well I suppose it will be fixed in a way or another.

No, the periods of totally full blocks show that we are hitting the ceiling of the transaction capacity. It's not the beginning of the end of Bitcoin (yet).

It will be fixed. Either by raising the transaction capacity of the network. Or the service becomes too expensive for a part of the users, and the growth of Bitcoin will come to a halt at a quarter of a million transactions per day. And that (given a current user base of only about 1 million) may be the beginning of the end of Bitcoin if the current users (like me, who are expecting growth) lose confidence and start selling their stashes.

Note, the latter situation can develop quite quickly, since the price of Bitcoin is almost entirely based on speculation about its future. Once the hoodlers lose their faith in Bitcoin's future, the price will collapse.

[sAt0sHiFanClub]

Can you give a "for example" on the security patches nodes want besides not being half-broken?

Small sample..


    #6438 2531438 openssl: avoid config file load/race
    #6571 100ac4e libbitcoinconsensus: avoid a crash in multi-threaded environments
    #6694 834e299 [QT] fix thin space word wrap line break issue
    #6703 1cd7952 Backport bugfixes to 0.11
    #6750 5ed8d0b Recent rejects backport to v0.11
    #6769 71cc9d9 Test LowS in standardness, removes nuisance malleability vector.
    #6789 b4ad73f Update miniupnpc to 1.9.20151008
    #6785 b4dc33e Backport to v0.11: In (strCommand == “tx”), return if AlreadyHave()
    #6795 4dbcec0 net: Disable upnp by default

0.11.1 Change log
Detailed release notes follow. This overview includes changes that affect behavior, not code moves, refactors and string updates. For convenience in locating the code changes and accompanying discussion, both the pull request and git merge commit are mentioned.

#6438 2531438 openssl: avoid config file load/race
#6439 980f820 Updated URL location of netinstall for Debian
#6384 8e5a969 qt: Force TLS1.0+ for SSL connections
#6471 92401c2 Depends: bump to qt 5.5
#6224 93b606a Be even stricter in processing unrequested blocks
#6571 100ac4e libbitcoinconsensus: avoid a crash in multi-threaded environments
#6545 649f5d9 Do not store more than 200 timedata samples.
#6694 834e299 [QT] fix thin space word wrap line break issue
#6703 1cd7952 Backport bugfixes to 0.11
#6750 5ed8d0b Recent rejects backport to v0.11
#6769 71cc9d9 Test LowS in standardness, removes nuisance malleability vector.
#6789 b4ad73f Update miniupnpc to 1.9.20151008
#6785 b4dc33e Backport to v0.11: In (strCommand == "tx"), return if AlreadyHave()
#6412 0095b9a Test whether created sockets are select()able
#6795 4dbcec0 net: Disable upnp by default
#6793 e7bcc4a Bump minrelaytxfee default

[AlexGR]

Thanks for the explanation on the fullness of the block

So those few hours with totally full blocks are the sign of the beginning of the end of btc?  

Well I suppose it will be fixed in a way or another.

No, the periods of totally full blocks show that we are hitting the ceiling of the transaction capacity. It's not the beginning of the end of Bitcoin (yet).

Are we?

https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-block-size?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

Avg size is between 0.5mb and 0.7mb the last few days. Which means there is an extra 40% to 100% available capacity, depending the day.

[flagpara]

Thanks for the explanation on the fullness of the block

So those few hours with totally full blocks are the sign of the beginning of the end of btc?  

Well I suppose it will be fixed in a way or another.

No, the periods of totally full blocks show that we are hitting the ceiling of the transaction capacity. It's not the beginning of the end of Bitcoin (yet).

It will be fixed. Either by raising the transaction capacity of the network. Or the service becomes too expensive for a part of the users, and the growth of Bitcoin will come to a halt at a quarter of a million transactions per day. And that (given a current user base of only about 1 million) may be the beginning of the end of Bitcoin if the current users (like me, who are expecting growth) lose confidence and start selling their stashes.

Note, the latter situation can develop quite quickly, since the price of Bitcoin is almost entirely based on speculation about its future. Once the hoodlers lose their faith in Bitcoin's future, the price will collapse.

That's right, it's more or less a question of faith when it comes to bitcoin...

I lost mine years ago but it doesn't mean others will too 

[suda123]

Thanks for the explanation on the fullness of the block

So those few hours with totally full blocks are the sign of the beginning of the end of btc?  

Well I suppose it will be fixed in a way or another.

No, the periods of totally full blocks show that we are hitting the ceiling of the transaction capacity. It's not the beginning of the end of Bitcoin (yet).

It will be fixed. Either by raising the transaction capacity of the network. Or the service becomes too expensive for a part of the users, and the growth of Bitcoin will come to a halt at a quarter of a million transactions per day. And that (given a current user base of only about 1 million) may be the beginning of the end of Bitcoin if the current users (like me, who are expecting growth) lose confidence and start selling their stashes.

Note, the latter situation can develop quite quickly, since the price of Bitcoin is almost entirely based on speculation about its future. Once the hoodlers lose their faith in Bitcoin's future, the price will collapse.

Aw yeaa the fud is fresh and ripe

[sAt0sHiFanClub]

Once you know this , you will have no fear of these private blockchains.

You need to put that into a Matrix meme. Or an Alec Guinness Jedi Mind Trick meme.

Edit:

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[flagpara]

Thanks for the explanation on the fullness of the block

So those few hours with totally full blocks are the sign of the beginning of the end of btc?  

Well I suppose it will be fixed in a way or another.

No, the periods of totally full blocks show that we are hitting the ceiling of the transaction capacity. It's not the beginning of the end of Bitcoin (yet).

It will be fixed. Either by raising the transaction capacity of the network. Or the service becomes too expensive for a part of the users, and the growth of Bitcoin will come to a halt at a quarter of a million transactions per day. And that (given a current user base of only about 1 million) may be the beginning of the end of Bitcoin if the current users (like me, who are expecting growth) lose confidence and start selling their stashes.

Note, the latter situation can develop quite quickly, since the price of Bitcoin is almost entirely based on speculation about its future. Once the hoodlers lose their faith in Bitcoin's future, the price will collapse.

Aw yeaa the fud is fresh and ripe

Is it FUD attempt to have doubt? It would be to yell everywhere "sell sell now it's too dangerous" but just saying that it's a complicated situation where one's faith could be damaged is not FUD...

[Fatman3001]

If First Mover advantage is lost, whether it takes years or months, it will be gone forever.  Yeah, Bitcoin will still be around. Hell, MySpace is still around, but The escape route from Bankster tyranny will have been blocked.

Goldman sachs and govcoin can never replicate some of bitcoins best attributes:soverign, immutable, no KYC. and extremely unlikely to replicate other features that make bitcoin so great : limited , disinflationary.

Once you know this , you will have no fear of these private blockchains.

https://www.onthewire.io/new-york-wants-to-force-vendors-to-decrypt-users-phones/

http://9to5mac.com/2016/01/13/new-york-backdoor-access-bill/

http://www.coindesk.com/fincen-fines-ripple-labs-700000-bank-secrecy-act/

Private companies are swell. You can even fine them.

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[flagpara]

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Yeah seems like blocks are full only from time to time, it's not a global phenomenon. So we won't see a problem in transaction yet!

[rebuilder]

Yeah seems like blocks are full only from time to time, it's not a global phenomenon. So we won't see a problem in transaction yet!

Yep, and even when blocks are full, if it's just 0-fee transactions that don't go through, that's not such a big problem IMO.

The interesting question is: When transactions with fees start getting stuck in the queue, what happens to the sum of fees? If enough users need to use Bitcoin, then the sum will stay the same or rise. It could also be that even with some users paying more for their transactions, the fees would still add up to less than if all, or some, of the lower-paying TX's had been included. These would be users who are willing to pay some fee, but not whatever fee a limited blocksize leads to.

A hard cap on blocksize takes away the miners' ability to choose what kind of transactions are most economical for them to process. IMO it also takes away any chance of finding a fair price for transactions vs. resource usage since the resource usage is capped by dictate.

[Andre#]

Thanks for the explanation on the fullness of the block

So those few hours with totally full blocks are the sign of the beginning of the end of btc?  

Well I suppose it will be fixed in a way or another.

No, the periods of totally full blocks show that we are hitting the ceiling of the transaction capacity. It's not the beginning of the end of Bitcoin (yet).

Are we?

https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-block-size?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

Avg size is between 0.5mb and 0.7mb the last few days. Which means there is an extra 40% to 100% available capacity, depending the day.

Of course, it's not about the average size per day (unless you say it's okay to wait a day for your transaction to be  processed). It's about the occurrence of periods that the network is maxxed out. The more often these periods occur and the longer they last, the more degraded the user experience becomes, as I experienced myself a couple of times already.

And the size of blocks mined doesn't tell everything. There are regularly empty blocks, and sometimes miners don't fill up blocks despite plenty of tx waiting to be included. So not all available tx capacity is actually used by all miners.

In the end it's the user experience that matters, whether this is confirmation time or tx fee. If these goes down hill, usage will shrink, user adoption will stall. Stalling adaption will hurt the confidence of the users and ultimately the price of BTC.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[AlexGR]

Of course, it's not about the average size per day (unless you say it's okay to wait a day for your transaction to be  processed).

Yes, it is perfectly ok if I don't pay fees.

Not all txs have the same urgency. Consolidating dust in my wallets is not the same as wanting to be included in the first block because I want to transfer money to an exchange *right now*. I can wait 10 blocks or 100 blocks for the dust, but I'll pay extra for the first block inclusion if I need it.

It's about the occurrence of periods that the network is maxxed out. The more often these periods occur and the longer they last, the more degraded the user experience becomes, as I experienced myself a couple of times already.

It's just like the highway. You pay more for your own car, you go faster than the bus. You pay a cab, you go faster than the bus. If you want to go "economy", you keep your money and take the bus.

And the size of blocks mined doesn't tell everything. There are regularly empty blocks, and sometimes miners don't fill up blocks despite plenty of tx waiting to be included. So not all available tx capacity is actually used by all miners.

Yes, because fees are too low for some miners to even bother. When you get 25 btc from block reward and 0.2-0.4 from tx fees, why would I even risk orphaning the block by taking longer to transmit my block finding? It's not worth it.

This is a problem that sooner or later will be understood by "large blockers" when the percentage of the miners not bothering to even mine transactions will increase dramatically. So when half the miners will mine the 2mb blocks, and it's an effective network capacity of 1mb, what then? We'll be asking for 10mb blocks? And what will change then, if miners still refuse to mine txs without the fees going up significantly?

In the end it's the user experience that matters, whether this is confirmation time or tx fee. If these goes down hill, usage will shrink, user adoption will stall. Stalling adaption will hurt the confidence of the users and ultimately the price of BTC.

At 0.5 - 0.7mb avg, we have plenty of space left. Obviously if some miners feel they don't want to mine almost free txs, that's not a capacity problem, but a broken-fee-model, in terms of the "customers" who want to transact for free or almost free, and some miners are like "yeah, ok, please go somewhere else for your free or cheap tx processing".