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Question: Price prediction for the May 21 weekly close:
<$20,000 - 7 (8%)
$20,000 - $22,000 - 0 (0%)
$22,000 - $24,000 - 2 (2.3%)
$24,000 - $26,000 - 3 (3.4%)
$26,000 - $28,000 - 7 (8%)
$28,000 - $30,000 - 12 (13.8%)
$30,000 - $32,000 - 20 (23%)
$32,000 - $34,000 - 8 (9.2%)
$34,000 - $36,000 - 6 (6.9%)
$36,000 - $38,000 - 3 (3.4%)
$38,000 - $40,000 - 2 (2.3%)
>$40,000 - 17 (19.5%)
Total Voters: 87

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25645488 times)
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BTCMILLIONAIRE
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March 04, 2020, 02:31:04 PM

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Things have been getting better because of the efforts of our ancestors. Then their kids, the boomers took over. And now boomers are all we have left at the top. That's why things are failing.
The generational thing was more apt for slow moving civilizations. This paradigm is due to end very soon if it hasn't already, simply because everything changes so damn quickly and communication as well as networking is completely different from what it used to be.
You no longer grow up and die with the people and in the environment that you'll spend your life with and in. So you have little chance to be fully oblivious if you want to do something more productive than being a sheep.

At the end of the day we'll end up with sets of people that exclusively consume and "just live their lives", classes of people that live to work and solve problems, as well as people who do a bit of both.

And that's good enough. People who "just live their lives" provide data and cheap labour, while also increasing the total acquirable wealth of the doers. No need for any more than that precisely because of exponential progress.
Who cares if they need more space and more resources when we become much more efficient at creation and allocation.


Quote
Big systems can take a long time to fail. But when they do it's a process that can't be stopped. And then people look back and wonder, what went wrong? Why didn't anyone see it coming? Why did nobody do anything? Well it's because the parents of the boomers are dead that nobody did anything. Nobody could.
We have enough countries to not have to care about such issue. Even if Sanders became president and had the ability to pass anything through congress, neither of which will happen, the productive class will simply leave and set up shop elsewhere.
The consumer class will eventually follow, because it can't get anything done by itself and won't be able to resist the desire of living where the magic happens. Needless to say, some of the people who foolishly voted to break things, without even understanding what they are doing, would suffer greatly from this in the short-term.
But in the long-term all you have to do is let this nonsense play out a few more times and watch even the dumbest of idiots on Tiktok spread anti-communism awareness memes.

Yeah, it looks bad if you're zoomed in on the now. But in reality it's just a learning process.
Think of humans more as a collective organism, you know you could do better but you're too lazy, arrogant, naive and stupid to actually do it until you fall flat on your ass a few times.

For the individual all that matters is being ahead of the game and not staying in any country that is about to go down the shitter. Wealthy people have been doing this forever, and more and more normal folks learn this over time.

Quote
Solve for communism.

In my country we pay at least 80% in taxes. In england the police are telling people to check their thinking for posts on facebook and twitter. We are almost there. How do you stop this?
We're not almost there, some countries look like they're getting there but there's a lot of lash back and it's not the entire world.
Provided you care enough to sacrifice your lifetime there are two ways. Change from within, change from without.
If you have a lot of leverage, e.g. because you're an Elon Musk, you can go into politics and media and start changing things because everybody respects you and knows that you know what the fuck you're talking about and doing.

If you're not, go to whichever country is most conducive to amassing wealth and solving significant problems. Go do it.
When that country is about to fail (e.g. if you're in the US and Sanders gets elected) you leave for the next best thing and keep going there.

Once you attain above leverage you may consider influencing culture and politics.

Quote
Academia is where the next generation of politicians and leaders of whatever stripes are made. This is not a minor thing, but in fact one of the biggest problems we have in the west today.
It is indeed not a minor thing. But I'm not very concerned because people can migrate.
Take that away and you've got a real problem. As long as countries can attract the top of the crop by changing policy there will always be a gradient of preferable vs undesirable policies, and that ultimately and over time is what will take us to proper capitalism.


I'd guess that the real issue is creating and maintaining a culture in which:
1.) Everybody understands that anybody can come to wealth with minimal tweaks to their lifestyle
2.) Everybody who doesn't choose to become wealthy understands its their choice and hence takes full responsibility and appreciation for their 'simpler' lifestyles
3.) People understand that the wealthy almost always merely solved problems that directly or indirectly impacted everyone and that they'll be happy to take your money to solve any resulting or new problems
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March 04, 2020, 02:40:31 PM

It's the pareto principle, as the number of people increase the number of people with positive value increases linearly, and the number of people with negative value increases exponentially.
The pareto principle is about distribution. In the case of contribution, human value specifically in this case, that value can be negative.
It's a distribution of inputs vs outputs, it doesn't say anything about how the number of people with positive/negative contributions develops over time.

It merely says when you have a collection of humans that you can divide into "qualities", e.g. positive and negative, then 20% of those in the positive category will create 80% of the positive things, and 20% of those in the negative category will create 80% of the negative things.

It says nothing about how many people are in each category or how that will change.


If you want to go with "humans" as input, and "value" (positive, negative, neutral) as output, then all you can get from pareto is:
20% of the humans ("input") will produce 80% of the output. This means that 80% could be neutral and 0% negative.

It also doesn't say anything about the ability of the positive to outweigh/solve the negative. Basically there is nothing in it that would let you conclude that things will get worse by any measure.
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March 04, 2020, 02:47:49 PM


TLDR: Its just the Flu x 4 bro, and its hella bullish bc money printers are in hysteria right now.

Nah,
just explain quickly why.

Talking about positive cases.
50% are asyntomatic or low symptoms, cure at home, quarantine.
50% need hospitalisation.
25% (50% of previous 50%) need intensive care.
more or less 3% of total infected eventually die (5% of previous intensive care patient).

Now, think what happens if the positive cases skyrocket to a certain number, let's say HALF of the number of people normally infected by a regular flu.

What is the supply of intensive care beds?
What happens when we will be at full capacity?

Mortality rate will rise. Also because people need intensive care also for other reasons than Coronavirus.

Also, hospital procedures are slowed donw by quarantine/extra security needed whil dealing for CoVid19 profilax.

This is the dangerous aspect of COVID19, not the mortality rate per se.

SOURCE:
It is already happening, here in Italy.


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March 04, 2020, 02:51:51 PM

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3633/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-presidential-nomination

Bernie is officially done now. Its gonna be Biden or Trump in November. Both are much more Bullish for King Bitcoin than Bernie would ever be.

We just got a billion more potential hodlers in India all of whom can legally buy Bitcoin now.

Money printers are printing up a historical shit ton of money as we speak for the Flux4Bro AKA COVBULL-19.

The halvening is almost two months away.

JJG gave up text walls and went on an adventure.

Roach may be talking to a girl finally.

We have entered some kind of Transdimensional Hyperspace Bullish nexus point the likes of which I cant remember except maybe when we kicked Jihan Wu's ass and got Segwit handled.
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March 04, 2020, 02:55:16 PM
Last edit: March 04, 2020, 03:14:25 PM by Lambie Slayer


TLDR: Its just the Flu x 4 bro, and its hella bullish bc money printers are in hysteria right now.

Nah,
just explain quickly why.

Talking about positive cases.
50% are asyntomatic or low symptoms, cure at home, quarantine.
50% need hospitalisation.
25% (50% of previous 50%) need intensive care.
more or less 3% of total infected eventually die (5% of previous intensive care patient).

Now, think what happens if the positive cases skyrocket to a certain number, let's say HALF of the number of people normally infected by a regular flu.

What is the supply of intensive care beds?
What happens when we will be at full capacity?

Mortality rate will rise. Also because people need intensive care also for other reasons than Coronavirus.

Also, hospital procedures are slowed donw by quarantine/extra security needed whil dealing for CoVid19 profilax.

This is the dangerous aspect of COVID19, not the mortality rate per se.

SOURCE:
It is already happening, here in Italy.




My theory is based on the assumption that you have way more undiagnosed cases, hence the lower true mortality rate.
Thats why Diamond Princess is the perfect sample.

We know every single person except 14 got tested.

No other sample is like this for any town, village or city.


Your gov, like most others, either cant or wont test everyone who needs it so the mortality rate seems much higher than it is bc you dont know about all the undiagnosed cases.

I suppose I could clarify that the .4 percent mortality Slayer estimate is assuming the patients get decent healthcare, this would be skewed higher in cases where not enough ICU beds are available. Thats why I mentioned the more communist or socialist a government is, the higher the mortality rates will likely be bc govs suck at everything, including running a healthcare system.

Look at the example inWashington State where six died in a nursing home. Yes that sucks for them, but they were in a nursing home and probably the weakest ones there, so they likely would have died sometime in the next 6 months to a year. This virus will likely take a bunch of people who were about to die in 2020 sometime anyway, and just take them out all at once.
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March 04, 2020, 02:58:02 PM
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Money printers are printing up a historical shit ton of money as we speak for the Flux4Bro AKA COVBULL-19.

What's going to be funny as shit is seeing the media's reaction when this Coronavirus situation blows over.

They'll all be like, "Ok world, the virus is licked now, you all can go out and shop again! Have fun and spend freely!"

And it'll be fkn crickets.

Everyone was completely broke and deep in debt before the virus came, and so they sure as shit still will be after the virus runs it's course.

Nothing will have changed. There won't be any pent up demand. People will still stay home.

The global deflationary environment will still continue.

The Fed rates will eventually slide into the negative.

How long until all confidence in the USD is completely shattered? Tick tock, tick tock.
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March 04, 2020, 02:58:30 PM

Bridging the Bitcoin Gap: Why the American Crypto Landscape Is Ripe for Disruption

Moving toward crypto-positivity

Quote
By Catherine Coley, CEO + Founder, Binance.US
Not all is lost for mass digital adoption, but this is the conversation the crypto community continues to have with itself over and over and over again. How do we get more people buying, selling and hodling crypto?

In my view, we need clearer ways for more people to get involved and clearer regulation, more outspoken advocates to share their expertise and Americans to feel like they have a homebase for crypto trading.

What's encouraging to hear is that more Americans are getting involved in the digital asset community. In the last year, the number of Americans who own a cryptocurrency has almost doubled from 7.95% in 2018 to 14.4% in 2019 — an increase of 81% in one year.

As we’ve seen in recent weeks, when physical cash can provide a germy problem, crypto can act as a geopolitical safe haven for consumers to hold on to their capital in a secure way. We started Binance.US out of a need for a U.S.-native exchange that understands the nuances of the American crypto landscape, and we’ve already seen impressive movements from our work. We believe the benefits of becoming a crypto-positive country are unprecedented. There will be clearer transactions for businesses and a greater opportunity for financial wealth and growth for general consumers.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/bridging-the-bitcoin-gap%3A-why-the-american-crypto-landscape-is-ripe-for-disruption-2020-03
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March 04, 2020, 03:02:36 PM

It's not a pendulum, it's a cycle. It can't restart before it has either completed or a specific type of event happens that resets it. The "pendulum" does not simply stop at the halfway point and then go in the other direction.
It kind of does. It swings one way until it can't anymore, gradually slows down to zero, reverses its direction and repeats the same action but mirrored, then it resets and begins a new cycle.

It's the same thing, in some sense. If you project circular motion onto any straight line coplanar with the circle, you get harmonic (pendulum) motion.
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March 04, 2020, 03:07:32 PM

Money printers are printing up a historical shit ton of money as we speak for the Flux4Bro AKA COVBULL-19.

What's going to be funny as shit is seeing the media's reaction when this Coronavirus situation blows over.

They'll all be like, "Ok world, the virus is licked now, you all can go out and shop again! Have fun and spend freely!"

And it'll be fkn crickets.

Everyone was completely broke and deep in debt before the virus came, and so they sure as shit still will be after the virus runs it's course.

Nothing will have changed. There won't be any pent up demand. People will still stay home.

The global deflationary environment will still continue.

The Fed rates will eventually slide into the negative.

How long until all confidence in the USD is completely shattered? Tick tock, tick tock.

Exactly. Everyone is stocking up on bleach and buttwipes, but I just am going to get plenty of popcorn and watch the show.  Cheesy
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March 04, 2020, 03:09:16 PM

I cant find any more reliable sample than the Diamond Princess.

Indeed it is a good sample.

Now let's multiple Diamond Princess sample size by a million.

Out of 3.6 billion adults, 700 million will get infected, 6 million will die.

I think humanity can handle it.

According to wikipedia, "Global human population growth amounts to around 83 million annually, or 1.1% per year."
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March 04, 2020, 03:15:39 PM

SOURCE:
It is already happening, here in Italy.

Italy closing all schools and universities across the country and is set to close cinemas and theatres and ban public events across the whole country.

Decision will be decided in the next few hours.
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March 04, 2020, 03:16:18 PM

$9500 by 8th of March confirmed.
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March 04, 2020, 03:19:48 PM

It seems like Mike Bloomberg's drama finished already; he's no longer running for candidacy.
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March 04, 2020, 03:22:54 PM

I cant find any more reliable sample than the Diamond Princess.

Indeed it is a good sample.

Now let's multiple Diamond Princess sample size by a million.

Out of 3.6 billion adults, 700 million will get infected, 6 million will die.

I think humanity can handle it.

According to wikipedia, "Global human population growth amounts to around 83 million annually, or 1.1% per year."

Yes, indeed. Also when you adjust for the age skew of a cruise trip passenger population its probably about 3 million dead, and Id guess a very large chunk of those 3 million were gonna die in 2020 anyway as they represent the weakest members of our population in terms of health. You may see a large spike in deaths for a few months but Id guess the overall deaths for 2020 wouldnt be all that much higher than normal.

Kind of like letting a bunch of prisoners out of jail in the spring when most were already scheduled to get out that year anyway. You come back a year later and the prison population is pretty normal as it has refilled with criminals again.

These viruses go after the weak and compete for the same low hanging fruit.

For every elderly that the coronavirus kills, that may be one less death in 2020 from the flu as corona beats the flu to the punch. You will probably see a drop in deaths for 2020 across the board for heart disease, diabetes, flu, etc as coronavirus plays the early bird and gets the worms.
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March 04, 2020, 03:23:35 PM
Merited by Paashaas (1)

SOURCE:
It is already happening, here in Italy.

Italy closing all schools and universities across the country and is set to close cinemas and theatres and ban public events across the whole country.

Decision will be decided in the next few hours.


Guys I am not kidding, the city where I live (does opsec means anything at this stage?) is looking like a big "28 Days Later" set.
No school
Work from home
Empty Restaurats
Empty Bars (unbelievable for an italian not to be able to drink a coffe standing at the bar counter)
No cinema
No gyms
Serie A matches being played with closed doors.
Do you watch Basketball? Armani Milano played vs Barcelona in an empty stadium, surreal.
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March 04, 2020, 03:25:30 PM

$9500 by 8th of March confirmed.

Get your Vegeta memes ready!  Cool
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1/21000000 , the only math you need to know


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March 04, 2020, 03:28:32 PM
Merited by kurious (1)

no fucking way creepy uncle Joe beats Trump

this whole election thing just became decidedly less entertaining

of course, Joe has a pretty high probability of blowing his own foot off in time for a Sanders nomination

Sanders v Trump is the TV show we all deserve
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March 04, 2020, 03:32:50 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (3)

Roach may be talking to a girl finally.
Roach finally met gembitz IRL. Since then they've been spending days and nights in bed together. gembitz visited WO several times but Roach got mad his bf distracted from sucking his D and so they both disappeared from WO for good.  Cool
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March 04, 2020, 03:37:17 PM

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Sideways continues... currently $8752USD/$11670CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Same old same old.

America get ready for another round of your favorite presidential election game: Giant Douche vs. Turd Sandwich.

I generally try not to step in the domestic politics of other countries but this was too hard to resist.



Same old same old.

 Grin
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March 04, 2020, 03:37:38 PM

no fucking way creepy uncle Joe beats Trump

this whole election thing just became decidedly less entertaining

of course, Joe has a pretty high probability of blowing his own foot off in time for a Sanders nomination

Sanders v Trump is the TV show we all deserve

What people have to understand is that it's the same shit either way.

One party wants to slow down the printing press, but wants to tax the middle class more to compensate.

The other party wants no more taxes on the middle class, but wants to keep the printing press going to compensate.

Either way, we're all fucked. The purchasing power of the dollar continues to fall, houses/things get more expensive, no one gets raises, everyone gets more in debt, etc.
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