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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 9 (6.3%)
H2 2019 - 15 (10.6%)
H1 2020 - 27 (19%)
H2 2020 - 26 (18.3%)
H1 2021 - 11 (7.7%)
H2 2021 - 28 (19.7%)
H1 2022 - 6 (4.2%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.8%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 2 (1.4%)
2024 or Later - 14 (9.9%)
Total Voters: 142

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21286611 times)
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gembitz
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January 12, 2017, 05:27:56 PM

^lightning network alpha launched yesterday!  Cool  *where you find these n00bs!!!
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January 12, 2017, 05:29:33 PM

I think the bottom is in. Two legs down completes an EW abc correction. If I am wrong best estimate is we would see a $658 - $700 flash crash but as time goes on that seems less likely.

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January 12, 2017, 05:40:31 PM

The big-blockers need to fork off already so that we can get on with Project Bitcoin, Satoshi's Vision and not this twisted Kore-Coin crapola.

If we don't, price will continue to stagnate.

Bitcoin has the potential to benefit in infinite ways from the global economic turmoil that is around the corner. In this way, BTC's price could spike to unimaginable highs. But it will never happen with no scaling solution, BTC simply could not handle an increase in 100 million+ users. There is no time to wait 5 years for this imaginary "Lightning Network" to suddenly manifest from vaporware into reality.

FORK IT ALREADY.

Ahh those bloody idiots are back  Undecided

Can you do no maths? How big will the blocks need to be to "handle an increase in 100 million+ users"  Huh yeah maths are hard. Please fork off already to your alt and have fun just don't call it bitcoin to confuse people

Stop pretending that the present technology couldn't handle large blocks.

Perhaps the solution is to do both (blocksize increase and off-chain LN type deal)

But you can't just do one, or the other. Core has refused to compromise over and over, they refuse to raise the blocksize to even 2mb which pretty much everyone agrees could be very EASILY handled.

Core has shown they have no leadership skills, no vision and are motivated primarily to their own self-serving egos. They do not serve the greater whole. Furthermore, they engage in a deceptive campaign of censorship and other shady tactics to force their own side to "win", this has needlessly damaged the Bitcoin community itself by refusing to even allow certain discussions. The community has been effectively divided in this way. Can you even quantify the damage that has been done to all of us as a result of this?

You can ignore it all if you want, but it will hurt you in the end.
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January 12, 2017, 05:47:59 PM

Stop pretending that the present technology couldn't handle large blocks.

bandwidth, baby. you can have all the tech you want, but when it comes to that you're depending on a bunch of work shy guys to turn up in a van and dig up your road. some people are lucky enough to be in a regularly upgraded area, others haven't had a change since the early 2000s.

on top of that you're at the mercy of your isp limits too. a lot of places will throttle you if you have a fraction of the average node's throughput.
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January 12, 2017, 05:55:17 PM

The big-blockers need to fork off already so that we can get on with Project Bitcoin, Satoshi's Vision and not this twisted Kore-Coin crapola.

If we don't, price will continue to stagnate.

Bitcoin has the potential to benefit in infinite ways from the global economic turmoil that is around the corner. In this way, BTC's price could spike to unimaginable highs. But it will never happen with no scaling solution, BTC simply could not handle an increase in 100 million+ users. There is no time to wait 5 years for this imaginary "Lightning Network" to suddenly manifest from vaporware into reality.

FORK IT ALREADY.

Ahh those bloody idiots are back  Undecided

Can you do no maths? How big will the blocks need to be to "handle an increase in 100 million+ users"  Huh yeah maths are hard. Please fork off already to your alt and have fun just don't call it bitcoin to confuse people

Stop pretending that the present technology couldn't handle large blocks.

Perhaps the solution is to do both (blocksize increase and off-chain LN type deal)

But you can't just do one, or the other. Core has refused to compromise over and over, they refuse to raise the blocksize to even 2mb which pretty much everyone agrees could be very EASILY handled.

Core has shown they have no leadership skills, no vision and are motivated primarily to their own self-serving egos. They do not serve the greater whole. Furthermore, they engage in a deceptive campaign of censorship and other shady tactics to force their own side to "win", this has needlessly damaged the Bitcoin community itself by refusing to even allow certain discussions. The community has been effectively divided in this way. Can you even quantify the damage that has been done to all of us as a result of this?

You can ignore it all if you want, but it will hurt you in the end.

Again no maths on blocksize that can "handle an increase in 100 million+ users". Sound like a butthurt miner shill.

PS: I'm all for a 2mb blocks + segwit. Let's just enable it already. Only something telling me that miners won't be happy with that either  Roll Eyes
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January 12, 2017, 06:07:02 PM

Long term support for the bottom:
<pic>

Descending wedge in the shorter term:



Descending wedges are typically reversal patterns, and we would have to break a strong support line to defy expectations upon pattern resolution. The support line will force the shorter term descending wedge to terminate before its forced termination at convergence. The two trends converge by 1/18 14:00.

I am expecting one more leg downwards, constrained by both the wedge and support.
If these hold, then the lowest low would be $686.


Some solid TA for once. Wink Didn't catch that wedge myself

One thing I like about it is, the top of that wedge hasn't really been defined on-volume yet. So one way it could invalidate the short term trend would be to reshape itself into a downward channel, rather than wedge.

...and then we have transitioned into the cup and handle pattern :-)
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January 12, 2017, 06:15:04 PM



Many thanks for the cheap coins.

Tzupy, where is the final leg of the sell off? I hoped to get some even cheaper.

If this was an ABC, then it's probably completed the C, and now it's building a triangle. Support could be tested over the next days, so a bit cheaper than right now is possible.
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January 12, 2017, 06:23:07 PM


If this was an ABC, then it's probably completed the C, and now it's building a triangle. Support could be tested over the next days, so a bit cheaper than right now is possible.

Aw c'mon mastertzup - you were willing to throw out $660 when we were at $1100 and many called you crazy!

I'd love to know whether the past few days market activity has shifted your number up, down, or unchanged.
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January 12, 2017, 06:28:55 PM

Stop pretending that the present technology couldn't handle large blocks.

Stop pretending you know what you're talking about. There are hundreds of independent developers busy writing and testing code and weighing and discussing all the possible options. Out of that complicated process it was determined that Segwit is our best option right now and that large blocks (>4MB) are too risky for the stability and decentralized nature of the network at this point. After Segwit is deployed it will also be safer to increase the blocksize as Segwit also solves the quadratic scaling of hashed data. Hard forking now to larger blocks without first activating Segwit and solving quadratic hash scaling is just stupid and you'll also never get consensus for that. So why don't you stop complaining about Core and actually look and try to understand what it is they're doing? The divide in the community is purely based on ignorance and conspiracy thinking.
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January 12, 2017, 06:31:08 PM


...

It's hilarious to see Huobi trading at $25 less than the western exchanges. Let's see how long that lasts.

if you ask me it should stay that way 4ever. should be pegged or something. the chinese exchanger ruin my health...  Cheesy
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January 12, 2017, 06:52:42 PM


If this was an ABC, then it's probably completed the C, and now it's building a triangle. Support could be tested over the next days, so a bit cheaper than right now is possible.

Aw c'mon mastertzup - you were willing to throw out $660 when we were at $1100 and many called you crazy!

I'd love to know whether the past few days market activity has shifted your number up, down, or unchanged.

Not enough data right now to make an educated guess, I need to find out more accurately how fast the market is moving (or mistake a subwave for a wave).
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January 12, 2017, 07:06:20 PM


Hey, I've just noticed a pattern that this crash fits into, but it's only visible at very long range. (You need a big screen preferably to see this - pull the browser page out wide if you can to grow the image to full size. Sorry I couldn't get the pattern very visible at small scale).

This correction may not be as bearish as we think and seems to fall into a "family" of profit taking moves associated with the rise that started back around July 2015.

It appears that every 7-8 months (every 4-5 months earlier in the rise) there's a big profit take like this which always happens at the top of a spike when the market gets ahead of itself. (I call them "propellor corrections" because they look like an aircraft propellor from side on since the price corrects to about the same distance below the trend line as the 'overheat' got above it). All the same there's a longer, underlying trend where the upwards revaluation grows steadily steeper, even despite these crashes along the way.

When the pressure-relief gasket blows on these bubbles it always corrects to just below the top of the previous propellor pattern. Same every time but increasing in size. Then there's a period of consolidation, followed by a slow rise, then steep rise and another gasket-blow.

Each time the correction gets bigger, but it still seems to stick to the rule of dropping to just below the last spike so that the growth trend isn't broken. I now think I'm not the only one to have noticed this and that big players are actively trading this pattern, watching for the overheat-spike and knowing exactly when to profit take, driving that bubble into full temporary reverse with shorts for maximum profit. But they also must know how far to take it because the last spike gives the reference level.

This one was perfectly timed - 7 months exactly.

Judging by its size and perfectly placed timing, we could be in for a very big rise over the next 8 months if the long term trend continues because the vertical distance between each "overheat" phase increases each time by about 60% to 70%.

Just sayin. Context is everything Wink



Interesting graphic
I wonder if those vertical steps correspond very well with the fibonacci sequence.
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January 12, 2017, 07:08:20 PM

Bitcoin's gone up to $1080 in India. That might account for the little rise beyond $800 elsewhere.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/while-misleading-information-on-china-stalls-price-bitcoin-hits-1080-in-india

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January 12, 2017, 07:08:33 PM

The big-blockers need to fork off already so that we can get on with Project Bitcoin, Satoshi's Vision and not this twisted Kore-Coin crapola.

If we don't, price will continue to stagnate.

Bitcoin has the potential to benefit in infinite ways from the global economic turmoil that is around the corner. In this way, BTC's price could spike to unimaginable highs. But it will never happen with no scaling solution, BTC simply could not handle an increase in 100 million+ users. There is no time to wait 5 years for this imaginary "Lightning Network" to suddenly manifest from vaporware into reality.

FORK IT ALREADY.

Ahh those bloody idiots are back  Undecided

Can you do no maths? How big will the blocks need to be to "handle an increase in 100 million+ users"  Huh yeah maths are hard. Please fork off already to your alt and have fun just don't call it bitcoin to confuse people

Stop pretending that the present technology couldn't handle large blocks.

Perhaps the solution is to do both (blocksize increase and off-chain LN type deal)

But you can't just do one, or the other. Core has refused to compromise over and over, they refuse to raise the blocksize to even 2mb which pretty much everyone agrees could be very EASILY handled.

Core has shown they have no leadership skills, no vision and are motivated primarily to their own self-serving egos. They do not serve the greater whole. Furthermore, they engage in a deceptive campaign of censorship and other shady tactics to force their own side to "win", this has needlessly damaged the Bitcoin community itself by refusing to even allow certain discussions. The community has been effectively divided in this way. Can you even quantify the damage that has been done to all of us as a result of this?

You can ignore it all if you want, but it will hurt you in the end.

+1!

LN is inevitable and desirable ( very desirable )
and same goes for bigger blocks...
the solution is so obviously "both" its not even funny.
segwit softfork is a magic trick, if you dont know how its done you're amazed, if you do you're unimpressed.
we need simple incress and simple segwit.
we need these things hardforked in, and we need to utilize synthetic forks to do that gracefully.
we need a to foster an dev environment which enables free choice, not free to use core0.12.1 or core0.13.1
the devs are here to service the network, not the other way around.

what the world wants the world gets. only question is who will provide.
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January 12, 2017, 07:15:15 PM

The big-blockers need to fork off already so that we can get on with Project Bitcoin, Satoshi's Vision and not this twisted Kore-Coin crapola.

If we don't, price will continue to stagnate.

Bitcoin has the potential to benefit in infinite ways from the global economic turmoil that is around the corner. In this way, BTC's price could spike to unimaginable highs. But it will never happen with no scaling solution, BTC simply could not handle an increase in 100 million+ users. There is no time to wait 5 years for this imaginary "Lightning Network" to suddenly manifest from vaporware into reality.

FORK IT ALREADY.

Ahh those bloody idiots are back  Undecided

Can you do no maths? How big will the blocks need to be to "handle an increase in 100 million+ users"  Huh yeah maths are hard. Please fork off already to your alt and have fun just don't call it bitcoin to confuse people

Stop pretending that the present technology couldn't handle large blocks.

Perhaps the solution is to do both (blocksize increase and off-chain LN type deal)

But you can't just do one, or the other. Core has refused to compromise over and over, they refuse to raise the blocksize to even 2mb which pretty much everyone agrees could be very EASILY handled.

Core has shown they have no leadership skills, no vision and are motivated primarily to their own self-serving egos. They do not serve the greater whole. Furthermore, they engage in a deceptive campaign of censorship and other shady tactics to force their own side to "win", this has needlessly damaged the Bitcoin community itself by refusing to even allow certain discussions. The community has been effectively divided in this way. Can you even quantify the damage that has been done to all of us as a result of this?

You can ignore it all if you want, but it will hurt you in the end.

+1!

LN is inevitable and desirable ( very desirable )
and same goes for bigger blocks...
the solution is so obviously "both" its not even funny.
segwit softfork is a magic trick, if you dont know how its done you're amazed, if you do you're unimpressed.
we need simple incress and simple segwit.
we need these things hardforked in, and we need to utilize synthetic forks to do that gracefully.
we need a to foster an dev environment which enables free choice, not free to use core0.12.1 or core0.13.1
the devs are here to service the network, not the other way around.

what the world wants the world gets. only question is who will provide.

 Roll Eyes Is that the latest keyword for BU? Or would you be happy with 2MB block+segwit?

Edit: Or why not get your nick back and put up a new poll? For or against 2MB HF + segwit
Killerpotleaf
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January 12, 2017, 07:30:26 PM

The big-blockers need to fork off already so that we can get on with Project Bitcoin, Satoshi's Vision and not this twisted Kore-Coin crapola.

If we don't, price will continue to stagnate.

Bitcoin has the potential to benefit in infinite ways from the global economic turmoil that is around the corner. In this way, BTC's price could spike to unimaginable highs. But it will never happen with no scaling solution, BTC simply could not handle an increase in 100 million+ users. There is no time to wait 5 years for this imaginary "Lightning Network" to suddenly manifest from vaporware into reality.

FORK IT ALREADY.

Ahh those bloody idiots are back  Undecided

Can you do no maths? How big will the blocks need to be to "handle an increase in 100 million+ users"  Huh yeah maths are hard. Please fork off already to your alt and have fun just don't call it bitcoin to confuse people

Stop pretending that the present technology couldn't handle large blocks.

Perhaps the solution is to do both (blocksize increase and off-chain LN type deal)

But you can't just do one, or the other. Core has refused to compromise over and over, they refuse to raise the blocksize to even 2mb which pretty much everyone agrees could be very EASILY handled.

Core has shown they have no leadership skills, no vision and are motivated primarily to their own self-serving egos. They do not serve the greater whole. Furthermore, they engage in a deceptive campaign of censorship and other shady tactics to force their own side to "win", this has needlessly damaged the Bitcoin community itself by refusing to even allow certain discussions. The community has been effectively divided in this way. Can you even quantify the damage that has been done to all of us as a result of this?

You can ignore it all if you want, but it will hurt you in the end.

+1!

LN is inevitable and desirable ( very desirable )
and same goes for bigger blocks...
the solution is so obviously "both" its not even funny.
segwit softfork is a magic trick, if you dont know how its done you're amazed, if you do you're unimpressed.
we need simple incress and simple segwit.
we need these things hardforked in, and we need to utilize synthetic forks to do that gracefully.
we need a to foster an dev environment which enables free choice, not free to use core0.12.1 or core0.13.1
the devs are here to service the network, not the other way around.

what the world wants the world gets. only question is who will provide.

 Roll Eyes Is that the latest keyword for BU? Or would you be happy with 2MB block+segwit?
i want non-magical BS incress with simplest possible TX malleability fix.
to me, market driven BS to me is a must, we must allow a small % of nodes ( like 15-20% ) to cap block size, this will create a fee market which perfectly balances # of TX and fee/TX, to yield the most total fees miners can get given TX demand.
a static cap will always badly balance fee pressure.
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January 12, 2017, 08:21:56 PM

Bitcoin's gone up to $1080 in India. That might account for the little rise beyond $800 elsewhere.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/while-misleading-information-on-china-stalls-price-bitcoin-hits-1080-in-india



Now it's over $820 in the West, must be India driving it up.
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January 12, 2017, 08:23:21 PM

Oh no we are crashing upwards again..
900? ATH? new ATH ?
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January 12, 2017, 08:26:19 PM

Oh no we are crashing upwards again..
900? ATH? new ATH ?

No I don't hope so.
If it goes too high it will have to pull downwards after...
I hope it goes for a small up trend. 800 for today then a slow rise to 850 or 900.
Damn I would be perfectly happy with a 850. Even just a 800 but stable would be cool IMHO
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January 12, 2017, 08:38:29 PM


If this was an ABC, then it's probably completed the C, and now it's building a triangle. Support could be tested over the next days, so a bit cheaper than right now is possible.

Aw c'mon mastertzup - you were willing to throw out $660 when we were at $1100 and many called you crazy!

I'd love to know whether the past few days market activity has shifted your number up, down, or unchanged.


If u keep listening to this guy... some day Tzupy will F'U. guud! Cheesy Cheesy

Just take everything he says with a pinch of salt.. Smiley
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