Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Its About Sharing]

That's what I believe and that's all that matters.

This is becoming a running theme in these forums.

I don't watch TV, and certainly not reality shows... but I would start if there were one with you and rpietila trapped in a lift (elevator) together. Surely, hilarity would ensue!

LOL, that is a quote to remember. Sometimes things just blow up in your face.

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[ManBearPig]

I was pondering like, as you do, what the continuation of higher lows would look like and I concluded that the obvious next data point would be a bounce off $100. Hey presto, yesterday happened.

It looks a little early though thanks to the weak hands selling the news so I think we'll see a double bottom in the next couple of days. Every day we hold above $100 into May is a point for the bulls I believe:



Linear not log as usual bear in mind.

[rezurect]

Gold goes down, waiting to see if it has any effect on BTC.

[ManBearPig]

Gold goes down, waiting to see if it has any effect on BTC.

If BTC's market cap was several orders of magnitude larger then yes, I'd expect so.

I don't think there's much overlap between your typical altcoin speculator and your die-hard precious metal fan.

[Kazu]

  I owned a ton of gold too 

[SlipperySlope]

As this recent drop to $103 was entirely news-driven, I wonder if that after a brief consolidation, and lacking any other follow-on U.S. DHS seizure news, the gentle uptrend of 7 prior days will continue towards resistance near $120.

[cilphex]

I was pondering like, as you do, what the continuation of higher lows would look like and I concluded that the obvious next data point would be a bounce off $100. Hey presto, yesterday happened.

It looks a little early though thanks to the weak hands selling the news so I think we'll see a double bottom in the next couple of days. Every day we hold above $100 into May is a point for the bulls I believe:



Linear not log as usual bear in mind.

This is the chart I've been waiting to see. To me, new highs aren't really that important, I mostly have been waiting to see the new bottom.  It's provided us with this third critical data point for growth rate, which gives us a better idea of bitcoin's trajectory.  I like what it shows.

[fitty]

This is the chart I've been waiting to see. To me, new highs aren't really that important, I mostly have been waiting to see the new bottom.  It's provided us with this third critical data point for growth rate, which gives us a better idea of bitcoin's trajectory.  I like what it shows.

Agreed. Looks like $100 is the new $50. Lots of buying pressure the closer it got to $100. Without the Gox drama (I hope people leave that exchange in droves), we'd probably be at $125-$130.

[ChartBuddy]

[Its About Sharing]

As this recent drop to $103 was entirely news-driven, I wonder if that after a brief consolidation, and lacking any other follow-on U.S. DHS seizure news, the gentle uptrend of 7 prior days will continue towards resistance near $120.

The chart in itself is a sentiment indicator. The news driven "mini sell off" is also a sentiment indicator. I'd say yes to your question as we are still dealing with the same basic premise. Further, if the news stays about at the level it has been received, it is essentially no news. Interesting how it was attacked and run with as being like the end of the world. Really, BTC is an anti-fragile technology and the event is a Black Swan. See my sig. It does not mean we succeed, but I think we have a very very good chance. Time will tell.

ManBearPig - Nice chart and I agree with the reply to it. It is nice to see a confirmation of a bottom, thanks for the chart!

[SlipperySlope]

I was pondering like, as you do, what the continuation of higher lows would look like and I concluded that the obvious next data point would be a bounce off $100. Hey presto, yesterday happened.

It looks a little early though thanks to the weak hands selling the news so I think we'll see a double bottom in the next couple of days. Every day we hold above $100 into May is a point for the bulls I believe:



Linear not log as usual bear in mind.

This is the chart I've been waiting to see. To me, new highs aren't really that important, I mostly have been waiting to see the new bottom.  It's provided us with this third critical data point for growth rate, which gives us a better idea of bitcoin's trajectory.  I like what it shows.

I drew this chart with log prices and show a breakthough. But as the decline appears entirely news-event driven, I am thinking now that this could be a false breakout on my chart.

Given my hypothesis of a bubble collapse from April 10, this support trendline must be broken through to the downside by the end of June. Simply going sideways for that length of time would constitute a breakthough on the downside given the steepness of the support line.

[Its About Sharing]

This is the chart I've been waiting to see. To me, new highs aren't really that important, I mostly have been waiting to see the new bottom.  It's provided us with this third critical data point for growth rate, which gives us a better idea of bitcoin's trajectory.  I like what it shows.

Agreed. Looks like $100 is the new $50. Lots of buying pressure the closer it got to $100. Without the Gox drama (I hope people leave that exchange in droves), we'd probably be at $125-$130.

I really wonder how much support we are getting from Europe and China. Here in Germany when the news hit, the prices were unaffected in large part.
As we go more global, it is going to be interesting to see how we adapt and adjust to news. I am looking forward to more good news from China.
Remember, we have next to no float (11 million minus BTC's). Once the majority of those stop changing hands so often for the purposes of pure speculation, we will see another run to a market price.
Where that is we can only guess, but doing some simple math puts us in the 100's of dollars per BTC, and that is short term. Let's hope we continue to follow regulations fairly well and that VC money
keeps coming in. Even if we become a Western Union, pay pal replacement IN PART, we are talking a valuation over $500 per BTC. 11 million float for a global currency is like a bad joke, at least we
have those 8 decimal places.  

[Richy_T]

From my limited understanding as well (so nothing dumb about it, my friend)

You are making a lot of hard assertions based on your now self-admitted (and quite frankly wrong) limited understanding. That is where the dumb is.

[Richy_T]

I'm not talking personal ideology, I'm talking grey area from a legal standpoint.  The USG is coming for their taxes.  You can bet with 100% certainty this will be the case.  But the USG will want to have solid legal footing to do so.  Because of the internet, it's requiring updated rules, regulations and policies to deal with it.  This is all new for everyone.

There's really not much of a legal gray/grey area. It's not like Bitcoin is the first dollar-alternative (if anything, the dollar is something of a latecomer to the game) and businesses have been operating internationally since prehistoric times.

With that said, the US does have some f*ed up tax laws it might be possible to fall foul of for the unwary but in general terms, this stuff is pretty well understood by now.

[deathcode]

$115 in a few minutes.... mmmmm and I thought the US was bearish and Europe/Asia was bullish...
Man being a bear right now must feel like a punch in the nuts!!
After the DHS fiasco we couldn't even touch 100....
Maybe my $130 prediction by the end of the week is not so impossible after all!

[Coinseeker]

Just ...the...beginning.  

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/05/15/the-coming-political-battle-over-bitcoin/

[Ultraviolet]

People who are being so super bullish despite the US Government telegraphing their intention to do something about Bitcoin should strongly consider protecting their stack. If shit really goes down, it will be a real $110 to $70 drop and you may never see the buying pressure return. Shit gets real at this point in BTC's evolution.

[Miz4r]

Bid side is starting to look healthy and strong again, perhaps we're soon going back to retest $120?

[Sitarow]

Just ...the...beginning.  

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/05/15/the-coming-political-battle-over-bitcoin/

"It’s the first federal action against the currency."

They are entitled to their opinion of the situation even if its author is speculating as to the circumstances behind this recent series of events.

And for those familiar with the past Dwolla incidences with exchanges "tradehill" knows never to do business with Dwolla in general.

People who are being so super bullish despite the US Government telegraphing their intention to do something about Bitcoin should strongly consider protecting their stack. If shit really goes down, it will be a real $110 to $70 drop and you may never see the buying pressure return. Shit gets real at this point in BTC's evolution.

Its been real since the beginning.

Edit P.S. I think this disruption in MtGox Dwolla service effected BTC-E greater then any other exchange. Did you happen to see the price of LTC/USD on the BTC-E exchange?

[HerrDoktor]

Just ...the...beginning.  

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/05/15/the-coming-political-battle-over-bitcoin/

They are entitled to their opinion of the situation even if its author is speculating as to the circumstances behind this recent series of events.

And for those familiar with the past Dwolla incidences with exchanges "tradehill" knows never to do business with Dwolla in general.

I totally agree with you. And so far this has been a move against Dwolla not against gox directly. So much FUD today....