Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Let's hope that the bottom is in with our current local low of $3,850.... but probably we are less than 50/50 odds with that?

sir, don't get me wrong . But i am new in yours conversation. If the price goes to the bottom, the miners will be in loss and it can be a threat to the bitcoin ecosystem. I may be wrong but let's see what happen next.

Sure, you are correct, Review Master, but miners can work at a loss for extended periods and also they will self-adjust their behavior and difficulty will adjust too... so miner costs and behavior will also adjust to the price.. to some degree.. of course there is debate about whether miners follow BTC price or BTC price follows miner costs.. yet I would not conclude that BTC price has to be over a certain amount, merely because the miners costs are at a certain level.. and also in the short term a lot of things can happen that the miners might just suck up.. to the extent that they were not causing such dynamics.. Accordingly, some more efficient miners might get deluded pleasure to attempt to force other miners out by forcing the BTC price down and behaviors like that.

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[JSRAW]

JJG, My vision is 20/20 ... Just saying 

[Paashaas]

These dumps happend before and will happen many times after all the way up to a $1m per coin.

[Tash]

Italy has a 3.5% mortality rate with one of the best health systems in the world.  It’s not the fucking flu.

Data so far shows the death to recovery rate is worse in countries who spent more on health.
By the looks of things people also lack Vitamins C, D (sun)
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5220206.msg54019072#msg54019072

[HairyMaclairy]

Just look at that beautiful volume.

This could be the volume spike we need to seal the bottom of the bear market.

[JayJuanGee]

[ edited out]

Meh, you don't know at this time with the hysteria going around.... a bit lower is not excluded at the moment, don't like it, but will go through it, my mind around BTC is made in the past, my RL investments and house and sh*t are been figured out so I have been putting myself in a situation where I can float with whats happening, maybe thats just the most important of it all, healthy DCA, healthy strategy, nonetheless this isn't taking away that I hate us being here right now, but many more in the world are struggling with far worse financial struggling atm and I feel sorry for everyone. 

Of course, each of us has to find his/her own balance, and I am NOT trying to be overly harsh on mindrust.

You know as well as I do that we had a lot of back and forth with mindrust, so it can be a bit frustrating to see him engage in a kind of flip flopping, yet in the end, the decisions are his.. furthermore, each of us has a right to express opinions on the topic, since we are posting in a public thread, so surely have to appreciate that mindrust is willing to share some of his deliberations in this thread, even though sometimes he is going to end up getting attacked on certain aspects.. that is part of the deal when you post matters publicly... and hopefully  some of us are able to learn from these kinds of interactions.. even if it is merely a matter of just trying to better understand the situations of others, even if seeming to be flip-flopping.


Frequently, my responses are also just a kind of spontaneous rendition, so sometime I might consider if maybe I could word my response in a better way, or not be so repetitive or maybe ask a question rather than attempting to give an answer and assuming too much about some facts or logic that is not clear from the description up to that point.

[Saint-loup]

Italy has a 3.5% mortality rate with one of the best health systems in the world.  It’s not the fucking flu.

Data so far shows the death to recovery rate is worse in countries who spent more on health.
By the looks of things people also lack Vitamins C, D (sun)
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5220206.msg54019072#msg54019072

How do you know it's because of vitamin D and not because of their ethnicity?

[marcus_of_augustus]

Italy has a 3.5% mortality rate with one of the best health systems in the world.  It’s not the fucking flu.

Dude. 15113 infected, 1016 deaths, 1258 recovered. That's either 45% or 27% depending how you prefer to calculate it. Yeah, not the fucking flu.

I agree with HM that its not a common thing atm, I think it will be a common thing in the future and people will be waaaaaay more relaxed when a vaccin is out for easy buying

Viruses mutate. An effective vaccine is highly unlikely.

If the idea is there already that there is a vaccine is already enough, alright later on the virus will mutate, but now when it’s contained they will keep working for new vaccines and not like when SARS was contained to stop working on it...

It can't be contained. That's why this is the big one. Everyone is going to get it, and if the mutation rate is anything like just the flu bro, then we could end up with a yearly recurring global pandemic.

There's another reason why an effective vaccine is going to be unlikely in the short term. First HIV has been around for 40 years and there is still no vaccine, some of the sequences on the spike protein for this virus have HIV homology. Secondly is, the SARS virus vaccine trials on animals revealed a mechanism known as Antibody-dependent enhancement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement which means if you get vaccinated with these vaccines then you are actually making yourself more susceptible to the virus because it hijacks the antibodies you created for it to attack your cells more readily. Which is the same mechanism that can also be triggered by a second strain of the virus which is similar but different enough to trigger a second immune response, in some cases progresses to a massive immune over-reaction, i.e. cytokine storm. (It's evil don't hyperventilate yet but just don't get it the first time). Some commentators speculated that those video clips from Wuhan and S. Korea of people collapsing in the street were cytokine storm victims who had somehow got an ADE response from a second virus infection. All that 80% mild case talk is dangerous because those people might have just made themselves vulnerable to secondary lethal infection regardless of how young healthy fit they are. In fact in that case a vigorous immune system is the threat because that is what will get you the second time around, your own body's immune reaction.

We are early days in understanding this beast.

[JayJuanGee]

[[edited out]

Yeah exactly my thoughts. Roach #2. Roach material  

That's all we need is another Roach... hahahaha

There are a few roach-like peeps posting in this thread from time to time, and no need to really make a list...  

[Wekkel]

JJG back to wordy.
Markets in calm(er) water again.
All is fine 

[Saint-loup]

1k to 2.5k

I'd buy back from $3k.

Quoted. Easy to say when BTC is above 5k...

[bitcoinPsycho]

Not buying not selling... just HODLing...

If no one buys the price won't rise up.

right - hodl is such fkcud up

only real scale & use can fix bitcoin

- finally:

hodl: no use case

Why don't you fuck off hv?  You hate bitcoin anyway

[Majormax]

Problem is I couldn't. My problem was buying too many dips recently. I was casually throwing $5k's. That was a huge mistake and was the main panic trigger for me.

Combined with that, what we just witnessed never happened before in the history of crypto If I am not wrong.

You are right.  That move was a first for crypto, and it is worrysome. It could be an indicator (much as we don't like it, deny it) that the market/trend has changed in some fundamental way.

For me the real negative sign was the failure, in an exponential spike, of 13500 and 10500 (twice), BELOW the ATH.  That had not happened before. Exponential rises to ATH are temporary exhaustions, but below (in TA) signal long bear trends.

Of course, there is the argument that BTC is not like other markets, but with this move in lockstep with stocks etc, it is looking more like BTC has matured .

Now lets hear the bull case.

[mindrust]

1k to 2.5k

I'd buy back from $3k.

Quoted. Easy to say when BTC is above 5k...

You got me.

I never mentioned the amount though:d

[HairyMaclairy]

Problem is I couldn't. My problem was buying too many dips recently. I was casually throwing $5k's. That was a huge mistake and was the main panic trigger for me.

Combined with that, what we just witnessed never happened before in the history of crypto If I am not wrong.

You are right.  That move was a first for crypto, and it is worrysome. It could be an indicator (much as we don't like it, deny it) that the market/trend has changed in some fundamental way.

For me the real negative sign was the failure, in an exponential spike, of 13500 and 10500 (twice), BELOW the ATH.  That had not happened before. Exponential rises to ATH are temporary exhaustions, but below (in TA) signal long bear trends.

Of course, there is the argument that BTC is not like other markets, but with this move in lockstep with stocks etc, it is looking more like BTC has matured .

Now lets hear the bull case.

21 million.


Patience Padawan

[Majormax]

To keep things very simple, we had:

-December 2017: all time high 19.5k
-January 2019: low @ circa 3k
-June 2019: lower high @ 13.7k
-December 2019: higher low @ 6.4k
-February 2020: lower high @ 10.5k (very crucial price, the bulls will buy massively if we break above)
-March 2020: lower low 4k compared to December 2019, but higher low compared to January 2019

What is worrying in this thread is the constant higher lows (19.5k - 13.7k - 10.5k), this also means we should see at least another bounce (which would be a lower high again) at some stage, around 6.4k at least.

If I could invest big money (sadly my money is stuck at Epayments right now) I would buy a lot of Bitcoin to sell at 6.4k eventually (conservative approach).

What I also think is possible is to see a lower low compared to January 2019 which would mean 1k to 2.5k area (scary but possible). But if you are mentally strong it doesn't matter, we should see 6.4k again.

Good summary.  We will see 6.4k, maybe soon, but the key is what happens there. It has now become resistance. Even  7.5k , if rejected, is a very bad sign.

The bull case is a slow, slow consolidation, getting back above 8k by end of year.

The bear case is a quicker (1-2 month) move to ~7k, and another lower high.

Just TA stuff, for fun only.

[Wekkel]

Now lets hear the bull case.

Bitcoin is still Bitcoin. Nothing that makes it a valuable experiment has changed. Perhaps speculators got bit but that’s all part of the (speculation) game. If speculation would be Bitcoin’s purpose, the smash down would be bad. But Bitcoin’s game is totally something else (yes, it really is).

To me, the smash down may lengthen the path but does not hurt the experiment. Especially if the COV19 crisis leads to another round of again more crazy monetary experiments.

So nothing has changed, and the entry price just got lowered.

[mindrust]

Now lets hear the bull case.

Bitcoin is still Bitcoin. Nothing that makes it a valuable experiment has changed. Perhaps speculators got bit but that’s all part of the (speculation) game. If speculation would be Bitcoin’s purpose, the smash down would be bad. But Bitcoin’s game is totally something else (yes, it really is).

To me, the smash down may lengthen the path but does not hurt the experiment. Especially if the COV19 crisis leads to another round of again more crazy monetary experiments.

So nothing has changed, and the entry price just got lowered.

Solid arguments.

I never doubted Bitcoin.

Global recession and my latest panic buys fucked with my state of mind.

When everything gets resolved it may go back to 9k in no time.

[Ibian]

I don't know. I really wish well for all of you. (Except the bcash morons)

So here is where I respond.

You've given me a ration of shit over time. Because I do not conform to your particular religious sect of the Bitcoin canon. Yet who has lost faith in Bitcoin? Not me.

While I'm truly sorry for your loss, fuck you very much.

Nobody else thinks we are part of a religion.

[JayJuanGee]

Oh, by the way..... @ JSRAW:  would you like to apologize to me for your March 2019 statement about never going below $3,900 again?      NOT that I did not want you to be correct.  

Sorry Spiderman, please accept my apology

Btw It went to $3900? i see only 4k ish range.

Sure, since we use stamp in these here parts, so far the low had gone down to $3,850 on stamp.  Hopefully that is the bottom.  Maybe it was at or below $3,900 for less than 15 minutes in total... but still.. technically we have seen lower than $3,900 prices after March of 2019.... hopefully, that is it, but you know that we really cannot really know, and better if we could just return to $10k and forget about these piddly 4 digit numbers.

was out all night with my g.f and friends celebrating her birthday, so i missed the bloodpath and all the fuckery. But when i checked it in the morning.... shit ... portfolio was/ still down significantly in fiat but i didn't lose my shit over it, luckily.

Good that you have more will power than the rest of us, and surely can be helpful to have some RL distractions, too.

I had only one buy order waiting at $5k range for ages as back-up plan, in case of any doomsday scenario. not happy with this situation overall but can't complain either as i increased my stash. Now getting my shit together for next doomsday if it happens again.

Volatility of both up and down are inevitable, but if we could go up from here, then it will make the next down feel less traumatic.  We could put in a request to bitcoin, and find out later if our request gets filled.