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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25463310 times)
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Torque
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September 25, 2021, 04:27:14 PM
Last edit: September 25, 2021, 08:22:34 PM by Torque
Merited by JayJuanGee (3), El duderino_ (3), vapourminer (2), BitcoinBunny (2)

We’re getting damn close to “shit or get off the pot” time for Bitcoin’s price. I think we’re going to see a big move towards the end of October and expect we’ll see a new all time high by November 2nd. Maybe that will be en route to a $200,000 Bitcoin exchange rate by the second week of December. Any variation from this path would have me getting concerned.

Legit question: I see posts like yours here on WO from time to time. This expectation of a magical price rise to X price by Y date, or else expectations get shattered.

Price doesn't just rise by magic. So who is going to provide this magical levitation? Why must Bitcoin hit a certain price by a certain date? Because a soothsayer chartist says so?

Not trying to be combative or negative, I'm just extremely curious in the thinking here. If you are thinking the PlanB S2F model, just know that it is not a self-fullfilling prophecy. Someone has to actually make it happen by buying. Actually a whole lot of someones doing a whole lot of buying in a short time frame (demand suddenly overwhelming supply). And they are not looking at someone's chart to decide when to do that.

In fact, the more people there are that believe the S2F model definitely will happen, the more that whale traders will have an incentive to NOT make it happen and do the opposite, fucking over both leveraged longs and shorts, and trying to shake out more weak-handed hodlers.
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September 25, 2021, 04:59:54 PM

More as exactly correct @Torque
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September 25, 2021, 05:01:28 PM


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September 25, 2021, 05:24:02 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (2), JayJuanGee (1), dragonvslinux (1)

BTC floor has been set. Large bids across all major exchanges.

BTC came within $1,300 of my on-chain floor model and is still $148,000 from my top model.

Do we trade a few thousand $ lower? I couldn’t care less. The asymmetry of being long over the next few months is huge.



https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1441777670774304772?s=21
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September 25, 2021, 05:28:11 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (3), JayJuanGee (2)

Although I am in a great RL crisis RN, I can't help but laugh at the latest "China bans Bitcoin" soap opera, Season 8, Episode 28. I wonder what Winnie the Pooh and his communist gang actually achieve by declaring trading via VPN of crypto as illegal? Do they have the capacity to track each of its citizens and impison them for using VPN? I haven't heard about a single sentence in China for using a VPN. The point of VPN and other ways of masking the computer is exactly this - to keep anonimity.

So, let's think about it. There are 3 ways to use a VPN and remaing undetected when contacting an exchange,  localbitcoins, paypal, revolut, etc. 1st, one can use a public computer and find one of the thousands free vpn services, not to mention the paid ones, which are much more secure. 2nd, one can go out of China temporarily to do so. 3rd, one can use a trusted friend or OTC intermediator to do it on his behalf. Regarding the selling, the solution is even simpler: make a bank account abroad and if one needs to transfer the profit in a China's bank, he must declare that the profit is made with the bank products e.g. stocks, like Amundi, Shroeder, etc which are offered by many banks. So, there is no way for this threat to make a real impact on the decision of even the poorest chinese peeps to invest in Bitcoin. That is the truth, and it must be known. In reality the number of chinese owning Bitcoins continues to grow. It is way more than we can imagine and that is why the legs of the communist gang are shaking to the point when the whole regime will collapse in an avalanche of bank bankruptcies.
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September 25, 2021, 05:29:07 PM

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September 25, 2021, 05:31:10 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (8), El duderino_ (7), vapourminer (5), JayJuanGee (3), AlcoHoDL (2), Torque (1), Arriemoller (1), nanobtc (1)

About LN, very interesting posts there, especially the long one by hisslyness (many thanks to him). I also remember Bob's struggle with LN some years back.

I don't know... I've never set up a LN node or anything, so I can't have an informed opinion, but the feeling I get by reading about it, is that it looks cool, simple, fast, cheap on the outside, but is quite complicated and messy on the inside. Also, the constant need for pampering the node, in order for it to function properly, is not good. These are not good signs, and I fear that they may cause problems for its future/success. I hope I'm totally wrong on this.

The whole thing brings back memories of Mike Hearn's blog post where he declares he's abandoning the Bitcoin project, and even jbreher's transaction limit posts here in WO... Don't get me wrong, I'm totally in favor of 2nd-layer solutions for micro-transactions and believe this is the future, but I sense that something may not be quite right (yet) in the current state of affairs in this matter. Just thinking out loud...

I think what we are watching is tech finding it's way.  It always does.  

The fact is Bitcoin encompasses the EXACTLY CORRECT mix of attributes to have been what was inside pandora's box.  I am not saying it's perfect.  I am saying it is more than perfect enough.  What I mean is it's limitations are not big enough to stop it, and tech will find the ways around those limitations.  It's amazing to me that Mike Hearn could not see this.  Because it is the fallacy of a beginning coder.  It goes like this:

1.  Make new software.
2.  Discover limitations and mistakes in the code or archetecture.
3.  Succumb to the temptation to tear it all up and start over.

Even with a project that does NOT need the "immaculate conception" that bitcoin had this rookie mistake is too costly to do much of the time.  Other important protocols, and software all have faced this moment, usually multiple times.  TCP/IP, Netscape/Mozilla/Firefox, Windows, Debain etc.  Those are all protocols and projects that reached breaking points and in ALL cases there was always a contingent of the choir saying that the solution is to just start from scratch.  And sometimes that does work.  OSX.  Chrome...  But Firefox has survived and overcome it's many gangly limitations over the years in spite of being the first mover and having to learn a lot of the hard lessons for the competitors to got to avoid "for free".  And in some ways BECAUSE of that.  It was the first mover.  I still use it.

But Bitcoin has a unique property.  It is a kind of software that we cannot really just "do over".  TCP/IP is the closest in that list, and it is no coincidence that it is a protocol, rather than an application, so to speak.  Because Bitcoin is arguably also more a protocol than an application.  And there are two reasons we have to "live with it" in spite of the issues that exist.

1.  It is "in production".  The train is moving and individuals, and companies have parked BILLIONS of USD worth of value in it.  It is in use.  Well over a decade of use at this point.  And value is flowing into it at an increasing pace.  The question of whether it has become too big to stop yet is being argued still.  But I think the argument is starting to become very hollow.  Roger Ver tried to stop it 4-5 years ago, and it crushed him.  He may not be ready to admit it yet, but he has lost at LEAST hudreds of millions of USD in value by betting that an "improved" version of Bitcoin would be able to overtake the production network.  Too late.  Too late 4 years ago.  Too late now.

2.  It is becoming money.  AND it is doing so as a decentralized (unto distributed) network that no single player fully controls.  Not even the developers.  (BCH proves that as well.)  And because of this if we try to start over it will be inferior in this most important ways EVERY TIME.  Pre-mined, gamed, centralized etc.  And the world is waking up to this.  The smartest folks can see at least intuitively why Bitcoin is unique.

So... The lightning network?  And all it's problems?  I will not go through the argument here... but the need for on chain transactions is one.  I believe this will be what it will be.  Bitcoin will become much more expensive to use as it is used more and more, and the users will figure out all kinds of novel ways to optimize this without tearing down the protocol.  Lightning is one.  One clue to this actually working is El Salvador.  For them bitcoin is simply what is inside Chivo, or WoS, or Muun or whatever.  They don't care about "on chain" or "base layer".  They have not only MOVED past that argument... they STARTED past it.  And they are using the Bitcoin network nearly for free.  I can imagine there will be people who NEVER DO a base layer transaction in their lives, and yet will live on Bitcoin.  AND it is possible for them to do so in a self-custodial manner.Yet not required.

What about the difficulties of running a lightning node.  I am not sure how long I have been running a node... But the current one is about 2 years old. and the other one was something like #197 on the network.  So three years?  I have worried about channel balancing, and I have not.  I have added and subtracted channels along the way.

Crazy thing is along the way it is getting easier and easier to use.  Some of my channel partners keep their channels meticulously balanced.  Personally?  I do not see the benefit in this.  It really only matters if you have a very small number of baldy connected channels.  If you have several well connected channels then you can make and receive payments all over the place.  And your NODE stays balanced even if your channels do not.  I assume if I were living out of it I would have to continue to inject value into the outgoing liquidity side to keep the system working, but that is now easily done using all KINDS of tricks.  Opening and closing a channel, yes, but also looping in and out, leasing liquidity etc.

I believe as the LN evolves we will see it begin to manage itself as far as balancing goes.  MPP for example will make stagnant small channels useful, and I think as pathfinding evolves nodes can be smart enough to manage their fees in a way to drive traffic into and out of the channels that need a little push.  Software can do ALL OF THIS.

I will leave you with one prediction... Wink

Some minders, in the future, will monetize their businesses, not only by SELLING the bitcoin they mine, but also by locking it into the LN (and other layer two) as they competitively become the new payment network of the world.  Why would they SELL it all?  The only reason now is they need it for OpEx.  Well, there is another way coming that lets them HOLD it, and make money as well.

Mike Hearn is undoubtedly a smart dude.  But he was wrong.  Very, very wrong.
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September 25, 2021, 05:45:29 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (3), JayJuanGee (1)

About LN, very interesting posts there, especially the long one by hisslyness (many thanks to him). I also remember Bob's struggle with LN some years back.

I don't know... I've never set up a LN node or anything, so I can't have an informed opinion, but the feeling I get by reading about it, is that it looks cool, simple, fast, cheap on the outside, but is quite complicated and messy on the inside. Also, the constant need for pampering the node, in order for it to function properly, is not good. These are not good signs, and I fear that they may cause problems for its future/success. I hope I'm totally wrong on this.

The whole thing brings back memories of Mike Hearn's blog post where he declares he's abandoning the Bitcoin project, and even jbreher's transaction limit posts here in WO... Don't get me wrong, I'm totally in favor of 2nd-layer solutions for micro-transactions and believe this is the future, but I sense that something may not be quite right (yet) in the current state of affairs in this matter. Just thinking out loud...

Yes, LN has been undergoing ever-increasing rounds of complexity as it seeks to provide what Bitcoin does on-chain off-chain. There are all sorts of caveats, gotchas and pitfalls and the need to settle on-chain introduces some interesting limitations as discussed by Peter Rizun and the scope creep has been quite large also (LN was originally envisioned for micro-transactions). Unfortunately, the censorship initiated by Theymos also removed a lot of the warning voices regarding potential issues with LN from the community and a largely sanitized presentation has prevailed. Hisslyness's post of his experiences is not too unexpected really.

I'm not going to make the obvious argument here because it's not helpful in context. It would be nice if LN could succeed but it seems to be very much an example of second system syndrome.

This is a particularly interesting moment in the evolution of Bitcoin.  Either the LN and other layer 2 systems solve the base scaling problem.  Or?  They don't.  And it's still a question on which bets can be placed.

I believe the VERY FIRST response on the punks mailing list to Satoshi's announcement was "It does not scale".  And theat person was effing smart.  Because they could see far enough down the road to realize that the architecture of bitcoin was flawed if it was to keep all of it's important attributes.  I have assumed that person was someone familiar with networks.  And saw that bitcoin was a "broadcast network".  I am not math nerd.  But I get why continuing as a broadcast network is not really possible without centralization.

Imagine if cell phones worked this way.  When you were talking:  Every cell tower on the entire network would be transmitting your conversation.  As well as every other conversation.  This cannot work.  Not yet.  Possibly not ever.

The issue is not can hard drive get big enough to store the blockchain, but can the network itself sustain the amount of traffic produced when every person on the planet is using it.

That guy back in 2009 was right.  It does not scale.  Not that way.

So how will it?

I believe we are seeing the answer to that question being decided in real time in the arena of production software.  It really is quite exciting, isn't it?
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September 25, 2021, 06:01:36 PM


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This is so under-merited.
Everyone should really read this. Thank you jojo, everything in one place.
^

Right, Jojo's not only on point with his memes!
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September 25, 2021, 07:01:27 PM


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September 25, 2021, 07:52:19 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (2), Torque (1), 20kevin20 (1)


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Good to see BTC is working  Cool  Cheesy
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September 25, 2021, 08:00:33 PM


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Good to see BTC is working  Cool  Cheesy
Wow. More users than any bank in El Salvador? That sounds insane and if it's true and all users are legit, it's big news! Are they really that unbanked or is Bitcoin just gaining so much attention over there?!
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September 25, 2021, 08:02:54 PM

I don’t know but indeed if it’s accurate then it’s crazy for sure
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September 25, 2021, 08:40:09 PM
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I've never understood how Raoul Pal could be such a fan of altcoins. Many people have tried to argue against them with him, and pretty much failed because he didn't consider them on an equal playing field (i.e., he didn't respect them enough to hear and consider the argument).

So finally, FINALLY, someone like Michael Saylor comes along lays it out for him. I sincerely hope he gets it now and quits being so delusional. In addition to just being completely worthless, so many of these shitcoins will also be categorized by the SEC as securities, not commodities, and also won't be willing or able to comply with proper AML/KYC rules.

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1441507151202160641
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September 25, 2021, 10:28:41 PM

I've never understood how Raoul Pal could be such a fan of altcoins.

Raoul Pal is absolutely NGMI. Dude's portfolio is something like 5% BTC, 70% ETH, and 25% other, IIRC.
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September 25, 2021, 10:52:12 PM
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I've never understood how Raoul Pal could be such a fan of altcoins.

Raoul Pal is absolutely NGMI. Dude's portfolio is something like 5% BTC, 70% ETH, and 25% other, IIRC.

oh an eth freak fuck him. 70% eth

jack ma leader of bitmain on of china’s richest people is poof vanished for months.

bitcoin is doing okay.

if mr v vanishes i believe eth will tank to sub 1000 in under a week
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