Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hamza2424]

So it's going to be 6 weekly red candles in a row? Damn. Nothing makes sense anymore.

I think I'm just gonna periodically keep posting this... it's getting comical at this point.

Periodically yeah... maybe next year... oh well.

Well Its the fact that 6 red candles make no sense...
But Sir I thing First 3 Justifying then next 3 Makes no sense reason is LUNA made Huge buying, Made Proper BTC long term Buying Roadmap, South Africa Accepted BTC as legal Tender, Brazil made BTC regulations steps forward, Mining Difficulty on ATH.
Europe is considering Crypto, Mexicos announcements about BTC.
So many other updates as well Which seems Truly Bullish.
But still market showing a panic Sell off.

What now 7th red Candle or Reverse pattern of 3 Green 1 red and then again moving forward to ATH ? Seems dreemy now.

Just 1 Reason i am considering the New investment more assets should be Transferred on Crypto but Now Rumors are for the Majour Dip again to Bounce back.

[1714220381]

1714220381

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Franctoshi]

So it's going to be 6 weekly red candles in a row? Damn. Nothing makes sense anymore.

Periodically yeah... maybe next year... oh well.

Bitcoin does what it wants to do at any given time , the entire market is getting so bored
If you take a proper view on the weekly and monthly time frames ,I believe you will get better understanding of what is likely
going to be our future price target because I can see a lot of liquidity around 28k,32k, 35k,so  is likely the institutions may take the advantage and sell around that zone and crash the market down to $20-$19k, and I think it's going to be retested again.

[Krubster]

Bitcoin is on sale today, a great buying opportunity. One of my buy orders got triggered, let's see if any of the rest will be filled.

Looks like the stock market and BTC both took a dive when Ukraine announced the start of their offensive.
Don't ask me why though.

This drop has all to do with the Fed's raising the interest rate I'm afraid.

In times like this, the sensible thing would be to diversify into btc. But let's get real, lately the btc price has been heavily correlated with Nasdaq. More often than not, it tends to move in the direction Nasdaq is moving.

But one these days, that supply shock has to kick in. One of these days, my friends...

[BobLawblaw]

Over 50%+ trades belongs to the BTC and second ETH and other Alts as follow.

Related: I learned about APE earlier today. I can't believe the degenerate shit continues... Thank Christ I upped my medication.

Not sure how I'd cope otherwise with everything going on in meatspace fuck.

crash the market down to $20-$19k, and I think it's going to be retested again.

I don't see this happening. Hearing talk of Saylor being margin called at $21k, and it's not clear to me how/why we would drop that low.

Strange times to be sure.

[Bitcoinaire]

I still think we see new ath's by q4.

[Arriemoller]

Maybe a worry that Russia will collapse?

Vyacheslav Volodin, the Chairman of Russia’s State Duma, also commented on the report on Thursday. In his Telegram post, he claimed that the “militants at Azovstal had suggested swapping the remaining civilians there for food and medicine.” Volodin also revealed the terms of the alleged deal – “fifteen hostages for a ton of food, as well as medicine.” He also added that the Ukrainian troops supposedly “warned that they would no longer release anyone to Ukraine,” but rather exchange for goods.

The Russian politician accused the Ukrainian forces of having first lured civilians into the steelworks, only to later use them as human shields and attempt to trade them for food. According to Volodin, the besieged pro-Kiev troops effectively equated a human life with 66.6 kilograms of goods. The Russian official claimed that the Ukrainian fighters were only interested in saving their own hides.

He described this behavior as typical of “terrorists.”

And yesterday they claimed that Ukraine was using black magic, they are truly desperate now.

https://www.ibtimes.sg/ukraine-accused-using-black-magic-against-russians-state-media-makes-bizarre-claim-satanic-64440

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

Huge red dildo, dammit...  

We might get a green dildo next. Dildos come in both colors.

these would be very nice in brass.

Just think of all the brass balls your car would have.

@nohomo

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[empowering]

Maybe a worry that Russia will collapse?

Vyacheslav Volodin, the Chairman of Russia’s State Duma, also commented on the report on Thursday. In his Telegram post, he claimed that the “militants at Azovstal had suggested swapping the remaining civilians there for food and medicine.” Volodin also revealed the terms of the alleged deal – “fifteen hostages for a ton of food, as well as medicine.” He also added that the Ukrainian troops supposedly “warned that they would no longer release anyone to Ukraine,” but rather exchange for goods.

The Russian politician accused the Ukrainian forces of having first lured civilians into the steelworks, only to later use them as human shields and attempt to trade them for food. According to Volodin, the besieged pro-Kiev troops effectively equated a human life with 66.6 kilograms of goods. The Russian official claimed that the Ukrainian fighters were only interested in saving their own hides.

He described this behavior as typical of “terrorists.”

And yesterday they claimed that Ukraine was using black magic, they are truly desperate now.

https://www.ibtimes.sg/ukraine-accused-using-black-magic-against-russians-state-media-makes-bizarre-claim-satanic-64440

Who is "they" ?

Is it a bunch of journalists/news presenters ?

Can't trust journalists, or news presenters, especially ones from a country at war....neither Russian, Ukrainian, American, British etc etc


They are just filling their airwaves with wall to wall waffle, struggling to find shit to say, in their own propaganda push.... not surprising.


Doubt putin is getting updates about the "black magic risk"




 

[empowering]

Maybe a worry that Russia will collapse?

Vyacheslav Volodin, the Chairman of Russia’s State Duma, also commented on the report on Thursday. In his Telegram post, he claimed that the “militants at Azovstal had suggested swapping the remaining civilians there for food and medicine.” Volodin also revealed the terms of the alleged deal – “fifteen hostages for a ton of food, as well as medicine.” He also added that the Ukrainian troops supposedly “warned that they would no longer release anyone to Ukraine,” but rather exchange for goods.

The Russian politician accused the Ukrainian forces of having first lured civilians into the steelworks, only to later use them as human shields and attempt to trade them for food. According to Volodin, the besieged pro-Kiev troops effectively equated a human life with 66.6 kilograms of goods. The Russian official claimed that the Ukrainian fighters were only interested in saving their own hides.

He described this behavior as typical of “terrorists.”

At least this is supposedly from the horses mouth......... though I would not be surprised if this is bullshit too tbh.... could be legit, but could not be

[JayJuanGee]

"Are the cunts and 'special service' douchebags in the room with us now?"

Damn right.

Ok..


stick with your convictions.







Double down.




No problem.

Finance School Bentley University Now Accepts Cryptocurrency Payments for Tuition



Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/finance-school-bentley-university-now-accepts-cryptocurrency-payments-for-tuition/

I did send you an smerit... this time because you did provide a link to the source , and it is somewhat topical here because really the jist of the news is that such Bentley University is accepting Bitcoin and two shitcoins... (Ethereum and USDC)... or perhaps it could be described as accepting Bitcoin, one shitcoin scam and one shitcoin stable coin (that for now is pegged to the shitcoin called the US Dollar) -

You also did fuck up by failing/refusing to downsize the image.. - which I did in this post (and you can see in the HTML underlying source) and which I will might cut you a few breaks in this regard.. but such persistence in failing/refusing to downsize images starts to seem purposeful, lazy and can make the difference in terms of whether your posting style is considered sufficiently contributory to the thread  or not - and surely other members share such sentiments that newbies who are merely posting links to outside information without commentary should get into the fairly straight-forward practice of image-downsizing** might not deserve any love if they do not seem to be trying hard enough... I personally get more ting-a-lees from member comments and clarification within the posting.. but sometimes I will still send smerits to such seemingly smerit-whoring posts because I appreciate being able to find those kinds of various news-item pieces in this thread without my having to search for them in locations outside of this thread - the more related to bitcoin the better too.

** By the way, regarding the alleged imposition of chartbuddy on usability of this thread, seems like a big so fucking what to me.  Yeah, chartbuddy might seem less repetitive during times that more posts are made on the thread, yet it hardly seems imposing to for me to find whole thread pages with more that 10 chartbuddies contained therein (note there are 20 posts per page in forum threads).... and yeah, lots of chartbuddies surely does show the lack of thread activity - but it also shows what the BTC price was during each of those hours too.. and also could end up easily showing a reference to the BTC price at the time of any particular post that ends up talking about Bitcoin price dynamics - or lack thereof.. and many times, members do not mention what the BTC price was at the time of their post - including yours truly - even though I do sometimes still want to say what the BTC price is at the time of my post... especially if I am trying to talk about where this price has been or where it might be going.

One more point in respect to possibly talking about stable coins or talking about the dollar - there surely is a difference - but there surely also can be not much material difference if we might be referring to some stable coin in terms of short-term BTC price movements, and we do not necessarily proclaim that the dollar is not relevant in this here thread because we are still centrally valuing bitcoin in terms of dollars - which we are likely going to continue to be doing for a decently long period of time - 20 years or more... but surely it seems that we are going to continue to experience ongoing increasing skepticisms regarding the various ways that various shitty fiats are devaluing around the world even more than the dollar (which continues to be relevant to various ways that we measure our level of get richie status.. which there are a lot of relevance in terms of get richie status as a topic, especially if we are somehow trying to relate such topic towards bitcoin's likely ongoing role in that whether aspirational or just maintaining or liquidating from such), and in any event, there remains ongoing likely propping up of the dollar that continues to come from such sources of other fiats struggling more than than the dollar and therefore contributing towards dollar life support outcomes - even if their varying failures were not intended to contribute towards such outcomes.  

Never change the WO name please

Hahahahaha

Exactly.

Can you imagine some kind of attempt to make it more social justice friendly... .. or actually to consider that bitcoin has become something else.


On the other hand.. for sure there may well be some day in which we might well be asking about what exactly is the dollar again?  which through the years of this thread some folks have already been asking that question increasingly.. hhahahaha.. .. but yeah, who knows ... we are getting close to 10 years of this thread.. and will it still be alive in 10 or 20 years from now?  will it just be 18 chartbuddies per page.. with one or two old timers - who still have not gone to that reprogramming place in the sky, making their post per week or post per month.. and scraggler WO OGs coming back and posting from time to time..

 

[empowering]

Think its fair to say, extremely fair to say that, in Ukraine right now, Both Russians and Ukrainians are doing some retarded, awful, insane, horrific shit to each other, to themselves, and to anyone that happens to be in their path.

That is what happens in a war, including, especially even, the wars we , the west, have started.....


It is not candy and picnics and puppies.


It is not a game to be cheerlead by anyone, and especially not fucking media cunts on any side.


Whole thing is a disaster, from every angle, every vantage point for Ukraine, for Russia, for both of their peoples and their children, and so it also is for the rest of the world.... just wait until those energy and food price hikes really kick in in 6-9 months or so....


....and that is just assuming things do not escalate.


It is a fuckin shit show.





 

 

[Biodom]

It is a fuckin shit show.
 

As per Guardian, they talk indirectly via Israel premier now.
Maybe too little too late, maybe not.

The 30K-60K bitcoin range is holding, but no expected bounce to 50K so far, a bummer.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

We are 50% through the fourth #Bitcoin Epoch!



50% of Blocks have been mined since last halving.
105,000 to go!
Expected halving date: 3 May 2024!

Nice little reminder.

Remember PlanB had proclaimed that the Stock to Flow model suggested an average of $100k for the whole period.. which logically means that the 200-week moving average should end up at that prognosticated price level by the end of the whole 4-year period.

I know people are tending to be so damned bummed out in regards to our being supposedly way behind schedule, and it does seem that we are likely beyond schedule, but it also seems to me that each of the last two years, we have had right around a doubling of the 200-week moving average, so if we are able to get a doubling of the 200-week moving average in the next two years, which surely does not seem completely impossible  that would end up putting the BTC price ONLY 13% below the $100k projections... **note: technically the 208-week moving average might be more accurate - and it runs a bit lower than the 200-week moving average if we are referring to a 4 year average, but the 200-week moving average is close enough for these kinds of estimating/projection purposes.

Too pie in the sky?  I am not sure.

Look at this possible projection of the 200-week moving average price.

Current 200-week moving average price                                 =  $21,700

May 2023   - 2x in the 200-WMA from previous year                =   $43,400

May 2024   - another 2x in the 200-WMA from previous year    =   $86,800

I don't consider the stock to flow model to be even close to total rubbish in terms of giving us both directional ideas and even magnitude ideas (even if some adjustments may well be needed to be made to account for how actual facts might not ended up lining up exactly with projections).  

Of course, I had previously mentioned the 100-week moving average to be a great measurement for where we are at half-way through the halvening period, and right now the 100-week moving average is at nearly $35k.  **note: again I believe that the 104-week moving average might be more accurate, but the 100-week moving average is more commonly used, and the link I cited below might be using something closer to the 104-week moving average rather than the 100-week

You can find the historical 200-week moving averages here

You can find the historical 100-week moving averages here

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Kinda near my birthday

I expect big things from the fallout of the next halving. I dunno if our last bull run was diluted due to the fall out from what COVID did to the world economy. We did not have a blow off top like after previous halving’s.

I really think $250,000+ will be the price of 1BTC at some point in 2025 (obviously it always takes a while for the supply shock to take effect on the price post halving).
We will get the fireworks that we were promised in 2021.

Now is a good time to buy but I am waiting for lower with a large stack of fiat.

You already know that I don't really agree with your theory about how things are going to end up working out because I believe that you are both being too rigid and also building in a kind of presumption of disappointment regarding our 2021 performance - even though factually you are true.... and you may well end up being correct in regards to how all of this is going to play out between now and 2025-ish... ...

For sure, I am quibbling in terms of degree.. and also quibbling a bit with your waiting to buy.. even though you may well end up being correct about that too.. .hahahahaha ..

It is not like any of us longer term bulls are really wrong, even if we might well get some details wrong along the way, here and there... .. including that mostly HODLing has been a great ass strategy - whether you consider mostly HODLing as 50% HODLing, 75% HODLing or 95% HODLing....

Actually, it seems that even some of the more bearish bitcoiners who engaged something less than 50% HODLing and maybe even ONLY retained something like 25% did pretty damned well for their lil selfies - even if the higher levels of HODLing seem to be closer to the better practices.

One thing that each of us (supposedly adults with decent decision-making capacities) is to attempt to structure in such a way that we feel that we did a pretty damned good job - even if there might well end up being ways that we could have structured some of our actions a bit better, but in the end, we have been doing something close to our best with the information that we have and attempting to include adequate considerations of our emotional status too... in order to end up with decent results because we largely stuck with a plan that we figured out would work within a variety of possible BTC price performance scenarios.. and if our plans have some flexibilities in them they end up with pretty high levels of performance even if NOT perfect performance .. but maybe even something like 80% perfect or something like that  - which ends up being pretty damned good - especially if we are comparing ourselves to various no coiners who ended up getting hardly any of that.. and even the ones that dabbled way too whimpily.. and for sure we have received pay-offs for not dabbling too whimpily -  at least in regards to bitcoin - not sure if we can make those claims to all areas of our lives because there are likely ways that a lot of us guys (and gal) have various other faults in other aspects of our lives.. without necessarily wanting to judge too much.

I am reminded of one more thing.. and no real issues with guys wanting to dabble in luxury items of hookers, lambos and blow, but for sure some kinds of consumption can end up screwing us up in various ways - in terms if there might be some ways that we might be able to help our own health with life style choices, and bitcoin does seem to have a pretty wide-spread ability to incentivizing desires to live longer and to be able to be stronger into old age - but along the way, some of us might have bad luck and even genetics or accidents that end up taking away from our quality of life and our longevity... . even though so many bitcoiner guys talk about life-extension ideas that seem to delve into pie in the sky - including ways that snake oil salesmen can take your money.. and none of us can really know.. the various ways that buying some products or services might actually work rather than being filled with claims of being able to achieve life-extension or reverse negative health conditions. --- in other words, reasons to live longer (partially because of bitcoin) but ability to actually benefit from that extra money may not necessarily materialize as much as we might wish to take place.

I really think $250,000+ will be the price of 1BTC at some point in 2025 (obviously it always takes a while for the supply shock to take effect on the price post halving).
We will get the fireworks that we were promised in 2021.

Now is a good time to buy but I am waiting for lower with a large stack of fiat.

I like your analysis, your projection and your attitude.
I liked your plan, and I would also like your lower bids not to be filled… I don’t know if the sats I could eventually stack are worth the pain of the mark to market. I am no a big swinging dick mature investor as you are.
Speaking about targets, still looking for 170k as first target because of… reasons!

Gosh.. it is really difficult to attempt to figure out how much a blow-off top might go.. even if it is a kind of preliminary blow off top.

Of course, guys here likely know some of my failed calls about deadman zone... .. but I have still had some general correctness from time to time too.. such as:

mid to late 2016:  If it goes over $1k don't be fucking selling until at least $2k..

or

late 2017:   If it goes over $10k, we are likely going to get at least 15% out of that all by itself.


or

late 2019 & most of 2020 - if it goes meaningfully above $17,250 we are likely to get at least $24k


So I have also had some level of success.. but I also get a bit scared about getting into specifics, even though my December 6, 2021 numbers and timeline are pretty specific, and I doubt that I have too many reasons to get outside of that kind of framework, even if the actual numbers and the timeline have to be updated to account for what has actually happened (in reality) since December 6.

[Torque]

DiVERsIfiCATioN Is KEy To MiNiMizINg LoSSeS