Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[smooth]

Even more: Adam once claimed that the LN would achieve 10'000 transactions for every blockchain transaction.  Leaving aside what that would mean for the coin lock-in periods of the channels, the rate of 1:10'000 is so close to 0:10'000 that no one would notice if the LN just dropped bitcoin altogether, and from then on just shuffled its "cryptochecks" around indefinitely, without ever settling them. 

Of course, LN users would never accept that.  It would be like that time when the US government decided that dollars would no longer be convertible to gold or silver.  We all remember the revolts in the streets, and the huge bonfires where enraged dollar holders burned their then-worthless bills.  Right?

Conversely 1:10000 is so close to 0:10000 that you might as well just leave it on the Bitcoin blockchain. The benefit of not doing so would be negligible.

I don't follow, smooth. Are you being sarcastic?

Not at all. JorgeStolfi was saying that if you settle to the Bitcoin blockchain only 1/10000 of your tx then you might as well not do it at all and use a fiat LN system. I'm saying that at 1/10000 of your tx, the cost of using real Bitcoin (even with, hypothetically, expensive BTC transactions) would be so low there is no reason not to just stay with Bitcoin. I don't think people will want fiat LN.

[Andre#]

There's no entitlement that I can produce all kind of spam and they have to be included in one or a few blocks (for peanuts).

Guess what, there's no kind of requirement of that for miners either. Even with no block size limit at all. So moot point.

You pay the fee, you are in. In a timely manner.

Unless the block is full and yours happens to be amongst the lower fees *no matter what fee you actually attached* and *no matter what miners would be willing to include your transaction for*.

Go down the post office, pay first class for a parcel to your mother to arrive in time for her birthday then watch in amazement as she doesn't get her present and the post office guy explains "The guy over there wanted to pay more so we threw your parcel in the back of the storage room, LOL"

You pay the fee, you are in. In a timely manner.

OK, what is "the fee"? I want numbers.

I don't know why but the bolded bit really made me laugh.

Laugh? Strange, because it's exactly the problem we're facing.

[oda.krell]

There's no entitlement that I can produce all kind of spam and they have to be included in one or a few blocks (for peanuts).

Guess what, there's no kind of requirement of that for miners either. Even with no block size limit at all. So moot point.

You pay the fee, you are in. In a timely manner.

Unless the block is full and yours happens to be amongst the lower fees *no matter what fee you actually attached* and *no matter what miners would be willing to include your transaction for*.

Go down the post office, pay first class for a parcel to your mother to arrive in time for her birthday then watch in amazement as she doesn't get her present and the post office guy explains "The guy over there wanted to pay more so we threw your parcel in the back of the storage room, LOL"

You pay the fee, you are in. In a timely manner.

OK, what is "the fee"? I want numbers.

I don't know why but the bolded bit really made me laugh.

My post office guy does exactly the same, but tends to end his sentences in "top kek".

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[600watt]

I don't know why this didn't occur to me until just now, but with well over 50% hashing power in China, what happens if the Communist Party confiscates all the mines? Then instead of shutting them down, they merge the pools and double spend until the price crashes to pennies.

It wouldn't even do any good to fork away from them.  They have the ASICs, so they could just jump on the new fork and double spend again.

I think this is the biggest security threat to Bitcoin right now. This is a bigger threat than pools, massive miner farms, fewer nodes, anything.   

These mines are too big to hide. If the ChiComs don't know where they all are, they could easily find out.

The Red Chinese government is the only power on earth that could shut down Bitcoin right now, but they could do it with a few phone calls.   They have reasons for doing it too, from preserving the value of the Renmimbi to enforcing capital controls, to consumer protection to regulating commerce to protecting incumbent players or even propping up their preferred altcoin (Litecoin?)

jesus, the communists are the big threat to bitcoin? the c o m m u n i s t s ?!?! 



such ideology…


btw: when the feds decide to jail everyone for 20 years that touches bitcoin, and enforce this worldwide, how long would bitcoin survive?

[lottery248]

I don't know why this didn't occur to me until just now, but with well over 50% hashing power in China, what happens if the Communist Party confiscates all the mines? Then instead of shutting them down, they merge the pools and double spend until the price crashes to pennies.

It wouldn't even do any good to fork away from them.  They have the ASICs, so they could just jump on the new fork and double spend again.

I think this is the biggest security threat to Bitcoin right now. This is a bigger threat than pools, massive miner farms, fewer nodes, anything.  

These mines are too big to hide. If the ChiComs don't know where they all are, they could easily find out.

The Red Chinese government is the only power on earth that could shut down Bitcoin right now, but they could do it with a few phone calls.   They have reasons for doing it too, from preserving the value of the Renmimbi to enforcing capital controls, to consumer protection to regulating commerce to protecting incumbent players or even propping up their preferred altcoin (Litecoin?)

jesus, the communists are the big threat to bitcoin? the c o m m u n i s t s ?!?!  



such ideology…


btw: when the feds decide to jail everyone for 20 years that touches bitcoin, and enforce this worldwide, how long would bitcoin survive?

altcoin would probably be the best solution as of now, because feds would just ban bitcoin, but not the altcoins - FYI the altcoins could be created easily to bypass this kind of law; like Dash / monero AFAIK could get your transaction go traceless. unless the law could crack the cryptography, otherwise the bitcoin remains safe from this kind of crash.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[lottery248]

Coin



Explanation

as we can see, based on the recent hours, the bitcoin price remains stable after the fall of Mike. however as i can see, except the finex, the rest are having another panic on selling. as of 19:06 the price in china stands around 2550, equivalent to $387, not too far compared with finex.
we cannot see anything bright at all, and i told some of the people who minds, real life factor even unrelated to bitcoin could decide the bitcoin price. (seems darknet is being physically cracked down)

[pork pie]

..... (seems darknet is being physically cracked down)

What do you mean by physically cracked down? I have nothing to do with the darknet so I have to get news of anything happening to it here. The last big news I remember was when evolution closed because it said there was a new way for the feds to attack it. Have they devised another new way to attack the darknet?

[swan77]

https://i.imgur.com/1qAkzA5.png
https://i.imgur.com/EDloGrT.png

i love those full blocks! its a fckn good sign!

Do you really believe those chart buddy numbers?   I mean really, if you look at Blockchain.info, you get spikes between 45% and 75%, but currently, the average is around 60%.

They look like more than 75% full right now. That could create problems if you need a transaction confirming quickly. You could probably average the blocks out over a few hours to make it look like the average is below 75% full, but that doesn't help people who need transactions confirming quickly right now. There are times when the average is below 45%, and other times when it's above 90% (which is creating problems).

http://s12.postimg.org/6pezfgxh9/blockchain.jpg

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[AlexGR]

They look like more than 75% full right now. That could create problems if you need a transaction confirming quickly. You could probably average the blocks out over a few hours to make it look like the average is below 75% full, but that doesn't help people who need transactions confirming quickly right now. There are times when the average is below 45%, and other times when it's above 90% (which is creating problems).

https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-block-size?showDataPoints=true&timespan=30days&daysAverageString=1&scale=0&address=

0.71mb = there's an extra 40% capacity.

Ane people are still paying peanuts for the bulk of transactions (free or near free): http://www.cointape.com/

....with not much "urgency" in their tx confirmation - otherwise they'd bump their fees up by a few satoshis.

On the other hand those that pay more normal fees, get included in 0-1 blocks.

[BldSwtTrs]

They look like more than 75% full right now. That could create problems if you need a transaction confirming quickly. You could probably average the blocks out over a few hours to make it look like the average is below 75% full, but that doesn't help people who need transactions confirming quickly right now. There are times when the average is below 45%, and other times when it's above 90% (which is creating problems).

https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-block-size?showDataPoints=true&timespan=30days&daysAverageString=1&scale=0&address=

0.71mb = there's an extra 40% capacity.

Ane people are still paying peanuts for the bulk of transactions (free or near free): http://www.cointape.com/

....with not much "urgency" in their tx confirmation - otherwise they'd bump their fees up by a few satoshis.

On the other hand those that pay more normal fees, get included in 0-1 blocks.

There is something called the "future" which is important to take into consideration when thinking about stuff.

[lottery248]

..... (seems darknet is being physically cracked down)

What do you mean by physically cracked down? I have nothing to do with the darknet so I have to get news of anything happening to it here. The last big news I remember was when evolution closed because it said there was a new way for the feds to attack it. Have they devised another new way to attack the darknet?

idk, i just assume about the phenomena of the net. sorry if i just guessed incorrectly here.
FYI, IS could be a factor to push down the trust of the bitcoiners - hackers for the the bitcoins could be them.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[coins101]

....
There is something called the "future" which is important to take into consideration when thinking about stuff.

And that future is HD and 4k on demand video that will hog the internet and ration access to bandwidth intensive applications:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1333366.msg13604998#msg13604998

[AlexGR]

They look like more than 75% full right now. That could create problems if you need a transaction confirming quickly. You could probably average the blocks out over a few hours to make it look like the average is below 75% full, but that doesn't help people who need transactions confirming quickly right now. There are times when the average is below 45%, and other times when it's above 90% (which is creating problems).

https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-block-size?showDataPoints=true&timespan=30days&daysAverageString=1&scale=0&address=

0.71mb = there's an extra 40% capacity.

Ane people are still paying peanuts for the bulk of transactions (free or near free): http://www.cointape.com/

....with not much "urgency" in their tx confirmation - otherwise they'd bump their fees up by a few satoshis.

On the other hand those that pay more normal fees, get included in 0-1 blocks.

There is something called the "future" which is important to take into consideration when thinking about stuff.

The future is kind-of-accounted for (considering the problems of BTC in scaling, which are much deeper with current technology than a change in block size) through

a) devs working on scaling
b) fees that will eliminate a lot of dust/spam that are now processed when they shouldn't

Blocks getting full is a meaningless factoid without seeing the quality of transactions and fees involved. We could have 2 mb blocks tomorrow morning and someone could activate a script and fill them up for peanuts. He wouldn't be in any hurry of course for inclusion, so he'd pay the absolute minimum he could get away with. After all even if 500kb legit transactions are ahead of him and he takes the last 1.5mb of the block with zero/near zero fees, the effect for an outsider would be that "...oh my gawd blocks are full - even after we went from 1mb to 2mb... Oh shit we need 4mb!!!"

If you see threads back in 2013, you'll see they anticipated that given the size used they were expecting a problem in 2014 or so and some were like, bullshit, it's just a lot of spam by satoshi dice and similar stuff. Those who went with just the quantity of data failed to predict that we'd be still running in 2016 with 40-50% capacity to spare, those who examined the quality of data knew there was nothing to worry about. That's not to say that an increase is not needed. Of course it is. Multiple increases will be needed. But nothing will happen even if blocks are full 100% of the time with junk. We've seen emulation runs with the various "stress tests". All normal txs went through with a fee, spam stayed in the queue. The fullblockalypse that never was.

[ghandi]

flatlining once more...let's hope for some breakdown!

[coins101]

...fullblockalypse....

That's a great title for a film, tv series and or t-shirt....but it is proof that you're just making stuff up on the hoof