Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I am feeling something from your posts, Toxic poxit.

Seems like every few days your chart prognostics are shifting with the prevailing winds.  

UP then SIDEWAYS then UP then DOWN then SIDEWAYS then UP then DOWN then UP then SIDEWAYS and now seemingly DOWN.  

Kind of like rollercoaster.....



Makes me feel like this:

snip

Are you looking to me to post charts that you can make investment strategies from?

You do whatever you want in terms of your posts to this thread.  I am just disclosing the feelings that I am having from such.    

I thought this was a speculation forum.

Good point.  This thread does retain some of those kinds of speculation qualities, especially, since such thread is in the speculation section, and over the years, I have witnessed some "speculation" posts, other than yours.  

If you want my professional opinion on charts and a strategy guide email me at toxic2040@pm.me

I feel comfortable with the system that I have already developed for myself, and seems like I would devolve into a kind of bat-shit crazy status if I were to deviate too far from the approach and methodology that I am currently attempting.

I charge about .06btc per hour at current rates.

Sounds like a decent rate that might work for some folks, but not this folk.  

You want me to give my honest opinions? They change as does the market.

Honesty is a good quality.

You want me to be a cheerleader...see above.

Cheerleading can be good, too....  

Bitcoin is doing what it always does. What ever the fuck it wants.

Yes, and there are several ways to attempt to read the tea leaves, including your methodologies, which surely could be worse.

The above statement is largely a backhanded compliment.

I think the consensus is a non-issue so far and many are waiting around for a pump to acquire more coin.

Well, yeah, as far as I can tell, consensus was kind of over-blown event, especially after hearing about some of the on-the-ground reports about what was actually going on at such event - which was a whole hell-of-a lot of pumping of shit coins, which would not necessarily automatically result in some kind of bitcoin price rise, as was being proposed in a lot of circles, perhaps even in this WO thread circle by some.

Markets do not work that way. If everyone thinks it going up it most likely will not, instead it will do the opposite and pull the rug out from under you. Just to mess you up.

Yes, that is true.  If we have a lot of hype, then perhaps the opposite might end up happening... I surely agree about that phenomenon in this bitcoin and crypto space.

Surprisingly, I am somewhat comforted with the fact there has not been a huge pump and dump so far...it shows sign of a maturing market. We are still not there imho though..hence..
I will see you all sometime next year. ciao.

So?  We are going to be rid of you for more than 6 months-ish?

I doubt it.  Sounds like you are now subscribing to the theory that we are in a early to mid-2014 like scenario rather than being in a early 2013 like scenario.  Seems like you are arriving at such tentative conclusion much too early, and likely we are going to be seeing you around these parts in the coming months, if not sooner, when the price likely ends up moving a bit more than you had anticipated (or perhaps after you get a little sleep in order to not be bordering on any kind of quasi-rage quit.. and who needs more drama queens.. we gots ourselfies enough of those in this thread without you joining such drama queen wannabe club).   

[PoolMinor]

See you all sometime next year.

It's too early to panic or decide either way toxic, because what we are seeing at the moment is no more than a reasonable correction on the weekly chart that's been expected for a while since we've been going up more or less non-stop (on the weekly) from 6500 to nearly 10k.

I see 2 possible scenarios playing out here.

We've now retraced around 50% of that recovery and the weekly RSI is starting to approach the oversold region (7% to go conventionally). So it could either recover somewhere in the 7k to 8k area and we'd be ok to continue a healthy growth (scenario 1) - or it could continue straight down to the main support level at 6500. In the latter case the pattern would seriously start to look like scenario 2, i.e. a descending triangle pattern hammering onto that 6500 support. If it breaks it then we're looking at the next support levels being 5800 and 4500.

(The two graphics below are exactly the same chart just looked at 2 different ways).

The bottom chart is painted slightly more bearish than it is in reality. The triangles actually have slightly ascending bottoms which indicates a reluctance to penetrate that support. Looks more like consecutive retests to me. Lets see what it does from here.

[imghttps://i.imgur.com/Vcbgxm8.png[/img]http://[imghttps://i.imgur.com/oUwd4Mj.png[/img]

I realize you were not writing the above for me to respond.

I feel this dip won't be that strong but I do believe there will be a run to around ~13K before the long cold real bear market. My bottom price prediction is nearer to ~6500 for the very near future. by June 10

[toknormal]

I feel this dip won't be that strong but I do believe there will be a run to around ~13K before the long cold real bear market. My bottom price prediction is nearer to ~6500 for the very near future. by June 10

Care to explain your basis for such wide spreads ?

Since the bubble, we've been trading largely into a corner with lower highs and higher lows. That would suggest that we'll break out in one direction or the other, but not one first, then reverse all the way back beyond the lowest low. If it broke out up to your 13k level we'd have by then have had many successful retests of the 6500 support.

The "long cold bear market" of 2014/15 happened because there was no shoulder support for the December 2013 peak as there is now. It therefore had to retrace all the way back to the April 2013 266 high to find support.

[PoolMinor]

I feel this dip won't be that strong but I do believe there will be a run to around ~13K before the long cold real bear market. My bottom price prediction is nearer to ~6500 for the very near future. by June 10

Care to explain your basis for such wide spreads ?

Since the bubble, we've been trading largely into a corner with lower highs and higher lows. That would suggest that we'll break out in one direction or the other, but not one first, then reverse all the way back beyond the lowest low. If it broke out up to your 13k level we'd have by then have had many successful retests of the 6500 support.

The "long cold bear market" of 2014/15 happened because there was no shoulder support for the December 2013 peak as there is now. It therefore had to retrace all the way back to the April 2013 266 high to find support.

The prediction in simplest terms is another bull trap late June - July then a slow demise back to ~$2000 range over 7-9 months; but first during this current dip we will go as low as $6500.


Edit:

I am sure you do realize that in Bitcoin there are more factors at stake. The price of mining 1 Bitcoin definitely is not $8000, it is much less. The halvening re-adjustment period is over. There is nothing to support the price right now, and during the next price rise it will be to capture as many fools as possible. I will be buying as I have already for the next year, any price under $20,000 is a great price when we are going to $100,000+

From Feb 2018

[jojo69]

double plus ungood

[TERA2]

i'm a very not good with computer

It's funny you mention that.  Out of the large section of people I know from bitcoin, this is how it breaks down:

IQ 80 or lower:  Thinks bitcoin is some type of pyramid scam or poorly designed centralized garbage that will implode

IQ 95-105:        Thinks bitcoin is the greatest invention since the wheel and will be the world reserve currency

IQ 110-140:      Thinks bitcoin is some type of pyramid scam or poorly designed centralized garbage that will implode

Mine is above 140; Where does that put me?

[Torque]

Go Wyoming!

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/pro-business-wyoming-changes-cryptocurrency-rules-to-entice-entrepreneurs

[bitserve]

i'm a very not good with computer

It's funny you mention that.  Out of the large section of people I know from bitcoin, this is how it breaks down:

IQ 80 or lower:  Thinks bitcoin is some type of pyramid scam or poorly designed centralized garbage that will implode

IQ 95-105:        Thinks bitcoin is the greatest invention since the wheel and will be the world reserve currency

IQ 110-140:      Thinks bitcoin is some type of pyramid scam or poorly designed centralized garbage that will implode

Mine is above 140; Where does that put me?

It puts you in the awkward situation of asking r0ach for classification.

[gentlemand]

Mine is above 140; Where does that put me?

Autistic.

Does anyone really rate IQ as any type of measurement beyond the ability to pass IQ tests?

I did a proper one at 17-18 and outgunned Einstein. You'd think that would set me up for the future command of my self built space station. Instead I decided sitting around would be a better thing to do and after a few decades I've just started to get into my stride with it.

Gotta go. Switching chairs now.

[Torque]

Mine is above 140; Where does that put me?

Autistic.

I would bet bitcoins to donuts that Satoshi's IQ was in the 110-140 range. Along with all the core devs.

So once again, r0ach can rightly fuck off.

[TERA2]

Mine is above 140; Where does that put me?

Autistic.

Do you mean Aspergers? The autistic are low functioning and have below normal intelligence. I have a newphew with autism and he's having a lot of trouble getting through school and life and he's nothing like me and my aspergers apart from a few a-social personality traits we can somewhat relate with. I know a lot of people think of rain man and his ability to count numbers and such, but rain man's IQ was only 87..

Mine is above 140; Where does that put me?

Autistic.

Does anyone really rate IQ as any type of measurement beyond the ability to pass IQ tests?

I did a proper one at 17-18 and outgunned Einstein. You'd think that would set me up for the future command of my self built space station. Instead I decided sitting around would be a better thing to do and after a few decades I've just started to get into my stride with it.

Gotta go. Switching chairs now.

At some point too much human intelligence can become counterproductive or destructive, or lead us to realize that we don't need to do anything useful to be happy. Even those geniuses who accomplished great things were often some of the unhappiest people. There is a fine line between genius and madness. Some animals are smarter than humans yet all they do is walk or swim around.

[Rosewater Foundation]

Screw you Bitcoin, I'm going home.

[the artful bodger]

Mine is above 140; Where does that put me?

Autistic.

Does anyone really rate IQ as any type of measurement beyond the ability to pass IQ tests?

I did a proper one at 17-18 and outgunned Einstein.

What was Einstein's IQ, and what was yours at 17-18?

[gentlemand]

What was Einstein's IQ, and what was yours at 17-18?

His was supposedly 160. Mine was more. But I read just now that 162 is the maximum score, however there are people out there with an IQ of 230 so that must mean that their intelligence is infinite so someone glued an imaginary number to it to reward them.

[the artful bodger]

What was Einstein's IQ, and what was yours at 17-18?

His was supposedly 160. Mine was more. But I read just now that 162 is the maximum score, however there are people out there with an IQ of 230 so that must mean that their intelligence is infinite so someone glued an imaginary number to it to reward them.

Did you get the maximum score, or higher than that?

[TERA2]

Mine is above 140; Where does that put me?

Autistic.

I would bet bitcoins to donuts that Satoshi's IQ was in the 110-140 range. Along with all the core devs.

So once again, r0ach can rightly fuck off.

Did satoshi and the core devs build bitcoin because the thought it was going to moon and be the new world reserve currency or just because it was a fun tech project?

[gentlemand]

Did you get the maximum score, or higher than that?

The examiner bloke never said anything about a max score and I didn't think there was such a thing. The 162 thing must be balls.

Anyway the last time I did a less formal one I scored 73 which smells far more realistic, though I can easily believe my intelligence has more than halved since those golden days. 

[the artful bodger]

Did you get the maximum score, or higher than that?

The examiner bloke never said anything about a max score and I didn't think there was such a thing. The 162 thing must be balls.

Anyway the last time I did a less formal one I scored 73 which smells far more realistic, though I can easily believe my intelligence has more than halved since those golden days. 

That good feeling you get every time you have a drink comes from brain cells dying. Most of us have probably killed a lot of brain cells since we were 17-18.

[Phenoca]

I read just now that 162 is the maximum score

Yeah they won't let you score above a certain threshold. If you score above 160 in Canada then they either round down or disqualify you (in my experience).

This much volatility in bitcoin price is going to be good for Wallstreet so that they can advertise their upcoming centralized crypto as being more stable than decentralized crypto, regardless of where the price goes from here. Bankers gotta lend. Guess I'll keep buying until I run out of fiat.

[JayJuanGee]

I wonder where r0ach is getting the energy from to do what he's doing. He clearly has 0 followers, noone rarely agrees with him and he is being bashed nonstop. Or does he really think he is smarter than everyone else and he is genuinely trying to convert us from stupidity of cryptoworld to the high intelligence of silver trading? Lol.

Just wondering, maybe I should take a book of psychology to understand someone who seems smart but is so utterly stupid.

Many woulda-been, coulda-been Bitcoin millionaires become bitter, anti-Bitcoin zealots.

I got into the boat in 2013, but sold all my stash in 2015 because of reasons, would be a multi-millionaire now didn't get me bitter though, that's just life.

But back I am, hopefully smarter this time, started to rebuy in Nov 2017.

I am pretty much in the same boat as you. I also started to collect last year in May/June which was way before the $20k pump but obviously I didn't buy enough. I became serious after this February...

You should know however, being serious this time won't guarantee you another 10x pump. Well it will happen eventually but might not happen in the time frame you are (we are) expecting. Most people here expect another 10x in the next 2 years which might be too optimistic.

We may have to wait at least 5 years to get our lambo's and I am actually OK with this.

Seems to me that a more sound mindset would be to invest into bitcoin based on your consideration that bitcoin remains amongst the best of long term investments, rather than putting your money somewhere else, in spite of its volatility.  Sure, my assertion here does not necessarily mean that you gamble or that you place more that you are able to comfortably lose and that you make sure that you have all your living expenses covered while you are making your investments into bitcoin.

 Therefore,  don't be relying upon or expecting to acquire any free Lambos because of your bitcoin investment, even in 5 years; however, if you prepare your investment, and you take decent stakes into bitcoin, then there are decent odds that you might benefit way beyond your expectations - which ends up "luckily" falling into the easy Lambo acquisition price territory....