Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[shorts will be homeless]

If Black Friday was responsible for the "sub-rally" of the last 2-3 days, perhaps it is because of this offer from PrimeDice? 

Deposit at least 1 BTC and receive 1 BTC for FREE

How could this be for real?  Could they be planning an exit scam?

such a dumb fud attempt, lol. anyone with any basic knowledge of gambling site promos understands what a rollover requirement is for a bonus. you have to bet the amount deposited many many times over before you are eligible for the bonus.

As others have pointed out, that is a fake PrimeDice site. (Are you shilling for them, perchance?)  If you had bothered to check their conditions, you would have seen that they require only 5 bets of 0.5 BTC -- way too little for a honest site to recover the gift via the house cut or fees.  So it may have attracted many unwary victims...

simply didnt think you were stupid enough to put up a link to a fake website. i overestimated you, wont happen again. meanwhile you are ignoring the elephant in the room which is why have you wasted so many hours of your life with something you hate and how will you repair what is left of your life and better spend the little time you have left on this planet. i guess it really is a bull market when the permabears accuse bulls of being paid shills. bears certainly called you a paid shill during the bear market. thanks for turning the tables.

[marcus_of_augustus]

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/bw-to-launch-nm-chip-and-miner-for-general-population-1445278227

... commodity mining ASIC chips are finally coming to market after 2 years of in-house tech. development (and associated in-house mining).

We are going back to the original GPU-CPU days economics and BTC pricing model once these become commonplace on shop shelves.

[Hyperjacked]

looks like the "gold and silver is surging" bs got put where it belonged gold down $15.00 silver down .18 ... and while all commodities are SURGING DOWNWARDS due to usd strength, bitcoin pumps upwards.

I'm just livin da dream with my oil and gold shorts and my btc 380 call at 330!


Disclaimer:please don't leverage on this post...

[Hyperjacked]

If Black Friday was responsible for the "sub-rally" of the last 2-3 days, perhaps it is because of this offer from PrimeDice? 

Deposit at least 1 BTC and receive 1 BTC for FREE

How could this be for real?  Could they be planning an exit scam?

such a dumb fud attempt, lol. anyone with any basic knowledge of gambling site promos understands what a rollover requirement is for a bonus. you have to bet the amount deposited many many times over before you are eligible for the bonus.

As others have pointed out, that is a fake PrimeDice site. (Are you shilling for them, perchance?)  If you had bothered to check their conditions, you would have seen that they require only 5 bets of 0.5 BTC -- way too little for a honest site to recover the gift via the house cut or fees.  So it may have attracted many unwary victims...

simply didnt think you were stupid enough to put up a link to a fake website. i overestimated you, wont happen again. meanwhile you are ignoring the elephant in the room which is why have you wasted so many hours of your life with something you hate and how will you repair what is left of your life and better spend the little time you have left on this planet. i guess it really is a bull market when the permabears accuse bulls of being paid shills. bears certainly called you a paid shill during the bear market. thanks for turning the tables.

Thanks for the newbie honors...

[marcus_of_augustus]

http://bitcoinclock.com/

bitcoin cost of production doubles on or around 23.07.2016 ... the floor price will get raised in proportion, one way or another.

Bitcoin cost of production just went up 10.44% on the 24th, and will go up by 12.18% in just 9 days. That's almost half of what the block reward halving will do

@shorts will be homeless: stop being such a rude faggot.

difficulty and average (network-wide) cost of production is not directly related, but it is closely related ... tech. advances and cost of tech. development come into it also.

Given the same specific processor hardware, yes, cost of production and difficulty are directly related.

[marcus_of_augustus]

According to BW, each 14nm chip in the miner will be able to attain anywhere from 34.6-63GH/s. The power consumption is 18W based on a voltage of 0.59V to 0.76V. This efficiency comes on the back of nearly a year of research and development.

Why is this important? 14nm is state of the art fabrication technology, ever since the ASIC arms race began btc mining chips have been using old fabrication technology, now they have reached 14nm it means we will plateau in advancement at the same rate as other processor chips ... or who knows maybe bitcoin mining ASIC fabrication will begin to lead the world in processor fabrication R&D generally ... and that would be a notable benefit that bitcoin tech. has brought to the world, funding and incentivising R&D for general processor fabrication tech.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[AlexGR]

Why is this important? 14nm is state of the art fabrication technology, ever since the ASIC arms race began btc mining chips have been using old fabrication technology, now they have reached 14nm it means we will plateau in advancement at the same rate as other processor chips ...

The situation with various chips claiming 28-22-20-14nm is that this is not a very "precise" measurement. For example, some components of a chip might be 28nm and some others might be 14nm. There's quite a bit of misleading practices going around with nanometer labeling.

Ideally, detailed specs would be like:

Component A of the chip is: X nm
Component B of the chip is: Y nm
Component C of the chip is: Z nm

Until then you could have a very "stretched" specification based on a single aspect of the chip.

[DaRude]

http://bitcoinclock.com/

bitcoin cost of production doubles on or around 23.07.2016 ... the floor price will get raised in proportion, one way or another.

Bitcoin cost of production just went up 10.44% on the 24th, and will go up by 12.18% in just 9 days. That's almost half of what the block reward halving will do

@shorts will be homeless: stop being such a rude faggot.

difficulty and average (network-wide) cost of production is not directly related, but it is closely related ... tech. advances and cost of tech. development come into it also.

Given the same specific processor hardware, yes, cost of production and difficulty are directly related.

Reward halving  is no different from doubling hashrate. If you disagree, feel free to explain the difference.

@shorts will be homeless: Remember making you my bitch a while ago. I see you still haven't taken that coke bottle out of your ass, why is that?

For real?? Didn't ignore this nick yet but let me entertain this.
Halving = supply is reduced by half, thus with constant demand basic laws of economics suggest upward pressure.
Doubling hashrate=improvement in technology and has no effect on supply of BTC whatsoever. Any more Qs?

[JayJuanGee]

The pattern of volume at Bitfinex over the last year is similar to that of Bitstamp.  Namely, the volume during the "sub-rally" of the last 2-3 days is above average, but still much less than the peak of early Novermber, and comparable to the volume seen several times during 2015.. 

What the fuck matters regarding some alleged similar volume pattern when for one, they are two years removed from each other.. and bitfinex allows some creative low fee arrangements and bitfinex also allows quite a variety of marginal betting... which in the end becomes a BIG ... SO WhAT?   Apples and Oranges.

Sorry, I am talking about 2015 exclusively there; "November" is Nov/2015 not Nov/2013.

My proposal is that the rise from $220 to the almost-stable $330 level in the last 3 months was due to the MMM ponzi and copycats in China. It was definitely pulled by OKCoin and Huobi, who saw a huge increase in daily trade volume (10x their records before Sep/2015, including the levels during the Nov/2013 rally). Whereas Bitstamp and Bitfinex saw a much more modest increase in volume, that barely reached the levels seen in several previous occasions (such as Jul/2015 and Feb/2015).

As for the mini-rally of the last 3 days, from $320 to $360, I don't think that it can be explained by Bitcoin Black Friday sales (unless it was the PrimeDice offer above).  BBF 2014 had no influence on the price, and this one seems to have been a flop.

If bitcoiners are expecting the price to go up further, they should buy and hold rather than buy to spend, even with "20% off" offers.  Only early adopters who bought well below the current $350 price may think that it is a good time to take profits.  So BBF may actually have a negative effect on the price...

Fair enough explanation, even though your theories continue to seem to be quite a stretch to be taking some small happening and to give it undue weight.


Regarding spending BTC for discounts, I believe that anyone who has any semblance of knowledge regarding basic accounting facts should understand and recognize that if his/her intention is to support the BTC infrastructure, then s/he needs to do more than merely spend bitcoin... and in that regard, spending and replacing is  a much better practice in order to also use BTC as an investment and attempt to prop BTC prices, to whatever small degree is possible through individual spending actions.

[Meuh6879]

You mean losing most of your money is a small price to pay for learning how to lose most of your money?

i don't loose anything ... that the difference between FIAT money and BITCOIN unit.

i know the goal of inflation ... and the loose of value of my FIAT money (in 1 year, 1 USD = 1 EUR ... ?!? What a complet joke and loose of worked hour value !)

but like i already say, you don't see the whole picture of Bitcoin system.

[JayJuanGee]

You don't really seem to give up with your coming up with various FUD offerings.

Why FUD?  I think that the MMM ponzi could lift the price to $1200 and beyond (or not). Otherwise, I don't see where else you are going to find enough fresh demand for bitcoins to do that.

Your theory would be a whole hell-of-a lot more interesting if you were invested in a material way in Bitcoin, one way or another, rather than contributing with your supposed detached analysis. 

One does not need to stand in the rain to be a competent meteorlogist. 

1st:  you seem to be attempting to minimize a variety of BTC uses and investment efforts when you simplify the price dynamics of bitcoin.  Also, you well know that if your stupid ass theory were true, such truth would cause a lot more instability, volatility and uncertainty in bitcoin's price, which is really an inadequate explanation for BTC recent price actions.


2nd:  you are not a meteorologist, but you may get a better idea about certain aspects of the weather if you experience some of those aspects.  This is a bitcoin forum, and I stand by my earlier comment that your non-involved observations are rather tedious.. not only because of your lack of experience but also because for a lot of us it seems that you are vested in some kind of negative agenda that is really not very helpful in the whole scheme of things - like a busy body neighbor or someone who is a nuisance.  have you ever heard about the civil cause of action "tortious interference."  You are likely guilty of such a claim, and if the universe were moral, you would owe damages to the members of the forum for your tortious conduct.   

[marcus_of_augustus]

Reward halving  is no different from doubling hashrate.

They are different things ... one is the reward halving, the other is the difficulty doubling (you erroneously said hashrate and hashrate and difficulty are not instantaneously equivalent either).

As I said they are related but not identical, assuming we are both speaking to how they both relate to cost of production calculations.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Why is this important? 14nm is state of the art fabrication technology, ever since the ASIC arms race began btc mining chips have been using old fabrication technology, now they have reached 14nm it means we will plateau in advancement at the same rate as other processor chips ...

The situation with various chips claiming 28-22-20-14nm is that this is not a very "precise" measurement. For example, some components of a chip might be 28nm and some others might be 14nm. There's quite a bit of misleading practices going around with nanometer labeling.

Ideally, detailed specs would be like:

Component A of the chip is: X nm
Component B of the chip is: Y nm
Component C of the chip is: Z nm

Until then you could have a very "stretched" specification based on a single aspect of the chip.

Yes, good points. General point still stands though I think, the tech. advance in ASIC chips is plateauing at the current level of state-of-the-art fab. processes, or will be in the near future (12-18 months), and this will lead to more "commoditization" of mining chips.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

You mean losing most of your money is a small price to pay for learning how to lose most of your money?

i don't loose anything ... that the difference between FIAT money and BITCOIN unit.

i know the goal of inflation ... and the loose of value of my FIAT money (in 1 year, 1 USD = 1 EUR ... ?!? What a complet joke and loose of worked hour value !)

but like i already say, you don't see the whole picture of Bitcoin system.

>i don't loose anything
That's a good way to look at it. That way, not a single person who 'invested' in bitcoin any shitcoin has lost anything, even when the value of their shitcoin of choice finally hit 0 (zero). They still have the exact same number of shitcoins that they bought.
Lucky them

>the loose of value of my FIAT money
Protip: money is not meant to be an investment. Sure, iit's a meant as a [short-term] store of value, but mainly as a medium of exchange. In short, money is meant "to be used."
On the other hand, it's also not meant to lose most of its value in just a couple of years, Like BTC did. Heck, it just dropped ~ 8 bucks in the past couple of hours, which is also shit.

>the whole picture
As I said, been around bitcoin far longer than you, and would like to say "I probably sold you your first coin," just to be a dick & rub it in.
That would be lying tho, which I try not to do, not unless I really have to. Lying because I was mostly out of BTC by the time you jumped in

You do seem to be a "dick" or at least attempting to appear as if you have some superior point of view or outlook regarding bitcoin, which in the end comes off as patronizing.

If you are bearish about bitcoin, then good for you.  There are various avenues for shorting or just choosing not to invest in BTC or to invest in other things...

I doubt that any of us really can predict with very much accuracy whether that is short or long term, but we can brainstorm about various thoughts and predictions to possibly help us in our own considerations regarding the extent to which we are invested in one thing or another or whether we should diversify more than we are.  Currently I consider that I have about 10% of my quasi-liquid assets in BTC, and surely that number may need to be reassessed from time to time.... and maybe even some actions may need to be taken from time to time because bitcoin does seem to have considerable volatility which may cause a lot of rethinking and/or introspection and perspective.

[Richy_T]

http://bitcoinclock.com/

bitcoin cost of production doubles on or around 23.07.2016 ... the floor price will get raised in proportion, one way or another.

Bitcoin cost of production just went up 10.44% on the 24th, and will go up by 12.18% in just 9 days. That's almost half of what the block reward halving will do

@shorts will be homeless: stop being such a rude faggot.

More complicated than that. Increasing miner efficiency mitigates that but then there's the cost of upgrading miners to stay in the game...

Also more complicated than saying that the cost of production doubles come the halving. That is not really the same as the reward halving.

Fun & games ahead...

[Richy_T]

We are going back to the original GPU-CPU days economics and BTC pricing model once these become commonplace on shop shelves.

Sadly not. The thing with CPU and, to an extend GPU mining was that they were being produced and sold for general use and the prices were not reflective of their being used for Bitcoin mining (though possibly on the gray market). ASICs have very much been priced according to the idea that manufacturers want a chunk of that sweet, sweet profit and so have been much, much less attractive to the general public. Now that competition is increasing, we may see that wain a little but it will still be a ways away from being dirt cheap.

[peonminer]

If Black Friday was responsible for the "sub-rally" of the last 2-3 days, perhaps it is because of this offer from PrimeDice? 

Deposit at least 1 BTC and receive 1 BTC for FREE

How could this be for real?  Could they be planning an exit scam?

It's a scam site, not the real primedice.

Bitcoinblackfriday.info is trying to scam people by posting links to fake sites with incredible offers. The links look almost like the real versions, but they have slight differences. There are scam site links mixed together with legit site links to make the scam ones harder to spot.

Theymos has posted a warning about the bitcoinblackfriday.info scam in one of the bitcointalk advertising banners.

I didn't follow their announcements etc. so I don't know much about them. But just by looking at 5 of their top 8 ads:

deals.bitcoinblackfriday.info/offer/primedice-deposit-at-least-1-btc-and-receive-1-btc-for-free/
links to primedice.io instead of https://primedice.com

deals.bitcoinblackfriday.info/offer/trezor-the-hardware-bitcoin-wallet/
links to buy-trezor.com instead of http://buytrezor.com

deals.bitcoinblackfriday.info/offer/spondoolies-tech-sp50/
links to sqondoolies-tech.com instead of http://www.spondoolies-tech.com

deals.bitcoinblackfriday.info/offer/gyft-25-discount-for-all-gift-cards/
links to appgyft.com instead of https://app.gyft.com

Obvious scam is obvious.

Owner at forums: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=525055

Thanks!

Thanks for the warning. There are legit sites there too.

Hey scammer scumbag, you're a waste of human flesh. 

[Richy_T]

Yeah, tons of variables, too many for me, I conceded that.

Noted. I had not caught up when I made my post. However, some of those variables are important.

The major difference is that increases in hashrate come about because miners, rightly or wrongly, judge that it's in their best interest to increase their hashing capacity. The halving is an an external action, decided by a slightly bemused older gentleman who likes to play with trains.

The major difference, however is to the external market which, as one of your alter egos recently mentioned is accustomed to an inflation rate somewhere in the order of 10% p.a. which will suddenly drop to approx 5% p.a.

In miners' terms, you are broadly correct though. Bitcoins don't suddenly become more expensive. It simply becomes less profitable to mine and for a lot of miners, that means switching off which makes Bitcoin cheaper for the remaining miners. If 10% profit were acceptable now, 10% profit will be acceptable then.

As you say though, tons of variables. Many of which will depend on current price, advances in mining, early pricing in, how much miners will be willing to eat a loss until the next difficulty adjustment, the color of Obama's boxers and many more. They're all important though.