Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

If this bear market has been largely caused by Chinese miners that can do nothing with bitcoins except sell them, then it is likely to end when one of two things happen: Either they run out of stockpiled coins to sell over and above coins they are mining, or when the Chinese economy gets so bad that they realize that the killer app is to sneak out of the country with them.

Right now Bitcoins seems to be an answer in search of a problem: Most obviously capital controls in a world where capital is still largely mobile. When this situation changes, it is likely to be sudden and swift although the time frame is difficult to predict with any accuracy.

Miners aren't the ones selling in this market. It's pure speculative manipulation. A miner would never dump coins and cause the price to decline. They would sell the minimum number of coins necessary to cover costs at the best price possible and stock the rest for a much higher price.

Lets put this one to bed, miners are not dumping coins and they are certainly not doing them as a market order.

Best... Post... Recently.

[silverfuture]

Half-true article on the history of money. Szabo did it better, but this is more entertaining.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-21/why-does-fiat-money-seemingly-work

By contrast, in a fiat money system in which interest rates are administered by a bureaucratic central economic planning agency the signals sent by interest rates to entrepreneurs about expected future consumer demand and the true cost of capital are continually falsified, and thereby encourage malinvestment of scarce capital. Phases during which the supply of credit and money expands strongly and malinvestments proliferate are known as “economic booms”, and everybody loves them. When a boom turns to bust and the liquidation of malinvested capital becomes necessary, few people are aware that the preceding boom is at fault. And so the cry for more monetary and fiscal intervention arises, which lengthens and deepens the malaise by putting malinvested capital on artificial life support.

A near-textbook explanation of Austrian Business Cycle Theory. In Austrian economics, the capital structure of an economy is key. Booms and busts are caused/amplified by distortions in the market rate cost of money (interest). The fact that these distortions are intentionally caused by Central bankers implementing Keynesian policy is why Austrians and Keynesians have such animosity towards each other.

The bitcoin economy is currently experiencing a bull market in the fiat asset class due to deflation/ credit contraction in the fiat world. Central banks have hit the zero bound (interest rates can't go below zero or people will just hold onto their money) and have also resorted to outright counterfeiting (quantitative easing), but the consumer still won't spend. They tools they used to boost aggregate demand merely pushed demand forward and now there is little else they can do.

The bitcoin bear market looked at from the other direction is a fiat boom that will inevitably bust, but Keynes was right about one thing: Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, which is why leveraged speculating is so dangerous even if you get the fundamentals right. 

Interesting posts, it's stuff like this I come here to read.

[samsonn25]

If this bear market has been largely caused by Chinese miners that can do nothing with bitcoins except sell them, then it is likely to end when one of two things happen: Either they run out of stockpiled coins to sell over and above coins they are mining, or when the Chinese economy gets so bad that they realize that the killer app is to sneak out of the country with them.

Right now Bitcoins seems to be an answer in search of a problem: Most obviously capital controls in a world where capital is still largely mobile. When this situation changes, it is likely to be sudden and swift although the time frame is difficult to predict with any accuracy.

Miners aren't the ones selling in this market. It's pure speculative manipulation. A miner would never dump coins and cause the price to decline. They would sell the minimum number of coins necessary to cover costs at the best price possible and stock the rest for a much higher price.

Lets put this one to bed, miners are not dumping coins and they are certainly not dumping them as a market order.

^5

[silverfuture]

If this bear market has been largely caused by Chinese miners that can do nothing with bitcoins except sell them, then it is likely to end when one of two things happen: Either they run out of stockpiled coins to sell over and above coins they are mining, or when the Chinese economy gets so bad that they realize that the killer app is to sneak out of the country with them.

Right now Bitcoins seems to be an answer in search of a problem: Most obviously capital controls in a world where capital is still largely mobile. When this situation changes, it is likely to be sudden and swift although the time frame is difficult to predict with any accuracy.

Miners aren't the ones selling in this market. It's pure speculative manipulation. A miner would never dump coins and cause the price to decline. They would sell the minimum number of coins necessary to cover costs at the best price possible and stock the rest for a much higher price.

Lets put this one to bed, miners are not dumping coins and they are certainly not doing them as a market order.

Best... Post... Recently.

Gotta agree with rolling. Miners are among the most optimistic of the bulls as a group.

[silverfuture]

If this bear market has been largely caused by Chinese miners that can do nothing with bitcoins except sell them, then it is likely to end when one of two things happen: Either they run out of stockpiled coins to sell over and above coins they are mining, or when the Chinese economy gets so bad that they realize that the killer app is to sneak out of the country with them.

Right now Bitcoins seems to be an answer in search of a problem: Most obviously capital controls in a world where capital is still largely mobile. When this situation changes, it is likely to be sudden and swift although the time frame is difficult to predict with any accuracy.

Mined coins are not that much, 3600 per day and the Chinese probably only have less than 35% share of that so thats only 1200 coins per days assuming they sell all of them every day.  

There is more belief of short traders and options sellers using leverage.

3600 isn't that many when you consider how many individuals those are distributed to. Most only get a tiny sliver of coin from each block and they all have different motivations. There are far, far more than 3600 coins that change hands on a daily basis.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

If this bear market has been largely caused by Chinese miners that can do nothing with bitcoins except sell them, then it is likely to end when one of two things happen: Either they run out of stockpiled coins to sell over and above coins they are mining, or when the Chinese economy gets so bad that they realize that the killer app is to sneak out of the country with them.

Right now Bitcoins seems to be an answer in search of a problem: Most obviously capital controls in a world where capital is still largely mobile. When this situation changes, it is likely to be sudden and swift although the time frame is difficult to predict with any accuracy.

Miners aren't the ones selling in this market. It's pure speculative manipulation. A miner would never dump coins and cause the price to decline. They would sell the minimum number of coins necessary to cover costs at the best price possible and stock the rest for a much higher price.

Lets put this one to bed, miners are not dumping coins and they are certainly not doing them as a market order.

Best... Post... Recently.

Gotta agree with rolling. Miners are among the most optimistic of the bulls as a group.

It doesn't matter how optimistic miners are. Miners have to service their debt and to meet expenses just like everybody else. If you postpone selling because of a bear market, you can end up NEEDING to sell more rather than less because the price is lower, the loan payments are higher and all your other expenses remain the same.  It doesn't matter one bit if it's market orders or limit orders creating more overhead resistance.

[ElectricMucus]

If this bear market has been largely caused by Chinese miners that can do nothing with bitcoins except sell them, then it is likely to end when one of two things happen: Either they run out of stockpiled coins to sell over and above coins they are mining, or when the Chinese economy gets so bad that they realize that the killer app is to sneak out of the country with them.

Right now Bitcoins seems to be an answer in search of a problem: Most obviously capital controls in a world where capital is still largely mobile. When this situation changes, it is likely to be sudden and swift although the time frame is difficult to predict with any accuracy.

Mined coins are not that much, 3600 per day and the Chinese probably only have less than 35% share of that so thats only 1200 coins per days assuming they sell all of them every day.  

There is more belief of short traders and options sellers using leverage.

3600 isn't that many when you consider how many individuals those are distributed to. Most only get a tiny sliver of coin from each block and they all have different motivations. There are far, far more than 3600 coins that change hands on a daily basis.

It is if you consider that at current difficulty and a electricity price of USD 0.1 it costs at least USD 133 to mine a Bitcoin. Some might have cheaper electricity but not faster ASICs so daily almost half a million dollars of cash is required to keep prices afloat, whenever that comes from the miners themselves or speculators who buy them doesn't matter. Somebody has to pay it.

[DaRude]

If this bear market has been largely caused by Chinese miners that can do nothing with bitcoins except sell them, then it is likely to end when one of two things happen: Either they run out of stockpiled coins to sell over and above coins they are mining, or when the Chinese economy gets so bad that they realize that the killer app is to sneak out of the country with them.

Right now Bitcoins seems to be an answer in search of a problem: Most obviously capital controls in a world where capital is still largely mobile. When this situation changes, it is likely to be sudden and swift although the time frame is difficult to predict with any accuracy.

Mined coins are not that much, 3600 per day and the Chinese probably only have less than 35% share of that so thats only 1200 coins per days assuming they sell all of them every day.  

There is more belief of short traders and options sellers using leverage.

BTC3600 is not that much   that's like additional $850,000 sell pressure every single day. BTC is not that liquid to easily sustain that.

But some relief will come in 18months

[rolling]

If this bear market has been largely caused by Chinese miners that can do nothing with bitcoins except sell them, then it is likely to end when one of two things happen: Either they run out of stockpiled coins to sell over and above coins they are mining, or when the Chinese economy gets so bad that they realize that the killer app is to sneak out of the country with them.

Right now Bitcoins seems to be an answer in search of a problem: Most obviously capital controls in a world where capital is still largely mobile. When this situation changes, it is likely to be sudden and swift although the time frame is difficult to predict with any accuracy.

Miners aren't the ones selling in this market. It's pure speculative manipulation. A miner would never dump coins and cause the price to decline. They would sell the minimum number of coins necessary to cover costs at the best price possible and stock the rest for a much higher price.

Lets put this one to bed, miners are not dumping coins and they are certainly not doing them as a market order.

Best... Post... Recently.

Gotta agree with rolling. Miners are among the most optimistic of the bulls as a group.

It doesn't matter how optimistic miners are. Miners have to service their debt and to meet expenses just like everybody else. If you postpone selling because of a bear market, you can end up NEEDING to sell more rather than less because the price is lower, the loan payments are higher and all your other expenses remain the same.  It doesn't matter one bit if it's market orders or limit orders creating more overhead resistance.

Partially true. Miners may have to start selling at some point if they are no longer able to service debt with other income streams but a market order has a huge difference in this market compared to a limit order. A miner would NEVER dump 5k coins in single market order. It causes too much slippage and the market seems to stabilize at a lower price after a big downward movement. It's not miners causing these major movements.

[BlackSpidy]

18 months... That's the halving, right? I'm excited to see first hand how these markets behave then. And, boy, the trolls are gonna have a field day fear mongering then.

[ElectricMucus]

If this bear market has been largely caused by Chinese miners that can do nothing with bitcoins except sell them, then it is likely to end when one of two things happen: Either they run out of stockpiled coins to sell over and above coins they are mining, or when the Chinese economy gets so bad that they realize that the killer app is to sneak out of the country with them.

Right now Bitcoins seems to be an answer in search of a problem: Most obviously capital controls in a world where capital is still largely mobile. When this situation changes, it is likely to be sudden and swift although the time frame is difficult to predict with any accuracy.

Miners aren't the ones selling in this market. It's pure speculative manipulation. A miner would never dump coins and cause the price to decline. They would sell the minimum number of coins necessary to cover costs at the best price possible and stock the rest for a much higher price.

Lets put this one to bed, miners are not dumping coins and they are certainly not doing them as a market order.

Best... Post... Recently.

Gotta agree with rolling. Miners are among the most optimistic of the bulls as a group.

It doesn't matter how optimistic miners are. Miners have to service their debt and to meet expenses just like everybody else. If you postpone selling because of a bear market, you can end up NEEDING to sell more rather than less because the price is lower, the loan payments are higher and all your other expenses remain the same.  It doesn't matter one bit if it's market orders or limit orders creating more overhead resistance.

Partially true. Miners may have to start selling at some point if they are no longer able to service debt with other income streams but a market order has a huge difference in this market compared to a limit order. A miner would NEVER dump 5k coins in single market order. It causes too much slippage and the market seems to stabilize at a lower price after a big downward movement. It's not miners causing these major movements.

Or they can declare bankruptcy.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

18 months... That's the halving, right? I'm excited to see first hand how these markets behave then. And, boy, the trolls are gonna have a field day fear mongering then.

Such optimism and hope

[silverfuture]

If this bear market has been largely caused by Chinese miners that can do nothing with bitcoins except sell them, then it is likely to end when one of two things happen: Either they run out of stockpiled coins to sell over and above coins they are mining, or when the Chinese economy gets so bad that they realize that the killer app is to sneak out of the country with them.

Right now Bitcoins seems to be an answer in search of a problem: Most obviously capital controls in a world where capital is still largely mobile. When this situation changes, it is likely to be sudden and swift although the time frame is difficult to predict with any accuracy.

Miners aren't the ones selling in this market. It's pure speculative manipulation. A miner would never dump coins and cause the price to decline. They would sell the minimum number of coins necessary to cover costs at the best price possible and stock the rest for a much higher price.

Lets put this one to bed, miners are not dumping coins and they are certainly not doing them as a market order.

Best... Post... Recently.

Gotta agree with rolling. Miners are among the most optimistic of the bulls as a group.

It doesn't matter how optimistic miners are. Miners have to service their debt and to meet expenses just like everybody else. If you postpone selling because of a bear market, you can end up NEEDING to sell more rather than less because the price is lower, the loan payments are higher and all your other expenses remain the same.  It doesn't matter one bit if it's market orders or limit orders creating more overhead resistance.

It's a factor and when you consider that the biggest pressures will be on the biggest operations who are financially weak and vulnerable to default. There are many miners who look at mining as a way to buy bitcoins without the risk and expense of mickey mouse exchanges and hacker/counterparty risk.

I was GPU mining 2 bitcoins a day on good days in late 2011 with a bitcoin price around 2$ @ 2 gh/s @1200watts of power at a comfortable profit loss. I'm glad I just kept those coins and didn't only look at the short term profits when deciding to continue. What helped was living within my means, a long term vision, and having reserve capital for expenses during lean times.  

[billyjoeallen]

If this bear market has been largely caused by Chinese miners that can do nothing with bitcoins except sell them, then it is likely to end when one of two things happen: Either they run out of stockpiled coins to sell over and above coins they are mining, or when the Chinese economy gets so bad that they realize that the killer app is to sneak out of the country with them.

Right now Bitcoins seems to be an answer in search of a problem: Most obviously capital controls in a world where capital is still largely mobile. When this situation changes, it is likely to be sudden and swift although the time frame is difficult to predict with any accuracy.

Mined coins are not that much, 3600 per day and the Chinese probably only have less than 35% share of that so thats only 1200 coins per days assuming they sell all of them every day.  

There is more belief of short traders and options sellers using leverage.

BTC3600 is not that much   that's like additional $850,000 sell pressure every single day. BTC is not that liquid to easily sustain that.

But some relief will come in 18months

The most predictable factor in bitcoin price is the supply. Halving is already factored into people's calculations of future value, just as the upcoming U.S. Marshal's auction is.

[DaRude]

If this bear market has been largely caused by Chinese miners that can do nothing with bitcoins except sell them, then it is likely to end when one of two things happen: Either they run out of stockpiled coins to sell over and above coins they are mining, or when the Chinese economy gets so bad that they realize that the killer app is to sneak out of the country with them.

Right now Bitcoins seems to be an answer in search of a problem: Most obviously capital controls in a world where capital is still largely mobile. When this situation changes, it is likely to be sudden and swift although the time frame is difficult to predict with any accuracy.

Miners aren't the ones selling in this market. It's pure speculative manipulation. A miner would never dump coins and cause the price to decline. They would sell the minimum number of coins necessary to cover costs at the best price possible and stock the rest for a much higher price.

Lets put this one to bed, miners are not dumping coins and they are certainly not doing them as a market order.

Best... Post... Recently.

Gotta agree with rolling. Miners are among the most optimistic of the bulls as a group.

It doesn't matter how optimistic miners are. Miners have to service their debt and to meet expenses just like everybody else. If you postpone selling because of a bear market, you can end up NEEDING to sell more rather than less because the price is lower, the loan payments are higher and all your other expenses remain the same.  It doesn't matter one bit if it's market orders or limit orders creating more overhead resistance.

Partially true. Miners may have to start selling at some point if they are no longer able to service debt with other income streams but a market order has a huge difference in this market compared to a limit order. A miner would NEVER dump 5k coins in single market order. It causes too much slippage and the market seems to stabilize at a lower price after a big downward movement. It's not miners causing these major movements.

If a miner has BTC20k to push he'd prob put a sell wall and if no one is biting he has to dump. On a separate note oh look there are over BTC2k on finex till 240, recall there were about that much till 250 a day ago. But at least looks like people are nibbling at 240

[rolling]

If this bear market has been largely caused by Chinese miners that can do nothing with bitcoins except sell them, then it is likely to end when one of two things happen: Either they run out of stockpiled coins to sell over and above coins they are mining, or when the Chinese economy gets so bad that they realize that the killer app is to sneak out of the country with them.

Right now Bitcoins seems to be an answer in search of a problem: Most obviously capital controls in a world where capital is still largely mobile. When this situation changes, it is likely to be sudden and swift although the time frame is difficult to predict with any accuracy.

Miners aren't the ones selling in this market. It's pure speculative manipulation. A miner would never dump coins and cause the price to decline. They would sell the minimum number of coins necessary to cover costs at the best price possible and stock the rest for a much higher price.

Lets put this one to bed, miners are not dumping coins and they are certainly not doing them as a market order.

Best... Post... Recently.

Gotta agree with rolling. Miners are among the most optimistic of the bulls as a group.

It doesn't matter how optimistic miners are. Miners have to service their debt and to meet expenses just like everybody else. If you postpone selling because of a bear market, you can end up NEEDING to sell more rather than less because the price is lower, the loan payments are higher and all your other expenses remain the same.  It doesn't matter one bit if it's market orders or limit orders creating more overhead resistance.

Partially true. Miners may have to start selling at some point if they are no longer able to service debt with other income streams but a market order has a huge difference in this market compared to a limit order. A miner would NEVER dump 5k coins in single market order. It causes too much slippage and the market seems to stabilize at a lower price after a big downward movement. It's not miners causing these major movements.

If a miner has BTC20k to push he'd prob put a sell wall and if no one is biting he has to dump. On a separate note oh look there are over BTC2k on finex till 240, recall there were about that much till 250 a day ago. But at least looks like people are nibbling at 240

A miner isn't going to dump BTC20k at a time, they are going to sell some fraction of BTC3600 per day. Even the biggest miner out there isn't selling more than a couple hundred per day. The vast majority of miners are holding. The current price is laughable. I'll say it one more time and then I'm done. The miners aren't causing the decline in price.

[samsonn25]

It would take the largest Mining Cartel a month to mine 20k coins

[billyjoeallen]

It would take the largest Mining Cartel a month to mine 20k coins

Or a big mine holding them for 14 months, waiting for the price to recover. More probably the net sum of many miners doing the same, but also speculators who need to liquidate some of their holdings for similar reasons.

[samsonn25]

It would take the largest Mining Cartel a month to mine 20k coins

Or a big mine holding them for 14 months, waiting for the price to recover. More probably the net sum of many miners doing the same, but also speculators who need to liquidate some of their holdings for similar reasons.

Unless they have triple deep pockets, im sure they have to pay back the capital expenditure, ultility (electricity a HUGE expense) company, rents and employees salary weekly or monthly.

Last Dec 2013 btc price was $640 miners who held mined coins to sell now would be f.u.b.a.r.   http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=fubar