Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Meuh6879]

Looking good ...

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[aztecminer]

Fuck me.  It's hard to imagine a worse call.  Well, the market has spoken and the market always gets the last word.

I'm glad that you are willing to admit your bad call;  however, I always assert that we can really never know for sure the shortest term price direction unless we happen to be a whale that is able to push it with 10k or more coins  (and/or equivalent in dollars maybe on bitstamp?).

On the other hand, BTC prices had been lingering for so long in the upper $300s after the Hearn fiasco.. and then attempts at pushing it below $350 had really not been going anywhere... at least not yet... and also people seem to be kind of less convinced that there is any real material issue that is dragging down bitcoin as Hearn was arguing.... I mean seeing through the apparent propaganda...

So far this uptrend has not been on very high relative volume (at least from my perspective), so that causes me to believe that it could be put to a halt or reversed with some voluminous dumping (maybe 10k coins would be sufficient?)

That was way more than a 10,000 coin pump. The markets are connected, so pumping on one or two exchanges isn't enough if the others don't follow.  No, the market clearly believes that the miners will be able to convince and/or pressure Core into including a hardfork in the roadmap. I am nearly not so optimistic, but as Keynes said, markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

maybe if ur on margin.. otherwise that might not hold true .

[aztecminer]

Yes!
Bitcoinwisdom shows $400 on average!!
Welcome back!And please stay!!!

Why's it gone over $400 on stamp? Is there no real reason or has something happened to pump up the price? I can't find any giant events that are responsible for it like the US government has decided to ditch the dollar and switch to using nothing but bitcoin.

 u musta missed billyjoe shorted .

[aztecminer]

400 held!!!!! That means I don't have to close my short...yet.

Actually watching a wall on the wall observer thread. Whoooda thunk it?

The catch is that the was was invisible. Heluva thing watching bulls batter it over and over without making a dent.

Apparently the market had the opposite reaction that I had to the miner letter. Optimists, I guess.
I don't think it means something until it means something.

bitcoin = #bizarroworld

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[yefi]

Wow! You're full of useful links buddy ^^

That's cool. Even though I got no idea of how you make the equivalent byte/ satoshi (I mean how many bytes does my transaction take depending of the number of bitcoins i send) but it gives you a raw estimation nonetheless! Thanks!

I don't know how it is with other clients, but Core already makes this heuristic calculation for you, with a slider to increase the fee for improved block priority.

Also, Core 0.12 will introduce Opt-in RBF, which, if it becomes established, will allow you to bump the fee on an unconfirmed transaction.

[billyjoeallen]

if you know how much power the network is consuming (about a gigawatt or 1 million kilowatts)
and you know how much power costs ($0.10/kWh)
and you now how many transactions are being processed (~4TPS)
We can figure out how much each transaction really costs unsubsidized by speculators.

@ $0.10/kWh X (1,000,000 kilowatts)= $100,000/hr

4 transactions/sec X (3600seconds/hr) = 14,400 transactions/hr

$100,000/14400 transactions = $6.94 PER TRANSACTION

Feel free to check my math, but that's about how efficient the bitcoin network is currently at maximum capacity. If there are fewer transactions, it is even less efficient.  Security and decentralization are very important factors, but this is not competitive with ACH and SWIFT, or even credit cards.  The way to increase efficiency is by massively increasing the number of transactions while keeping the total power costs almost the same.

THAT is why we want to lift the blocksize limit.  We have a very very expensive, inefficient network. Security is great, but too much armor on your armored truck will limit it's cargo capacity. 

[ChartBuddy]

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[BlindMayorBitcorn]

400 held!!!!! That means I don't have to close my short...yet.

[Cconvert2G36]

if you know how much power the network is consuming (about a gigawatt or 1 million kilowatts)
and you know how much power costs ($0.10/kWh)
and you now how many transactions are being processed (~4TPS)
We can figure out how much each transaction really costs unsubsidized by speculators.

@ $0.10/kWh X (1,000,000 kilowatts)= $100,000/hr

4 transactions/sec X (3600seconds/hr) = 14,400 transactions/hr

$100,000/14400 transactions = $6.94 PER TRANSACTION

Feel free to check my math, but that's about how efficient the bitcoin network is currently at maximum capacity. If there are fewer transactions, it is even less efficient.  Security and decentralization are very important factors, but this is not competitive with ACH and SWIFT, or even credit cards.  The way to increase efficiency is by massively increasing the number of transactions while keeping the total power costs almost the same.

THAT is why we want to lift the blocksize limit.  We have a very very expensive, inefficient network. Security is great, but too much armor on your armored truck will limit it's cargo capacity.  

Your cost per kWh is a bit high (some farms in E Washington are getting 2.5-4 cents for hydro power, allegedly some chinese are getting it for near free), and your tx/s is also a bit high (2.7 or 2.8 from my observations), they balance out somewhat... you're in the ballpark.

Either fees paid go up, security goes down, or we spread the cost over more transactions with a capacity increase. If only satoshi would have considered this... smh. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1347.msg15366#msg15366)

These artificial scarcity jokers seem (pretend) to ignore the competitive advantages this bestows on altcoins/chains. Our good ol BTC isn't the only game in town, and it will only get worse unless we defend our competitive advantage and network effect vigorously.

[r0ach]

Why's it gone over $400 on stamp? Is there no real reason or has something happened to pump up the price? I can't find any giant events that are responsible for it like the US government has decided to ditch the dollar and switch to using nothing but bitcoin.

Because:

If anyone remembers my post in October, I went all in at $230 and posted a couple days later:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1200114.0

I was fully out at $44x.  Now I'm back all in at $375.


<r0ach> I believe Armstrong said gold would crater to lowest in Q1 2016, but I might be mistaken
<r0ach> and gold has bottomed then rose
<r0ach> so that might signal the end of the btc drop as well
<r0ach> meanwhile, Harvey Dent said gold would hit $700, hopefully he did not trade on his own advice
<r0ach> Faber says gold to "possibly" $2000 in 2016, so Bitcoin should do similar large gains as well
<r0ach> the fact that people in london are standing in lines in the street for gold seems like Harvey Dent commodity collapse is a tad off
<r0ach> both Bitcoin and gold are more of a currency than commodity anyway, so a deflationary collapse with
<r0ach> liquidity crisis doesn't just make them go down with other commodities
<r0ach> they can benefit from liquidity crunch just like the USD

And:

The price is likely to rise again on Monday as China gets back from holiday... and the Yuan is supposed to be devalued by like 30-40%.  The Yuan devaluation thing alone is yuge and might turn out to just be shoveling free money at you by holding BTC.

A halving + huge yuan devaluation at the same time?  Are you shitting me?  It's like god himself is trying to increase the BTC price.  Even if the blockchain stopped and never worked again it would probably go up.

Since China is the driving market currently, we will kinda get the equivalent of a secondary bonus halving at the same time as the real one.

[billyjoeallen]

if you know how much power the network is consuming (about a gigawatt or 1 million kilowatts)
and you know how much power costs ($0.10/kWh)
and you now how many transactions are being processed (~4TPS)
We can figure out how much each transaction really costs unsubsidized by speculators.

@ $0.10/kWh X (1,000,000 kilowatts)= $100,000/hr

4 transactions/sec X (3600seconds/hr) = 14,400 transactions/hr

$100,000/14400 transactions = $6.94 PER TRANSACTION

Feel free to check my math, but that's about how efficient the bitcoin network is currently at maximum capacity. If there are fewer transactions, it is even less efficient.  Security and decentralization are very important factors, but this is not competitive with ACH and SWIFT, or even credit cards.  The way to increase efficiency is by massively increasing the number of transactions while keeping the total power costs almost the same.

THAT is why we want to lift the blocksize limit.  We have a very very expensive, inefficient network. Security is great, but too much armor on your armored truck will limit it's cargo capacity.  

Your cost per kWh is a bit high (some farms in E Washington are getting 2.5-4 cents for hydro power, allegedly some chinese are getting it for near free), and your tx/s is also a bit high (2.7 or 2.8 from my observations), they balance out somewhat... you're in the ballpark.

Either fees paid go up, security goes down, or we spread the cost over more transactions with a capacity increase. If only satoshi would have considered this... smh.

These artificial scarcity jokers seem (pretend) to ignore the competitive advantages this bestows on altcoins/chains. Our good ol BTC isn't the only game in town, and it will only get worse unless we defend our competitive advantage and network effect vigorously.

Wrong. The Toomim Bros in Eastern Washington charge $95/kilowattmonth which translates to $0.132/kWh with discounts if you buy for several months.  Their cheapest package (for twelve months paid in advance) is $80 per kilowattmonth which is $0.111/kWh. If anything, I have been overly conservative in my cost calculations.

China has cheaper electricity, but it is subsidized. They are also externalizing costs through burning low grade coal in power stations with little smog control. You can expect price to get closer to actual costs over time as more stringent air pollution regulations go into effect, government budget cuts reduce the subsidy, etc.

As for TPS, I was making an argument for costs at maximum theoretical capacity.  If we use your numbers (2.8 TPS) we get a cost per transaction of 10,080 xactions/hr which makes the cost $9.92 per transaction.

Blockchain.info uses a different calculation, but they are saying it costs ~ $8.57 per transaction

https://blockchain.info/stats

I completely agree with you about how this is destroying our ability to compete and jeopardizing our first mover advantage. 

[Cconvert2G36]

Wrong. The Toomim Bros in Eastern Washington charge $95/kilowattmonth which translates to $0.132/kWh with discounts if you buy for several months.  Their cheapest package (for twelve months paid in advance) is $80 per kilowattmonth which is $0.111/kWh. If anything, I have been overly conservative in my cost calculations.
-snip-

You think the Toomims are running a business... or a charity?

I will eat my shoe if they're paying more than 5 cents.

They have a facility to run, power is only part of their costs.


Edit:

Thankfully I'll be eating sushi and not shoe leather tonight (PDF warning):
http://www.grantpud.org/component/edocman/1675-rate-schedule-14-2016/download

$ 0.01826 per kWh for the first 7,300,000 kWh
$ 0.03250 per kWh for all additional kWh

[ChartBuddy]

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[billyjoeallen]

Wrong. The Toomim Bros in Eastern Washington charge $95/kilowattmonth which translates to $0.132/kWh with discounts if you buy for several months.  Their cheapest package (for twelve months paid in advance) is $80 per kilowattmonth which is $0.111/kWh. If anything, I have been overly conservative in my cost calculations.
-snip-

You think the Toomims are running a business... or a charity?

I will eat my shoe if they're paying more than 5 cents.

They have a facility to run, power is only part of their costs.


Edit:

Thankfully I'll be eating sushi and not shoe leather tonight (PDF warning):
http://www.grantpud.org/component/edocman/1675-rate-schedule-14-2016/download

$ 0.01826 per kWh for the first 7,300,000 kWh
$ 0.03250 per kWh for all additional kWh

that's crazy cheap!  From an economist's viewpoint, that's also subsidized. The Grand Coulee Dam was built in the 1930's as a public works project. I do get your point, though. The Toomims are definitely not running a charity.

[ChartBuddy]

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[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Is Blockstream working on one of those Turing complete scripting languages for smart contracts as a sidechain at all? Are they in competition with Ethereum?

[Gyrsur]

Is Blockstream working on one of those Turing complete scripting languages for smart contracts as a sidechain at all? Are they in competition with Ethereum?

imo, there is no need for a turing complete stack language for specialized use cases like smart contracts. this is bullshit and is coming from ethereum fanboys. security is the first target all other targets have to follow.

ethereum is a hype whithout a single proof in the wild so far.

[ChartBuddy]

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