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Question: Highest price we'll see in 2022:
50,000 - 0 (0%)
60,000 - 0 (0%)
70,000 - 0 (0%)
80,000 - 0 (0%)
90,000 - 0 (0%)
100,000 - 0 (0%)
125,000 - 0 (0%)
150,000 - 0 (0%)
175,000 - 0 (0%)
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>300,000 - 0 (0%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25528065 times)
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dragonvslinux
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March 01, 2020, 09:44:11 PM

There is very little left for Bitcoin Halving, and the world with a developing Fundamental like Coronavirus, gold loses 7%, great opportunity to buy and Hodl now more than ever.

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#Bitcoin  halving 2 months to go .. 2 more blue dots, then REDCohete

For new followers:
- Original S2F model article (22/3/2019):
https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25
- S2F model and EMH article (17/1/2020):
https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/efficient-market-hypothesis-and-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model-db17f40e6107


Source: https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1234105954930741250
So you really think bitcoin will reach $100k this year or the next one?  Shocked You're serious?  Cheesy

A little under $100K specifically. But why not? It's on track still.
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Last of the V8s
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March 01, 2020, 10:21:23 PM

There now follows an important message from the Swedish handball team https://imgur.com/gallery/8ZryRqR
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March 01, 2020, 10:24:03 PM

Its happening Gents.  Smiley Prepare for more money printing than ever before. Coronavirus=Bullish

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/while-everyone-waits-powell-heres-what-wall-street-thinks-will-happen-next

"Finally, courtesy of Macrohive's George Concalves, here is a twitter thread describing where the Fed finds itself and what its options are:

Many investors are expecting Fed (coordinated or not) to do something soon (perhaps before futures open). There has been a lot of debate that CB easing can't resolve health issues, but they can help sentiment. Here's what may happen next.

Backdrop1: Long gone is the façade the Fed will ignore sliding financial conditions (regardless of driver). Its not much, but the Fed has some flexibility on rate policy side but more importantly can come up w/some creative solutions in its use of the powers granted under 13 (3)

Backdrop2: One of the reasons why the Fed needs to be preemptive is because some of its crisis fighting abilities have been damped post GFC due to Federal Reserve Act section 13(3) revisions per DFA. That said, from what I understand they could still launch ABC facilities.

Backdrop3: In the early days of GFC the Fed resorted to tweaks versus all out easing measures or launching new facilities. In August 2007 it cut the discount rate and not the FF rate and in Jan-2008 did a 75 bp intra-meeting ease (followed by another 50bp at the meeting).

Old School Fed: I found this Min-Fed posting (see tinyurl.com/rgyeklr) as a good historical review of potential Fed crisis fighting usage of section 13(3), also see link at the end “Lender of more than last resort” for how the discount window evolved, more later…

Old Fed playbook1: In the '02 Bernanke report on deflation (see tinyurl.com/qmyto8g) he provides a laundry list of what they can do to stimulate the economy/markets. We have pretty much done all of them except for buying foreign bonds. Meanwhile Fed can buy munis too.

Old Fed playbook2: Since September 2019 the Fed has been providing liquidity with TOMO repo operations and TRM bill purchases (ie notQE). At a minimum the Fed will be inclined to keep these programs for a while longer (and abort tapering repo) while introducing new tools.

New Fed playbook1: In my view there is a risk of an intra-mtg ease (as early as today vs allowing mkts to freefall). First off this is a public health concern, but COVID disruptions run the risk of hitting biz CF/working capital. The Fed can encourage discount window use.

New Fed playbook2: Given JPM & Quarles want to break the DW stigma (see tinyurl.com/qqpbkzx) Fed could announce it reduces the DW rate to 25bp or even 0 over FF (vs 50) for large banks, maybe further for smaller banks if funds are used to help industries hit by COVID

New Fed playbook3: 17 days is a long time to wait for levered investors, so expect FF rate to come down 50bps too (would make DW rate cut be 75-100bp). The Fed could gauge how these measure work as well as monitor COVID into 3/18 where it could always do more if needed.

DEFCON1: Its too early to forecast COVID's eco-impact and if there is multiple waves. But Fed is on track to move to DEFCON1 in table (see tinyurl.com/sq65skd) if so they will end up with new ABCs, ZIRP (with tiering) eventual YCC, & credit easing (MBS, CP, & munis)."
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March 01, 2020, 10:31:19 PM


booom
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March 01, 2020, 11:31:11 PM
Merited by JimboToronto (1), Biodom (1)

I still think BTC could be around 10-12K before the halving... but those dreams about $100K any time soon (ie in 1-2 years) still look to me to me just like that: Dreams.

Hope they do realise some day though.

$100k might be not possible in 1-2 years, but touching $50,000 at least once by the end of 2021 still looks quite possible to me.

Pish. $50K is the post FOMO blowoff top crash nadir price.
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March 01, 2020, 11:47:12 PM

I didn't expect this, not before Super Tuesday at least.

Buttigieg is ending his presidential bid

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/01/politics/buttigieg-campaign/index.html

I still think BTC could be around 10-12K before the halving... but those dreams about $100K any time soon (ie in 1-2 years) still look to me to me just like that: Dreams.

Hope they do realise some day though.

$100k might be not possible in 1-2 years, but touching $50,000 at least once by the end of 2021 still looks quite possible to me.

Pish. $50K is the post FOMO blowoff top crash nadir price.

TBH, I think we'll probably top around $48000-$49000. Tongue
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March 02, 2020, 12:13:57 AM
Merited by OutOfMemory (1)

I am bored, more than scared, by the news on CoronaVirus.
I am in the middle of a region where this is going hyperbolic.
I have contingency plans for the most relevant persons in case things start rolling South.

I needed something a little bit light hearted.

So this is to let you knwo I wrote a little guide on how to setup a "notification machine" for the forum:
#meritislife: how to be notified on a smartband of merits and mentions

Basically a guide on how to forward Giammangiato's bot notification to a smartband, so to be immediately notified of merits and mentions.

Shall I activate also for #Coronavirus twitter handle? Constant Notification nightmare?
 
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The end approaches..What are you doing to prepare?


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March 02, 2020, 12:18:55 AM

How many here are into stocks anyway? I never had the means pre-bitcoin but also no interest, especially now.

max satoshi keiser?  Grin Cool Kiss

===>

" battle for hash power "
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJkWLwJ2Hro
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March 02, 2020, 12:33:48 AM

I still think BTC could be around 10-12K before the halving... but those dreams about $100K any time soon (ie in 1-2 years) still look to me to me just like that: Dreams.

Hope they do realise some day though.

So what is your prediction? 10-12K at the time of halving what about 2021-2022? Sideways?  Grin

No, it could reasonably be $50K. Maybe more, maybe less. I just say that $100K is probably too much to consider as a reasonable probability. Again, not impossible, depending if Bitcoin is able to regain something similar to 2017 FOMO, but even if that were the case I would not take $100K for granted.

In fact I would prefer a more organic and sustainable $50K than a "fomo" peak to $100K.
I would prefer a real growth to $20k lol  Cheesy
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March 02, 2020, 01:01:43 AM

Too far behind to even try to catch up, but I have a little something for you that might explain the rapid spread in Iran. Apparently it's a thing in Iran to lick sacred places and the government aren't shutting them down.
Video: https://twitter.com/i/status/1233783635007954949
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March 02, 2020, 01:14:43 AM

I can think of a couple sacred places I'd like to lick.
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March 02, 2020, 01:20:17 AM

I still think BTC could be around 10-12K before the halving... but those dreams about $100K any time soon (ie in 1-2 years) still look to me to me just like that: Dreams.

Hope they do realise some day though.

So what is your prediction? 10-12K at the time of halving what about 2021-2022? Sideways?  Grin

No, it could reasonably be $50K. Maybe more, maybe less. I just say that $100K is probably too much to consider as a reasonable probability. Again, not impossible, depending if Bitcoin is able to regain something similar to 2017 FOMO, but even if that were the case I would not take $100K for granted.

In fact I would prefer a more organic and sustainable $50K than a "fomo" peak to $100K.
I would prefer a real growth to $20k lol  Cheesy
I hope BTC will growth again $10k because I buy at BTC at $10200.
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March 02, 2020, 01:31:51 AM

I can think of a couple sacred places I'd like to lick.

I went to an alleyway on the outskirts of Rome and paid off a member of the Swiss Guard for a ten minute play with this.



I could taste some thrush, a hint of swarfega and a whole lot of crystal meth so I'm pretty goddamn confident it was pulled straight off the pope in his sleep.
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March 02, 2020, 02:14:29 AM
Last edit: March 02, 2020, 07:16:58 AM by Biodom
Merited by JimboToronto (1), JayJuanGee (1)

I still think BTC could be around 10-12K before the halving... but those dreams about $100K any time soon (ie in 1-2 years) still look to me to me just like that: Dreams.

Hope they do realise some day though.

$100k might be not possible in 1-2 years, but touching $50,000 at least once by the end of 2021 still looks quite possible to me.

Pish. $50K is the post FOMO blowoff top crash nadir price.

Yes, our last low was approx 2.69x prior high (3122 vs 1160).
Last high was 19,780, hence 2.69x of it is 53K, give or take.
If our prior trend would hold, we would decline about 81% from the putative ATH high to 53K making 278K an assumed predicted high (on a spike), which also makes sense in comparison with the 100K median-state S2F prediction.
The last time median price predicted by S2F was approx 6.7K, we went 2.95x of this at the peak...therefore, 2.95x 100k median is 295K, which almost matches the 278k number derived by other means (295 vs 278).

TL;DR IMHO, any price between 200K-300K is possible at the next peak and 50K is too low.
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March 02, 2020, 02:33:57 AM

100k=minimum. 400k=aspiration.
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March 02, 2020, 02:39:45 AM

Definitely an inverse relation of price action to WO posts.

Not too hard to keep up the last few days.

Pull it together boys, this too shall pass, do not become weak hands.

You know who I'm looking at. Wink


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March 02, 2020, 02:48:01 AM

100k=minimum. 400k=aspiration.

Aspiration is Bitcoin becoming the one and only world currency. This will create a truly free market that will push humanity into the future without corrupt governments being able to push the people down into the ground with overblown taxes and fake inflations. It is about time for people to take the power back from dictators and incompetent rulers of their countries.

And Blockchain will make everything nice and transparent. Proof>Trust.
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March 02, 2020, 03:36:14 AM
Merited by fillippone (2)

Interesting.

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Despite $BTC's recent price drop, its hashrate has hit ATH and continues to climb.

#Bitcoin's impending halving is getting closer each day, how do you expect price to react?

Read about Bitcoin & its diversification properties in portfolio management. Flecha hacia abajo
https://research.binance.com/analysis/bitcoin-diversification-benefits



Source: https://twitter.com/BinanceResearch/status/1234311320620584960
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March 02, 2020, 03:49:07 AM

100k=minimum. 400k=aspiration.

Aspiration is Bitcoin becoming the one and only world currency. This will create a truly free market that will push humanity into the future without corrupt governments being able to push the people down into the ground with overblown taxes and fake inflations. It is about time for people to take the power back from dictators and incompetent rulers of their countries.

And Blockchain will make everything nice and transparent. Proof>Trust.

Yes agree that we will eventually become the Global Reserve Currency. Im referring to the top of the next bubble as 100k-400k. We will have more Bull and Bear markets before we become the reserve currency.
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March 02, 2020, 04:52:26 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), fillippone (2), JayJuanGee (1)

Coronavirus update:

- There are currently 89,068 confirmed cases worldwide, including 3,045 fatalities.

- First cases in Dominican Republic, Czech Republic and Ireland.

- First coronavirus case confirmed in New York City. Washington state reports 4 new cases including 1 new death, in King County. 2 new cases confirmed in California.

- Berlin reports first case.

- Italy reports 42% jump in cases overnight to nearly 1,700

- Indonesia reports first cases of Covid-19.

- New coronavirus cases jump sharply around the globe many infected countries reporting more cases.

- MotoGP of Qatar has been canceled due to coronavirus.

- Turkish Airlines cancels all Italy flights.

- France shuts down Louvre. 30 new cases in France, raising total to 130.

- American Airlines suspending all flights to and from Milan untill 25 April.

- Juventus quarantines U23 squad.

- Armenia closing schools for a week.

- British citizens and some diplomatic staff have been evacuated from the UK's embassy in Tehran.

- Morocco will postpone sports and cultural events.

- Panic buying in supermarkets.




Dramatic drop in levels of air pollution after closing down China's factories.
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