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Question: Highest price we'll see in 2022:
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80,000 - 0 (0%)
90,000 - 0 (0%)
100,000 - 0 (0%)
125,000 - 0 (0%)
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175,000 - 0 (0%)
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225,000 - 0 (0%)
250,000 - 0 (0%)
275,000 - 0 (0%)
300,000 - 0 (0%)
>300,000 - 0 (0%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25528074 times)
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Raja_MBZ
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March 04, 2020, 03:16:18 PM

$9500 by 8th of March confirmed.
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Raja_MBZ
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March 04, 2020, 03:19:48 PM

It seems like Mike Bloomberg's drama finished already; he's no longer running for candidacy.
Lambie Slayer
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March 04, 2020, 03:22:54 PM

I cant find any more reliable sample than the Diamond Princess.

Indeed it is a good sample.

Now let's multiple Diamond Princess sample size by a million.

Out of 3.6 billion adults, 700 million will get infected, 6 million will die.

I think humanity can handle it.

According to wikipedia, "Global human population growth amounts to around 83 million annually, or 1.1% per year."

Yes, indeed. Also when you adjust for the age skew of a cruise trip passenger population its probably about 3 million dead, and Id guess a very large chunk of those 3 million were gonna die in 2020 anyway as they represent the weakest members of our population in terms of health. You may see a large spike in deaths for a few months but Id guess the overall deaths for 2020 wouldnt be all that much higher than normal.

Kind of like letting a bunch of prisoners out of jail in the spring when most were already scheduled to get out that year anyway. You come back a year later and the prison population is pretty normal as it has refilled with criminals again.

These viruses go after the weak and compete for the same low hanging fruit.

For every elderly that the coronavirus kills, that may be one less death in 2020 from the flu as corona beats the flu to the punch. You will probably see a drop in deaths for 2020 across the board for heart disease, diabetes, flu, etc as coronavirus plays the early bird and gets the worms.
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March 04, 2020, 03:23:35 PM
Merited by Paashaas (1)

SOURCE:
It is already happening, here in Italy.

Italy closing all schools and universities across the country and is set to close cinemas and theatres and ban public events across the whole country.

Decision will be decided in the next few hours.


Guys I am not kidding, the city where I live (does opsec means anything at this stage?) is looking like a big "28 Days Later" set.
No school
Work from home
Empty Restaurats
Empty Bars (unbelievable for an italian not to be able to drink a coffe standing at the bar counter)
No cinema
No gyms
Serie A matches being played with closed doors.
Do you watch Basketball? Armani Milano played vs Barcelona in an empty stadium, surreal.
serveria.com
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March 04, 2020, 03:25:30 PM

$9500 by 8th of March confirmed.

Get your Vegeta memes ready!  Cool
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1/21000000 , the only math you need to know


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March 04, 2020, 03:28:32 PM
Merited by kurious (1)

no fucking way creepy uncle Joe beats Trump

this whole election thing just became decidedly less entertaining

of course, Joe has a pretty high probability of blowing his own foot off in time for a Sanders nomination

Sanders v Trump is the TV show we all deserve
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March 04, 2020, 03:32:50 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (3)

Roach may be talking to a girl finally.
Roach finally met gembitz IRL. Since then they've been spending days and nights in bed together. gembitz visited WO several times but Roach got mad his bf distracted from sucking his D and so they both disappeared from WO for good.  Cool
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March 04, 2020, 03:37:17 PM

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Sideways continues... currently $8752USD/$11670CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Same old same old.

America get ready for another round of your favorite presidential election game: Giant Douche vs. Turd Sandwich.

I generally try not to step in the domestic politics of other countries but this was too hard to resist.



Same old same old.

 Grin
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March 04, 2020, 03:37:38 PM

no fucking way creepy uncle Joe beats Trump

this whole election thing just became decidedly less entertaining

of course, Joe has a pretty high probability of blowing his own foot off in time for a Sanders nomination

Sanders v Trump is the TV show we all deserve

What people have to understand is that it's the same shit either way.

One party wants to slow down the printing press, but wants to tax the middle class more to compensate.

The other party wants no more taxes on the middle class, but wants to keep the printing press going to compensate.

Either way, we're all fucked. The purchasing power of the dollar continues to fall, houses/things get more expensive, no one gets raises, everyone gets more in debt, etc.
rolling
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March 04, 2020, 03:39:25 PM

no fucking way creepy uncle Joe beats Trump

this whole election thing just became decidedly less entertaining

of course, Joe has a pretty high probability of blowing his own foot off in time for a Sanders nomination

Sanders v Trump is the TV show we all deserve

Trump vs Sanders would be the largest landslide victory in the history of presidential elections. No one over 40 is voting for a communist in America. No way he gets even 30% of the vote on a national level. Sanders might have done ok if he didn't refer to himself as a socialist. People still remember the USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics). In America, socialist means communism.
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March 04, 2020, 03:44:45 PM
Last edit: March 04, 2020, 03:57:45 PM by jojo69


Trump vs Sanders would be the largest landslide victory in the history of presidential elections. No one over 40 is voting for a communist in America. No way he gets even 30% of the vote on a national level. Sanders might have done ok if he didn't refer to himself as a socialist. People still remember the USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics). In America, socialist means communism.

maybe, maybe not

I am over 50, the USSR collapsed when I was in college and is a dim and distant memory.

Sanders might energize millennial voters in unprecedented numbers.

Or, perhaps, it turns out as you say, a good spanking and reality check might serve to shut them up somewhat.

Only one way to find out.
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March 04, 2020, 03:45:42 PM

It's not a pendulum, it's a cycle. It can't restart before it has either completed or a specific type of event happens that resets it. The "pendulum" does not simply stop at the halfway point and then go in the other direction.
It kind of does. It swings one way until it can't anymore, gradually slows down to zero, reverses its direction and repeats the same action but mirrored, then it resets and begins a new cycle.

It's the same thing, in some sense. If you project circular motion onto any straight line coplanar with the circle, you get harmonic (pendulum) motion.
Yes, but a pendulum swings through the same space. A pendulum could not have been described with the four pictures someone posted recently.
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March 04, 2020, 03:47:58 PM

I hear SKorea has the most reliable numbers because everyone is getting tested.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

So, yeah. A country is a little different from a ship.
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March 04, 2020, 03:54:02 PM

Coronavirus in Israel: Quarantine Ordered for Arrivals From Germany, France, Spain, Switzerland, and Austria
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-coronavirus-in-israel-over-1-000-high-school-students-put-in-quarantine-1.8627580

Germany bans export of masks and gloves over coronavirus
https://www.thelocal.de/20200304/germany-bans-export-of-medical-protection-gear-over-coronavirus
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March 04, 2020, 03:58:49 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (4)



Logic.



Makes no sense to me. You vote on a president or political party because it is the one that aligns most with your political view. You don’t vote on someone because it is the one that is likely going to win.
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March 04, 2020, 04:05:21 PM



Logic.



Makes no sense to me. You vote on a president or political party because it is the one that aligns most with your political view. You don’t vote on someone because it is the one that is likely going to win.
Some people just like to be on the winning side, even if they side has everyone being equally poor.
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March 04, 2020, 04:07:31 PM

Makes no sense to me. You vote on a president or political party because it is the one that aligns most with your political view. You don’t vote on someone because it is the one that is likely going to win.

The last person I voted for got my vote because she liked driving miniature trains. Anyone who does that for a hobby is clearly qualified to meddle with my future.
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March 04, 2020, 04:15:25 PM

2% mortality rate?
Closer to 10%. This is one of the worse examples of misinformation, something really needs to be done about it.

On the cruise ship, I think about 700 got the virus (20%) and 6 of them died.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

706 infected, 600 active cases, 100 recovered, 36 in serious condition, 6 dead. So far.

The way the death rate is being calculated, you could just as easily look at the recovered compared to infected. Only 14% recover from the virus! So a 86% mortality rate!

Ive been trying to get some clarity on the mortality rate and bc you really cant trust even the rich first world democracies and the strong incentive to under test for infections, I cant find any more reliable sample than the Diamond Princess.

Its a perfect lab experiment. A large sample of people, plenty of time for a random and large group to get infected, and we know that all but a dozen or so were tested, whether they had symptoms or not.

There are no other examples of entire towns or villages where everyone was tested to my knowledge. This means that any sample of positive testing patients cant give you a good mortality rate because you have no way of knowing how many others in the vicinity had the virus but showed little to no symptoms.

I realize that its possible a few more could die from Diamond Princess, but imo highly unlikely, they have had plenty of time for the disease to play out according to established time lines. It takes a good while to declare patients recovered because they need as many as three or more tests that come back negative and the virus can leave particles in the body that trigger the test long after symptoms are gone.

So you have 6 out of 700 dead, or a .85% mortality. Thats pretty bad, but way better than many estimates. But....... we are forgetting why that .85% death rate is way to high. Its a cruise ship, this population sample is OLD! The average cruise ship passenger is almost two decades older than the average citizen according to a few quick google searches. Its not scientific, but anyone who has been on a cruise knows that its mostly older people.

So now things start looking a lot better. A ship full of old people passed this thing around and .85% died. Yes about 80 infections were crew members who were likely to be much younger on average. Guess what, not one crew member died.

All this leads me to strongly believe that there is no way in hell the true mortality rate is not somewhere a good bit below .85%. Some quick napkin and SOMA calculations tells me this sample of people with their advanced age, factoring in for the normal age of the 80 crew members, and using the death charts by age data available, extrapolates out to about a .40% mortality rate.

About 4 times deadlier than the flu and enough to overwhelm Wuhan's hospitals once about half a million people got infected in a short span.

A large chunk of the people that will die from this would have probably died in the next 6 months to a year anyway. Its just a strain on hospitals bc usually these people kick the bucket in a drawn out period, not all at once.

Flu season already puts a big strain on ICU beds each year, its not cost effective to have a large oversupply of them.

This strain will be much less in countries where healthcare is more of a free market.

Its easy to see why the commies in China got overrun, they have free healthcare for all which means a shitty healthcare system.

This virus is gonna hurt communist and socialist countries more than free market oriented countries. Thats bullish for Bitcoin.

TLDR: Its just the Flu x 4 bro, and its hella bullish bc money printers are in hysteria right now.

Think that the passengers are getting the better care possible. If the health system of a country colapses, there are people that is going to die bc they can't access to drugs, oxigen, etc. not only coronavirus patients, accidents victims, cancer victims, etc.
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March 04, 2020, 04:17:28 PM

no fucking way creepy uncle Joe beats Trump

this whole election thing just became decidedly less entertaining

of course, Joe has a pretty high probability of blowing his own foot off in time for a Sanders nomination

Sanders v Trump is the TV show we all deserve
Ladies and Gentlemen!
Boys and Girls!
Biden time's here.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHU6K47qgc8

This will be fun to watch. I wonder if Trump will just order Biden arrested or something like that. Why not?

Also remember: Trump's only support demographic over 50% are those 60 and over. If they all die in a virus outbreak he's in trouble.
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March 04, 2020, 04:27:45 PM

So who else thinks markets (stocks) might be crashing more because of the election than because of corona, with corona just sparking the sell-off?
If Trump somehow did not manage to get re-elected things would be looking pretty bad for the economy.

Not that Sanders would manage to get anything passed that would raise spending by $100 Trillion USD, which by the way is way more than the $83 Trillion of the M3 supply of the entire planet, but he'd still be a significant downgrade that would devastate the markets.

Potential long opportunity come November?
So Bloomberg is out of the race and announced he'll put his weight behind Biden. Biden leading massively in delegates against Bernie now.

The same moment this happened the stock market saw its largest one day surge since 2009.

Didn't expect things to move this quickly, but seems like corona didn't matter much after all considering the number of cases has been blowing up.
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