My guess for the cause of the rally is still Mainland Chinese non-bitcoiners buying bitcoin to use in the MMM ponzi.
do you have any idea how much money china plans on dumping into various ponzis?
No idea; but there are many Chinese with money, and they seem to be at least as susceptibe to ponzis as any other people in the world. Serge's previous ponzis in Russia moved billions of dollars, and a repeat seems quite possible.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MMM_(Ponzi_scheme_company)
By different estimates from 5 to 40 million people lost up to $10 billion. The exact figures are not known even to the founders. [ ... ] At its peak the company was taking in more than $50 million each day from the sale of its shares to the public. Thus, the cashflow turnover at the MMM central office in Moscow was so high that it could not be estimated. The management started to count money in roomfuls (1 roomful of money, 2 roomfuls of money, etc.).[ citation needed ] [ ... ] The success of MMM in attracting investors led to the creation of other similar companies, including Tibet, Chara, Khoper-Invest, Selenga, Telemarket, and Germes. All of these companies were characterised by aggressive television advertising and extremely high promised rates of return. One company promised annual returns of 30,000%.[ citation needed ] On July 22, 1994, the police closed the offices of MMM for tax evasion. [ ... ] MMM itself owed between $50 million to $1.5 billion [ of taxes ]. In the aftermath at least 50 investors, having lost all of their money, committed suicide.[ citation needed ]
IF the Chinese government decides to stop MMM and any other bitcoin ponzi(s), it could easily close the exchanges and criminalize the trade of bitcoin, including Localbitcoins type markets. It will not stop "black market" trade, but most would-be ponzi victims are unlikely to resort to it.
However, governments generally avoid stopping a ponzi while it is in full rally phase. If a government did that, millions of victims would blame it, rather than the ponzi operators, for their losses. (Apparently, that is the discourse that Sergei used to get elected to the Duma by his victims. And may have been also the argument that James Ray "Silver King" Houston, father of BFL's Sonny Vleisides, used to convince the jurors who absolved him.) If a government fails to stop a ponzi right at the start, it usually waits for the ponzi to collapse on its own.
Black Friday is an event, poeple log into there wallets, maybe buy a few bitcoins maybe sell and then buy and then buy a gift? it most definitely has an effect on traders psychology too
It may have an effect, but (AFAIK) it is mostly a US and Canada tradition, not significant in China; and the volume at Bitstamp is actually lower today than in their best days of 2015.
There was no significant price move on Black Friday 2014, so its impact on bitcoin buying then was not significant. Several signs point to a general decline of bitcoin use for e-shopping over the last 12-18 months. So I would expect even
less spending (hence less impact on price) on this Black Friday than on the previous one.
Poll
