Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitcoinBunny]

This is very interesting. Someone (prolly El Dude?) posted here some news about some prominent hodler and bitcoin believer selling at $48-49k. What is happening now? Old boys losing faith? Of course we risk a lot. I haven't sold anything since 2011. In case the price goes down now, I am screwed: I'm sentenced to another 4 years (at least) without Lambos, hookers & blow.   Still I don't consider selling. Why? The cycle is not yet over. We barely touched all the previous blowoff tops and went down immediately which is not something we can witness at $50k mark. So we're probably waiting for a violent multi $10k pump followed by immediate heavy dump? I dunno but I have a gut feeling we (royal we of course) shouldn't sell now.      

OK. I'm going to say it, and many may disagree with me.

Despite all the fiat hate everyone here in WO may be vehemently expressing, I believe that many hardcore HoDLers are actually fiat supporters deep down. They won't openly say it, because they'll get a barrage of posts condemning them, but their actions show it clearly. Comments like "when to sell?", "I'll sell XX% of my stash", "I'm liquidating for my retirement". For some of them, Bitcoin has always been just a means to increase their fiat stash. They don't give a rat's ass about the tech, principles and ideology behind Bitcoin, as long as their wallets end up fat and full of fiat. That is their only goal.

Now, I'm not saying that the above mentality is unjustifiable. There's a reason for it. We were all born into a fiat monetary system, and it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to completely cleanse our minds from decades of indoctrination. We (still) live in a fiat world. Lambos (and now Teslas) may be Bitcoin-friendly, but not blow, and certainly not hookers, so there's a problem there... Personally, I see fiat as a transient state of wealth, where it is immediately spent to buy the things I want, such as a house, land, equipment, services, etc. I would not liquidate 20 BTC to get $1M just to keep in a bank or fund "for the future". I'd rather keep it in BTC and slowly use (convert into fiat only if such conversion is necessary, and only for the amount required), in order to immediately obtain what I need. I hope there will be a time when I can directly pay for all goods and services with Bitcoin.

I'll close with my usual rainbow footers:

Sell only when you must.
Buy when you can.
Always aim to HoDL.

I'd be quite happy once the bank I have a mortgage with gets desperate for BTC I can pay off my remaining mortgage with it. I'm hoping that is around the time I foresee BTC reach the $1 million mark (2025-2026). I'd prefer to be able to pay with BTC as I assume tax systems will/should leave me alone and not consider having to fork out extra BTC for capital gains tax which one should do right now when "cashing in" some BTC above a certain monetary fiat level.

What I'm saying is, I don't care it's fiat or BTC and I also don't see why a tax system should benefit from my jumping into BTC earlier than the average institution approach at all. Certainly considering many institutions avoid taking little profit out of companies so that they minimise their own tax bills.

[Arriemoller]

The source as I understand it is SVT, Swedish television website, it says so in the text.

" I’ve been getting most of my statistics from SVT, the Swedish public broadcaster. They had been providing data on the share with antibodies in Stockholm up to a month or two back, when that information discretely disappeared from their website. I wonder why."

[Arriemoller]

Always make sure your house has a fireplace. Friend in Texas is -3 temps and no power. A miserable heat pump won't do squat in that case.

... right, doesn't need to be wood fire just something that burns, when all else fails the ancient way to combat ice is with fire

... diesel, oil, gas, propane, wood, plastic ... anything that burns to survive, fuck these greenie idiots who've never lived in a true time of want or need

Gave you you last merit for that, take good care of it.

[_javi_]

What a disgusting poll !! And the results almost made me puke...

So do you really think 2.5x from last cycle is current top??  with all the money printing frenzy ?? c'mon!!

[BitcoinBunny]

What a disgusting poll !! And the results almost made me puke...

So do you really think 2.5x from last cycle is current top??  with all the money printing frenzy ?? c'mon!!

Isn't that the poll that asked for the top at the end of this year?

It will most likely rise well beyond that but may take some time.

It might be a bit like the electric car market, consider how Tesla is pretty much the most valuable car brand after others moved onto full electric far too slowly, leading to bad charging infrastructure and difficulty replicating Tesla's battery tech.

Other institutions will probably get on board with BTC but they are just (too) slow to react.
Once they all do expect things to jump quickly I guess, making a single BTC out of reach for the ordinary person, which it almost already is.

[Cryptotourist]

And there is still no lockdown in Sweden and very few people use face masks I might add.

95% wear masks here - everywhere - it's fucking disgusting.
About 50% of them wear it on their chin instead of their face.
About 2/3 of them do it for avoiding the fine. The fine!
1/3 of them - just to be on the safe side. The retard-ness is epic. Thank you TV.
[Only one official death on the island, and now they're saying our shit is full of COV.]

And then there is me.
I try to avoid getting into trouble at curfew, but - on principle - I don't mind when I do.
So far so good.

[I wore a mask a couple of times because I had to get things done. Then switched over to a balaclava, put a hoodie and sunglasses on, and looked like a fucking criminal. Only when I have to of course. I'm looking forward to having to go into a bank in particular.]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gWOFtixfies

[ghandi]

The source as I understand it is SVT, Swedish television website, it says so in the text.

" I’ve been getting most of my statistics from SVT, the Swedish public broadcaster. They had been providing data on the share with antibodies in Stockholm up to a month or two back, when that information discretely disappeared from their website. I wonder why."

So after the data "vanished" (show me an archive.org link first, that is was there in the first place. Maybe it was just never there and he just claims it was "removed"?) he only then started to make the data up?

[samson]

What a disgusting poll !! And the results almost made me puke...

So do you really think 2.5x from last cycle is current top??  with all the money printing frenzy ?? c'mon!!

Starting to take profits might mean selling 1 or 2 coins then resuming the hold.

[Arriemoller]

The source as I understand it is SVT, Swedish television website, it says so in the text.

" I’ve been getting most of my statistics from SVT, the Swedish public broadcaster. They had been providing data on the share with antibodies in Stockholm up to a month or two back, when that information discretely disappeared from their website. I wonder why."

So after the data "vanished" (show me an archive.org link first, that is was there in the first place. Maybe it was just never there and he just claims it was "removed"?) he only then started to make the data up?

Do it yourself, I'm not chasing your strawman.

[Arriemoller]

Going out to get me a photo for my new drivers license, just happened to see that it expires in a month.

[ghandi]

The source as I understand it is SVT, Swedish television website, it says so in the text.

" I’ve been getting most of my statistics from SVT, the Swedish public broadcaster. They had been providing data on the share with antibodies in Stockholm up to a month or two back, when that information discretely disappeared from their website. I wonder why."

So after the data "vanished" (show me an archive.org link first, that is was there in the first place. Maybe it was just never there and he just claims it was "removed"?) he only then started to make the data up?

Do it yourself, I'm not chasing your strawman.

I think, that's what we try to tell you: It's not your job, to find the sources that guy uses. It's his fucking job. As long he doesn't deliver, i don't care for his website. Easy as this. It's science, bitch!

[HairyMaclairy]

It should be possible to get a rough idea of how many of the trades on the book "disappear" before getting bought/sold. I think that would be pretty informative. I don't know if there are places that calculate this already? I don't believe that most (bigger) walls are actually honest. Why would anybody trade that way?

On our local exchange here in AU, there is a constant wall on both sides that is almost identical, that is constantly moving. When i query them about it, they said it was someone who was marking the market...

What does that even mean?   Mark to market is an accounting treatment to revalue assets in accordance With their fair market value.  It has nothing to do with order books.

[somac.]

This is very interesting. Someone (prolly El Dude?) posted here some news about some prominent hodler and bitcoin believer selling at $48-49k. What is happening now? Old boys losing faith? Of course we risk a lot. I haven't sold anything since 2011. In case the price goes down now, I am screwed: I'm sentenced to another 4 years (at least) without Lambos, hookers & blow.   Still I don't consider selling. Why? The cycle is not yet over. We barely touched all the previous blowoff tops and went down immediately which is not something we can witness at $50k mark. So we're probably waiting for a violent multi $10k pump followed by immediate heavy dump? I dunno but I have a gut feeling we (royal we of course) shouldn't sell now.      

OK. I'm going to say it, and many may disagree with me.

Despite all the fiat hate everyone here in WO may be vehemently expressing, I believe that many hardcore HoDLers are actually fiat supporters deep down. They won't openly say it, because they'll get a barrage of posts condemning them, but their actions show it clearly. Comments like "when to sell?", "I'll sell XX% of my stash", "I'm liquidating for my retirement". For some of them, Bitcoin has always been just a means to increase their fiat stash. They don't give a rat's ass about the tech, principles and ideology behind Bitcoin, as long as their wallets end up fat and full of fiat. That is their only goal.

Now, I'm not saying that the above mentality is unjustifiable. There's a reason for it. We were all born into a fiat monetary system, and it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to completely cleanse our minds from decades of indoctrination. We (still) live in a fiat world. Lambos (and now Teslas) may be Bitcoin-friendly, but not blow, and certainly not hookers, so there's a problem there... Personally, I see fiat as a transient state of wealth, where it is immediately spent to buy the things I want, such as a house, land, equipment, services, etc. I would not liquidate 20 BTC to get $1M just to keep in a bank or fund "for the future". I'd rather keep it in BTC and slowly use (convert into fiat only if such conversion is necessary, and only for the amount required), in order to immediately obtain what I need. I hope there will be a time when I can directly pay for all goods and services with Bitcoin.

I'll close with my usual rainbow footers:

Sell only when you must.
Buy when you can.
Always aim to HoDL.

You may be right, but I think you are being a little rough on some folk here. I'm sure most here will do only what you allude to in your second paragraph.

where it is immediately spent to buy the things I want, such as a house, land, equipment, services, etc.

For myself, I don't have a house, I indend to buy one this year and while I would love to pay for it in BTC that just isn't possible right now so I will have to sell a small portion to cover this needed expense. Now, while I could technically just max out on a loan, I'm actually fairly risk averse and having a house without having to worry about my savings decreasing in value is a hell of a load off my shoulders. I imagine/hope most here who intend to sell some of there stash will be doing it for those reasons, and not to have a pot of quickly devaluing fiat just sitting there.

I've said this before several times, the best use for your bitcoin is to generate an income from it (convert the income to dollars if need be). Use this income to retire on, the benefit is that you get to keep your bitcoin and not pay any capital gains tax. By keeping your bitcoin you can gain generational wealth, and the destruction of fiat will never be an issue to you.

[dieselmeister]

next try to breach the 50k begins ...  

[HairyMaclairy]

Exactly this.  Blockchains applications which are not currencies are worthless because any extraneous data added to the blockchain can be fake.  Only currencies do not require anything to be added.  

can be fake...maybe...not sure if 100% true due to decentralized oracles.
without going into too much detail, here is some info on the underlying problem and an attempt to find a solution.
https://medium.com/better-programming/what-is-a-blockchain-oracle-f5ccab8dbd72

I am not sufficiently math savvy to ascertain whether it is a real solution or not..js
it seems that bitcoin does not need that, but some sidechains might.

<Whoa? Not the best example, lol>

Biodom I will have to read your link.  

Edit:  Biodom I have read the link and am none the wiser.  Do these decentralised oracles vote?  What stops sock puppet attacks?

Basically, you posited that "any extraneous data added to the blockchain can be fake". Yes, people realized this quite a while ago and their solution is decentralized oracles where oracle is the node that transmits data into the blockchain. If multiple independent oracles provide the same data/value, then most likely then not I is prone to be correct. How this happens mathematically (how the data is aggregated by the network of oracles), I don't know. However, they posit that if individual oracles are hacked, deleted or depreciated, oracle network would still be intact, similarly to how bitcoin nodes all independently confirm the block and if you lose electricity to your node, the network would not be affected.
Without advocating this system at all, really, here is the direct link to the video just for understanding.
https://youtu.be/ZJfkNzyO7-U

With all due respect, how it happens mathematically is the important bit. anything else is just hand waving.

[julian071]

It's happening. Now.

[lightfoot]

Time for some astronaut images here.

[HairyMaclairy]

Was that a clearance shot to cleanse the leveraged longs?

[_javi_]

Lovely green candle on 15m chart (hammer?)

go honey badger, go!!

[somac.]

It should be possible to get a rough idea of how many of the trades on the book "disappear" before getting bought/sold. I think that would be pretty informative. I don't know if there are places that calculate this already? I don't believe that most (bigger) walls are actually honest. Why would anybody trade that way?

On our local exchange here in AU, there is a constant wall on both sides that is almost identical, that is constantly moving. When i query them about it, they said it was someone who was marking the market...

What does that even mean?   Mark to market is an accounting treatment to revalue assets in accordance With their fair market value.  It has nothing to do with order books.

Must mean make a market. As in they are market makers, still bullshit probably.