Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Even with all the calamity in the marketplace, Bitcoin has held up extremely well.  It's more stable than most other things even when you look at a 90 day chart.  When you look at what's happened over that time, it's amazing to see things so flat.  There was the FTX drop but not the volatility you'd expect afterwards.  More clear signs that we have to be in the accumulation phase.  Now is the time to be filling your bags with BTC and setting those bags on ice for 2 years.  If the paper Bitcoin problem gets solved, we could be in for real fireworks this next time around.

I fear paper Bitcoins will remain. A new sucker born every minute

Yep.. truth of the matter is that paper bitcoin will be hard to eliminate complete.. even though it is likely people will get burnt, and burnt and burnt when they do not adequately protect themselves during circumstances in which paper bitcoin are "at issue."

Look: you, me an OgNasty can go out for dinner and fun on the town, and then the bill ends up being 1.2 Bitcoin.. but we decide NOT to pay it all in full at the moment.. so maybe OgNasty covers for you and me, Gachapin.. and therefore we each owe him 0.4 BTC.. and we decide to do payments over the next 4 years... or maybe 2 years?  who knows?. we can figure out something... but in the process of agreeing to our paying back the guy with the BIG bucks (aka OgNasty), then we have created 0.8 BTC.. but hey, if we settle our bill in 4 years and pay back Ognasty for all the fun that we had out on the town, then we are back to normal after we pay him back.. and who's going to stop us from entering into such an arrangement if we all agreed to it?

Of course, we are free to make almost any contract even to our disadvantage, and we are free to trust each other or not.

However when customers buy 1 Bitcoin and they agree with the seller (exchange) that he'd hold it for them, that doesn't mean that they agree (or even know) that the same 1 Bitcoin is sold to several other people as well.

I doubt that we are saying anything different.  My main point was that our agreement results in our creation of money.. blame OgNasty for that because he granted us credit.

Sure, it is possible that we never end up paying him back.

In comparison: Banks do fractional reserve too. But there is public reliable info that they do it, and that they even have a legal permission to do it ... fwiw
So you knowingly agree to such terms when creating a contract with them.

Maybe we are disagreeing here, in part?  because I doubt that the bank is very much different, except they are just doing it on a larger scale, and they specialize in that kind of service of loaning and creating money and sure they follow standards too.. and they have licenses and permissions.. but we are able to do those kinds of things too.. just more informally.. and of course, banks might get so specialized and BIG that they are permitted special status to fuck people over.... and you remember in March 2020 or soon thereafter, banks were allowed to go from 10% reserves to zero% reserves...

Moral hazard in regards to loans and creation of money can exist on either side of the loan.  Maybe we don't really disagree? - each of us is just emphasizing different aspects.

With exchanges though, I estimate that none of them publicly admit to do fractional reserve although many of them certainly do.  So they never disclose it to their contracting partner, which turns it into some kind of legal or at least moral fraud (depending on local laws)  

Of course they engage in fractional reserve, and I doubt that governments are going to necessarily want to stop them from engaging in behaviors to attempt to undermine bitcoin - even though sometimes they might give some lip service to "protecting people" so both of us realize, likely, that it will take a while to change behaviors and even for customers to realize that they might have to be able to preserve their contractual relationships with third parties that allow them to take possession of their coins.  Some third parties will be more responsible than others, and so we all have to get used to some of these dynamics, including figuring out how much we might want to participate in any of those transitional services that are going to continue to evolve. but not without several casualties along the way including that some of us could become casualties as well if we do not sufficiently / adequately play our own hands.

[edited out]

I think CZ is smart and skillful in general at running a big exchange.  

But he chose to play the official spokesperson for his company, so it becomes part of his job to handle difficult questions and attacks in hostile interviews.  

He clearly showed to be not well prepared for this part of his job.

Either you do the job right, or you assign a trained PR or media professional for that task.

There is just no room for fuck-ups or weak answers in such an environment (huge company, reach of interview, critical timing for credibility)

Yes.  Maybe he does need to delegate some of that spokesperson work.

Elon should delegate some of his work sometimes too.. and sometimes big leaders have trouble with some of that.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[HI-TEC99]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

Even with all the calamity in the marketplace, Bitcoin has held up extremely well.  It's more stable than most other things even when you look at a 90 day chart.  When you look at what's happened over that time, it's amazing to see things so flat.  There was the FTX drop but not the volatility you'd expect afterwards.  More clear signs that we have to be in the accumulation phase.  Now is the time to be filling your bags with BTC and setting those bags on ice for 2 years.  If the paper Bitcoin problem gets solved, we could be in for real fireworks this next time around.

I fear paper Bitcoins will remain. A new sucker born every minute

Yep.. truth of the matter is that paper bitcoin will be hard to eliminate complete.. even though it is likely people will get burnt, and burnt and burnt when they do not adequately protect themselves during circumstances in which paper bitcoin are "at issue."

Look: you, me an OgNasty can go out for dinner and fun on the town, and then the bill ends up being 1.2 Bitcoin.. but we decide NOT to pay it all in full at the moment.. so maybe OgNasty covers for you and me, Gachapin.. and therefore we each owe him 0.4 BTC.. and we decide to do payments over the next 4 years... or maybe 2 years?  who knows?. we can figure out something... but in the process of agreeing to our paying back the guy with the BIG bucks (aka OgNasty), then we have created 0.8 BTC.. but hey, if we settle our bill in 4 years and pay back Ognasty for all the fun that we had out on the town, then we are back to normal after we pay him back.. and who's going to stop us from entering into such an arrangement if we all agreed to it?

Of course, we are free to make almost any contract even to our disadvantage, and we are free to trust each other or not.

However when customers buy 1 Bitcoin and they agree with the seller (exchange) that he'd hold it for them, that doesn't mean that they agree (or even know) that the same 1 Bitcoin is sold to several other people as well.

I doubt that we are saying anything different.  My main point was that our agreement results in our creation of money.. blame OgNasty for that because he granted us credit.

Sure, it is possible that we never end up paying him back.

The point is, if we take your example, the dinner we "had" wouldn't even exist (at least not enough for us both).
So we'd owe him money (or BTC) for something we could never have.

...At least, if we are still talking about buying paper BTC on exchanges doing BTC fractional reserve

[Gachapin]

In comparison: Banks do fractional reserve too. But there is public reliable info that they do it, and that they even have a legal permission to do it ... fwiw
So you knowingly agree to such terms when creating a contract with them.

Maybe we are disagreeing here, in part?  because I doubt that the bank is very much different, except they are just doing it on a larger scale, and they specialize in that kind of service of loaning and creating money and sure they follow standards too.. and they have licenses and permissions.. but we are able to do those kinds of things too.. just more informally.. and of course, banks might get so specialized and BIG that they are permitted special status to fuck people over.... and you remember in March 2020 or soon thereafter, banks were allowed to go from 10% reserves to zero% reserves...

Moral hazard in regards to loans and creation of money can exist on either side of the loan.  Maybe we don't really disagree? - each of us is just emphasizing different aspects.

Yes we could do it ourselves. The important part is if the contract partner is informed or not (or can be sure) that the lender is doing fractional reserve.  With banks you are informed, and you can take that knowledge into account when deciding for or against a contract.

With exchanges though, I estimate that none of them publicly admit to do fractional reserve although many of them certainly do.  So they never disclose it to their contracting partner, which turns it into some kind of legal or at least moral fraud (depending on local laws)  

Of course they engage in fractional reserve, and I doubt that governments are going to necessarily want to stop them from engaging in behaviors to attempt to undermine bitcoin - even though sometimes they might give some lip service to "protecting people" so both of us realize, likely, that it will take a while to change behaviors and even for customers to realize that they might have to be able to preserve their contractual relationships with third parties that allow them to take possession of their coins.  Some third parties will be more responsible than others, and so we all have to get used to some of these dynamics, including figuring out how much we might want to participate in any of those transitional services that are going to continue to evolve. but not without several casualties along the way including that some of us could become casualties as well if we do not sufficiently / adequately play our own hands.

sure, you and I know exchanges do FR but it must be officially disclosed to their customers in order to not be fraud, IMO

[Gachapin]

is she a cRyPTo trader?  dumb question.. of course she is...

[Biodom]

For the discussion above, i would posit that the number of truly "existing" bitcoins in the circulation is an unknowable number.
Yes, we know how many were "issued" aka mined, but all we know are UTXOs.
We don't know if the last "owner" lost his/her key or not BEFORE they either sign the next txn or sign the message with the address signature.

btw...who is the dude on the right? Jenny was much prettier before too. Time does not play nice with anyone, sadly.

[bangjoe]

brrrrrrrrrrr.......
heyyy friend!
The remaining five dollars of your daily allowance are worthless...
If you put it in the bank and hope that one day you can buy a supercar...
huppppttt....are you crazy?...
Trust me, my friend, your money will be eaten up by inflation and bank cuts and your dreams will vanish unless you store that money in Bitcoins.

Come dance with me when the price comes back

[Hueristic]

btw...who is the dude on the right? Jenny was much prettier before too. Time does not play nice with anyone, sadly.

Iggy Pop

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Unknown Op]

Just for Fun  

Brain Test: if you have an eagle eye then find the word BLUB in 10 Seconds.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Cryptotourist]

He wants validation.... like we all do.

Bonding with your favorite butt buddy.. aka cryptotourist..

and, no... I am not jelly.

btw...who is the dude on the right?

As much as I love hanging around with you perverts, it’s a summer like day here again, so I’m hitting the road.
Cya later girls.

In the death car

[Cryptotourist]

Suck or the butt plug,
degenerated perverts,
the wall observers.

#haiku

[WatChe]

Shadowy US Spy Firm Promises To Surveil Crypto Users For the Highest Bidder

“Anomaly 6 data can be used in multiple use cases to support cyber intelligence and operational use end states,” the leaked crypto sales deck declares. “By utilizing multiple targeting methodologies, this data can support the building of a far superior intelligence picture that enables clients to move towards actionable end states. Fusing A6 data with other classified and unclassified data sets places the client at the forefront of the cyber mission space.”

Other leaked Anomaly 6 files openly discuss how its technology is ripe for both “counterintelligence” and “source development” purposes, and it’s not merely U.S. citizens in the firing line. The firm boasts of having spied on the movements of “devices from other friendly countries,” including members of the Five Eyes global spying network, and France and Germany.

In other words, Anomaly 6 turns every citizen on Earth into a potential “person of interest” to intelligence agencies, and thus a target for recruitment, surveillance, harassment, and much, much worse, the most intimate details of their private lives easily accessible by shady actors with a few clicks of a button, and without their knowledge or consent.

Data is the new currency of the 21st century, just like oil and gold are in previous centuries.
The more connected we are with worldwide Web, the more data we generate and more we are in eyes of government agencies.
There is similar legislation in my country few months back when government asked internet users to register all VPNs with central telecom regulatory authority (though it was funny). The idea behind this legislation was to identify the anonymous traffic.
These days governments don't have full grip on citizens unless they have full visibility of what's going in and out of country via Internet.

[Popkon6]

Just for Fun  

Brain Test: if you have an eagle eye then find the word BLUB in 10 Seconds.  

World Number 46

[HI-TEC99]

brrrrrrrrrrr.......
heyyy friend!
The remaining five dollars of your daily allowance are worthless...
If you put it in the bank and hope that one day you can buy a supercar...
huppppttt....are you crazy?...
Trust me, my friend, your money will be eaten up by inflation and bank cuts and your dreams will vanish unless you store that money in Bitcoins.

Come dance with me when the price comes back

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation