Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[mmitech]

If this consolidation continues for another week until Jan. 6th, bears are going to be treading on REALLY thin ice, imo.

Depends on the timeframe. Personally I expect the final capitulation in Feb +/- 1 month, so one week does not matter much. Perhaps there should be a different thread for people who trade on daily, weekly and monthly timeframe. Or less slander. If March passes without hitting $400, then the chances of seeing it again are slim.

Well my premise is this one. A lot of new fiat will be hitting the exchanges in January. People want to get in NOW given what happened between Jan to Dec of 2013. Especially if the slow trend up continues.

My timeframe is longer. Bitcoin has been around for 5 years, and it has always been a terrific enlightenment for those who have been ripe for it. The knowledge about bitcoin has grown exponentially and investment into it has grown exponentially. I expect this to continue and every year be on average 12 times more glorious (as it has been), until everybody uses bitcoin (which will happen in 2016-17 at this rate). Everything that has happened since 2009 is captured by the trend and its variations, and will be.

There has been some regularities in the growth that I have researched, some of it is published, some not. I believe knowing them gives an edge in trading, and so far it has proven to be good. I have several million dollars of my own money that I could use to purchase bitcoins but choose not to. Not at this price. I am taking a large, calculated risk, with entry points set according to mathematical model for the rest of the year. I even gave the average sell price a few posts ago. Now there is no need to comment that I am doing bad every time the price rises $10. You could as well post about how good I am doing for the reason that I always have more bitcoins than fiat anyway 

So, after smoking the best the world has to offer, I again feel that taking a break from this thread is in order.

See you at $500. And don't fall in the bull trap

RP what I don't get is if you truly truly believe your log charts of 12x growth every year then why even trade? You are risking tens of millions of dollars in order to make a few more tens of millions. Isn't there something more worthwhile of your time. Like maybe starting a foundation or something?

Because his ego needs feeding. A little humility would suit him.

I am not sure it is pride.  He is indeed a multi millionaire.  Most of us here, myself included are not.  He is in a position to use his wealth and BTC holdings to make more profits.  Is it prideful for him to make comments about what he is doing with his wealth and some of his strategies and what has worked for him?  I think many here are just envious.  I think the humble person will think that perhaps in a year or two, if BTC continues the growth that we are on, could be in a situation in which we have great wealth too.  We could come on the boards and share what knowledge we have gained and the "cigars" we are enjoying and everyone will rise up against us too.  Perhaps staying quiet and being more subtle, like Loaded or a few other big holders, is wise in that there is less angst against them, but Risto is just sharing his knowlege and experience and even his success with us and I personally really appreciate it.

OMG did you say sharing his knowledge ? you are kidding right ? the only knowledge he has regarding Bitcoin trading is how many Bitcoins he has.... all his calls were false the one he've got right were pure luck, it is like someone talking everyday for one month, what are the chances that he will be right? ah got it ? now don't tell me his long term calls were right! well wow guess what, no matter when you bought Bitcoin the last 5 years it turned out to be a hell of investment, you do not need any one to tell you that.

and yes I am so annoyed because each time he fuck up, he has to brag about his wealth instead of saying "oops I was wrong" this is ego not pride, and you know who does that people with weak personalities.

again, his only advantage is being an early adopter, and BTW when he knew about Bitcoin he might spent few thousands or ten of thousands USD, allot of people invested a kind of money that he never saw in his life before investing into Bitcoin and I am sure about it beacuse his kind is called "the new to money", he doesn't own money but money owns him

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[Salivan]

I've been reading here a bit and try to follow rpietila since I think he is one of few here that really has the experience and the balls to follow his knowledge. Fwiw I think he's putting to much weight in the logarithmic trend line. I'm not sure if he is basing his bear call on other technicals but if he isn't I think it's a mistake. As of right now I'd say technicals are looking much better then they were before the dip bellow $500. I don't know why I'm posting this. Guess I want to give rpietila some support for his skills but at the same time spank him a bit if he's making this bear call only on the basis of the log trend line.

Discuss.

I have questioned his predictions and found that he has been right most of the time.  I too wonder if there will come a point when the growth will stray from the trend line and never bounce down to the level he expects?  He is in a great position though.  He can just keep the fiat and move on if those lower prices are never reached again.  Some of us, with way less BTC holdings do not necessarily want to risk our BTC holdings for that kind of game though.  To be left with more fiat then BTC when we are trying to get more BTC could be a problem for some of us I believe.  When it gets to the point that we are thinking about cashing out of BTC anyways, that is when it will be wise to play the market a little more.  Just my thoughts.

+1

[mmitech]

I've been reading here a bit and try to follow rpietila since I think he is one of few here that really has the experience and the balls to follow his knowledge. Fwiw I think he's putting to much weight in the logarithmic trend line. I'm not sure if he is basing his bear call on other technicals but if he isn't I think it's a mistake. As of right now I'd say technicals are looking much better then they were before the dip bellow $500. I don't know why I'm posting this. Guess I want to give rpietila some support for his skills but at the same time spank him a bit if he's making this bear call only on the basis of the log trend line.

Discuss.

I've said something very similar yesterday, and before that as well (okay, I said it with more snark, but that's because I prefer to act dickish myself when corresponding with people that act dickish).

A log trend line (more precisely: linear regression on log charted price history) is a nice little tool to get a feeling for where we are at any point in time compared to the historic trend, and where we're going to be, very very roughly, in a few months or a year from now.

It is very much not a method to conclude that, right now, we have to go down another 33% to match the trendline, or that price has to rise by 2.575% to fulfill our yearly growth quota.

Add to that the bragging and the unjustified arrogance, together with a big dollop of exaggeration ("several millions"), and I'm suddenly much less forgiving towards his TA failures than I am with anyone else's.

+1

[adamstgBit]

lol

800

ah shit

I know, hey, Adam!  We're both uberbulls but it looks like we sodled when we should have hodled!

You're gonna have a bad time!

Just 10% of my coins, so no real worries.  

i sodl like 30%
about 2 months ago...
and some more a few weeks ago
made alot of money, so no regrets... (        )

[justusranvier]

A log trend line (more precisely: linear regression on log charted price history) is a nice little tool to get a feeling for where we are at any point in time compared to the historic trend, and where we're going to be, very very roughly, in a few months or a year from now.

I don't think Bitcoin's long term trendline is going to be straight on a log graph - I think it's going to trace an S curve graphed in log space.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igDailyzczsg2011-11-01zeg2013-12-30ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl

Throw away the data from before November '11, while the exchanges were trying to figure out how to operate, and what do you see?

[oda.krell]

Back to the (supposed) topic?

Is 800 suddenly point of resistance now (on mtgox)? That could put a damper on this lil' trend of ours, no?

[Dragonkiller]

If this consolidation continues for another week until Jan. 6th, bears are going to be treading on REALLY thin ice, imo.

Depends on the timeframe. Personally I expect the final capitulation in Feb +/- 1 month, so one week does not matter much. Perhaps there should be a different thread for people who trade on daily, weekly and monthly timeframe. Or less slander. If March passes without hitting $400, then the chances of seeing it again are slim.

Well my premise is this one. A lot of new fiat will be hitting the exchanges in January. People want to get in NOW given what happened between Jan to Dec of 2013. Especially if the slow trend up continues.

My timeframe is longer. Bitcoin has been around for 5 years, and it has always been a terrific enlightenment for those who have been ripe for it. The knowledge about bitcoin has grown exponentially and investment into it has grown exponentially. I expect this to continue and every year be on average 12 times more glorious (as it has been), until everybody uses bitcoin (which will happen in 2016-17 at this rate). Everything that has happened since 2009 is captured by the trend and its variations, and will be.

There has been some regularities in the growth that I have researched, some of it is published, some not. I believe knowing them gives an edge in trading, and so far it has proven to be good. I have several million dollars of my own money that I could use to purchase bitcoins but choose not to. Not at this price. I am taking a large, calculated risk, with entry points set according to mathematical model for the rest of the year. I even gave the average sell price a few posts ago. Now there is no need to comment that I am doing bad every time the price rises $10. You could as well post about how good I am doing for the reason that I always have more bitcoins than fiat anyway  

So, after smoking the best the world has to offer, I again feel that taking a break from this thread is in order.

See you at $500. And don't fall in the bull trap

RP what I don't get is if you truly truly believe your log charts of 12x growth every year then why even trade? You are risking tens of millions of dollars in order to make a few more tens of millions. Isn't there something more worthwhile of your time. Like maybe starting a foundation or something?

i am interested in this too

[samson]

again, his only advantage is being an early adopter

He wasn't an early adopter.

[oda.krell]

A log trend line (more precisely: linear regression on log charted price history) is a nice little tool to get a feeling for where we are at any point in time compared to the historic trend, and where we're going to be, very very roughly, in a few months or a year from now.

I don't think Bitcoin's long term trendline is going to be straight on a log graph - I think it's going to trace an S curve graphed in log space.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igDailyzczsg2011-11-01zeg2013-12-30ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl

Throw away the data from before November '11, while the exchanges were trying to figure out how to operate, and what do you see?

I know, I know I participated in the previous discussion of that idea. Didn't we conclude that the well known S shaped "tech adoption" curve would still be a straight line when mapped to log. Why does BTC deserve a "super S", if I may ask?

[justusranvier]

[I know, I know I participated in the previous discussion of that idea. Didn't we conclude that the well known S shaped "tech adoption" curve would still be a straight line when mapped to log. Why does BTC deserve a "super S", if I may ask?

Maybe Bitcoin "true" adoption curve is straight on a log scale (until the inflection point).

The long term trend line of USD purchasing power is exponentially decreasing.

What happens when you graph the value of an exponentially-increasing currency in terms of units which are exponentially decreasing at the same time?

[Erdogan]

A log trend line (more precisely: linear regression on log charted price history) is a nice little tool to get a feeling for where we are at any point in time compared to the historic trend, and where we're going to be, very very roughly, in a few months or a year from now.

I don't think Bitcoin's long term trendline is going to be straight on a log graph - I think it's going to trace an S curve graphed in log space.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igDailyzczsg2011-11-01zeg2013-12-30ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl

Throw away the data from before November '11, while the exchanges were trying to figure out how to operate, and what do you see?

I know, I know I participated in the previous discussion of that idea. Didn't we conclude that the well known S shaped "tech adoption" curve would still be a straight line when mapped to log. Why does BTC deserve a "super S", if I may ask?

I don't exactly know what super S means, but anyway, bitcoin adoption is both about the network effect, or each user spawns 2 new users after a unit of time, plus the fact that each user seeks to expand his bitcoin hoard as he understands or gains trust in bitcoin as a store of value. In serious questions like this, understanding and logic is not enough, your feelings and intuision have to be on board also. Hence, the price function could increase at a higher rate than number of users. Impossible to be certain, also after the fact.

[Ducky1]

again, his only advantage is being an early adopter

He wasn't an early adopter.

Some may claim that those buying their first mBTC now are still early adopters.

[oda.krell]

[I know, I know I participated in the previous discussion of that idea. Didn't we conclude that the well known S shaped "tech adoption" curve would still be a straight line when mapped to log. Why does BTC deserve a "super S", if I may ask?

Maybe Bitcoin "true" adoption curve is straight on a log scale (until the inflection point).

The long term trend line of USD purchasing power is exponentially decreasing.

What happens when you graph the value of an exponentially-increasing currency in terms of units which are exponentially decreasing at the same time?

Errrm, nothing? Not super exponential growth at least, if that's what you mean.

And I honestly don't know what function would even look S like when mapped to log.


EDIT: but let me make one thing clear: I don't buy the idea that a single log trendline governs BTC price now and forever either. The whole idea is a very very crude approximation, at best.

[Davyd05]

I think right now were seeing the tops that a couple people probably called for themselves cause there has been a fair bit of selling followed with the reaches past 800...assuming triggers and orders are being met in order of first placed.

I can't see us dropping without bad news, and I hope by now people don't over react to news strictly put out to cause panic.

[Ivanhoe]

Rpietila Observer - tracking & discussion

[justusranvier]

Errrm, nothing? Not super exponential growth at least, if that's what you mean.

And I honestly don't know what function would even look S like when mapped to log.

A constant purchasing power line would look exponential when graphed in USD terms.

If Bitcoin is increasing in exponential purchasing power terms, then the graph of Bitcoin compared to the USD should be "double" exponential.

We're looking at a composition of two functions, not a single standard function.

[Ducky1]

And I honestly don't know what function would even look S like when mapped to log.

e^(1/(1+e^-x)) maybe

[ChartBuddy]

[Erdogan]

And I honestly don't know what function would even look S like when mapped to log.

e^(1/(1+e^-x)) maybe

Hey - you forgot the velocity of money...

[justusranvier]

f(h)=e^h
h(x)=e^x

f(x)=e^ex

That's a double exponential instead of a double-log S curve, but the same transformation applies there too.