Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[hdbuck]

Ohhhh, shhhhiiiiii...

But seriously tarmi... what is the ultimate reason for your pessimistic views on the value of bitcoin?  You have to have something figured up in your head that gives you a reasoning for your hard views.  If you're so sure that bitcoin is going to tank to $60, then please enlighten us as to why.  Especially since there are more and more businesses and companies accepting, mining, exchanging bitcoins... ?

I didn't say that it will tank to 60 $, just that it did tank to 60 after the first bubble (I think the lowest was 50), but I got in at 60. There is a great support there, btw, and I think that in the worst case scenario that support might get tested again during the final capitulation.

now, about businesses and companies accepting bitcoins, that's actually bearish cause merchants don't keep their coins. I would not worry about that anyway because nobody is actually spending the coins except for early adopters and gamblers. there is no incentive to spend them. and miners, well, they have to pay their electricity bills.

I am pessimistic because I don't see the fundamentals for a new bubble sustainable growth. the ongoing discussion about small vs big blocks shows that not even the devs and early adopters know where to go from this point with the blockchain.

ever consider hoard, sit back and relax, til' worldwide dollar/debt big ponzi scheme gets nasty?

It's a chicken and egg problem.  Without assurance that the network will scale, we have to assume it won't (until more information causes us to change our assumptions).  So worldwide economic system goes into a severe depression.  This may be inflationary or DEFLATIONARY. Without active Central Bank intervention, it will be deflationary (the money multiplier goes into reverse) meaning instead of a bunch of rapidly devaluing dollars, everybody has no dollars at all.  In that scenario, Bitcoin may be useful for evading capital controls, protection against depositor bail-ins, etc, but NOT as a hedge on non-existent inflation.

If there is runaway inflation/hyperinflation,  Bitcoin may be useful for evading PRICE controls and as an inflation hedge.

The problem is that even assuming one of these scenarios takes place (a safe assumption IMHO), the network would crash with the extra transaction load. We're not talking about a doubling of transactions. We're talking about a doubling EVERY WEEK.  Even if one of these scaling solutions is implemented,  transaction capacity could easily still be exceeded.  There is no way currently to deal with a problem of that magnitude short of removing the blocksize limit altogether.

If another cryptocoin scales better, people will be essentially forced to use it instead and they would have no reason to ever switch back because the altcoin core devs can simply copy any code improvements Bitcoin adopts to compete.  Miners who switch also would have to reason to switch back because hashpower makes a network more secure which causes demand for coins to go up which makes mining more profitable which brings in more miners and hashpower in a virtuous cycle.  Once the initiative and momentum are lost, it's lost forever. reference AOL, MySpace, etc.  

Citing coupla early internet fail of a corporations does not make your argument much better. surely by some time bitpay et al. could implode.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

It's a chicken and egg problem.  Without assurance that the network will scale, we have to assume it won't (until more information causes us to change our assumptions).  So worldwide economic system goes into a severe depression.  This may be inflationary or DEFLATIONARY. Without active Central Bank intervention, it will be deflationary (the money multiplier goes into reverse) meaning instead of a bunch of rapidly devaluing dollars, everybody has no dollars at all.  In that scenario, Bitcoin may be useful for evading capital controls, protection against depositor bail-ins, etc, but NOT as a hedge on non-existent inflation.

If there is runaway inflation/hyperinflation,  Bitcoin may be useful for evading PRICE controls and as an inflation hedge.

The problem is that even assuming one of these scenarios takes place (a safe assumption IMHO), the network would crash with the extra transaction load. We're not talking about a doubling of transactions. We're talking about a doubling EVERY WEEK.  Even if one of these scaling solutions is implemented,  transaction capacity could easily still be exceeded.  There is no way currently to deal with a problem of that magnitude short of removing the blocksize limit altogether.

If another cryptocoin scales better, people will be essentially forced to use it instead and they would have no reason to ever switch back because the altcoin core devs can simply copy any code improvements Bitcoin adopts to compete.  Miners who switch also would have to reason to switch back because hashpower makes a network more secure which causes demand for coins to go up which makes mining more profitable which brings in more miners and hashpower in a virtuous cycle.  Once the initiative and momentum are lost, it's lost forever. reference AOL, MySpace, etc.  

Citing coupla early internet fail of a corporations does not make your argument much better. surely by some time bitpay et al. could implode.

Management that is in denial and slow to react to changing situations on the ground is the issue. It's very relevant.

[hdbuck]

It's a chicken and egg problem.  Without assurance that the network will scale, we have to assume it won't (until more information causes us to change our assumptions).  So worldwide economic system goes into a severe depression.  This may be inflationary or DEFLATIONARY. Without active Central Bank intervention, it will be deflationary (the money multiplier goes into reverse) meaning instead of a bunch of rapidly devaluing dollars, everybody has no dollars at all.  In that scenario, Bitcoin may be useful for evading capital controls, protection against depositor bail-ins, etc, but NOT as a hedge on non-existent inflation.

If there is runaway inflation/hyperinflation,  Bitcoin may be useful for evading PRICE controls and as an inflation hedge.

The problem is that even assuming one of these scenarios takes place (a safe assumption IMHO), the network would crash with the extra transaction load. We're not talking about a doubling of transactions. We're talking about a doubling EVERY WEEK.  Even if one of these scaling solutions is implemented,  transaction capacity could easily still be exceeded.  There is no way currently to deal with a problem of that magnitude short of removing the blocksize limit altogether.

If another cryptocoin scales better, people will be essentially forced to use it instead and they would have no reason to ever switch back because the altcoin core devs can simply copy any code improvements Bitcoin adopts to compete.  Miners who switch also would have to reason to switch back because hashpower makes a network more secure which causes demand for coins to go up which makes mining more profitable which brings in more miners and hashpower in a virtuous cycle.  Once the initiative and momentum are lost, it's lost forever. reference AOL, MySpace, etc.  

Citing coupla early internet fail of a corporations does not make your argument much better. surely by some time bitpay et al. could implode.

Management that is in denial and slow to react to changing situations on the ground is the issue. It's very relevant.

there is no 'management' in bitcoin. only numbers and lulz.

ps: to 'protect' and 'evade', you no need nor abruptly create loads of instant-free transactions and by some biblical mainstream epiphany.

[billyjoeallen]

Whoever is running this psyops divide-and-conquer blocksize consensus attack has one of two probable motives:

1) Want Bitcoin to crash, price crashes with it, they buy up BTC for pennies and then run a counter psyops campaign to get all the core devs to group hug.

2) Want bitcoin to crash so they can introduce a competing altcoin that they've premined or have some other way of profiting from, perhaps just from being early adopters.

Bitcoin's going to crash if the blocksize isn't raised.  In the event of an economic catastrophe, nobody will care about xaction fees. they will stampede using Bitcoin as an escape from FIAT hell until the exit gets jammed with bodies.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias

[!! pop]

-With all the constructive things to be done, why do you concentrate on destruction?
-You call Bitcoin mining destruction?! With Bitcoin, a race of superior men could be developed, men whose only wants are ...electricity!
https://youtu.be/uAm-RUyPzCM?t=300
(This currency of yours isn't science -- it's black magic!)

  to easy : http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2opl7v_system-of-a-down-science-lyrics_music

OMG. Lambie is a fan of Armenian-American rock from the 90's.

So did electrobiologist Dr. John Lawrence, precognitively.

[peonminer]

Just roll up a large joint of marijuana and read Satoshi's old posts.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=3;sa=showPosts
http://p2pfoundation.ning.com/forum/topics/bitcoin-open-source


This guy was brilliant. Bitcoin is here to stay. New ideas and growth have come from it.

Such a beautiful thing.

Nice post - always nice to get a bud on the go. I hope you're right though & bitcoin is here to stay. We've wasted a lot of time, effort & money if it does fail.

I think Satoshi is Theymos It would be the perfect alibi.

[pleaseexplainagain]

It's a chicken and egg problem.  Without assurance that the network will scale, we have to assume it won't (until more information causes us to change our assumptions).  So worldwide economic system goes into a severe depression.  This may be inflationary or DEFLATIONARY. Without active Central Bank intervention, it will be deflationary (the money multiplier goes into reverse) meaning instead of a bunch of rapidly devaluing dollars, everybody has no dollars at all.  In that scenario, Bitcoin may be useful for evading capital controls, protection against depositor bail-ins, etc, but NOT as a hedge on non-existent inflation.

If there is runaway inflation/hyperinflation,  Bitcoin may be useful for evading PRICE controls and as an inflation hedge.

The problem is that even assuming one of these scenarios takes place (a safe assumption IMHO), the network would crash with the extra transaction load. We're not talking about a doubling of transactions. We're talking about a doubling EVERY WEEK.  Even if one of these scaling solutions is implemented,  transaction capacity could easily still be exceeded.  There is no way currently to deal with a problem of that magnitude short of removing the blocksize limit altogether.

If another cryptocoin scales better, people will be essentially forced to use it instead and they would have no reason to ever switch back because the altcoin core devs can simply copy any code improvements Bitcoin adopts to compete.  Miners who switch also would have to reason to switch back because hashpower makes a network more secure which causes demand for coins to go up which makes mining more profitable which brings in more miners and hashpower in a virtuous cycle.  Once the initiative and momentum are lost, it's lost forever. reference AOL, MySpace, etc.  

Citing coupla early internet fail of a corporations does not make your argument much better. surely by some time bitpay et al. could implode.

Management that is in denial and slow to react to changing situations on the ground is the issue. It's very relevant.

I think your points are spot on. The fiat system works ok until it doesnot. And its then one of the major reasons for having bitcoin comes into play. Its like overseas travel insurance - the chances of getting really sick and hospitalised are low but when they happen you need the insurance or you are stuffed. Unless we are sure how bitcoin is going to react (scale) there is concern. Its a bit like thinking you have full travel insurance when the medical clause is missing. you are only cover for losing your camera

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

-With all the constructive things to be done, why do you concentrate on destruction?
-You call Bitcoin mining destruction?! With Bitcoin, a race of superior men could be developed, men whose only wants are ...electricity!
https://youtu.be/uAm-RUyPzCM?t=300
(This currency of yours isn't science -- it's black magic!)

  to easy : http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2opl7v_system-of-a-down-science-lyrics_music

OMG. Lambie is a fan of Armenian-American rock from the 90's.

So was electro-biologist Dr. John Lawrence, precognitively.

That makes more sense

[peonminer]

A generation ago, multi-user time-sharing computer systems had a similar problem. Before strong encryption, users had to rely on password protection to secure their files, placing trust in the system administrator to keep their information private. Privacy could always be overridden by the admin based on his judgment call weighing the principle of privacy against other concerns, or at the behest of his superiors. Then strong encryption became available to the masses, and trust was no longer required. Data could be secured in a way that was physically impossible for others to access, no matter for what reason, no matter how good the excuse, no matter what.

It's time we had the same thing for money. With e-currency based on cryptographic proof, without the need to trust a third party middleman, money can be secure and transactions effortless.

Gives me chills every time.
http://p2pfoundation.ning.com/forum/topics/bitcoin-open-source

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[AlexGR]

Bitcoin's going to crash if the blocksize isn't raised. 

No, we are just gonna see a lot less dust txs.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[aminorex]

won't make 255 on this run, but will continue to trend up for 8-12 days, to a big test at 270.  fails the test.  retraces to 240, then continues up.

Seems legit.  Should make another run past 270 before any drop, though.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

just saw 800 coins bought on bitfinex in 4 orders that werent shown in the orderbook. buys were for solid amounts, 100, 200, 200, 290... all filled at one exact price, no slippage at all...

very strange...

Yeah, I saw that too. Business transactions aren't being allowed to move the price at all. Small transactions from private individuals aren't enough to go "to the moon" as they say. When Karpeles moved the price he did it by manipulating 10's of thousands of btc at once. When are individuals ever going to do that?

For better or worse, they need to allow the currently off book transactions to move the price.

YOu are full of conspiracies today, including repeating, nearly at nauseum your Gox Bot myth.

Gox bot myth?  BTW you spelled bot as Bot. 

Yes, that's right.  The gox bot is a bit of a myth... to give it so much credit for the rise in the price of BTC in 2013...   

It may have contributed to the rise in the price, but there were plenty of other things going on as well.

[JayJuanGee]

... Gox Bot myth.

Savvy investors agree:

...
I'm NOT joking.  I bought my first Bitcoin at that price - $1,201.35.  Actually to be more specific, I bought it on November 29, 2013 through a person I met through local bitcoins.  I bought in cash 1.2486 BTC for $1,500 USD.

That would make anyone cringe now thinking back on it... but hopefully with more of the "bullish" news coming out that the Chinese government might make bitcoin less restricted over there, and the fact that the halving is coming next year; we'll see a steady increase from here on out.  So hopefully JayJuanGee can make his money back if he hasn't already dumped his coins yet and holding on to them for better days ahead.

Hahahahahah...

Thank you for your concern about my making my money back, but I am stating a fact while at the same time, I am NOT too concerned about that 1.2486 BTC that I bought, since my average price per BTC is currently below $500 and I have a real decent stash of BTC and other investments, so I am o.k... and NOT in any way to be considered a BTC victim....