Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

[1714807464]

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[1714807464]

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[macsga]

[...]
Can you maybe reign in the fawning over loaded (or, alternatively rpietla or whoever happens to be the whale-de-jour)?
[...]

Term of the day by oda.krell (I'm a little rusty and slow at it, but actually I read EVERYTHING, despite popular belief...)

[fognozz]

^ Yes, but by that logic then the price hitting 25k having bought at $500 as opposed to $1,000 is the same as it hitting $50k, so it does make a big difference - double.

You are totally correct, but I'm looking at it in a different way than just numerically. I have an extremely long investment timeframe (10 years or more), and modest desires, so any kind of "large gains" will create a life-improving situation for me.

So 10K, 50K, 1000K per BTC it's all fine....although I'd be concerned about the high end. Frankly, I've read and seen what "wealth beyond avarice" does to people, I don't assume that I'm going to be the one who would resist that.

What are you doing in here? Get away while you still can, they'll corrupt your mind!

+1 to that lot, if (when) Bitcoin succeeds fiat prices are irrelevant but wealth is dangerous stuff, it corrupts. I think it could be a similar (maybe even bigger) transfer of wealth to the industrial revolution. That resulted in lot of horrible situations but it was also a golden age of philanthropy, greed's an undeniable vice of human nature but Bitcoin has a hell of a lot of morality in its foundations

LOL, stan! Pretty much past the corruption stage....I "lived large" for a few years, and while it's fun in a "theme park" sense (Big House! Shiny Car! First Class Seats!), it didn't feed my soul. So I live pretty simply these days and work at making connections with people.

But I'm not a monk, so a certain amount of cash is needed to fund that lifestyle- Bitcoin is one of several binary "bets" I've made, with a little luck one of them will pay off.

(OK, I really liked the First Class Seats.....  )

[ShroomsKit]

;TLDR Not being in Bitcoin today is too risky.

This is what I also believed before jumping in to be a full time market analyst. But with decent excel skills it is possible to model many situations where it makes sense to have less than 100% in bitcoins, or trade.

I have so many lines of data and charts, for example I have analysed the bottoms of the recent crashes to 5 minute precision in all of the exchanges to find out where I get the coins cheapest and in largest quantity, and how quickly it falls, how quickly it bounces back, what volume is reasonable to expect, so what size of orders are best to use. From next week I have a new half-time assistant doing mainly the analysis of exchange behavior, so that the capturing of tops and bottoms should happen with even greater precision.

Why I mentioned limit orders is that unless you have 24/7 trading (which I don't know if anyone has), it is reasonable to have quite a lot of fiat parked in the range 20-50% below the current price. The crashes are so deep and in a sense so predictable (not possible to know when they will happen, but play out quite the same every time) that the exact placement of orders can net you BTC10s easily. For example the Silk Road crash was an actual opportunity to buy at $90 in October. Yes, December-November-October. So many things happen in Bitcoin which cannot be predicted but can be captured with limit orders. Not being in Bitcoin is risky, but cutting your # of coins in half by insisting to buy now is not too smart either.

It is a shame that only stupid people tend to reply to my analysis, you know the ones who only want to know if the market will go up this afternoon (which in fact is the thing I could influence the most, thus nullifying the actual predicting) and cannot comprehend an advanced prediction such as "with 70% certainty we visit $450 before hitting $1,100 which makes it a wildly profitable +32% EV play after fees".

I am sorry if any person in any standing whatsoever has been offended because of my hard speech towards the trolls who don't know how to behave respectfully.

Besides there are some strawmen arguments that I have been wrong with market calls. There is one that I remember (quitting yelling "crash" when we had climbed to the top) but every other call since the start of the October bull market has been correct afaik. If you want to say that I was wrong, please post the wrong call in context and explain why it was wrong. Or refrain from lying.

Do you ever stop talking about yourself?

[NamelessOne]

;TLDR Not being in Bitcoin today is too risky.

This is what I also believed before jumping in to be a full time market analyst. But with decent excel skills it is possible to model many situations where it makes sense to have less than 100% in bitcoins, or trade.

I have so many lines of data and charts, for example I have analysed the bottoms of the recent crashes to 5 minute precision in all of the exchanges to find out where I get the coins cheapest and in largest quantity, and how quickly it falls, how quickly it bounces back, what volume is reasonable to expect, so what size of orders are best to use. From next week I have a new half-time assistant doing mainly the analysis of exchange behavior, so that the capturing of tops and bottoms should happen with even greater precision.

Why I mentioned limit orders is that unless you have 24/7 trading (which I don't know if anyone has), it is reasonable to have quite a lot of fiat parked in the range 20-50% below the current price. The crashes are so deep and in a sense so predictable (not possible to know when they will happen, but play out quite the same every time) that the exact placement of orders can net you BTC10s easily. For example the Silk Road crash was an actual opportunity to buy at $90 in October. Yes, December-November-October. So many things happen in Bitcoin which cannot be predicted but can be captured with limit orders. Not being in Bitcoin is risky, but cutting your # of coins in half by insisting to buy now is not too smart either.

It is a shame that only stupid people tend to reply to my analysis, you know the ones who only want to know if the market will go up this afternoon (which in fact is the thing I could influence the most, thus nullifying the actual predicting) and cannot comprehend an advanced prediction such as "with 70% certainty we visit $450 before hitting $1,100 which makes it a wildly profitable +32% EV play after fees".

I am sorry if any person in any standing whatsoever has been offended because of my hard speech towards the trolls who don't know how to behave respectfully.

Besides there are some strawmen arguments that I have been wrong with market calls. There is one that I remember (quitting yelling "crash" when we had climbed to the top) but every other call since the start of the October bull market has been correct afaik. If you want to say that I was wrong, please post the wrong call in context and explain why it was wrong. Or refrain from lying.

I try to avoid online warzones so I'm not commenting on that, but I must add that I have highly enjoyed your analysis and hope you continue forward regardless of peoples reactions. I think you deserve kudos for predicting the drop to the 400s before we had even hit $1250. Your trendline is also in sync with a number of other people's trendline predictions I've seen on this forum and around the net. As far back as August a couple others had targeted $1000 for May-June 2014 with a possible bubble in between. I don't care about day to day up or down movement, the real action is in the big moves mid/long term. No one is being forced to follow what you are posting, I've been impressed by your analysis thus far. =)

[mmitech]

Theymos broke me.

The End.

what ? how ?

[adamstgBit]

Theymos broke me.

The End.

what ? how ?

because of the img proxy CB cant post the charts anymore. the img proxy is there to stop poeple from being able to get other people's ip address

[QuestionAuthority]

Theymos broke me.

The End.

what ? how ?

Security features implemented after the last hack of the forum. It's the reason avatars can't be changed and animated GIFs no longer work.

[ChartBuddy]

OK, maybe not

Weird interactions.

[mmitech]

;TLDR Not being in Bitcoin today is too risky.

This is what I also believed before jumping in to be a full time market analyst. But with decent excel skills it is possible to model many situations where it makes sense to have less than 100% in bitcoins, or trade.

I have so many lines of data and charts, for example I have analysed the bottoms of the recent crashes to 5 minute precision in all of the exchanges to find out where I get the coins cheapest and in largest quantity, and how quickly it falls, how quickly it bounces back, what volume is reasonable to expect, so what size of orders are best to use. From next week I have a new half-time assistant doing mainly the analysis of exchange behavior, so that the capturing of tops and bottoms should happen with even greater precision.

Why I mentioned limit orders is that unless you have 24/7 trading (which I don't know if anyone has), it is reasonable to have quite a lot of fiat parked in the range 20-50% below the current price. The crashes are so deep and in a sense so predictable (not possible to know when they will happen, but play out quite the same every time) that the exact placement of orders can net you BTC10s easily. For example the Silk Road crash was an actual opportunity to buy at $90 in October. Yes, December-November-October. So many things happen in Bitcoin which cannot be predicted but can be captured with limit orders. Not being in Bitcoin is risky, but cutting your # of coins in half by insisting to buy now is not too smart either.

It is a shame that only stupid people tend to reply to my analysis, you know the ones who only want to know if the market will go up this afternoon (which in fact is the thing I could influence the most, thus nullifying the actual predicting) and cannot comprehend an advanced prediction such as "with 70% certainty we visit $450 before hitting $1,100 which makes it a wildly profitable +32% EV play after fees".

I am sorry if any person in any standing whatsoever has been offended because of my hard speech towards the trolls who don't know how to behave respectfully.

Besides there are some strawmen arguments that I have been wrong with market calls. There is one that I remember (quitting yelling "crash" when we had climbed to the top) but every other call since the start of the October bull market has been correct afaik. If you want to say that I was wrong, please post the wrong call in context and explain why it was wrong. Or refrain from lying.

quite barging already and stop acting as you are the smartest trader here, I do remember at one point you saying that you could buy the whole existing bitcoins I mean WTF...

you are what we call new money, people who are "so rich" should help some charities instead of acting smart and trashing people with "I have more you should listen to me" because this is just sick .

in the other hand these are the people who I love watching around the Bitcoin economy http://america.aljazeera.com/watch/shows/live-news/2013/12/bringing-homelessoffthestreetwithbitcoins.html


in case he decide to delete his post like he always do

When I first heard about bitcoin, I could have bought it, lol. No, seriously, I could have bought maybe 5% of the supply and drive the price up 10000%.

Too bad, somebody else did. I suffer the consequences.

my main argument was that during the run up of apple and google there were people who said exactly this

im saying bitcoin is similar, you still wanna throw that bet down  you never replied to that you nancy

No, I never had the money to buy the entire market cap of either Apple or Google. With Bitcoin, many of us did. Now THAT is a remorse.

[wachtwoord]

you are what we call new money, people who are "so rich" should help some charities instead of acting smart and trashing people with "I have more you should listen to me" because this is just sick .

People "should" do, whatever the hell they please. No-one here needs classes in your morality.

[ChartBuddy]

[mmitech]

you are what we call new money, people who are "so rich" should help some charities instead of acting smart and trashing people with "I have more you should listen to me" because this is just sick .

People "should" do, whatever the hell they please. No-one here needs classes in your morality.

freedom right ? although some people want to kill,rape,steal..... you know just saying.....


Ok now back to the topic, I apologize once again, I will stick to the topic and ignore posts that hurts my eyes.... everyone have the right to express their point of view, but I am going off-topic because of some of the "smart" posts... it wont happen again

[Voodah]

Wake up to find no movement and 3 pages of butthurt people bashing on rpietila yet again. Ffs..

If you don't like they guy, just Ignore him. You guys are the ones doing the dick comparison and contesting his every post... just leave it be...

I happen to like and appreciate getting ALL input possible, so I can then better make my own conclusions.

I'd much rather have 5 rpietila guys posting wrong analysis than the 5 noobs who focus on character bashing, and add no real value to the forum. You may not like the style, the ways or the conclusion; if so, just Ignore. If you go into fanatic-bashing-mode, well that tells a lot about yourself to others and it almost always points to fear or envy (or just a juvenile mind).

This is market speculation. We're not choosing a Nobel prize nor trying to find the next mother Theresa here. Rebut analysis with analysis or stay quiet. You don't like this analyst? Head for the next one. Bashing is the least interesting and constructive form of participation in any activity (and the most sad as well).

I pity the fools who think they are on some personal crusade against rpietila or any other forum member. That kind of fixation is never a sign of a balanced person.

 

[ChrisML]

It's so boring right now.

I started mining Dogecoins LMFAO. 1150khash

If it just slightly bubbles and goes up to a worth of around $0,0789 I'd be happy with the rate im mining now.

[macsga]

I think Loaded is at it

It's so boring right now.

I started mining Dogecoins LMFAO. 1150khash

If it just slightly bubbles and goes up to a worth of around $0,0789 I'd be happy with the rate im mining now.

Much profit...
Such wow... 

[optimi]

Can someone explain to me what is happening right now?

Here are a few reasons I can think of myself:

1. Someone thinks the price will fall further.

2. Someone needs cash / cashes out.

3. Someone wants the price to go down. Why?

4.

[F-bernanke]

I happen to like and appreciate getting ALL input possible, so I can then better make my own conclusions.

I'd much rather have 5 rpietila guys posting wrong analysis than the 5 noobs who focus on character bashing, and add no real value to the forum.

+1

[macsga]

Can someone explain to me what is happening right now?

Here are a few reasons I can think of myself:

1. Someone thinks the price will fall further.

2. Someone needs cash / cashes out.

3. Someone wants the price to go down. Why?

4.

A big player is dumping 1K of coins in order to cause fear and despair to shaky hands and get more later

[Voodah]

Huge botnet appeared and it is mining ALL the litecoins!

http://www.reddit.com/r/litecoin/comments/1tvlv0/are_scrypt_asic_units_out_in_the_wild_take_a_look/