Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Majormax]

Now lets hear the bull case.

Bitcoin is still Bitcoin. Nothing that makes it a valuable experiment has changed. Perhaps speculators got bit but that’s all part of the (speculation) game. If speculation would be Bitcoin’s purpose, the smash down would be bad. But Bitcoin’s game is totally something else (yes, it really is).

To me, the smash down may lengthen the path but does not hurt the experiment. Especially if the COV19 crisis leads to another round of again more crazy monetary experiments.

So nothing has changed, and the entry price just got lowered.

Solid arguments.

I never doubted Bitcoin.

Global recession and my latest panic buys fucked with my state of mind.

When everything gets resolved it may go back to 9k in no time.

Hopefully yes.

The correlation of this move with other assets looks omninous, but it is early days, and this market turmoil may have another chapter coming up.

Only thing to do is wait for the smoke to clear and then take a look in the rear-view mirror.

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[Ibian]

Italy has a 3.5% mortality rate with one of the best health systems in the world.  It’s not the fucking flu.

Dude. 15113 infected, 1016 deaths, 1258 recovered. That's either 45% or 27% depending how you prefer to calculate it. Yeah, not the fucking flu.

I agree with HM that its not a common thing atm, I think it will be a common thing in the future and people will be waaaaaay more relaxed when a vaccin is out for easy buying

Viruses mutate. An effective vaccine is highly unlikely.

If the idea is there already that there is a vaccine is already enough, alright later on the virus will mutate, but now when it’s contained they will keep working for new vaccines and not like when SARS was contained to stop working on it...

It can't be contained. That's why this is the big one. Everyone is going to get it, and if the mutation rate is anything like just the flu bro, then we could end up with a yearly recurring global pandemic.

There's another reason why an effective vaccine is going to be unlikely in the short term. First HIV has been around for 40 years and there is still no vaccine, some of the sequences on the spike protein for this virus have HIV homology. Secondly is, the SARS virus vaccine trials on animals revealed a mechanism known as Antibody-dependent enhancement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement which means if you get vaccinated with these vaccines then you are actually making yourself more susceptible to the virus because it hijacks the antibodies you created for it to attack your cells more readily. Which is the same mechanism that can also be triggered by a second strain of the virus which is similar but different enough to trigger a second immune response, in some cases progresses to a massive immune over-reaction, i.e. cytokine storm. (It's evil don't hyperventilate yet but just don't get it the first time). Some commentators speculated that those video clips from Wuhan and S. Korea of people collapsing in the street were cytokine storm victims who had somehow got an ADE response from a second virus infection. All that 80% mild case talk is dangerous because those people might have just made themselves vulnerable to secondary lethal infection regardless of how young healthy fit they are. In fact in that case a vigorous immune system is the threat because that is what will get you the second time around, your own body's immune reaction.

We are early days in understanding this beast.

Right. I think I need to get really drunk today.

[serveria.com]

Back up 15% from the bottom (Bitcoinwisdom). Noice!

[Saint-loup]

Good summary.  We will see 6.4k, maybe soon, but the key is what happens there. It has now become resistance. Even  7.5k , if rejected, is a very bad sign.

The bull case is a slow, slow consolidation, getting back above 8k by end of year.

The bear case is a quicker (1-2 month) move to ~7k, and another lower high.

Just TA stuff, for fun only.

+2k(ie +40%) in 1-2months is a bear case?  

[JayJuanGee]

you know that you sleep much better in BTC than in fiat,

Problem is I couldn't. My problem was buying too many dips recently. I was casually throwing $5k's. That was a huge mistake and was the main panic trigger for me.

Combined with that, what we just witnessed never happened before in the history of crypto If I am not wrong.

Of course, no two situations are exactly alike, but we have had similar kinds of dramatic price overshoots and impending doom scenarios.

So, yeah, you cannot be blowing your whole wadd and going completely in at a whole bunch of times and then you end up running out of money...

yeah, I am no fucking saint either.  Sure, I had buy orders going down to $3k.. but still, we were almost to the point that I was running out of money and then I need to think about adjusting matters too.

Furthermore, I already told the story from November 2018, I had a whole fucking bunch of bills  coming due from some business ventures that I had entered into.. and they were a lot, and I thought that I had enough cash to cover everything.. but then when push came to shove, I had to liquidate some of my BTC at around $4k in order to make sure that I did not use up ever fucking penny of my cash stash... and what if BTC prices went down more, I needed to be prepared... so yeah.. I made similar mistakes of running out of cash and budgeting wrong and not completely having all my expenses covered.

Surely takes planning to both DCA and to buy on dips, and even though you are buying on dips, you still need to attempt to stay within a budget that does not overextend your finances.

Hopefully, you figure out a meaningful way to get to some comfortable position, and for sure, you should be able to get to a position where you can sleep comfortably at night and you do not get too upset if you are not able to look at the BTC price for an extended period of time... however, yeah, when the BTC price moves by a shitload, sometimes we can feel a kind of need to look at what is going on, especially if we have outstanding orders that we are attempting to manage.. and yeah, if our net wealth goes down 50% in a short period of time, many of us will become a bit worried about those kinds of dynamics (both in terms of finances and psychology).

[Majormax]

Good summary.  We will see 6.4k, maybe soon, but the key is what happens there. It has now become resistance. Even  7.5k , if rejected, is a very bad sign.

The bull case is a slow, slow consolidation, getting back above 8k by end of year.

The bear case is a quicker (1-2 month) move to ~7k, and another lower high.

Just TA stuff, for fun only.

+2k(ie +40%) in 1-2months is a bear case?  

If it fails , yes, very much so. The bounce velocity mirrors the fall, its just a retrace before more downside. That's how markets move.

[JayJuanGee]

To keep things very simple, we had:

-December 2017: all time high 19.5k
-January 2019: low @ circa 3k
-June 2019: lower high @ 13.7k
-December 2019: higher low @ 6.4k
-February 2020: lower high @ 10.5k (very crucial price, the bulls will buy massively if we break above)
-March 2020: lower low 4k compared to December 2019, but higher low compared to January 2019

What is worrying in this thread is the constant higher lows (19.5k - 13.7k - 10.5k), this also means we should see at least another bounce (which would be a lower high again) at some stage, around 6.4k at least.

If I could invest big money (sadly my money is stuck at Epayments right now) I would buy a lot of Bitcoin to sell at 6.4k eventually (conservative approach).

What I also think is possible is to see a lower low compared to January 2019 which would mean 1k to 2.5k area (scary but possible). But if you are mentally strong it doesn't matter, we should see 6.4k again.

probably part of the reason that you do not have money to invest on your ideas is because they are dumb.

Furthermore, you seem to be selectively treating bitcoin as if it were some kind of abstract asset, and it is not.. we have convincing price prediction models that are likely to blow your dumb theories to shame... so good luck with that.. and I hope that you, at least, have stocked away enough money to pay LFC. which you are likely going to need to do long before the deadline of your December 2021 bet ending date.

[Review Master]

Not buying not selling... just HODLing...

That's the best thing for the long-term timeframe. But when you are a leverage/margin trader, it's very painful.

  Always , we have to remember that everything is unpredictable in the crypto-currency ecosystem. 

If no one buys the price won't rise up.

Don't worry about that because there are so many whales who will definitely try to push the price of bitcoin. As none want to lose their profits making systems. 

right - hodl is such fkcud up

only real scale & use can fix bitcoin

- finally:

hodl: no use case

make sure , you make a note of this .Because i am sure , you will definitely say in future that hodl is the best way in this current correction time.

Why don't you fuck off hv?  You hate bitcoin anyway

Some altcoin believers think that altcoin will cross bitcoin. But those don't know that most the altcoins depend on bitcoin price movement and price stabilization. That's why those create jokes of bitcoin's price dump to show that altcoin will pump. 

[AlcoHoDL]

Solar flare?

https://youtu.be/UG7zLhEWanc

---

All good, no worries, just for the lulz.

This is fine.

HoDL.

[Ibian]

Italy has a 3.5% mortality rate with one of the best health systems in the world.  It’s not the fucking flu.

Dude. 15113 infected, 1016 deaths, 1258 recovered. That's either 45% or 27% depending how you prefer to calculate it. Yeah, not the fucking flu.

I agree with HM that its not a common thing atm, I think it will be a common thing in the future and people will be waaaaaay more relaxed when a vaccin is out for easy buying

Viruses mutate. An effective vaccine is highly unlikely.

If the idea is there already that there is a vaccin is already enough, alright later on the virus will mutate, but now when it’s contained they will keep working for new vaccines and not like when SARS was contained to stop working on it...

It can't be contained. That's why this is the big one. Everyone is going to get it, and if the mutation rate is anything like just the flu bro, then we could end up with a yearly recurring global pandemic.

Last I read was that this was actually stable as shit, and not easily mutating but that was just some science shit not a bitcoin wall thread.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-mutations.html

The fact is that italians are dying by the double digit percentages. There are different strains, and no telling what will happen going forward.

[JayJuanGee]

but with this move in lockstep with stocks etc, it is looking more like BTC has matured .

Ridiculous.. bitcoin has not even come close to maturing.   

Now lets hear the bull case.

The bull case is that your seemingly wishful-thinking presumptions are ridiculous...   

[Cryptotourist]

You guys have to stop writing so much, though.

[Saint-loup]

Good summary.  We will see 6.4k, maybe soon, but the key is what happens there. It has now become resistance. Even  7.5k , if rejected, is a very bad sign.

The bull case is a slow, slow consolidation, getting back above 8k by end of year.

The bear case is a quicker (1-2 month) move to ~7k, and another lower high.

Just TA stuff, for fun only.

+2k(ie +40%) in 1-2months is a bear case?  

If it fails , yes, very much so. The bounce velocity mirrors the fall, its just a retrace before more downside. That's how markets move.

"That's how markets move" LMAO
You should be a little bit more humble IMO if you don't want to get rekt...
That's how markets move frequently... That's how markets move most of the times, you mean  

[OutOfMemory]

Italy has a 3.5% mortality rate with one of the best health systems in the world.  It’s not the fucking flu.

Dude. 15113 infected, 1016 deaths, 1258 recovered. That's either 45% or 27% depending how you prefer to calculate it. Yeah, not the fucking flu.

I agree with HM that its not a common thing atm, I think it will be a common thing in the future and people will be waaaaaay more relaxed when a vaccin is out for easy buying

Viruses mutate. An effective vaccine is highly unlikely.

If the idea is there already that there is a vaccin is already enough, alright later on the virus will mutate, but now when it’s contained they will keep working for new vaccines and not like when SARS was contained to stop working on it...

It can't be contained. That's why this is the big one. Everyone is going to get it, and if the mutation rate is anything like just the flu bro, then we could end up with a yearly recurring global pandemic.

Last I read was that this was actually stable as shit, and not easily mutating but that was just some science shit not a bitcoin wall thread.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-mutations.html

The fact is that italians are dying by the double digit percentages. There are different strains, and no telling what will happen going forward.

Two strains were identified so far. Science shit. Both were found in Italy.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2020/03/04/coronavirus-has-mutated-aggressive-disease-say-scientists/

There even was a profile available on the net, i saw it on my smartphone, so i don't have the link (private browsing always on).
Good news is that a vaccine will most likely be effective against both and also most strain mutations.

[Review Master]

1k to 2.5k

I'd buy back from $3k.

Quoted. Easy to say when BTC is above 5k...

using limit order make it happens. So if anyone want to buy in $3k than using limit order & stop-loss for margin trading will be the best way. Also bitcoin cross the 200 Moving average line , so anything can be possible. 

[kurious]

You guys have to stop writing so much, though.

Actually the WHO just announced pets are not a risk for passing on COVID-19.

So, it's true:  WHO let the dogs out.

[El duderino_]

Still remember 10K is only a double up from here 

[psycodad]

Italy has a 3.5% mortality rate with one of the best health systems in the world.  It’s not the fucking flu.

Dude. 15113 infected, 1016 deaths, 1258 recovered. That's either 45% or 27% depending how you prefer to calculate it. Yeah, not the fucking flu.

I agree with HM that its not a common thing atm, I think it will be a common thing in the future and people will be waaaaaay more relaxed when a vaccin is out for easy buying

Viruses mutate. An effective vaccine is highly unlikely.

If the idea is there already that there is a vaccin is already enough, alright later on the virus will mutate, but now when it’s contained they will keep working for new vaccines and not like when SARS was contained to stop working on it...

Problem is that the powerful players ('big pharma') are not the slightest interested in developing a vaccine due to lacking financial incentives. Why bother developing a vaccine to be sold for a few bucks the shot when you can sell cancer therapies that cost mio's each shot. All the successful big players sold their vaccine research years ago as no good profit is expected there.

Also by the time they would come up with a vaccine, the flu could be gone already (at least in public perception) and the money spent for nothing as once the fear and panic wears off nobody will buy that vaccine. Other diseases are more certain to stay and give good profits (i.e. cancer, alzheimer etc.).

We should all engage in a nice group hug and then get fucking drunk to just sit it out. Time is working for us hodlers but against almost everything else I believe (or maybe just hope).

As always, prepare for the worst, hope for the best, enjoy the ride.

[wavessurfing]

....

There's another reason why an effective vaccine is going to be unlikely in the short term. First HIV has been around for 40 years and there is still no vaccine, some of the sequences on the spike protein for this virus have HIV homology. Secondly is, the SARS virus vaccine trials on animals revealed a mechanism known as Antibody-dependent enhancement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement which means if you get vaccinated with these vaccines then you are actually making yourself more susceptible to the virus because it hijacks the antibodies you created for it to attack your cells more readily. Which is the same mechanism that can also be triggered by a second strain of the virus which is similar but different enough to trigger a second immune response, in some cases progresses to a massive immune over-reaction, i.e. cytokine storm. (It's evil don't hyperventilate yet but just don't get it the first time). Some commentators speculated that those video clips from Wuhan and S. Korea of people collapsing in the street were cytokine storm victims who had somehow got an ADE response from a second virus infection. All that 80% mild case talk is dangerous because those people might have just made themselves vulnerable to secondary lethal infection regardless of how young healthy fit they are. In fact in that case a vigorous immune system is the threat because that is what will get you the second time around, your own body's immune reaction.

We are early days in understanding this beast.

thank you for explanation, i learn something here.
hope not to be concerned !!!

[Tash]

....

There's another reason why an effective vaccine is going to be unlikely in the short term. First HIV has been around for 40 years and there is still no vaccine, some of the sequences on the spike protein for this virus have HIV homology. Secondly is, the SARS virus vaccine trials on animals revealed a mechanism known as Antibody-dependent enhancement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement which means if you get vaccinated with these vaccines then you are actually making yourself more susceptible to the virus because it hijacks the antibodies you created for it to attack your cells more readily. Which is the same mechanism that can also be triggered by a second strain of the virus which is similar but different enough to trigger a second immune response, in some cases progresses to a massive immune over-reaction, i.e. cytokine storm. (It's evil don't hyperventilate yet but just don't get it the first time). Some commentators speculated that those video clips from Wuhan and S. Korea of people collapsing in the street were cytokine storm victims who had somehow got an ADE response from a second virus infection. All that 80% mild case talk is dangerous because those people might have just made themselves vulnerable to secondary lethal infection regardless of how young healthy fit they are. In fact in that case a vigorous immune system is the threat because that is what will get you the second time around, your own body's immune reaction.

We are early days in understanding this beast.

thank you for explanation, i learn something here.

SARS appeared out of nowhere in 2003 since 2004 not a single case reported worldwide.
None of the existing vaccine will work when another new virus appears at some future time.
Something like 26 available now, at what stage is danger of overdose.
also
https://youtu.be/f1jV3tJ2Lqw
Vaccines are "over-unity" devices. 100% healthy + shot now 101% healthy