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Question: How much of your corn do you plan on cashing out in the next massive bull run?
None - 24 (18.9%)
1-10% - 16 (12.6%)
11-20% - 15 (11.8%)
21-30% - 18 (14.2%)
31-40% - 7 (5.5%)
41-50% - 14 (11%)
51-60% - 9 (7.1%)
61-70% - 5 (3.9%)
71-80% - 4 (3.1%)
81-90% - 2 (1.6%)
91-99% - 3 (2.4%)
100% - 10 (7.9%)
Total Voters: 127

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21788585 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (148 posts by 37 users deleted.)
realr0ach
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May 07, 2018, 08:40:19 PM

words and stuff

So tell me if I am understanding your claim correctly. You are agreeing with munger that people who use crypto currencies are immoral because they have failed to do the requite research necessary in order to arrive at the same conclusions you have?

I stand by the fact that it's objectively 100% impossible to create a decentralized digital currency.  If people are claiming a dogcoin or bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency while trying to hock it off onto someone, then I claim they're dishonest by using promotional terms they don't even know if they're true or not.  They're unqualified to make these claims in other words due to asymmetric information distribution.

Now we're in a semantics lawyer game of:  Does taking someone else's fraudulent word for it from a pumper like Andreas Antonopolous make you party to a scam?

If Andreas Antonopolous starts trying to hock off uranium based suntan lotion to people and you sign up as a reseller, I don't think pleading stupidity is going to save you.  Resellers are usually held accountable for their actions and you can't really get away with saying "well, I had no idea if bitcoin actually was decentralized or not", or "I had no idea uranium suntan lotion was a bad idea".  Negligence is an actual thing.  If you're unqualified to decypher what the objective reality of the situation is, it usually lands you in hot water trying to make unsubstantiated claims in a business transaction.
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Anon136
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May 07, 2018, 08:41:54 PM

words and stuff

So tell me if I am understanding your claim correctly. You are agreeing with munger that people who use crypto currencies are immoral because they have failed to do the requite research necessary in order to arrive at the same conclusions you have?

I stand by the fact that it's objectively 100% impossible to create a decentralized digital currency.  If people are claiming a dogcoin or bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency while trying to hock it off onto someone, then I claim they're dishonest by using promotional terms they don't even know if they're true or not.  They're unqualified to make these claims in other words due to asymmetric information distribution.

Now we're in a semantics lawyer game of:  Does taking someone else's fraudulent word for it from a pumper like Andreas Antonopolous make you party to a scam?

If Andreas Antonopolous starts trying to hock off uranium based suntan lotion to people and you sign up as a reseller, I don't think pleading stupidity is going to save you.  Resellers are usually held accountable for their actions and you can't really get away with saying "well, I had no idea if bitcoin actually was decentralized or not", or "I had no idea uranium suntan lotion was a bad idea".  Negligence is an actual thing.  If you're unqualified to decypher what the objective reality of the situation is, you will land in hot water.
You're boring.
El duderino_
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May 07, 2018, 08:44:08 PM

9200 is broken

9400 as well
where does either 1 of the 2 put us ??
El duderino_
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May 07, 2018, 08:45:14 PM

Billions and silicon valley are both great TV

for this moment DO NOT forget la casa de papel (or money heist ) ......
savetherainforest
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May 07, 2018, 08:46:17 PM

https://forkdrop.io/ lots of forks




God F^cking Damn... Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy ... STAWHP!!! PLZ!!! FFS... I'm starting to become allergic to forks... Smiley

Btw... price seems to want to go a few hundred bucks down... then UP! UP! UP!.. Cheesy Cheesy
El duderino_
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May 07, 2018, 08:47:22 PM

QUICK list 12288 is finisht GOOD LUCK   WO's

16/04/2018 serveria.com Sad
27/04/2018 BinaryReign Sad
28/04/2018 Toxic2040 Sad
29/04/2018 BobLawblaw Sad
30/04/2018 RayX12 Sad
05/05/2018 kaicrypzen Sad
07/05/2018 InvoKing Sad
08/05/2018 ChinkyEyes
13/05/2018 mfort312
15/05/2018 Paashaas
16/05/2018 player99
17/05/2018 bikerleszno
19/05/2018 Bitcoinaire
20/05/2018 willope
21/05/2018 rafanadal
22/05/2018 strawbs
24/05/2018 yonton
25/05/2018 JimboToronto
26/05/2018 Colonel Panic
29/05/2018 ivomm
30/05/2018 Lontonbit
31/05/2018 BTCMILLIONAIRE
01/06/2018 RoomBot
02/06/2018 rjclarke2000
03/06/2018 oblox
04/06/2018 wachtwoord
05/06/2018 Wekkel
08/06/2018 hisslyness
09/06/2018 LodisMcguire
11/06/2018 Raja_MBZ
12/06/2018 bitcoinPsycho
13/06/2018 erre
14/06/2018 vroom
15/06/2018 d_eddie
16/06/2018 coralreefer
18/06/2018 Robin,Hood
20/06/2018 rolling
22/06/2018 Biodom
23/06/2018 Dunkelheit667
25/06/2018 bones261
26/06/2018 Arriemoller
28/06/2018 klaaas
30/06/2018 DarkStar_
01/07/2018 o_e_l_e_o
02/07/2018 jojo69
03/07/2018 Karatma1
04/07/2018 Elwar
13/07/2018 sirazimuth
14/07/2018 Ludwig Von
21/07/2018 Lauda
22/07/2018 LFC_Bitcoin
26/07/2018 Icygreen
02/08/2018 fragout
03/08/2018 supremnoob
06/08/2018 cAPSLOCK
08/08/2018 infofront
10/08/2018 HairyMaclairy
15/08/2018 Phil_S
16/08/2018 Rosewater Foundation
17/08/2018 B1tUnl0ck3r
19/08/2018 Imbatman
21/08/2018 BitcoinBunny
27/08/2018 soullyG
28/08/2018 RealMachasm
29/08/2018 STT
04/09/2018 flynn
08/09/2018 xhomerx10
09/09/2018 vapourminer
11/09/2018 Dakustaking76
20/09/2018 Digigami
22/09/2018 Agapios
26/09/2018 itod
30/09/2018 DeathAngel
12/10/2018 IntroVert
15/10/2018 explorer
18/10/2018 Searing
26/10/2018 kurious
09/11/2018 fabiorem
15/11/2018 bitserve
20/11/2018 Globb0
22/11/2018 Last of the V8s
01/12/2018 Alexander_Z
07/03/2019 CoinCube
15/04/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
20/06/2019 bitebits
13/12/2019 nikauforest
10/04/2020 yefi
05/09/2020 samson   
23/06/2021 fortune143             
realr0ach
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May 07, 2018, 08:47:46 PM

words and stuff

So tell me if I am understanding your claim correctly. You are agreeing with munger that people who use crypto currencies are immoral because they have failed to do the requite research necessary in order to arrive at the same conclusions you have?

I stand by the fact that it's objectively 100% impossible to create a decentralized digital currency.  If people are claiming a dogcoin or bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency while trying to hock it off onto someone, then I claim they're dishonest by using promotional terms they don't even know if they're true or not.  They're unqualified to make these claims in other words due to asymmetric information distribution.

Now we're in a semantics lawyer game of:  Does taking someone else's fraudulent word for it from a pumper like Andreas Antonopolous make you party to a scam?

If Andreas Antonopolous starts trying to hock off uranium based suntan lotion to people and you sign up as a reseller, I don't think pleading stupidity is going to save you.  Resellers are usually held accountable for their actions and you can't really get away with saying "well, I had no idea if bitcoin actually was decentralized or not", or "I had no idea uranium suntan lotion was a bad idea".  Negligence is an actual thing.  If you're unqualified to decypher what the objective reality of the situation is, it usually lands you in hot water trying to make unsubstantiated claims in a business transaction.
You're boring.

It doesn't seem like you like the fact I pointed out bitcoin did not originate from the big bang and in fact came from a single distributor persona, making everyone who dabbles in it a reseller who is required to do their own due diligence to know whether they're defrauding people or not.
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May 07, 2018, 08:50:52 PM

I’ve been away for five days. I see we have gone from $9100 to $9400 which is nice.  Also about 45 pages to read.

I can summarize for you:
Global Warming?
Bcashers being bcashers
Bitcoin died again
Something about Berkshire Hathaway selling baby brains
Oh, and Jimbo's back in the jungle

Thank you that’s very convenient.  It’s so nice to find things just where you left them.
El duderino_
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May 07, 2018, 09:01:50 PM

Well, not seeing us testing $10k by mid-week at this rate.

It's OK, we're still going to reach $12280 *on 11th June. Grin
sorry to break it to you but I think you'll find it will be the 12th june

ain't got no problem with those dates  Wink
realr0ach
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May 07, 2018, 09:10:56 PM

ain't got no problem with those dates  Wink

Last of the V8s
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May 07, 2018, 09:15:36 PM
Last edit: May 07, 2018, 09:33:53 PM by Last of the V8s

Bcashers being bcashers

Yes they studiously avoided addressing the https://www.bitcoinabc.org/2018-05-07-incident-report/ 'trusted miners' fiasco which was linked here earlier on.
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May 07, 2018, 09:33:39 PM

http://thesaker.is/the-warmakers/
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May 07, 2018, 09:33:47 PM

Quote
This release was provided to verified Bitcoin Cash miners to forward to trusted miners once they had upgraded.

What the actual fuck? Hahhaha
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May 07, 2018, 09:39:35 PM
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Some "research" from the FRB of San Fransisco.

https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/el2018-12.pdf

Quote
How Futures Trading Changed Bitcoin Prices

Galina Hale, Arvind Krishnamurthy, Marianna Kudlyak, and Patrick Shultz

From Bitcoin’s inception in 2009 through mid-2017, its price remained under $4,000. In the second half of 2017, it climbed dramatically to nearly $20,000, but descended rapidly starting in mid-December. The peak price coincided with the introduction of bitcoin futures trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The rapid run-up and subsequent fall in the price after the introduction of futures does not appear to be a coincidence. Rather, it is consistent with trading behavior that typically accompanies the introduction of futures markets for an asset.

Bitcoin is a “cryptocurrency”—a digital currency that is not backed by any tangible or intangible assets of intrinsic value. After its launch in January 2009, the dollar price of a bitcoin remained under $1,150 until February 22, 2017, when it increased exponentially for about 10 months, as shown in Figure 1. This explosive growth ended on December 17, 2017, when bitcoin reached its peak price of $19,511. Notably these dynamics aren’t driven by overall market fluctuations, as shown by comparison with the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index.

Figure 1
Bitcoin prices and S&P 500 stock index

Bitcoin value

Source: Bloomberg.

The peak bitcoin price coincided with the day bitcoin futures started trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). In this Economic Letter, we argue that these price dynamics are consistent with the rise and collapse of the home financing market in the 2000s, as explained in Fostel and Geanakoplos (2012). They suggested that the mortgage boom was driven by financial innovations in securitization and groupings of bonds that attracted optimistic investors; the subsequent bust was driven by the creation of instruments that allowed pessimistic investors to bet against the housing market. Similarly, the advent of blockchain introduced a new financial instrument, bitcoin, which optimistic investors bid up, until the launch of bitcoin futures allowed pessimists to enter the market, which contributed to the reversal of the bitcoin price dynamics.
What is Bitcoin?

Bitcoin with a capital B is a decentralized network that relies on a peer-to-peer system, rather than banks or credit card companies, to verify transactions using the digital currency known as bitcoin with a lowercase b. The first bitcoin was “mined” in 2009 after the anonymous person or group named Satoshi Nakamoto published a proof of concept for a currency that uses cryptography, rather than reliable third parties (Nakamoto 2008). Blockchain, the underlying infrastructure and ledger of bitcoin, provides a secure platform for two parties to do business with one another (Chiu and Koeppl 2017 and Berentsen and Schar 2018).

Bitcoin miners contribute computing resources to verify bitcoin transactions and hence maintain blockchain. They are compensated for sharing their computing resources with new bitcoins. The total numbers of bitcoins to be mined has been arbitrarily set at 21 million. When this volume is reached—estimates suggest in 2140—miners will be compensated by transaction fees rather than new bitcoins (Nian and Chuen 2016).
Bitcoin price dynamics from the end of 2017 to early 2018

When discussing the price of a currency or an asset like bitcoin, it is useful to separate transactional demand, which arises from using bitcoins in transactions such as purchases of goods and services, from speculative demand, which arises when people are buying bitcoins in the hope that their value will increase. Speculative demand is basically a bet on the price of the underlying asset or currency increasing, because the investor does not need the asset itself. For most currencies and assets, investors have ways to bet on the increase or decline in their value using a variety of financial instruments based on the asset or a currency, so-called financial derivatives.

Before December 2017, there was no market for bitcoin derivatives. This meant that it was extremely difficult, if not impossible, to bet on the decline in bitcoin price. Such bets usually take the form of short selling, that is selling an asset before buying it, forward or future contracts, swaps, or a combination. Betting on the increase in bitcoin price was easy—one just had to buy it. Speculative demand for bitcoin came only from optimists, investors who were willing to bet money that the price was going to go up. And until December 17, those investors were right: As with a self-fulfilling prophecy, optimists’ demand pushed the price of bitcoin up, energizing more people to join in and keep pushing up the price. The pessimists, however, had no mechanism available to put money behind their belief that the bitcoin price would collapse. So they were left to wait for their “I told you so” moment.

This one-sided speculative demand came to an end when the futures for bitcoin started trading on the CME on December 17. Although the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) had opened a futures market a week earlier on December 10, trading was thin until the CME joined the market. Indeed, the average daily trading volume the month after the CME issued futures was approximately six times larger than when only the CBOE offered these derivatives.

With the introduction of bitcoin futures, pessimists could bet on a bitcoin price decline, buying and selling contracts with a lower delivery price in the future than the spot price. For example, they could sell a promise to deliver a bitcoin in a month’s time at a lower price than the current spot price and hope to buy a bitcoin during the month at an even lower price to make a profit. With offers of future bitcoin deliveries at a lower price coming through, the order flow necessarily put downward pressure on the spot price as well. For all investors who were in the market to buy bitcoins for either transactional or speculative reasons and were willing to wait a month, this was a good deal. The new investment opportunity led to a fall in demand in the spot bitcoin market and therefore a drop in price. With falling prices, pessimists started to make money on their bets, fueling further short selling and further downward pressure on prices.

Figure 2 shows the three largest bitcoin price declines in 2017. We scale the three series so that the peak values are equal to 100 on the peak event days. Hence, each point on the figure can be interpreted as a percent of the peak value. The horizontal axis represents the number of days before and after the peak dates. The price decline following the issuance of bitcoin futures on the CME (red line) is clearly larger than in the previous two reversals. Additionally, the two earlier decreases in prices returned to pre-crash levels in about a month. As of late April, the bitcoin price had not returned to its pre-futures peak.

Figure 2
Comparison of three largest bitcoin price declines in 2017

2017 bitcoin price declines

Source: Bloomberg, authors’ calculations.

This is not the first time that markets observed a turning point following the introduction of a new instrument, as Fostel and Geanakoplos (2012) show for the more complex mortgage-backed securities market. The mechanism they describe hinges on the same driving force of optimistic and pessimistic traders.

Why, then, did the price of bitcoin fall somewhat gradually rather than collapse overnight? The answer to this is difficult. It could be that pessimistic investors lack the attention, willingness, or ability to enter the market on the first day or week of trading. Consistent with this assertion, the total volume of transactions in the CME futures market started very low, with an average trading volume of contracts promising to deliver approximately 12,000 bitcoins during the first week of trading, relative to the estimated spot market turnover of 200,000 bitcoins.
Is there a fundamental price of bitcoin?

So where is the price of bitcoin going? This is a very difficult question, and we do not pretend to be able to forecast bitcoin prices, nor will we offer any guesses. Instead, we outline a few factors that may affect the fundamental price of bitcoin, which is where we would expect the price to go in the long run, once speculative demand by optimists and pessimists balances out.

The supply of bitcoins is determined by the volume of bitcoin currently in circulation and the additional volume to be mined. The decision to mine a bitcoin depends on the cost and benefit from mining. Hayes (2015) estimated a bitcoin mining cost in 2015 of around $250, which was close to the bitcoin price at the time. More generally, however, the mining cost of bitcoin should not affect its value any more than the cost of printing regular currency affects its value—basically not at all.

Given that there is no actual asset that backs the value of bitcoin and it doesn’t provide a natural hedge as insurance against sharp moves in any other asset’s value, what will eventually determine the “fundamental” price of bitcoin is transactional demand relative to supply. We know that bitcoin is used as a means of exchange in a number of markets. The amount of bitcoins needed for these markets to function constitutes transactional demand. The supply growth of bitcoin is becoming more limited as the mining price increases. If transactional demand grows faster than supply, we would expect the price to grow.

Transactional demand in turn depends on a number of factors. One is the availability of substitutes. If a different cryptocurrency becomes more widely used as a means of exchange in the markets currently dominated by bitcoin, demand for bitcoin may drop precipitously because these tend to be winner-takes-all markets. Second, if traditional financial institutions become more willing to accept bitcoin as collateral, a means of payment, or a direct investment, demand may increase substantially. Finally, official recognition and regulatory acceptance of bitcoin as a means of payments would increase its circulation, while regulatory constraints or introduction of transaction fees may reduce it.

Quote
Conclusions

We suggest that the rapid rise of the price of bitcoin and its decline following issuance of futures on the CME is consistent with pricing dynamics suggested elsewhere in financial theory and with previously observed trading behavior. Namely, optimists bid up the price before financial instruments are available to short the market. Once derivatives markets become sufficiently deep, short-selling pressure from pessimists leads to a sharp decline in value. While we understand some of the factors that play a role in determining the long-run price of bitcoin, our understanding of the transactional benefits of bitcoin is too imprecise to quantify this long-run price. But as speculative dynamics disappear from the bitcoin market, the transactional benefits are likely to be the factor that will drive valuation.

One wonders how much it cost tax payer's for this insightful conclusion. No wonder we are broke. Dont get me wrong..there is some decent analysis in here..for a 5th grader. I guess this is how we have to spoon feed our politicians nowadays who are unable to think critically for themselves. smh.

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May 07, 2018, 09:54:26 PM

No wonder we are broke.

It obviously has nothing to do with entities like (((the federal reserve))) and (((Goldman Sachs))):

https://dailystormer.name/goldman-sachs-is-curing-patients-a-sustainable-business-model/
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May 07, 2018, 09:57:02 PM

That’s a retarded analysis.  The price spiked because everyone was yelling THIS IS WALL STREET MOON NOW and then fell in a classic buy the rumour sell the news. 
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May 07, 2018, 10:03:58 PM

No wonder hardware wallets sales are booming downloading this amount of data is not an option in the years ahead.
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May 07, 2018, 10:04:46 PM

Well, not seeing us testing $10k by mid-week at this rate.

It's OK, we're still going to reach $12280 *on 11th June. Grin
sorry to break it to you but I think you'll find it will be the 12th june

ain't got no problem with those dates  Wink

13th of june is definitely more probable Smiley
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May 07, 2018, 10:09:11 PM

Guess the SEC/CFTC working group is over. Sad
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May 07, 2018, 10:40:46 PM

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