Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Again, bitcoin is cool and solid, but the rest are overheating like crazy in complete fever.
To me this looks like a setup for a nice dump. Maybe btc gets to 50-60K area before the dump, then at least 20% decline, which would basically bring us back to where we are now or even slightly below.

I am having a difficult time with your current conceptualization of what is a "dump" Biodom.

Really?  20% would be a dump?  And furthermore we get 20% up into the $50k to $60k territory, then we get a 20% dump which would mean that we would be back into the BTC price arena that we started.. hardly a dump, unless we are considering the matter from an ant's perspective.

Shitcoins should drop at least 40-70%, though. I don't want to name names, but many are 100-400% up in the last 7 days. Ridiculous.
For example see nicely engineered dump in overheated pot stocks today. -30% on the open on no news, just to "balance" things out.

I am also having some difficulties in appreciating any kind of importance in incorporating shitcoin dynamics in our analysis of the price dynamics of king daddy.  I think that it has largely been established that when we are trying to figure out what the dog is going to do (talking about wagging) in regards to its tail, we do not look from the perspective of the tail, but instead from the perspective of lil doggie... AmiNOTrite?

OK. So. I lied about not taking profit at $50k.

You are as wishy-washy as a kenmore.

Feeling greedy.

 Fair enough

Starting to move some coin today in preparation for $50k. That should give us enough liquidity buffer to buy the third and final parcel of land, and start putting up a basic steel/concrete garage on the lot ASAP, as well as covering costs for grading/paving the driveway, and bridge construction.

Nothing wrong with that.

Was looking over my accounts last night, about which account to draw down on, and decided "Fuck it. I like that money where it is, doing what it's doing. Might as well sell a little bit of corn at these prices."

Sue me.

You deserve to be batman slapped or maybe shakened like that lady on "airplane".. but whatever.  Nice to hear on the ground contemplations and some material funzies... which are the kinds of options that peeps have who have been HODLing their BTC for a long period of time.,. so even if the BTC price were $5k or $16,250, there is still a lot of profits in cashening out some (or even all in some more extreme examples) of the corns.

 

Does anyone have the list of WO members that need to be woken up at 50K?
...
BobLawblaw

Not selling at $50k. Decided we don't have any reason to, even on principle. Rick and I both have enough fiat set aside to last us comfortably for the rest of our unnatural lives.

Decided we're going to sell another mil when we're ready to start building on the ranch. The weather turned to shit overnight, so I suspect that's going to delay the engineering survey for possibly two weeks, but we are remaining patient, and not in a hurry to get the deal done.

Due diligence on a land deal the size we are considering is nontrivial. The agent repping us even commented "I've never worked on a deal this large for personal use"

Hahahahahaha

Just capturing this lillie juxtaposition of ideas from Blawb.. within 24 hours... even though I read these posts out-of-order.. ... captured for posterity, and a good lil chuckle... evidence of the kenmore theory.  

Don't sell the corn. In 10 to 20 years, each one will be 6 to 7 digits worth of US fiat.

I don't want to sound gauche, but I have more BTC than I will reasonably be able to spend in this lifetime. Will be passing along a life-changing sum of coins to my nieces and nephews upon my passing. I believe I am on record stating that I don't ever plan on liquidating more than an additional n BTC in this lifetime, to give you some perspective.

And, that would be part of the reason of NOT criticizing you too heavily in regards to the kenmore theory.

So, "as you were" soldier.

[bitcoinPsycho]

OK. So. I lied about not taking profit at $50k.

Feeling greedy. Starting to move some coin today in preparation for $50k. That should give us enough liquidity buffer to buy the third and final parcel of land, and start putting up a basic steel/concrete garage on the lot ASAP, as well as covering costs for grading/paving the driveway, and bridge construction.

Was looking over my accounts last night, about which account to draw down on, and decided "Fuck it. I like that money where it is, doing what it's doing. Might as well sell a little bit of corn at these prices."

Sue me.

Huh  have fun staying rich

[OutOfMemory]

The Bitcoin vs. environment trope is total bullshit.

A widely adopted, deflationary store of value is the only thing with the potential to overcome humanities tendency to instant gratification and rein in the senseless overcomsumption we see today.

If your money is going to be worth more tomorrow than it is today are you going to blow it on some worthless crap at WalMart or IKEA?  No.  You are only going to spend it on things with actual value.

Bitcoin incentivizes the deferral of consumption and planning on longer time frames, as such it is the best thing to happen for the ecology in all of human history.

Look who's speaking up  
And you pretty nailed it, again.

I was on the verge to post that the current fiat ecosystem (wtf?!) is causing multitudes of energy usage and heat/co2 production when compared to bitcoin.
Putting up a stupid thesis and write it up on the esoweb is also not a study, actually.

OK. So. I lied about not taking profit at $50k.

Feeling greedy. Starting to move some coin today in preparation for $50k. That should give us enough liquidity buffer to buy the third and final parcel of land, and start putting up a basic steel/concrete garage on the lot ASAP, as well as covering costs for grading/paving the driveway, and bridge construction.

Was looking over my accounts last night, about which account to draw down on, and decided "Fuck it. I like that money where it is, doing what it's doing. Might as well sell a little bit of corn at these prices."

Sue me.

* OutOfMemory files complaint 

[BobLawblaw]

* OutOfMemory files complaint 

It's a fair court.

[xhomerx10]

OK. So. I lied about not taking profit at $50k.

Feeling greedy. Starting to move some coin today in preparation for $50k. That should give us enough liquidity buffer to buy the third and final parcel of land, and start putting up a basic steel/concrete garage on the lot ASAP, as well as covering costs for grading/paving the driveway, and bridge construction.

Was looking over my accounts last night, about which account to draw down on, and decided "Fuck it. I like that money where it is, doing what it's doing. Might as well sell a little bit of corn at these prices."

Sue me.

[bitebits]

OK. So. I lied about not taking profit at $50k.

Feeling greedy. Starting to move some coin today in preparation for $50k. That should give us enough liquidity buffer to buy the third and final parcel of land, and start putting up a basic steel/concrete garage on the lot ASAP, as well as covering costs for grading/paving the driveway, and bridge construction.

Was looking over my accounts last night, about which account to draw down on, and decided "Fuck it. I like that money where it is, doing what it's doing. Might as well sell a little bit of corn at these prices."

Sue me.

Congratulations Bob, and Rick. Really, enjoy building the life you have been thinking about all those hodling years. I am sure you keep having a healthy stash in bitcoin, so who cares ?

[ghandi]

With all these big institutions finally onboarding, i get some kind of a sad feeling...maybe we have to say goodbye to -80% bear markets. I would miss them!

Accumulating in these price ranges just doesn't feel the same anymore. A Sat here, a Sat there...

Do what you can, and surely a lot of retail is going to be front run by institutional investors in the upcoming times because a lot of retail do not understand the value of bitcoin, so if you are accumulating sats, even at these prices, you are likely ahead of the vast majority of the population.

Don't get me wrong in regards to the fairness of bitcoin as an investment in regards to retail.  The truth of the matter remains that retail has had around 10 years or so to front run institutional investors, and ONLY a small portion of the population either recognized such opportunity and/or took advantage of such opportunity.  Cannot really blame anyone in this regard in general ways because sometimes regular peeps are just NOT in a position to invest, to study investments or to NOT get mislead by a decent amount of misinformation that ends up discouraging them from researching and/or starting some kind of actual investment strategy, even if quite modest - such as $10 per week or something like that.

From time to time, it can be good to look at where we are at in regards to our $10 per week over the past 7 years.

Yes, we see that we would have invested $3,660 but we would have accumulated nearly 4.5 BTC, so even modest investment plans can play out quite well in terms of establishing a decent stash - but surely the overall point remains that if institutional investors are getting all hot and bothered about BTC right now in terms of accumulating BTC before others can get into the game, then ONLY those regular investors (retail) who are willing to establish a plan and to get in now are going to have some kind of possibility of having decently low costs of BTC accumulation when we are looking 10 years down the road and everyone is figuring out what their BTC cost basis is as compared to the then BTC price.

Don't get me wrong. My first purchase was back in 2011. But i miss the days when buying bitcoin really meant buying a bitcoin. And not just "0.002BTC".

And since i am really bad at trading, my only chance to really gain substantially more was to sell somewhere in the upper bubble territory and just wait 1.5 years. But i'm not that sure anymore, that we will see these bear markets again when Tesla, Apple and Microsoft just try to buy it all.

[BobLawblaw]

Congratulations Bob, and Rick. Really, enjoy building the life you have been thinking about all those hodling years. I am sure you keep having a healthy stash in bitcoin, so who cares ?

Thank you for your kind words. It really is quite surreal at times. Have truly been blessed.

[eddie13]

It’s February..
Pump season doesn’t end till like December-January..

Still just the beginning..

[Biodom]

Again, bitcoin is cool and solid, but the rest are overheating like crazy in complete fever.
To me this looks like a setup for a nice dump. Maybe btc gets to 50-60K area before the dump, then at least 20% decline, which would basically bring us back to where we are now or even slightly below.

I am having a difficult time with your current conceptualization of what is a "dump" Biodom.

Really?  20% would be a dump?  And furthermore we get 20% up into the $50k to $60k territory, then we get a 20% dump which would mean that we would be back into the BTC price arena that we started.. hardly a dump, unless we are considering the matter from an ant's perspective.

I humbly advise to do more work on your reading comprehension, perhaps, as it is not where it should be, yet.

Congratulations Bob, and Rick. Really, enjoy building the life you have been thinking about all those hodling years. I am sure you keep having a healthy stash in bitcoin, so who cares ?

Thank you for your kind words. It really is quite surreal at times. Have truly been blessed.

Sure, congrats, of course.
That said, I have difficulty contemplating these moves as to why sell the best performing asset in the world and not others?
To each their own, though, plus your case might be different because of the presumed size of the stash and the timeline of when it was acquired.
It is difficult to carry the load for 8 years or more, I get it.
My plan is to sell forks and alts before I even look at bitcoin for selling some of it, which could be never.

[JayJuanGee]

Does anyone have the list of WO members that need to be woken up at 50K?

So far i remembered..

OutOfMemory
BobLawblaw

 Please put me down for a 200k wake-up call.
 Good night!

I am having some difficulties NOT watching the whole way UP.. ... and yeah, I still have not set my supra $100k sell orders, even though I am starting to consider that the supra $100k price arena is becoming more and more imminent in which waiting for the last minute might not be a good idea... because supra $75k could surely cause supra $100k to come quickly.

Regarding $200k or the supra $200k arena, that seems to be further off in terms of how much time that we might have to dabble in lower BTC prices along the way... but $200k does seem quite doable for this cycle which surely means this calendar-year or dragging into the first half of 2022.. perhaps... and gosh, it may not even be unrealistic to consider $200k as a modest price arena.. as your post seems to suggest, xhomerx10.... but yeah, no matter what with price we have the consideration of both amount and time.. so I cannot really determine from your post, xhomerx10, if you believe that $200k is more imminent than I am considering it to be, because if $200k were to not be imminent, then you may well be sleeping a long fucking time before anyone gets around to waking up ur lil selfie.   

[Dabs]

It’s February..
Pump season doesn’t end till like December-January..

Still just the beginning..

I listened to a few podcasts with PlanB and Willy Woo, and they both agreed pump season lasts about 18 months after the most recent halving, noting that there have only been two previous halvings. By their estimate, December 2021 might be a good ending.

He did note, that is all based on on-chain data, so show him any 1 month block of data, without prices, and he can tell you what he thinks if it's bull season or bear season, all without looking at the price.. interesting times.

They also talk about super-cycles, and this would be the first ever. It's quite possible we don't really see any "cycles" attached to halvings anymore, although for sure there would still be an effect of those as the supply that comes into the market gets cut in half on the next halving.

I'm tending to believe what Saylor said, that eventually, 200% annual appreciation would go down to 150% after a few years, then to 100%, then to 50%; but we will all get to see $500k and $1m, and from there it goes on slowly to $10m or higher.

[virasog]

Oh how much I  hate that guy!!! ... ... But I found myself some other sh!tcoins to daytrade on.

I hope you are not shortening bitcoin in day trading else you know what elon musk can do 

However, you can gain more profit by shortening shitcoins like Dogecoin 

[El duderino_]

Woooow so many newbies on the block ...

Is this good or bad ?

[Biodom]

It’s February..
Pump season doesn’t end till like December-January..

Still just the beginning..

I listened to a few podcasts with PlanB and Willy Woo, and they both agreed pump season lasts about 18 months after the most recent halving, noting that there have only been two previous halvings. By their estimate, December 2021 might be a good ending.

He did note, that is all based on on-chain data, so show him any 1 month block of data, without prices, and he can tell you what he thinks if it's bull season or bear season, all without looking at the price.. interesting times.

They also talk about super-cycles, and this would be the first ever. It's quite possible we don't really see any "cycles" attached to halvings anymore, although for sure there would still be an effect of those as the supply that comes into the market gets cut in half on the next halving.

I'm tending to believe what Saylor said, that eventually, 200% annual appreciation would go down to 150% after a few years, then to 100%, then to 50%; but we will all get to see $500k and $1m, and from there it goes on slowly to $10m or higher.

I also listened to those and also to NUPL discussion somewhere else, but it seems exceedingly unlikely that we would be able to maintain the tempo until December, which, in my opinion, makes this cycle similar to 2013 (two-humped) with a first peak earlier than expected, say, the end of Feb-early April at much higher than now (maybe 65-100K), then a steep correction to 40-55K (depending on whether it starts at 65 or 100), then flat city until the end of August, then the cycle hurrah burst to whatever number we can reach (150-288K, maybe even higher), ending in Nov-Dec, as usual.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Woooow so many newbies on the block ...

Is this good or bad ?

Good, mate. We need noobs to moon!

[kellrobinson]

Market cap to thermocap ratio. Supposed to indicate when bitcoin’s overpriced.

https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=Ratios&m=mining.MarketcapThermocapRatio


Couple of things I noticed about this chart. The indicator has steadily increasing lows, which you can see if you look at the chart carefully. And they used a linear chart to cover a couple of orders of magnitude, so the bottom gets squished and the tops get stretched out like taffy. They should have used a log scale for the indicator, just like the price above it. Here’s MCTC on a log chart, with a trend line that illustrates the aforementioned skew.



You can bend that red line and impose MCTC on bitcoin’s price history (yellow) to get a pretty good fit.



Which suggests imposing price history on MCTC



It looks like price history alone gives use essentially the same signal that MCTC does. Let’s generate an indicator without using MCTC.

The bendy red line two charts up is a parabola, and we can straighten it by running the data through a quadratic



Subtract the red line, and you have the indicator

[kellrobinson]

I'm sure JJG wants to bat-slap me now.

[JayJuanGee]

Haha what a joke. Some don't want the Bitcoin to reach 50k... Not yet..


Damn didn't move move my orders to buy the dip

I am one of them who does not want BTC to reach $50k as long as I get my salary and add some more into my wallet   then it could go to Moon or another space  

Whatever you might want or not want, king daddy bitcoin does not give any shits, and in that regard, you just need to do whatever you can in terms of your own situation to be reasonable and prudent in regards to your stacking approach or even if you might believe that the UPpity might be more likely than the flat or the dips that you are wishing for that might not happen.

Sure, you may well be excused in your delinquencies to stack sats in earlier days, and even seeing that you have less than a year of being registered in this forum.

Quiet curious when it will reach the highest Peak in this run?!  In the middle or last quarter of 2021? Or first one in 2022?

That's the million dollar question.  The peak could be a single peak that builds up and then has a blow-off top, or we could have one peak with a decent amount of downside that is extended for a significant period of time that ends up having a double peak.  Those are the two scenarios of either a 2017 single top or a double top that was more like 2013.   Sure there could be some other variation of that, or maybe there is hardly any upside left (which does not currently seem to be a very likely scenario).

We know that there are a lot of people and institutions who are currently making bets on upside BTC scenarios in the near to medium term, but none of us are really going to know how long the various cycles could play out, and such cycles could play out further into 2022 than the 1st quarter that you mentioned.  Personally, I feel like I have hardly any clues even though I recognize that various price prediction models have been playing out very closely in line with more likely scenarios.. and even those models are far from certain, even when BTC prices seem to be in-lock step with them.. Go figure?

Haha what a joke. Some don't want the Bitcoin to reach 50k... Not yet..


Damn didn't move move my orders to buy the dip

I am one of them who does not want BTC to reach $50k as long as I get my salary and add some more into my wallet   then it could go to Moon or another space  
Quiet curious when it will reach the highest Peak in this run?!  In the middle or last quarter of 2021? Or first one in 2022?

I would thought, with 50k there will be maybe a little larger dip?! so psychological thingy? Don't to TA, so ... I have no clue. I buy dips

Obviously you have few clues, dieselmeister, even though you have been seeming quite "dip-inclined" in recent months, and such dips that you seem to have been inclined for have not really been happening.. so there is that.  Sucks to be you.

Anybody keeping track of when the next major options expiry is?

... looks to me like "the team" is keeping a lid on things for whatever reason ...

You really believe that there is very much of an ability to really control BTC price matters in any kind of meaningful way?

Could be.. Yet, I have my doubt, for sure.

[Torque]

It’s February..
Pump season doesn’t end till like December-January..

Still just the beginning..

I listened to a few podcasts with PlanB and Willy Woo, and they both agreed pump season lasts about 18 months after the most recent halving, noting that there have only been two previous halvings. By their estimate, December 2021 might be a good ending.

He did note, that is all based on on-chain data, so show him any 1 month block of data, without prices, and he can tell you what he thinks if it's bull season or bear season, all without looking at the price.. interesting times.

They also talk about super-cycles, and this would be the first ever. It's quite possible we don't really see any "cycles" attached to halvings anymore, although for sure there would still be an effect of those as the supply that comes into the market gets cut in half on the next halving.

I'm tending to believe what Saylor said, that eventually, 200% annual appreciation would go down to 150% after a few years, then to 100%, then to 50%; but we will all get to see $500k and $1m, and from there it goes on slowly to $10m or higher.

This all makes sense, as long there are no major Bitcoin ETFs.

When major and prominent Bitcoin ETFs become a thing, they will likely blow a hole in the typical halving/bull-bear cycles of Bitcoin, as price will rise suddenly and dramatically in a hockey stick fashion, and then the curve will flatten out. Which will completely obscure any past price discovery mechanism of bitcoin through a supply/demand model, as prices will likely be orders of magnitude higher than typical due to Wall Street's extreme margin fueled over-leveraging. Bitcoin mining hashrate will possibly lag for years and years behind this event as mega miners struggle to get new hardware online.

That's why it's so critical for today's Average Joe to get in before Bitcoin ETFs begin to rule the day. Once this event passes, all bets are off and God knows who will be controlling the price of bitcoin beyond that point.