Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ShroomsKit_Disgrace]

Any predictions on when the breakout is going to come and is it going to be up or down ?

Short term breakout down. Then midterm breakout up.

And that is a FACT

ShroomsKit_Disgracem is that a question or a statement ?

A fact,  that was a FACT.

[Aki4real]

I'm personnaly a bit trained into charting analyze and following bitcoin community for ~2years but as some of you are way more experienced into bitcoin world I would like to get your point on this :

To summarize my thoughts :
- We had plenty of cascading bad news (mainly related to mtgox),
- lots of relay on mainstream press showing bad sides of (current)-bitcoin-ecosystem,
- the malleability glitch is easy to be reported as "bug into bitcoin itseft" for non initiated people.

Even with this situation price fell "only" to 500$ and with big volumes. Except a main problem on bitcoin protocol itseft, I can't imagine worst than oldest/biggest marketplace falling - mtgox, used to be the leader and still was for medias).

From looking at recent events and charts I would presume that real floor is 500, would you ?

As a professional Forex Trader, (though conventional methods dont apply on BTC) I'd also suggest putting 500 as a solid support for future prices.
We might test it again, but it seems solid enough to hold.

[San1ty]

Looks like a volcanic breakout waiting to happen. Hold on tight gents!

[HairyMaclairy]

My purchase at $602 that I thought I might regret I regretted so I sodl at $597.  Now to wait.

[solarflare]

Even with this situation price fell "only" to 500$ and with big volumes. Except a main problem on bitcoin protocol itseft, I can't imagine worst than oldest/biggest marketplace falling - mtgox, used to be the leader and still was for medias).

From looking at recent events and charts I would presume that real floor is 500, would you ?

I'd say so (for what it's worth).
It is quite impressive indeed that the price only fell so high.

[thoughtfan]

If they use Bitcoin properly, their money is probably safer than any other asset they own.

From a technical perspective, I agree with you 100%. But you can't with all honesty say that assets stored in BTC are as safe as Fed Bonds. Now before you go and start describing how completely fabricated the US monetary system is, I am not saying it is not as fickle as you know it is. All I am saying, is that there is a lot more power behind one than the other...

Assets stored in Bitcoin? Bitcoin is the asset (actually the private keys which allow modification of the decentralized ledger).

The above exchange may have been resolved in the last couple of pages but just seeing this exchange made me smile because it is a beautiful illustration of someone trapped by their own paradigm failing to see what the other is trying to say.  Sorry CoinDox, kkaspar but if you didn't figure it out in the correspondence since:

If Bitcoin is what is valued for what it is (irrespective of how it is valued by others against other measures) then what Holliday says is simply and undeniably true.

It is not unreasonable to question whether it is a good idea to value something on the basis of it being able to be stored and transferred securely without a third party even if one day it may be valued so little by others that a massive stash could not buy your next meal, but that's not your argument.  And if I recollect from way back I believe Holliday claims to hold PM as assets as well as fiat.  Unlike you however, I don't believe he uses his fiat as the means of valuing those assets (nor, I would guess, is his fiat valued in gold troy ounces etc), rather that the asset is valued for what it is (and what it isn't).  The market value of each only tells us how others value each relative to one another and is interesting (and necessary for tax reasons) but that's not the same thing.

Don't worry CoinDox, kkaspar if the penny hasn't dropped yet.  Constructive struggle, cognitive dissonance may feel frustrating but it is an healthy educational process.  I do not mean to be condescending but keep up the good work

[yrtrnc]

It doesnt look likely we will go down much further. 550 seems the bottom.

[HairyMaclairy]

Not sure how you count 500 as solid support when we tested 400 pretty convincingly 2 days ago.

[raid_n]

c) I've told you before that Proof of Work is a robust way of building consensus in such an anonymous probabilistic consensus
Bitcoin is a protocol. If a better method comes along that is guaranteed to work it can be implemented trivially.

Proof-of-Stake is already better and could be implemented but there is no interest in doing that because even the very small decrease in deflation that is created, will put most people off. Most here want as much deflation as possible.
When looking at the past developments and the current discussions on possible developments, then I don't see any hope for important changes.

I disagree. Proof of Stake has not been formally proven to be robust to all attacks. When that happens the discussion becomes relevant.
The proof of work method bitcoin uses relies on sha256 hashing which has been investigated quite thoroughly.

People need to wrap their head around the fact that bitcoin is what the majority of miners use as a protocol.
Anything can be changed, yes this includes the 21 million cap. If everyone adopts a protocol that changes this then
thats that. If some don't agree with this you'd fork bitcoin, effectively creating a new altcoin.

I myself find it funny that bitcoin is called as a protocol to some. Protocol needs to be something neutral without increasing unit price. You don't see e-mail being created in a way where the new adopters have to fill the pockets of the old adopters to join the game. If e-mail would have been created in this way, then people would have found a workaround to create an alternative where everyone can get a fair chance in using this protocol.
These are the wet dreams of bitcoin adopters, that everyone will start using bitcoin and will start filling their pockets in the process. But the world doesn't work like that. There are smart enough people to create alternatives, so people don't have to feed the leeches to use a piece of technology.

Roughly speaking a protocol is merely an agreed upon way of communication. It is neutral in the sense that the protocol is well defined
and you are free to implement code that is compliant with the protocol.

The unit price has absolutely nothing to do with this. In a system where you want to exchange ownership of something you need
to actually create that something. Either you put it all in at the start or you add it. To stick with the protocol concept.
Altcoins that are forks of bitcoin are merely modifications of the protocol where these aspects were changed.

I'll go as far as saying it is impossible to create a system of wealth exchange without having an "unfair" distribution.
Every single altcoin has this exact problem. Look at the discussions on wealth distribution in nxt for instance.

Anyway, I like your post because you explained yourself in a calm and constructive manner. I still can't see how bitcoin could survive very long though.

Hey look, its refreshing to have a serious discussion with all the trolling going on these days. Even if we disagree  

[Mythul]

Senator BitBan spreads the FUD

[bitcoinvest]

Since i have not read it here i thought that many of you here want to read it ( if it's true )


http://www.wickedfire.com/shooting-shit/179038-my-conversation-mark-karpeles-mtgox-2.html#post2164682

My full unedited conversation with Mark...

I removed the channel name and my IP info along with the person who created the channel that does not want to be on record for this.

This conversation took place on 02-25-2014 at 10:39am EST.


[10:39] == JonWickedFire [IP REDACTED] has joined CHANNELNAME
[10:40] == mode/CHANNELNAME
[10:47] == MagicalTux [~MagicalTu@mtgox/staff/MagicalTux] has joined CHANNELNAME
[10:48] <JonWickedFire> Hey Mark.
[10:48] <JonWickedFire> Thanks for coming in.. I know you're a bit.. shaken up and stressed..
[10:51] <MagicalTux> hi
[10:51] <JonWickedFire> Are you doing okay?
[10:52] <MagicalTux> more or less
[10:52] <MagicalTux> it's 1am and tomorrow morning first time I have a lawyer appointment
[10:52] <MagicalTux> things couldn't be better
[10:52] <MagicalTux> (well, not tomorrow but today, now)
[10:53] <JonWickedFire> Yeah, you're in the future over there in Japan, lol.
[10:53] <MagicalTux> guys in NZ are even more in the future
[10:54] <JonWickedFire> Yeah two places I've wanted to visit but cringe at the flight time alone.
[10:55] <JonWickedFire> So I just wanted to talk to you on here, no pressure, you don't have to answer anything you don't want to. I'm not a journalist.
[10:55] <JonWickedFire> We've chatted before briefly. So you know a lil something on me.
[10:56] <MagicalTux> yep
[10:56] <JonWickedFire> And with all of what happened yesterday, even though I knew all of that, I didn't let me contacts at FOX Business publish it, because I didn't want to see bitcoin or gox going up in flames if it could be salvaged.
[10:57] <JonWickedFire> Obviously holding that info back and not publishing a tumblr or leaking docs first allowed someone else to stake a claim on it first.
[10:58] <JonWickedFire> But you win some you lose some.. and honestly, I'm not a fan of people posting things that are rumors or bullshit or not verified just because it damages the shit out of someone or a company... and it really cannot be taken back afterwards.
[10:58] <JonWickedFire> Is that Crisis Strategy Draft even legit?
[11:04] <MagicalTux> more or less
[11:05] <MagicalTux> as the name suggests it's a draft, and it's a bunch of proposals to deal with the issue at hand, not things that are actually planned and/or done
[11:06] <MagicalTux> this said this document was not produced by MtGox
[11:07] <JonWickedFire> I saw some strategies in there that I had shared with you, but also saw some things in there that I would have never suggested anyone ever go through with as it would make you look horrible..
[11:07] <JonWickedFire> I think a lot of people ignored the draft part.
[11:08] <JonWickedFire> It was just really surprising to see that being "leaked"..
[11:10] <JonWickedFire> Do you think it was leaked by someone purposely to hurt you personally or gox in general?
[11:13] <MagicalTux> [01:09:51] <JonWickedFire> Do you think it was leaked by someone purposely to hurt you personally or gox in general? <- I have some doubts
[11:14] <JonWickedFire> Heh, I bet.
[11:17] <JonWickedFire> Are you stepping down as CEO and away from gox too?
[11:17] <JonWickedFire> (If you can't legally disclose, then just say so)
[11:20] <MagicalTux> can't disclose that yety
[11:20] <MagicalTux> yet
[11:20] <JonWickedFire> K np.
[11:22] <JonWickedFire> The reason I'm asking is because after yesterday's events of you removing yourself from the foundation and deleting the Twitter account/posts and all.. right away speculation within the bitcoin arena went into hyper chaotic mode, and the word on the street was that you were closing up shop and running away with all of their monies and bitcoin...
[11:22] <JonWickedFire> How does that make you feel to hear or see people you bailed out yourself and stood up for over the years, turn on you like that?
[11:22] <MagicalTux> not good
[11:24] <JonWickedFire> Mark, I know you're not one for expressing yourself, but here's your chance at it, because you really have stepped up before, and done things NO ONE else ever had.. or probably will again.. and it seems like all of it has been quickly forgotten and instead you're being labeled as the Madoff of bitcoin.
[11:25] <JonWickedFire> We're having this chat, and you're still in Japan at your apt/office and not in a cave somewhere, right?
[11:34] <JonWickedFire> Look Mark, you took mtgox and ran with it, built on it, stuck with it and took it to a level no one ever thought possible. When other exchanges were crippled, you stepped in and bailed them out or absorbed them to save the bitcoin market in general. In exchange it brought you a massive surge of customers and press that made you look like the hero of the day and then some.
[11:34] <JonWickedFire> But what most people forget too was that you weren't set up to handle this from the start..
[11:35] <MagicalTux> [01:25:02] <JonWickedFire> We're having this chat, and you're still in Japan at your apt/office and not in a cave somewhere, right? <- at home, with my cat being a pain sleeping on the keyboard
[11:35] <JonWickedFire> Yeah, doesn't sound like someone on the run with bags of money...
[11:37] <JonWickedFire> What's the plan now for you and mtgox?
[11:37] <MagicalTux> can't comment on that yet
[11:37] <JonWickedFire> Alright.
[11:37] <MagicalTux> (mostly because doing so could compromise our current efforts)
[11:38] <MagicalTux> imgur: the simple image sharer <- my cat pushing my keyboard, me pushing the keyboard back on the desk
[11:38] <JonWickedFire> So you guys are still actively trying to save it though?
[11:38] <MagicalTux> We haven't given up
[11:40] <JonWickedFire> You could have given up and walked away a bunch of times previously, but you always stuck it out... even though others have closed up and walked away, why have you continued to fight and work at it and not give up?
[11:41] <MagicalTux> "Giving up" is not part of how I usually do things
[11:42] <JonWickedFire> Do you want to tell your side of this a bit more?
[11:43] <JonWickedFire> Like what you've sacrificed or given up, personally? I have to imagine it's taken quite a toll on you.
[11:43] <MagicalTux> well, first I would guess is my health
[11:43] <JonWickedFire> What do you mean?
[11:44] <MagicalTux> took on more than 30kg since handling MtGox
[11:44] <MagicalTux> (compensating for stress by eating)
[11:47] <JonWickedFire> I'm guessing stress from lack of sleep too, like now..
[11:48] <MagicalTux> heh
[11:48] <MagicalTux> and drinking liters of coca cola
[11:48] <MagicalTux> how american
[11:48] <MagicalTux> (almost american, actually, since some people see coca cola as being non-american)
[11:52] <JonWickedFire> lol
[11:54] <MagicalTux> anyway
[11:54] <MagicalTux> I should try to get some sleep
[11:55] <MagicalTux> already 2am
[11:55] <MagicalTux> waking up in 4 hours
[11:55] <JonWickedFire> Err
[11:55] <JonWickedFire> One more thing..
[11:55] <MagicalTux> and starting to be tired of pushing my keyboard so it stays on the desk
[11:56] <JonWickedFire> Do you still believe in the viability of an unregulated digital currency like bitcoin tho?
[11:57] <MagicalTux> difficult
[11:57] <MagicalTux> tbqh the pressure we got from banks and governments makes things very hard
[11:58] <JonWickedFire> Do you think if it were regulated it would make it easier to work things out?
[11:58] <MagicalTux> partially
[11:58] <JonWickedFire> How so?
[11:59] <MagicalTux> well, first avoid being blocked by banks and governments around the world
[11:59] <MagicalTux> if regulated, it means that as long as you follow the regulations you're fine
[12:00] <JonWickedFire> The biggest question people really have asked though is are you personally vested in mtgox with your own btc?
[12:01] <JonWickedFire> And whether or not you, like everyone else, have taken a personal hit and are in the same boat as they are in terms of taking a loss/hit from the recent events?
[12:01] <MagicalTux> [02:00:59] <JonWickedFire> And whether or not you, like everyone else, have taken a personal hit and are in the same boat as they are in terms of taking a loss/hit from the recent events? <- any BTC I own personally were on MtGox
[12:02] <JonWickedFire> How much did you lose yourself?
[12:04] <MagicalTux> Well, technically speaking it's not "lost" just yet, just temporarily unavailable
[12:05] == MagicalTux [~MagicalTu@mtgox/staff/MagicalTux]
[12:05] == realname : Mark Karpeles
[12:05] == channels : CHANNELNAME
[12:05] == server : calvino.freenode.net [Milan, IT]
[12:05] == account : magicaltux
[12:05] == End of WHOIS
[12:05] <JonWickedFire> Well, how much is unavail for you?
[12:06] <MagicalTux> I'm not even sure
[12:06] <JonWickedFire> Guys on Reddit and WickedFire are running around posting screenshots of horror stories about how much bitcoin they have lost from this..
[12:06] <MagicalTux> didn't check my wallet before pushing the site offline
[12:07] <MagicalTux> anyway
[12:07] <MagicalTux> maybe I should go to sleep now
[12:07] <JonWickedFire> Anything else you'd like to say to everyone before all the pissed off people start going nuts, even more...?
[12:09] <MagicalTux> not really
[12:09] <MagicalTux> maybe just a link? something like that: Why do we fall? - 9GAG
[12:09] <MagicalTux> well, we'll see how this one goes anyway
[12:16] <JonWickedFire> Well, I'd like to chat more, but I know you're pushing to go to sleep.
[12:17] <JonWickedFire> And so long as you are saying you're not disappearing from this.. that's okay.
[12:17] <JonWickedFire> I still think you should say something more to all these people or at least reveal how much you've taken a hit for, personally..
[12:17] <JonWickedFire> It would show them that you are still on their side.
[12:19] <JonWickedFire> By the way, that whole removal from the foundation, did you decide to leave that before or after the chats with them to help save gox versus let it fail?

[thanksmark]

Any predictions on when the breakout is going to come and is it going to be up or down ?

Short term breakout down. Then midterm breakout up.

And that is a FACT

ShroomsKit_Disgracem is that a question or a statement ?

A fact,  that was a FACT.

Confirmed! 

Meanwhile, HODL

[San1ty]

Rocket primed, last chances to get in. Chart is clear as day... triangle closing...

[TakeTheSkyRoad]

Since i have not read it hear i thought that many of you here want to read it ( if it's true )


http://www.wickedfire.com/shooting-shit/179038-my-conversation-mark-karpeles-mtgox-2.html#post2164682

My full unedited conversation with Mark...

I removed the channel name and my IP info along with the person who created the channel that does not want to be on record for this.

This conversation took place on 02-25-2014 at 10:39am EST.

....

Thanks for that

[kehtolo]

Rocket primed, last chances to get in. Chart is clear as day... triangle closing...

On what chart 1hr? 4hr? i can see it on all charts, just a matter of timing.. triangle closing soon.. anytime in the next 10-11 hours i guess.
Will be interesting to see if it does kick up or what.

[kkaspar]

I disagree. Proof of Stake has not been formally proven to be robust to all attacks. When that happens the discussion becomes relevant.
The proof of work method bitcoin uses relies on sha256 hashing which has been investigated quite thoroughly.

That is the reason why bitcoin isn't obsolete yet, and it will take time till new trustworthy digital currencies emerge. It took couple of years for bitcoin to proove it's secure enough. I expect new currencies to prove themselves quicker because of the increased amount of attention that the entire subject is getting

Roughly speaking a protocol is merely an agreed upon way of communication. It is neutral in the sense that the protocol is well defined
and you are free to implement code that is compliant with the protocol.

The unit price has absolutely nothing to do with this. In a system where you want to exchange ownership of something you need
to actually create that something. Either you put it all in at the start or you add it. To stick with the protocol concept.
Altcoins that are forks of bitcoin are merely modifications of the protocol where these aspects were changed.

And here we can see the difference. The bitcoin source code could be defined as an protocol. A neutral piece of software that you can use to build different applications on. But bitcoin(tm) itself is a speficic brand of service, that is only based on the protocol. When unit price is involved then it doesn't resemble anything else that has been called a protocol in the field of information technology.
It's like someone creating the IMAP protocol, and at the same time creating an IMAP using e-mail service and calling the service itself "the IMAP protocol"

I'll go as far as saying it is impossible to create a system of wealth exchange without having an "unfair" distribution.
Every single altcoin has this exact problem. Look at the discussions on wealth distribution in nxt for instance.

I agree that there is no way that you can make a system that is 100% fair. But you can either have increased of decreased amount of fairness. The main thing to decrease the amount of fairness in the bitcoin system is the same old devil: too fast deflation . This is what makes a very wide cap between adopters who have entered at different times. Most of the altcoins suffer the same problem. They also want to sell their coins and therefor they try to make them attractive to buyers. And the main option to use is a promise of increasing deflation and riches that come with that.  What we would need is an currency that is attracting people by it's utility, not by it's speculative investment value.

[TERA]

Rocket primed, last chances to get in. Chart is clear as day... triangle closing...

On what chart 1hr? 4hr? i can see it on all charts, just a matter of timing.. triangle closing soon.. anytime in the next 10-11 hours i guess.
Will be interesting to see if it does kick up or what.

I'm finding it hard to make out a 'triangle' on any chart right now.

[magicmexican]

Not sure yet, but i possibly got goxxed out of ~6 real btc by bitcoinbuilder

[fluidjax]

Not sure yet, but i possibly got goxxed out of ~6 real btc by bitcoinbuilder

You mean you had a problem with Bitcoinbuilder, or are going to lose 6BTC when Gox goes bankrupt?

[kkaspar]

What we would need is an currency that is attracting people by it's utility, not by it's speculative investment value.

Sour grapes don't sound any different now than they did 3 years ago ... boy most of these arguments are old, tired and still wrong, yawn.

You are the first person I consider putting on ignore here. I must congratulate you because it's no easy feat to successfully troll me. You have talent for compiling insulting posts, that have absolutely nothing to do with the ongoing subject. I must confess that it is quite irritating.
But I think that I won't put you on ignore. My curiosity gets the best of me and its interesting to see, if you are able to really get to me, enough that I wish to do terrible things on you.