Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rpietila]

Is this investment club open to new members? Sign message I control 10kBTC to join?

You can buy shares to join. We have about 70 members & higher.

Member is about BTC1.5,
Partner BTC15,
Senior Partner BTC50,
in addition the other property that the club controls such as the clubroom and 25% of Silvervault.

[N12]

late November, when I was the sole dissident in the crowd of all bulls

Totally, can't seem to recall anyone warning of another 2011 back then while being laughed at. Or anyone who bought into the suicide hotline while others were busy panicking. Hmm. Weird.

Being a contrarian is certainly one of the better plays, but keep in mind that a trend can stay intact for quite a while even though most everyone is bullish/bearish. It is just the extreme points of sentiment that are really high danger. Even with this in mind, it's always likely the trend extends further than you think. As an example … on the way up to 900, the sentiment was already completely insane with that congress hearing. I don't think it is possible to consistently catch the very last wave (I certainly haven't seen anyone who is able to do it) nor do I think it's adviseable to try because the risk becomes disproportionate to the reward.

I do find it ironic that our hotshot investment club supernode king of the crypto Risto got caught in the euphoria at the very end of the bubble.

[rpietila]

I do find it ironic that our hotshot investment club supernode king of the crypto Risto got caught in the euphoria at the very end of the bubble.

Euphoria is a wrong word, since I bought back only about 20% of what I had sold in 19-20.11. (and sold them again at 924 after downtrend was confirmed to me after the first big drop). But nevertheless, it was a good lesson on being right and sitting tight, because both are essential. The results were OK but the zen was not there Now after receiving this lesson, I have no problem being partly fiat even until March, no matter where the price goes meanwhile. In March I will need to start adjusting my bids upwards by 0.7% per day.

[N12]

Can I pay the investment club fee in XAG?

[rpietila]

There is no fee. We have a company with 628 shares, and the company directly owns certain stuff, such as 1 bitcoin per share. Then it indirectly owns stuff. People own shares, and may buy and sell them. You can offer anything in exchange for a certain number of shares and have it posted to our mailing list. I have traded them vs. silver in the past that is nothing "funny", after all the name is Hopeapankki Holding Oy and silver was the main investment before bitcoin.

[N12]

It's you who is funny. You are a great entertainer and I'm glad you're sticking around.

edit: In seriousness though, congrats on managing to break through whatever triggered your 300k delusion back in the day. I honestly think you're pretty rational these days.

[OldGeek]

Pardon me for interrupting, but I want to publicly thank you both for your contributions to my bitcoin education.

Now, then, one of you sell and the other buy.  This flat-lined market gives me the jitters.

edit:  Hey, it worked.  A spike.  Small but defo better than the last few hours.

[rpietila]

edit: In seriousness though, congrats on managing to break through whatever triggered your 300k delusion back in the day.

Which one of us is being fooled now?   No matter what I say, there is a great crowd of followers big and small. Of course I benefit from being a public figure, but what exactly do you gain from trying to "expose" me with screencaps taken from our very own commercial?  

[windjc]

edit: In seriousness though, congrats on managing to break through whatever triggered your 300k delusion back in the day.

Which one of us is being fooled now?   No matter what I say, there is a great crowd of followers big and small. Of course I benefit from being a public figure, but what exactly do you gain from trying to "expose" me with screencaps taken from our very own commercial?  

I don't think there is a great crowd of anybody(s) following you anywhere. In your mind maybe.

I enjoy your commentary, but don't particularly hold it over several others opinions on this forum.

For instance, one thing that baffles the hell out of me on this "trading" forum is that the majority of us believe BTC will be worth 5 or 6 figures one day. So we only trade to acquire more bitcoin.

Meanwhile, its about 10000 times easier to acquire more bitcoin by trading alt coins. In fact, dozens of people invested $130 or less in Nxt a few months ago and now own the equivalent of 6000 BTC.

That is an extreme example, but there are dozens of more.

I am acquiring more bitcoin by buying and selling, but I am acquiring a crap ton more by acquiring new coins and selling them. I mean its almost impossibly not to increase your wealth that way and its ridiculously less time consuming and stressful than btc trading.

So if the smartest person is the one acquiring the most relative increase of btc, then the smartest person isn't just watching the btc market.

[justusranvier]

In fact, dozens of people invested $130 or less in Nxt a few months ago and now own the equivalent of 6000 BTC.

I have a hard time believing that it's actually possible for a dozen people to all cash out a total of 72000 BTC from that market.

[windjc]

In fact, dozens of people invested $130 or less in Nxt a few months ago and now own the equivalent of 6000 BTC.

I have a hard time believing that it's actually possible for a dozen people to all cash out a total of 72000 BTC from that market.

I know that 2 of them have already have. Dozens of others have cashed out a %. And the others havent started yet. There were around 71 initial investors.

[oda.krell]

I view it as improbable that this bubble will challenge its ATH anytime soon. I think it is probable that we will have several more months of either downtrend or consolidation. IF we go to ~100 billion market cap anytime soon, I would view a multi year bear market as the most probable option. My views are based on past Bitcoin history (charts), sentiment and my understanding of this world. I may be wrong, but my motive is capital preservation while still allowing my to enjoy Bitcoin's growth, as I have done in the past.

Spot on, in my opinion (except for "multi year" anything). I see one major difference between previous "growth spurts" (to take over the term by wachtwoord) - the increase of total valuation from 10B USD to 100B USD is more than just another increase by factor 10. It's the difference between "too small to be of significance for big players" (be it banks, funds or states), and "big enough to matter".

I still think the bear market will be more consolidation than bear, and won't last much longer than early next year, but 2014 will probably find ways of challenging our optimism. Doesn't matter whether it's a less enthusiastic market, government interference or another stumbling block.

All that said, another ath will probably be reached. I don't see this market capable of a year long stagnation. If anything, we're getting faster, both in the run ups to peaks (aths and intermediate peaks)  and in their corrections.

[Peter R]

edit: In seriousness though, congrats on managing to break through whatever triggered your 300k delusion back in the day.

Which one of us is being fooled now?   No matter what I say, there is a great crowd of followers big and small. Of course I benefit from being a public figure, but what exactly do you gain from trying to "expose" me with screencaps taken from our very own commercial?  

I don't think there is a great crowd of anybody(s) following you anywhere. In your mind maybe.

You might be surprised.  Bitcointalk.org is ranked #1426 by Alexa in the USA and #952 in Canada, for unique vistors per day.  

Quickly calculating the ratio of "views / posts" over a random sampling of forum threads suggests a 40 : 1 lurker-to-poster ratio.  There are at least 50 posters here that follow Risto's posts.  Multiplying that by the lurker-multiplier factor of 40, suggests that approximately 2,000 individuals across the globe are paying attention to what he says.  

Even the MSM picked up his thread about wealth distribution in bitcoin (and unfortunately reported his estimates as facts). 

[windjc]

edit: In seriousness though, congrats on managing to break through whatever triggered your 300k delusion back in the day.

Which one of us is being fooled now?   No matter what I say, there is a great crowd of followers big and small. Of course I benefit from being a public figure, but what exactly do you gain from trying to "expose" me with screencaps taken from our very own commercial?  

I don't think there is a great crowd of anybody(s) following you anywhere. In your mind maybe.

You might be surprised.  Bitcointalk.org is ranked #1426 by Alexa in the USA and #952 in Canada, for unique vistors per day.  

Quickly calculating the ratio of "views / posts" over a random sampling of forum threads suggests a 40 : 1 lurker-to-poster ratio.  There are at least 50 posters here that follow Risto's posts.  Multiplying that by the lurker-multiplier factor of 40, suggests that approximately 2,000 individuals across the globe are paying attention to what he says.  

WTF are you talking about? Please list the 50 posters here that "follow" Risto's posts. If there are 50 people on here who trade based solely on what ANY poster says then there are 50 STUPID people on here. And if that crazy calculation you just pulled out of your ass based on Alexa, probably the MOST inaccurate web traffic tool on the internet, is actually true, then there are at least 2000 STUPID people reading these posts.

Which, now that I think about it is probably true.

But there is not a lot of money following Risto or anyone else (maybe MasterLuc). Because people with a lot of money are smart enough not to "follow" anybody's particular posts.

[Kramerc]

edit: In seriousness though, congrats on managing to break through whatever triggered your 300k delusion back in the day.

Which one of us is being fooled now?   No matter what I say, there is a great crowd of followers big and small. Of course I benefit from being a public figure, but what exactly do you gain from trying to "expose" me with screencaps taken from our very own commercial?  

I don't think there is a great crowd of anybody(s) following you anywhere. In your mind maybe.

You might be surprised.  Bitcointalk.org is ranked #1426 by Alexa in the USA and #952 in Canada, for unique vistors per day.  

Quickly calculating the ratio of "views / posts" over a random sampling of forum threads suggests a 40 : 1 lurker-to-poster ratio.  There are at least 50 posters here that follow Risto's posts.  Multiplying that by the lurker-multiplier factor of 40, suggests that approximately 2,000 individuals across the globe are paying attention to what he says.  

WTF are you talking about? Please list the 50 posters here that "follow" Risto's posts. If there are 50 people on here who trade based solely on what ANY poster says then there are 50 STUPID people on here. And if that crazy calculation you just pulled out of your ass based on Alexa, probably the MOST inaccurate web traffic tool on the internet, is actually true, then there are at least 2000 STUPID people reading these posts.

Which, now that I think about it is probably true.

But there is not a lot of money following Risto or anyone else (maybe MasterLuc). Because people with a lot of money are smart enough not to "follow" anybody's particular posts.

Usually, I quite enjoy your posts, but this crusade of yours agaisnt RP is getting very tiring for the readers. How about you just ignore him and, do all of us, you included, a big favour.

[Peter R]

edit: In seriousness though, congrats on managing to break through whatever triggered your 300k delusion back in the day.

Which one of us is being fooled now?   No matter what I say, there is a great crowd of followers big and small. Of course I benefit from being a public figure, but what exactly do you gain from trying to "expose" me with screencaps taken from our very own commercial?  

I don't think there is a great crowd of anybody(s) following you anywhere. In your mind maybe.

You might be surprised.  Bitcointalk.org is ranked #1426 by Alexa in the USA and #952 in Canada, for unique vistors per day.  

Quickly calculating the ratio of "views / posts" over a random sampling of forum threads suggests a 40 : 1 lurker-to-poster ratio.  There are at least 50 posters here that follow Risto's posts.  Multiplying that by the lurker-multiplier factor of 40, suggests that approximately 2,000 individuals across the globe are paying attention to what he says.  

WTF are you talking about? Please list the 50 posters here that "follow" Risto's posts. If there are 50 people on here who trade based solely on what ANY poster says then there are 50 STUPID people on here. And if that crazy calculation you just pulled out of your ass based on Alexa, probably the MOST inaccurate web traffic tool on the internet, is actually true, then there are at least 2000 STUPID people reading these posts.

Which, now that I think about it is probably true.

But there is not a lot of money following Risto or anyone else (maybe MasterLuc). Because people with a lot of money are smart enough not to "follow" anybody's particular posts.

I follow your posts too, windjc.  I think you have a lot of good insight, and I'm sure others agree.  The point of my post was to show that there *are* more people watching than just the regular commenters here: your posts and my posts included.  Yes, my calculation could likely be refined--it was just intended as a rough estimate..  

I know Risto has a lot of people that listen to what he says: a few weeks ago there were two "attack" threads launched at Risto.  He received a great deal of support.  He is one of the "personalities" of bitcointalk.  

[bassclef]

Hey bitcoin market, do something. The gamblers are getting bored and need their dopamine rush.

[windjc]

edit: In seriousness though, congrats on managing to break through whatever triggered your 300k delusion back in the day.

Which one of us is being fooled now?   No matter what I say, there is a great crowd of followers big and small. Of course I benefit from being a public figure, but what exactly do you gain from trying to "expose" me with screencaps taken from our very own commercial?  

I don't think there is a great crowd of anybody(s) following you anywhere. In your mind maybe.

You might be surprised.  Bitcointalk.org is ranked #1426 by Alexa in the USA and #952 in Canada, for unique vistors per day.  

Quickly calculating the ratio of "views / posts" over a random sampling of forum threads suggests a 40 : 1 lurker-to-poster ratio.  There are at least 50 posters here that follow Risto's posts.  Multiplying that by the lurker-multiplier factor of 40, suggests that approximately 2,000 individuals across the globe are paying attention to what he says.  

WTF are you talking about? Please list the 50 posters here that "follow" Risto's posts. If there are 50 people on here who trade based solely on what ANY poster says then there are 50 STUPID people on here. And if that crazy calculation you just pulled out of your ass based on Alexa, probably the MOST inaccurate web traffic tool on the internet, is actually true, then there are at least 2000 STUPID people reading these posts.

Which, now that I think about it is probably true.

But there is not a lot of money following Risto or anyone else (maybe MasterLuc). Because people with a lot of money are smart enough not to "follow" anybody's particular posts.

Usually, I quite enjoy your posts, but this crusade of yours agaisnt RP is getting very tiring for the readers. How about you just ignore him and, do all of us, you included, a big favour.

Lol. I have no crusade against RP.  I like the guy. For the most part. I like the log charts he has and I think a lot of his long term strategies are sound. I was just calling him out a little on some of his arrogance. I am not the 100th person to do this.

My point in my last post was that in my humble opinion, no one should "follow" one particular posters advice. Is there good advice on the forum? Absolutely. But it comes from a variety of sources.

[windjc]

edit: In seriousness though, congrats on managing to break through whatever triggered your 300k delusion back in the day.

Which one of us is being fooled now?   No matter what I say, there is a great crowd of followers big and small. Of course I benefit from being a public figure, but what exactly do you gain from trying to "expose" me with screencaps taken from our very own commercial?  

I don't think there is a great crowd of anybody(s) following you anywhere. In your mind maybe.

You might be surprised.  Bitcointalk.org is ranked #1426 by Alexa in the USA and #952 in Canada, for unique vistors per day.  

Quickly calculating the ratio of "views / posts" over a random sampling of forum threads suggests a 40 : 1 lurker-to-poster ratio.  There are at least 50 posters here that follow Risto's posts.  Multiplying that by the lurker-multiplier factor of 40, suggests that approximately 2,000 individuals across the globe are paying attention to what he says.  

WTF are you talking about? Please list the 50 posters here that "follow" Risto's posts. If there are 50 people on here who trade based solely on what ANY poster says then there are 50 STUPID people on here. And if that crazy calculation you just pulled out of your ass based on Alexa, probably the MOST inaccurate web traffic tool on the internet, is actually true, then there are at least 2000 STUPID people reading these posts.

Which, now that I think about it is probably true.

But there is not a lot of money following Risto or anyone else (maybe MasterLuc). Because people with a lot of money are smart enough not to "follow" anybody's particular posts.

I follow your posts too, windjc.  I think you have a lot of good insight, and I'm sure others agree.  The point of my post was to show that there *are* more people watching than just the regular commenters here: your posts and my posts included.  Yes, my calculation could likely be refined--it was just intended as a rough estimate..  

I know Risto has a lot of people that listen to what he says: a few weeks ago their were two "attack" threads launched at Risto.  He received a great deal of support.  He is one of the "personalities" of bitcointalk.  

Maybe so. I concede. Perhaps there are thousands of people trading based on RPs comments. Its a little scary if true though.

[Peter R]

My point in my last post was that in my humble opinion, no one should "follow" one particular posters advice. Is there good advice on the forum? Absolutely. But it comes from a variety of sources.

I think part of the confusion is the definition assumed for the word "follow."  I mean it in the twitter sort of way, as in "pay attention to."  I don't mean blindly do whatever that person suggests.