Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[fisheater22]

Satoshi talked about smallish consumer transactions like vending machines and porn. Did he fall into a math hole??

Can you quote a Satoshi post where he talks about porn?

Most of his posts were about technical things, and I didn't think he would talk about anything else. I haven't read all his posts, but enough of them to know the technical talk in them goes way over my head.

Not satoshi, but it's like the guy could see the future!

Not that i would approve (necessarilly), but illegal porn services would probably the ones to be more sucessfull with offering payments in bitcoins, much safer than credit cards that are used all the time to trace customers of illegal porn services.

With law enforcement going after online sex trafficking of minors with a vengeance, Bitcoin virtual currency is becoming the preferred coin of the realm for the sex industry.

[bambou]

I think the price is not heading to the 500 level this year
Let's wait and see what will happen in 2016

Voice of reason.

[Fatman3001]

Well, I never really wanted to buy coffee with bitcoins anyway. I don't even drink coffee.

Is this relevant?

Pepsi or Coca Cola?

Edit:

We're fucked

[peonminer]

Well, I never really wanted to buy coffee with bitcoins anyway. I don't even drink coffee.

Is this relevant?

Pepsi or Coca Cola?

Edit:

We're fucked

[JayJuanGee]

Follow the weekly Bitstamp chart. If it closes green for 6 times in a row, we are on bubble territory (currently 4 consecutive weekly greens). If we instead end this week in red, there is nothing to worry.

IF we get 6 greens, this means we can go on for a long time still but watch for a blowoff top and trade accordingly.

The methodology worked perfect in the latest 500 spike, and you can easily check a very good match with all previous bubbles as well.

First TERA and now Risto- we're getting the band back together!

no better indicator of a bull market than old-timers becoming active again

Hold on there, Pardner.  Don't confuse cause and effect. All that means is the price is higher.  The bull market isn't really back until the ATH is topped.  That won't happen without a scaling fix because long before we get to four digits, we'll slam into the 1MB blocksize limit.  

When the blocks are totally full, the fees could go up 100X what they are now because there is only enough capacity for ~600,000 transactions per day.  That's it, no matter how high the fees go, there won't be enough capacity for each of us to have even one xation/day each. NO MATTER HOW HIGH THE FEES GO.

You don't wait until the snow starts falling before you start chopping firewood. It's coming.

We will see. I am not so pessimistic about the issue of scaling. Guess I simply have more faith in the ability of decentralized systems to provide adequate answers for problems posed by the environment. Might also mean I'm more naive.

For the time being I see price catching up with development of infrastructure and I'm cheering from the sidelines.

And to be honest I feel like bull markets in Bitcoin started well before breaching the old ATH - that's just when they started to go crazy parabolic and made a new ATH within 2 months.

Did you misspeak, ED?   

how could any of us be "cheering from the sidelines" if we have been involved in this Bitcointalk forum thread for more than a few months? 

Don't tell me that jorge took over your account for you to have devolved into an "academic interest in bitcoin?"   

[JayJuanGee]

Wait, so we're below 440 AGAIN?
How is this possible?!

You are a fucking goofball prophet, and each of your posts bring further supporting evidence of such a reasonable conclusion.
 

FTFY

... That said, i'd be shitting myself right about now if i was leveraged long...

Will 450 hold?

Wait, so we're below 440 AGAIN?
How is this possible?!

Yep...  thanks for providing further evidence to support my earlier point.   

Only goofballs possess an irresistible urge to brag about stupid shit including their stupid ass BTC price movement predictions, as if they are some kind of "prophet."  Get a life... oh, sorry, I forgot that you feel better if you were to receive some kind of direct recognition ...

good job, Fisheater22, you are so wonderful!!!!! 






















































 


NOT

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[ErisDiscordia]

Follow the weekly Bitstamp chart. If it closes green for 6 times in a row, we are on bubble territory (currently 4 consecutive weekly greens). If we instead end this week in red, there is nothing to worry.

IF we get 6 greens, this means we can go on for a long time still but watch for a blowoff top and trade accordingly.

The methodology worked perfect in the latest 500 spike, and you can easily check a very good match with all previous bubbles as well.

First TERA and now Risto- we're getting the band back together!

no better indicator of a bull market than old-timers becoming active again

Hold on there, Pardner.  Don't confuse cause and effect. All that means is the price is higher.  The bull market isn't really back until the ATH is topped.  That won't happen without a scaling fix because long before we get to four digits, we'll slam into the 1MB blocksize limit.  

When the blocks are totally full, the fees could go up 100X what they are now because there is only enough capacity for ~600,000 transactions per day.  That's it, no matter how high the fees go, there won't be enough capacity for each of us to have even one xation/day each. NO MATTER HOW HIGH THE FEES GO.

You don't wait until the snow starts falling before you start chopping firewood. It's coming.

We will see. I am not so pessimistic about the issue of scaling. Guess I simply have more faith in the ability of decentralized systems to provide adequate answers for problems posed by the environment. Might also mean I'm more naive.

For the time being I see price catching up with development of infrastructure and I'm cheering from the sidelines.

And to be honest I feel like bull markets in Bitcoin started well before breaching the old ATH - that's just when they started to go crazy parabolic and made a new ATH within 2 months.

Did you misspeak, ED?  

how could any of us be "cheering from the sidelines" if we have been involved in this Bitcointalk forum thread for more than a few months?  

Don't tell me that jorge took over your account for you to have devolved into an "academic interest in bitcoin?"    

Don't worry, if you ever need another explanation why the government & state suck I'm here for you It's just that I don't do much besides hodling and derping around on the forums.

Well I did get a lot of people into Bitcoin so there's that. But sidelines it is. First row. With popcorn. Actually screw the popcorn give me beer.

[billyjoeallen]

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

We're going to see a noticeable slowdown in confirmation times or a noticeable increase in fees by the time we hit 300,000 Transactions/day. By the time we hit 400,000 TPD,  This slowdown or fee increase will be dramatic and with current code, 500,000 may not even be possible.

With high fees and/or slow confirmations, MOST of the current business models of the major bitcoin companies (Coinbase, Circle, 21, Bitpay etc) will be unworkable. 

There isn't anything close to a consensus on anyway to fix this. There isn't even a consensus that it needs to be fixed. 

Expecting Bitcoin to rally into four or even five digits before the scaling problem is corrected is like expecting a Boeing 777 to take off in your driveway. We're gonna run out of road before we get above stalling speed.

[peonminer]

Wait, so we're below 440 AGAIN?
How is this possible?!

You are a fucking goofball prophet, and each of your posts bring further supporting evidence of such a reasonable conclusion.
 

FTFY

... That said, i'd be shitting myself right about now if i was leveraged long your prophet...

[AlexGR]

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

We're going to see a noticeable slowdown in confirmation times or a noticeable increase in fees by the time we hit 300,000 Transactions/day. By the time we hit 400,000 TPD,  This slowdown or fee increase will be dramatic and with current code, 500,000 may not even be possible.

With high fees and/or slow confirmations, MOST of the current business models of the major bitcoin companies (Coinbase, Circle, 21, Bitpay etc) will be unworkable.  

There isn't anything close to a consensus on anyway to fix this. There isn't even a consensus that it needs to be fixed.  

Expecting Bitcoin to rally into four or even five digits before the scaling problem is corrected is like expecting a Boeing 777 to take off in your driveway. We're gonna run out of road before we get above stalling speed.

You are using a chart that has a hidden story behind it and pretend like that story doesn't even exist.

The hidden story is that most of the transactions there are bogus, spam, dust, very low to no-fee, etc.

So to get the true representation you must know the ratio of normal transactions vs the spam/dust transactions within the capacity limit.

What will actually happen is that the ratio of the quality of txs will shift internally, within the prescribed limit. So if you have something like half a million of txs per day as a limit, and you currently have just 100k normal transactions per day (with the other 100-150k being bogus/spam/dust), then you have a 5x margin to hit the actual limit, when dust/spam/attacks are priced out and become uneconomical to execute.

If you are always considering dust/spam/bogus/attack txs to be the same in quality, then you could have an increase to 2MB tomorrow morning and by tomorrow evening someone could be filling the extra mb with "stress test" junk txs. That would prove what? That "Bitcoin is at its limit"? Just because someone has filled the new TPD limit with another 500k bogus transactions? No. It would only prove that if your block size supply is much larger than block size demand, then you can have plenty of free riders in that space. And those free riders will be using that space irresponsibly. Why not, anyway, since they aren't paying much for doing so...

[gotmilk_]

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

We're going to see a noticeable slowdown in confirmation times or a noticeable increase in fees by the time we hit 300,000 Transactions/day. By the time we hit 400,000 TPD,  This slowdown or fee increase will be dramatic and with current code, 500,000 may not even be possible.

With high fees and/or slow confirmations, MOST of the current business models of the major bitcoin companies (Coinbase, Circle, 21, Bitpay etc) will be unworkable. 

There isn't anything close to a consensus on anyway to fix this. There isn't even a consensus that it needs to be fixed. 

Expecting Bitcoin to rally into four or even five digits before the scaling problem is corrected is like expecting a Boeing 777 to take off in your driveway. We're gonna run out of road before we get above stalling speed.

Majority of the industry already decided what they will do.

[Cconvert2G36]

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

We're going to see a noticeable slowdown in confirmation times or a noticeable increase in fees by the time we hit 300,000 Transactions/day. By the time we hit 400,000 TPD,  This slowdown or fee increase will be dramatic and with current code, 500,000 may not even be possible.

With high fees and/or slow confirmations, MOST of the current business models of the major bitcoin companies (Coinbase, Circle, 21, Bitpay etc) will be unworkable.  

There isn't anything close to a consensus on anyway to fix this. There isn't even a consensus that it needs to be fixed.  

Expecting Bitcoin to rally into four or even five digits before the scaling problem is corrected is like expecting a Boeing 777 to take off in your driveway. We're gonna run out of road before we get above stalling speed.

You are using a chart that has a hidden story behind it and pretend like that story doesn't even exist.

The hidden story is that most of the transactions there are bogus, spam, dust, very low to no-fee, etc.

So to get the true representation you must know the ratio of normal transactions vs the spam/dust transactions within the capacity limit.

What will actually happen is that the ratio of the quality of txs will shift internally, within the prescribed limit. So if you have something like half a million of txs per day as a limit, and you currently have just 100k normal transactions per day (with the other 100-150k being bogus/spam/dust), then you have a 5x margin to hit the actual limit, when dust/spam/attacks are priced out and become uneconomical to execute.

If you are always considering dust/spam/bogus/attack txs to be the same in quality, then you could have an increase to 2MB tomorrow morning and by tomorrow evening someone could be filling the extra mb with "stress test" junk txs. That would prove what? That "Bitcoin is at its limit"? Just because someone has filled the new TPD limit with another 500k bogus transactions? No. It would only prove that if your block size supply is much larger than block size demand, then you can have plenty of free riders in that space. And those free riders will be using that space irresponsibly. Why not, anyway, since they aren't paying much for doing so...

Perhaps after being priced out of using Bitcoin these nefarious spammers (that have had us bumping against the 1MB limit for years now) will use Darkcoin or Dash Cash, frightening eh?

[fisheater22]

I do what I want!

Thou hast also committed fornication with the Egyptians thy neighbours, great of flesh;
and hast increased thy whoredoms, to provoke me to anger.
...
Thou hast played the whore also with the Assyrians, because thou wast unsatiable;
yea, thou hast played the harlot with them, and yet couldest not be satisfied.
Thou hast moreover multiplied thy fornication in the land of Canaan unto Chaldea;
and yet thou wast not satisfied herewith.--Ezekiel 16:26
Stop craving the D, you slut!

[billyjoeallen]

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

We're going to see a noticeable slowdown in confirmation times or a noticeable increase in fees by the time we hit 300,000 Transactions/day. By the time we hit 400,000 TPD,  This slowdown or fee increase will be dramatic and with current code, 500,000 may not even be possible.

With high fees and/or slow confirmations, MOST of the current business models of the major bitcoin companies (Coinbase, Circle, 21, Bitpay etc) will be unworkable.  

There isn't anything close to a consensus on anyway to fix this. There isn't even a consensus that it needs to be fixed.  

Expecting Bitcoin to rally into four or even five digits before the scaling problem is corrected is like expecting a Boeing 777 to take off in your driveway. We're gonna run out of road before we get above stalling speed.

You are using a chart that has a hidden story behind it and pretend like that story doesn't even exist.

The hidden story is that most of the transactions there are bogus, spam, dust, very low to no-fee, etc.

So to get the true representation you must know the ratio of normal transactions vs the spam/dust transactions within the capacity limit.

What will actually happen is that the ratio of the quality of txs will shift internally, within the prescribed limit. So if you have something like half a million of txs per day as a limit, and you currently have just 100k normal transactions per day (with the other 100-150k being bogus/spam/dust), then you have a 5x margin to hit the actual limit, when dust/spam/attacks are priced out and become uneconomical to execute.

If you are always considering dust/spam/bogus/attack txs to be the same in quality, then you could have an increase to 2MB tomorrow morning and by tomorrow evening someone could be filling the extra mb with "stress test" junk txs. That would prove what? That "Bitcoin is at its limit"? Just because someone has filled the new TPD limit with another 500k bogus transactions? No. It would only prove that if your block size supply is much larger than block size demand, then you can have plenty of free riders in that space. And those free riders will be using that space irresponsibly. Why not, anyway, since they aren't paying much for doing so...

Are you paying attention to yourself?  If we have a limit of 500K TPD, then that means there are really less than a million actual bitcoiners out there after six fucking years. All of the promise of smartcontracts, colored coins for equities and derivitives trading, title transfers, timestamps, banking the unbanked, it's all bullshit. You think those small xactions are garbage/dust, but you have no idea what they mean to the people involved.

I believe that the current market price reflects the discounted potential future value of bitcoin's use as the internet of money, not just some settlement system for digital gold. That's a huge difference in potential and I don't think the market has priced that in yet. I think most speculators believe this issue will be resolved before it becomes a major problem, but people like you convince me that it's not true. As long as you're being taken seriously, then you represent a threat that I have to take seriously.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[peonminer]

[adamstgBit]

[klee]

We may drop but China won't stop buying. They have many reasons to continue doing so.

I expect worst case scenario a dump at 365 area, best case 435 area.

(If we indeed drop).

I shorted at 464 with a stop at 468.

Cause PnF TA does not work...

[AlexGR]

Are you paying attention to yourself?  If we have a limit of 500K TPD, then that means there are really less than a million actual bitcoiners out there after six fucking years.

Bitcoin got mainstream attention around 2013. So the first 4 years were a bunch of nerds.

All of the promise of smartcontracts, colored coins for equities and derivitives trading, title transfers, timestamps, banking the unbanked, it's all bullshit. You think those small xactions are garbage/dust, but you have no idea what they mean to the people involved.

It's not bullshit. They can be served by the Bitcoin technology, perhaps in other blockchains. It's not necessary to have everything in just one blockchain. From what I've read I never got the impression that Satoshi was envisioning putting all kind of crap into the blockchain.

I believe that the current market price reflects the discounted potential future value of bitcoin's use as the internet of money, not just some settlement system for digital gold.

Since the scaling debate got larger with the XT fork drama, and especially after XT got no traction, price has gone up significantly. Most people (obviously not you) trust the the core devs will do the things that are right for the future of bitcoin. If there is a problem, they'll fix it or find a solution. They work their ass off to maintain it, evolve it, make it faster and allow it to scale better. It is illogical to even propose that they want to purposefully bury it and cripple it, so that years worth of work will go down the drain. If they have a disagreement, and if the matter isn't pressing (and in this case IT ISN'T, since 1MB blocks get full with junk), they can sort it out through dialogue and consensus.

That's a huge difference in potential and I don't think the market has priced that in yet. I think most speculators believe this issue will be resolved before it becomes a major problem

That's the consensus, yes. Even the core devs have coins or vested interest in BTC. Why would they want their "child" to go down or be problematic? So far they are doing a pretty good job of maintaining order and introducing improvements, while also not breaking consensus. That's not as easy as it sounds.