Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[granathus]

When decising whether to sell or not - just calculate the probabilities. For example, if you give a probability for crash 20 % - then simply sell 20 % of BTC-holdings.
If you give a probability of 50 % for crash, then sell 50 % of your stash and by this way actively manage your BTC-holdings.
When you give a probability for rise 20 %, then buy with 20 % of your disposal cash.

By this way, you will be richer than the average BTC-holder. Risto is trading because he is beating the markets. This is why I rather follow him than anyone of you who just advice "hold hold hold no matter if it crashes tomorrow - just hold like an idiot".

No, if it crashes tomorrow with 100 % - I will sell 100 % of them right now - give me even one reason why I shouldn't do this?
I gave 90 % probability for drop and sold 90 % of my BTC-holdings and I will rebuy them with discounted prices. If I am not able to do that, I am still happy with the dollars that I made with BitCoins. Then I will leave the stage with a handful of cash and only 10 % on the initial BTC-holdings.

In any case, buying high and selling low is not advisable!

In my socialist country, tax deduction for losses actually outweigh profit on gains after tax. Therefore I always buy high and sell low.

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[alexeft]

When decising whether to sell or not - just calculate the probabilities. For example, if you give a probability for crash 20 % - then simply sell 20 % of BTC-holdings.
If you give a probability of 50 % for crash, then sell 50 % of your stash and by this way actively manage your BTC-holdings.
When you give a probability for rise 20 %, then buy with 20 % of your disposal cash.

By this way, you will be richer than the average BTC-holder. Risto is trading because he is beating the markets. This is why I rather follow him than anyone of you who just advice "hold hold hold no matter if it crashes tomorrow - just hold like an idiot".

No, if it crashes tomorrow with 100 % - I will sell 100 % of them right now - give me even one reason why I shouldn't do this?
I gave 90 % probability for drop and sold 90 % of my BTC-holdings and I will rebuy them with discounted prices. If I am not able to do that, I am still happy with the dollars that I made with BitCoins. Then I will leave the stage with a handful of cash and only 10 % on the initial BTC-holdings.

In any case, buying high and selling low is not advisable!

In my socialist country, tax deduction for losses actually outweigh profit on gains after tax. Therefore I always buy high and sell low.

Oooopsie!!! You got me there!!  
Which country might that be?

[granathus]

When decising whether to sell or not - just calculate the probabilities. For example, if you give a probability for crash 20 % - then simply sell 20 % of BTC-holdings.
If you give a probability of 50 % for crash, then sell 50 % of your stash and by this way actively manage your BTC-holdings.
When you give a probability for rise 20 %, then buy with 20 % of your disposal cash.

By this way, you will be richer than the average BTC-holder. Risto is trading because he is beating the markets. This is why I rather follow him than anyone of you who just advice "hold hold hold no matter if it crashes tomorrow - just hold like an idiot".

No, if it crashes tomorrow with 100 % - I will sell 100 % of them right now - give me even one reason why I shouldn't do this?
I gave 90 % probability for drop and sold 90 % of my BTC-holdings and I will rebuy them with discounted prices. If I am not able to do that, I am still happy with the dollars that I made with BitCoins. Then I will leave the stage with a handful of cash and only 10 % on the initial BTC-holdings.

In any case, buying high and selling low is not advisable!

In my socialist country, tax deduction for losses actually outweigh profit on gains after tax. Therefore I always buy high and sell low.

Oooopsie!!! You got me there!!  
Which country might that be?

Norway. And I might have been exaggerating just a tiny bit   

[Jomppe]

When decising whether to sell or not - just calculate the probabilities. For example, if you give a probability for crash 20 % - then simply sell 20 % of BTC-holdings.
If you give a probability of 50 % for crash, then sell 50 % of your stash and by this way actively manage your BTC-holdings.
When you give a probability for rise 20 %, then buy with 20 % of your disposal cash.

By this way, you will be richer than the average BTC-holder. Risto is trading because he is beating the markets. This is why I rather follow him than anyone of you who just advice "hold hold hold no matter if it crashes tomorrow - just hold like an idiot".

No, if it crashes tomorrow with 100 % - I will sell 100 % of them right now - give me even one reason why I shouldn't do this?
I gave 90 % probability for drop and sold 90 % of my BTC-holdings and I will rebuy them with discounted prices. If I am not able to do that, I am still happy with the dollars that I made with BitCoins. Then I will leave the stage with a handful of cash and only 10 % on the initial BTC-holdings.

In any case, buying high and selling low is not advisable!

+1

These coins I bought some of them sub 100 levels, the vast majority has been bought around 400-600 dollars. Now I am reading Rpietila's analysis and I have to admit I have "bought them". He is bearish and he has been usually right so it is probably smart to follow him.
I think even this price it is excellent time to sell - it is still far more than 300-400 USD.  

[oda.krell]

[...]

This is to refute oda.krell who does not base his predictions of "trends" on anything, I at least try. Nobody has shown any proof on any trend other than this, except lines drawn on a whim. I don't understand much, but there is a great difference between founded and unfounded prediction.

It is very easy to buy at your desired level btw. It is called "limit order".

Heeey, look what happens when you leave the forum for an hour or two... the clown brigade comes to town.

a) If you're interested in my methods, go read masterluc's thread. I post some more detail there. Sometimes sloppy, but at least you'd learn what I work with -- short term averages mainly, some volume and order book analysis, bit of EW theory though I remain skeptical about that one.

b) Your single biggest problem: false pride. Example: earlier this year, some simplistic back-of-the-napkin calculation convinced you we would see 300k USD coins within a year. You kept harping on about that magical number until the forum ridicule for this prediction even got through to you.

Now recently it looks like you learned the basic of linear regression. Good for you, everyone should learn a bit of math. But what do you do with that new tool? You set a new (more bearish) goal and you keep harping on that one without end.

Would you possess a minimum of capacity to self reflect, you would notice that a linear regression analysis of the entire price history is a useful tool maybe, but not somehow the magical wand or crystal ball to answer all your BTC trading questions.


Short version: I don't mind your analysis. I do mind the unjustified arrogance with which you present it usually.

[alexeft]

When decising whether to sell or not - just calculate the probabilities. For example, if you give a probability for crash 20 % - then simply sell 20 % of BTC-holdings.
If you give a probability of 50 % for crash, then sell 50 % of your stash and by this way actively manage your BTC-holdings.
When you give a probability for rise 20 %, then buy with 20 % of your disposal cash.

By this way, you will be richer than the average BTC-holder. Risto is trading because he is beating the markets. This is why I rather follow him than anyone of you who just advice "hold hold hold no matter if it crashes tomorrow - just hold like an idiot".

No, if it crashes tomorrow with 100 % - I will sell 100 % of them right now - give me even one reason why I shouldn't do this?
I gave 90 % probability for drop and sold 90 % of my BTC-holdings and I will rebuy them with discounted prices. If I am not able to do that, I am still happy with the dollars that I made with BitCoins. Then I will leave the stage with a handful of cash and only 10 % on the initial BTC-holdings.

In any case, buying high and selling low is not advisable!

In my socialist country, tax deduction for losses actually outweigh profit on gains after tax. Therefore I always buy high and sell low.

Oooopsie!!! You got me there!!  
Which country might that be?

Norway. And I might have been exaggerating just a tiny bit   

 

[rpietila]

disclaimer: i sold a lot

Sold a little (BTC400) during the last 3 days (so far).

and you keep harping on that one without end.

Even if that were the case, it does not compel you to post solely to state the fact. It is called obsession, and is unfitting for longer time members such as you, and makes everyone here think you are gay.

[MAbtc]

Short version: I don't mind your analysis. I do mind the unjustified arrogance with which you present it usually.

I don't understand. It seems to me, as of late, that rpietila has presented his predictions as a matter of probability, and believes he is making EV+ moves with a decent chance of being wrong. I don't see this as "unjustified arrogance" at all.

[granathus]

Big egoes clashing. Such impressive!

[gandhibt]

disclaimer: i sold a lot

Sold a little (BTC400) during the last 3 days (so far).

and you keep harping on that one without end.

Even if that were the case, it does not compel you to post solely to state the fact. It is called obsession, and is unfitting for longer time members such as you, and makes everyone here think you are gay.

so you're homophobic too?

[Parazyd]

One piece of advice: Don't follow anyone

[YoYa]

disclaimer: i sold a lot

Sold a little (BTC400) during the last 3 days (so far).

and you keep harping on that one without end.

Even if that were the case, it does not compel you to post solely to state the fact. It is called obsession, and is unfitting for longer time members such as you, and makes everyone here think you are gay.

so you're homophobic too?

NoHomoCoin is born!

And if you really want to show you're not gay, you'd better buy some quick!

[hdbuck]

One piece of advide: Don't follow anyone

+1

its warrrrr  

edit @Parazyd i did the exact opposite when u told me to buy 2 days ago at around 800$...  

[oda.krell]

Even if that were the case, it does not compel you to post solely to state the fact. It is called obsession, and is unfitting for longer time members such as you, and makes everyone here think you are gay.

Yeah. That's a new low. Even for you Good job.

[gandhibt]

what would cause that stamp and gox are somewhat closer together %-wise vs what they were before this down move?

[Jomppe]

disclaimer: i sold a lot

Sold a little (BTC400) during the last 3 days (so far).

and you keep harping on that one without end.

Even if that were the case, it does not compel you to post solely to state the fact. It is called obsession, and is unfitting for longer time members such as you, and makes everyone here think you are gay.

so you're homophobic too?

NoHomoCoin is born!

And if you really want to show you're not gay, you'd better buy some quick!

You are the real flipflop from YouTube community?  

[YoYa]

disclaimer: i sold a lot

Sold a little (BTC400) during the last 3 days (so far).

and you keep harping on that one without end.

Even if that were the case, it does not compel you to post solely to state the fact. It is called obsession, and is unfitting for longer time members such as you, and makes everyone here think you are gay.

so you're homophobic too?

NoHomoCoin is born!

And if you really want to show you're not gay, you'd better buy some quick!

You are the real flipflop from YouTube community?  

Do elaborate....

[Parazyd]

One piece of advide: Don't follow anyone

+1

its warrrrr  

edit @Parazyd i did the exact opposite when u told me to buy 2 days ago at around 240$ on stamp...  

I'm not following, are you saying that you istened to me or you didn't listen to me?

Don't listen to me I'm usually not quite sober

[Jomppe]

disclaimer: i sold a lot

Sold a little (BTC400) during the last 3 days (so far).

and you keep harping on that one without end.

Even if that were the case, it does not compel you to post solely to state the fact. It is called obsession, and is unfitting for longer time members such as you, and makes everyone here think you are gay.

so you're homophobic too?

NoHomoCoin is born!

And if you really want to show you're not gay, you'd better buy some quick!

You are the real flipflop from YouTube community?  

Do elaborate....

Today silver is a great buy and tomorrow it is a horrible buy.
I do not remember the name, but I think it was something "raw...."?

[rpietila]

what would cause that stamp and gox are somewhat closer together %-wise vs what they were before this down move?

I don't know but currently selling in stamp, because it gives better relative value...