Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[sir faps]

;TLDR Not being in Bitcoin today is too risky.

This is what I also believed before jumping in to be a full time market analyst. But with decent excel skills it is possible to model many situations where it makes sense to have less than 100% in bitcoins, or trade.

I have so many lines of data and charts, for example I have analysed the bottoms of the recent crashes to 5 minute precision in all of the exchanges to find out where I get the coins cheapest and in largest quantity, and how quickly it falls, how quickly it bounces back, what volume is reasonable to expect, so what size of orders are best to use. From next week I have a new half-time assistant doing mainly the analysis of exchange behavior, so that the capturing of tops and bottoms should happen with even greater precision.

Why I mentioned limit orders is that unless you have 24/7 trading (which I don't know if anyone has), it is reasonable to have quite a lot of fiat parked in the range 20-50% below the current price. The crashes are so deep and in a sense so predictable (not possible to know when they will happen, but play out quite the same every time) that the exact placement of orders can net you BTC10s easily. For example the Silk Road crash was an actual opportunity to buy at $90 in October. Yes, December-November-October. So many things happen in Bitcoin which cannot be predicted but can be captured with limit orders. Not being in Bitcoin is risky, but cutting your # of coins in half by insisting to buy now is not too smart either.

It is a shame that only stupid people tend to reply to my analysis, you know the ones who only want to know if the market will go up this afternoon (which in fact is the thing I could influence the most, thus nullifying the actual predicting) and cannot comprehend an advanced prediction such as "with 70% certainty we visit $450 before hitting $1,100 which makes it a wildly profitable +32% EV play after fees".

I am sorry if any person in any standing whatsoever has been offended because of my hard speech towards the trolls who don't know how to behave respectfully.

Besides there are some strawmen arguments that I have been wrong with market calls. There is one that I remember (quitting yelling "crash" when we had climbed to the top) but every other call since the start of the October bull market has been correct afaik. If you want to say that I was wrong, please post the wrong call in context and explain why it was wrong. Or refrain from lying.

I try to avoid online warzones so I'm not commenting on that, but I must add that I have highly enjoyed your analysis and hope you continue forward regardless of peoples reactions. I think you deserve kudos for predicting the drop to the 400s before we had even hit $1250. Your trendline is also in sync with a number of other people's trendline predictions I've seen on this forum and around the net. As far back as August a couple others had targeted $1000 for May-June 2014 with a possible bubble in between. I don't care about day to day up or down movement, the real action is in the big moves mid/long term. No one is being forced to follow what you are posting, I've been impressed by your analysis thus far. =)

+1

I read rpietila's analysis on why we would see low 400s, bought when it hit that price target, and have been very happy since.

Thank you rpietila for helping me get coins at the right price. Don't listen to the kooks, keep doing what you're doing

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[DaSheep]

Smells like beartrap...
Orderbook looked pretty legit


Do it again on a weekday when second market is working and I might be impressed.

[adamstgBit]

bids are getting pumped up.

[pdawg]

Current uptrend tested but still in tact:



.....the larger fib resistance proving to be tough to get through.

[N12]

Damn right, love the quote.

Lets stop enslavement, consumerism and hang the banksters!

Meanwhile, us Bitcoiners are licking the boots of fund managers, billionaires and Goldman Sachs.

It is quite ironic.

It's not. It does not matter who uses Bitcoin. The point is that it is the same rules for everyone.

Are you really sure this will forever remain? I admire your optimism that exchanges, pools, developers, community cannot be co-opted.

[hyphymikey]

I had a feeling Loaded might go to China with bags of money only to find a few traders and a lot of fake trading.

China is keeping the price high while whales cash out and/or negotiate with people like Loaded.

[CryptStorm]

This is just how I see it.  I could and I probably am wrong, but this is what I have in my mind, for the short term future.

Agreed.  We are about to move back down.  I expect a new low.

lol, new low is correct. but rather a new low of your btc holdings.

(those of you who did sell above 900  )

Short term trade. Target 750(btce) 800(mtgox) and get out. > 25% move if you got in correctly.

I trade litecoin, so I may end up getting >40%

Whats your target on the downside?

Well this is from the 10th of December.  I didn't post a target, but below 550 was what I was insinuating.  Anything below 500 was stealing.

On this recent move up, I don't expect 950(gox) 900(btce).  That would change things.  If we start slowing around 700-800 and stop, I expect < 400. And this is where some serious buying pressure should come in.  < 200 would be very unexpected.

UPDATE



***Chart and price targets are GOX***

I think red and blue moves still hold as of right now.  Blue is obviously more bearish.  Yellow is possible, but not as likely.  

I still feel we are headed back below 500 again.  I feel it is a very important level, and I currently still see a break down through to < 400.

EDIT - I have a full time job so I wasn't able to do as well as I would have liked.  I made 34.5% return on this last move starting 12-18-13 ending 12-27-13.  I made multiple trades throughout this timeframe.

I would like an update from CryptStorm:

big chart thing here

This is just how I see it.  I could and I probably am wrong, but this is what I have in my mind, for the short term future.

Agreed.  We are about to move back down.  I expect a new low.

lol, new low is correct. but rather a new low of your btc holdings.

(those of you who did sell above 900  )

Short term trade. Target 750(btce) 800(mtgox) and get out. > 25% move if you got in correctly.

I trade litecoin, so I may end up getting >40%

Whats your target on the downside?

I'm in complete agreement (it's as though I'm learning) -- I'm in at 490 (a bit better than 40% return already), so feeling good, hoping for 800 (830?)
Downside, probably below 400. You?

Edit: I just saw the continued dialogue above-- pays to read, I 'spose. :-) ("stealing" he says, hehehehe)

490 is very nice, which exchange though?

gox

You definitely know what you're doing. 830? Possible if you do not require sleep and you're addicted to stress lol.  I always like 4 below the big #.  I'd say 796 and sleep easy.

Hey guys,
Well, after the couple of early bounces up to the 750 range, I got a bit concerned we weren't going to bounce to 830 (I wasn't going to wait for this super-thin 'suckers' rally, no offense intended), so I pulled the trigger and closed all long positions at 749. I'm happily sitting full fiat and waiting for the inevitable, IMO, touchdown to consolidation levels (even if at flash speed) to below 500ish. I've set my passive orders and am very happy-- I haven't tried to make any further trades in this weather! (Gotta say, because the infrastructure is so crazy, the passive (limit) orders really are much easier way to make money, IMO)

Cheers

EDIT: Today is my birthday, so if it dropped to 300, that would be a really nice gift. If it takes until end of spring, that's ok, too.

[seleme]

Nah ... looks more like the end of a bull trap to me, and a pretty predictable one at that

New lows in the  next 2 weeks IMO and months before we see $1000 again

Maybe then people will stop using this childish 'HODLING' word after they get a good SPANKING

Current uptrend tested but still in tact:

.....the larger fib resistance proving to be tough to get through.

Jees, it's been about 5 minutes ... that hardly qualifies as 'tough'

There will be at least one more bull trap before January 31st when Chinese have to withdraw fiat from their exchanges.

[samson]

Nah ... looks more like the end of a bull trap to me, and a pretty predictable one at that

New lows in the  next 2 weeks IMO and months before we see $1000 again

Maybe then people will stop using this childish 'HODLING' word after they get a good SPANKING

Current uptrend tested but still in tact:

.....the larger fib resistance proving to be tough to get through.

Jees, it's been about 5 minutes ... that hardly qualifies as 'tough'

There will be at least one more bull trap before January 31st when Chinese have to withdraw fiat from their exchanges.

LOL

[wachtwoord]

Nah ... looks more like the end of a bull trap to me, and a pretty predictable one at that

New lows in the  next 2 weeks IMO and months before we see $1000 again

Maybe then people will stop using this childish 'HODLING' word after they get a good SPANKING

Current uptrend tested but still in tact:

.....the larger fib resistance proving to be tough to get through.

Jees, it's been about 5 minutes ... that hardly qualifies as 'tough'

There will be at least one more bull trap before January 31st when Chinese have to withdraw fiat from their exchanges.

I'll repeat this. After January 31st Chinese can withdraw. Just not fiat. So, just like on MtGox: Buy BTC and withdraw those.

Now your homework exerice: Will this provide (short term) momentum up or down for Bitcoin prices?

[ChartBuddy]

[BitChick]

Nah ... looks more like the end of a bull trap to me, and a pretty predictable one at that

New lows in the  next 2 weeks IMO and months before we see $1000 again

Maybe then people will stop using this childish 'HODLING' word after they get a good SPANKING

Current uptrend tested but still in tact:

.....the larger fib resistance proving to be tough to get through.

Jees, it's been about 5 minutes ... that hardly qualifies as 'tough'

There will be at least one more bull trap before January 31st when Chinese have to withdraw fiat from their exchanges.

I'll repeat this. After January 31st Chinese can withdraw. Just not fiat. So, just like on MtGox: Buy BTC and withdraw those.

Now your homework exerice: Will this provide (short term) momentum up or down for Bitcoin prices?

Alot can happen in the BTC in one month.

Perhaps China will "change their minds" after some regulation comes into play.

If that does not happen, news of more large companies like Overstock.com accepting BTC will bump the price.

These are just a couple of things.

The January 31st deadline is something to think about but it is no guarantee that the price will drop.

[wachtwoord]

Nah ... looks more like the end of a bull trap to me, and a pretty predictable one at that

New lows in the  next 2 weeks IMO and months before we see $1000 again

Maybe then people will stop using this childish 'HODLING' word after they get a good SPANKING

Current uptrend tested but still in tact:

.....the larger fib resistance proving to be tough to get through.

Jees, it's been about 5 minutes ... that hardly qualifies as 'tough'

There will be at least one more bull trap before January 31st when Chinese have to withdraw fiat from their exchanges.

I'll repeat this. After January 31st Chinese can withdraw. Just not fiat. So, just like on MtGox: Buy BTC and withdraw those.

Now your homework exerice: Will this provide (short term) momentum up or down for Bitcoin prices?

Alot can happen in the BTC in one month.

Perhaps China will "change their minds" after some regulation comes into play.

If that does not happen, news of more large companies like Overstock.com accepting BTC will bump the price.

These are just a couple of things.

The January 31st deadline is something to think about but it is no guarantee that the price will drop.

Okay I'll give you the answer.

I was implying this would inflate prices

[lebing]

Gox tried to dump and the other exchanges just went:

[gandhibt]

Nah ... looks more like the end of a bull trap to me, and a pretty predictable one at that

New lows in the  next 2 weeks IMO and months before we see $1000 again

Maybe then people will stop using this childish 'HODLING' word after they get a good SPANKING

Current uptrend tested but still in tact:

.....the larger fib resistance proving to be tough to get through.

Jees, it's been about 5 minutes ... that hardly qualifies as 'tough'

There will be at least one more bull trap before January 31st when Chinese have to withdraw fiat from their exchanges.

I'll repeat this. After January 31st Chinese can withdraw. Just not fiat. So, just like on MtGox: Buy BTC and withdraw those.

Now your homework exerice: Will this provide (short term) momentum up or down for Bitcoin prices?

Alot can happen in the BTC in one month.

Perhaps China will "change their minds" after some regulation comes into play.

If that does not happen, news of more large companies like Overstock.com accepting BTC will bump the price.

These are just a couple of things.

The January 31st deadline is something to think about but it is no guarantee that the price will drop.

the correct answer to wws question is up...

btw. i sold major portion, im now 80/20 (usd/btc)

[pdawg]

Jees, it's been about 5 minutes ... that hardly qualifies as 'tough'

Not sure what you're looking at it's been attacking that zone since the 20th.

[prof7bit]

The January 31st deadline

What is on January 31st? What deadline?

[adamstgBit]

GIFS ARE WORKING!

[macsga]

For a bit MOAR than $5K/BTC I might be at the next seat of yours...

[CryptStorm]

The January 31st deadline

What is on January 31st? What deadline?

The day that BTCChina disallows fiat withdrawals, I believe. Cheers