Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

Whatever it is that the economic majority thinks is more important. If it is sticking with the existing miner fleet, that's where the value ends up. If it is firing the existing miner fleet, that's where the value ends up. There is no answer you or I can state without that information that is more correct than another.

OK.  But note that the Core devs cannot "fire the miners", just as I cannot fire the Core devs or the miners.  They have no power to stop or hamper the CartelCoin, nor the OldCoin. All they can do is what I can do create the CoreCoin (or StolfiCoin) and hope that people will use it.  They cannot even ask people to choose between the two: each client will start with the same coins on each branch, and can move them independently.

[Andre#]

has anyone noticed that you cant make new btc addresses on exchanges now!, bittrex and polo dont allow it anymore, its one address per account ( with id on polo )
hmm i wonder why??

I just made a new one at Kraken. No problems.

[smooth]

Whatever it is that the economic majority thinks is more important. If it is sticking with the existing miner fleet, that's where the value ends up. If it is firing the existing miner fleet, that's where the value ends up. There is no answer you or I can state without that information that is more correct than another.

OK.  But note that the Core devs cannot "fire the miners", just as I cannot fire the Core devs or the miners.  They have no power to stop or hamper the CartelCoin, nor the OldCoin. All they can do is what I can do create the CoreCoin (or StolfiCoin) and hope that people will use it.  They cannot even ask people to choose between the two: each client will start with the same coins on each branch, and can move them independently.

I never mentioned the Core devs.

[marcus_of_augustus]

World faces wave of epic debt defaults, fears central bank veteran
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/12108569/World-faces-wave-of-epic-debt-defaults-fears-central-bank-veteran.html

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[Andre#]

People need to do a bank run in every exchange (maybe even online wallets too) well before we reach the point of the hard fork, to ensure that they have control of their BTCs.

AlexGR raises an excellent point. If there is an upcoming contentious hardfork scheduled then the first things people are going to do is withdraw ALL their coins off the exchanges and out of any custodial services.

All those bitcoin alliance folks and corporates that have made their businesses out of holding on to other people's coins in custody should keep that mind whilst they are pushing for contentious hardforks.

Ah, AlexGR's FUD sidekick...

Which idiots are going to leave their coins on an exchange or with Coinbase or BitGo or Bitpay before a hardfork? Almost all custody coins are going to be going back to their rightful owners before a contentious hardfork, the free market will do its job no?

Why leave the vote with the third party holders which fork your coins will end up on when you can keep your options open and hedge bets by holding them in cold storage for yourself?

*edited.

Of course. But why would it be a problem to withdraw when they don't do fractional reserve? It isn't, and hence, it's not a fear factor.

[peonminer]

And now for something completely different: something tenously related to trading



Note how the volume pattern changed on OKCoin after the last drop. Before the drop you could see the day/night rythm proper of China's time zone. After the drop there is nearly continuous activity, around the clock. Robot traders frantically proping up the price is not a far-fetched possibility...

The volume pattern before the drop itself was different than what I remembered from 2014.  Then it was smother, more sinusoidal.  The one you see on the image above has strong daily peaks that decay abruptly. Maybe some bitcoin ponzi in China updates his webpage once a day?

Good point. Something has changed . . . Strange things afoot . . .

[JayJuanGee]

And now for something completely different: something tenously related to trading



Note how the volume pattern changed on OKCoin after the last drop. Before the drop you could see the day/night rythm proper of China's time zone. After the drop there is nearly continuous activity, around the clock. Robot traders frantically proping up the price is not a far-fetched possibility...

The volume pattern before the drop itself was different than what I remembered from 2014.  Then it was smother, more sinusoidal.  The one you see on the image above has strong daily peaks that decay abruptly. Maybe some bitcoin ponzi in China updates his webpage once a day?

Hopefully most of us realize that Chinese exchanges with no fees do not drive btc's market price, except for FUD spreaders still liking to attribute  more than warranted weight to whatever the Chinese no fee exchanges are doing.

[lottery248]

And now for something completely different: something tenously related to trading



Note how the volume pattern changed on OKCoin after the last drop. Before the drop you could see the day/night rythm proper of China's time zone. After the drop there is nearly continuous activity, around the clock. Robot traders frantically proping up the price is not a far-fetched possibility...

The volume pattern before the drop itself was different than what I remembered from 2014.  Then it was smother, more sinusoidal.  The one you see on the image above has strong daily peaks that decay abruptly. Maybe some bitcoin ponzi in China updates his webpage once a day?

Hopefully most of us realize that Chinese exchanges with no fees do not drive btc's market price, except for FUD spreaders still liking to attribute  more than warranted weight to whatever the Chinese no fee exchanges are doing.

explicitly, in fact even if you have a little bitcoins to trade there, you could just ally some of the users to push up the trading volume, that's why www.coinmarketcap.com excludes the volume that the trading site in china has, if included them up, it would be at least a billion or even two. this means the volume 'farming'.

[smooth]

People need to do a bank run in every exchange (maybe even online wallets too) well before we reach the point of the hard fork, to ensure that they have control of their BTCs.

AlexGR raises an excellent point. If there is an upcoming contentious hardfork scheduled then the first things people are going to do is withdraw ALL their coins off the exchanges and out of any custodial services.

All those bitcoin alliance folks and corporates that have made their businesses out of holding on to other people's coins in custody should keep that mind whilst they are pushing for contentious hardforks.

Ah, AlexGR's FUD sidekick...

Which idoits are going to leave their coins on an exchange or with Coinbase or BitGo or Bitpay before a hardfork?

Why leave the vote with them which fork your coins will end up on when you can keep your options open and hedge bets by holding them in cold storage?

Not really clear why people leave quiet coins there in the first place.

Because many people think that those are the best places to keep their own bitcoin, not everyone knows all the implications of leaving coins there.
The Bitcoin world is not only made by people from this forum: I think most of the people who use BTC don't even come here to understand what it is.
We have to be realistic: for the majority of the people BTC = speculation (and we are writing in a speculation thread)

Speculation (intelligently) means understanding the bets you make, and maximizing your expected returns, which includes not getting Goxed. But then, not all speculators are good speculators. It's pretty much zero sum after all, and most lose.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[AlexGR]

Splitting a currency unit into two does not dilute the currency any more than moving the decimal point does.

In order to dilute you would need to create new units and issue them to someone other than existing holders.

Well mining does create new units, doesn't it? And instead of having +6mn coins, you then have +12mn due to parallel mining of +3600 coins on each fork.

Regarding existing holders, if you have your own keys you are relatively ok (minus the obvious destruction of USD value), but the situation with coins in online exchanges and wallets will be "problematic" if say an exchange with 500k BTCs, say 'ok my clients, now you have 500k BTCCs because we adopted this fork' (and we are keeping 500k BTCs of the other fork for ourselves). It would be like stealing BTCs and exchanging them for Gavincoins.

People need to do a bank run in every exchange (maybe even online wallets too) well before we reach the point of the hard fork, to ensure that they have control of their BTCs.

Alex, what have you been smoking dear boy? I'd like some.

Exchanges would be in court for years, well the ones that didn't have their doors smashed in, if they tried a slight of hand like that

Karpeles got away with 700k BTCs and said "oops, malleability bug".

They could easily say "well... you know... hard fork... force majeure! Not our fault".

Why would anyone risk this instead of pulling their money out.

[8up]

Splitting a currency unit into two does not dilute the currency any more than moving the decimal point does.

In order to dilute you would need to create new units and issue them to someone other than existing holders.

Well mining does create new units, doesn't it? And instead of having +6mn coins, you then have +12mn due to parallel mining of +3600 coins on each fork.

Regarding existing holders, if you have your own keys you are relatively ok (minus the obvious destruction of USD value), but the situation with coins in online exchanges and wallets will be "problematic" if say an exchange with 500k BTCs, say 'ok my clients, now you have 500k BTCCs because we adopted this fork' (and we are keeping 500k BTCs of the other fork for ourselves). It would be like stealing BTCs and exchanging them for Gavincoins.

People need to do a bank run in every exchange (maybe even online wallets too) well before we reach the point of the hard fork, to ensure that they have control of their BTCs.

Alex, what have you been smoking dear boy? I'd like some.

Exchanges would be in court for years, well the ones that didn't have their doors smashed in, if they tried a slight of hand like that

Karpeles got away with 700k BTCs and said "oops, malleability bug".

They could easily say "well... you know... hard fork... force majeure! Not our fault".

Why would anyone risk this instead of pulling their money out.

Because the maintainance of the ledger IS NOT the ledger itself. There is no risk in holding any amount of bitcoin on both forks.

BTW: I hope you guys pull out all your money before the fork. This will be an epic buy opportunity! 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[CuntChocula]

I could do that myself now: make a copy of core, change the PoW formula, and presto: a hard fork happened, and the coin has split.  If the 1000 PH/s is not important, what is the difference between my bitcoin and their bitcoin?

For a start, the PoW.

After that, it depends.

Depends on what?  If the hashpower is not important, and preserving the PoW is not important, then what is the magic factor that would cause all the value to go to the CoreCoin branch instead of the CartelCoin branch? 

Whatever it is that the economic majority thinks is more important. If it is sticking with the existing miner fleet, that's where the value ends up. If it is firing the existing miner fleet, that's where the value ends up. There is no answer you or I can state without that information that is more correct than another.

ELI5 the mechanism for the the "economic majority" to make its wishes known & relevant?
Assuming I hold 90% of all the coins mined to date (I'm economic majority), how do I go about this shit?
If I'm just holding the coin (not solding), why do my wishes matter to the miners (I do not buy, only hodl)? To the exchanges (I do not trade, only hodl)?

[orpington]

It's the same faggots dribbling the same nonsense in this thread.

some Juan Juan faggot, some billyjean faggot, i can't even remember your stupid names.

I can't even be bothered ignoring you retards, I just scroll down past whatever you idiots say.

Why don't you faggots get a hobby or something, you're the kings of the special olympics, absolute fucking retards.

Sell your coins or don't i dont give a fuck, i'll be the one having the last laugh when Bitcoin goes through the roof.

wtf that's too funny!

U forgot "Cunt" Chocula dude?!

[AlexGR]

Splitting a currency unit into two does not dilute the currency any more than moving the decimal point does.

In order to dilute you would need to create new units and issue them to someone other than existing holders.

Well mining does create new units, doesn't it? And instead of having +6mn coins, you then have +12mn due to parallel mining of +3600 coins on each fork.

Regarding existing holders, if you have your own keys you are relatively ok (minus the obvious destruction of USD value), but the situation with coins in online exchanges and wallets will be "problematic" if say an exchange with 500k BTCs, say 'ok my clients, now you have 500k BTCCs because we adopted this fork' (and we are keeping 500k BTCs of the other fork for ourselves). It would be like stealing BTCs and exchanging them for Gavincoins.

People need to do a bank run in every exchange (maybe even online wallets too) well before we reach the point of the hard fork, to ensure that they have control of their BTCs.

Alex, what have you been smoking dear boy? I'd like some.

Exchanges would be in court for years, well the ones that didn't have their doors smashed in, if they tried a slight of hand like that

Karpeles got away with 700k BTCs and said "oops, malleability bug".

They could easily say "well... you know... hard fork... force majeure! Not our fault".

Why would anyone risk this instead of pulling their money out.

Because the maintainance of the ledger IS NOT the ledger itself. There is no risk in holding any amount of bitcoin on both forks.

Unless exchanges commit to offering both BTC and BTCC trading, with dual wallets, dual market engines etc, any BTC coins that remain in an exchange that "shifts" to BTCC can (and probably will be) "confiscated" and users will be given only ...gavincoins / BTCCs. Exchanges will have all sort of excuses to offer about how they are not obligated to do dual wallets for every different chain other than the dominant one, etc etc. They can even cite the protocol specifications and claim that the BTCCs are actually the real bitcoins and that BTCs are just an invalid shorter chain or something - so why would they even keep track of them, etc etc.

The fork can easily be a heist tool. Don't leave any coins on pools, exchanges, etc etc before any hard fork. If you own the keys, you'll get btcs AND btccs, so you can then dump whatever you don't like. Don't let exchanges take them and dump them for THEIR profit.

Any exchange that is on the bitcoinclassic.com page, essentially has a stated intention of turning your deposited BTCs into gavincoins / BTCCs and keeping your BTCs - unless they explicitly offer both BTC and BTCC trading options.

Even if one is a BTCC supporter, he'd rather have his BTCs for dumping (or HODLing) instead of the exchange who will keep the profit of the BTC-chain.

[smooth]

I could do that myself now: make a copy of core, change the PoW formula, and presto: a hard fork happened, and the coin has split.  If the 1000 PH/s is not important, what is the difference between my bitcoin and their bitcoin?

For a start, the PoW.

After that, it depends.

Depends on what?  If the hashpower is not important, and preserving the PoW is not important, then what is the magic factor that would cause all the value to go to the CoreCoin branch instead of the CartelCoin branch? 

Whatever it is that the economic majority thinks is more important. If it is sticking with the existing miner fleet, that's where the value ends up. If it is firing the existing miner fleet, that's where the value ends up. There is no answer you or I can state without that information that is more correct than another.

ELI5 the mechanism for the the "economic majority" to make its wishes known & relevant?

The market.

Assuming I hold 90% of all the coins mined to date (I'm economic majority), how do I go about this shit?

If you own 90% of the coins, you are the market. Obviously not realistic. In reality there are many participants, and they'll trade with one another and work it out. One fork will be worth more than the other, probably a lot more, but who knows.

[smooth]

Splitting a currency unit into two does not dilute the currency any more than moving the decimal point does.

In order to dilute you would need to create new units and issue them to someone other than existing holders.

Well mining does create new units, doesn't it? And instead of having +6mn coins, you then have +12mn due to parallel mining of +3600 coins on each fork.

Regarding existing holders, if you have your own keys you are relatively ok (minus the obvious destruction of USD value), but the situation with coins in online exchanges and wallets will be "problematic" if say an exchange with 500k BTCs, say 'ok my clients, now you have 500k BTCCs because we adopted this fork' (and we are keeping 500k BTCs of the other fork for ourselves). It would be like stealing BTCs and exchanging them for Gavincoins.

People need to do a bank run in every exchange (maybe even online wallets too) well before we reach the point of the hard fork, to ensure that they have control of their BTCs.

Alex, what have you been smoking dear boy? I'd like some.

Exchanges would be in court for years, well the ones that didn't have their doors smashed in, if they tried a slight of hand like that

Karpeles got away with 700k BTCs and said "oops, malleability bug".

They could easily say "well... you know... hard fork... force majeure! Not our fault".

Why would anyone risk this instead of pulling their money out.

Because the maintainance of the ledger IS NOT the ledger itself. There is no risk in holding any amount of bitcoin on both forks.

BTW: I hope you guys pull out all your money before the fork. This will be an epic buy opportunity! 

He didn't say sell, he said pull it out of the exchange and hold the fucking keys yourself.

[ZephramC]

People need to do a bank run in every exchange (maybe even online wallets too) well before we reach the point of the hard fork, to ensure that they have control of their BTCs.

AlexGR raises an excellent point. If there is an upcoming contentious hardfork scheduled then the first things people are going to do is withdraw ALL their coins off the exchanges and out of any custodial services.

All those bitcoin alliance folks and corporates that have made their businesses out of holding on to other people's coins in custody should keep that mind whilst they are pushing for contentious hardforks.

Ah, AlexGR's FUD sidekick...

Which idiots are going to leave their coins on an exchange or with Coinbase or BitGo or Bitpay before a hardfork? Almost all custody coins are going to be going back to their rightful owners before a contentious hardfork, the free market will do its job no?

Why leave the vote with the third party holders which fork your coins will end up on when you can keep your options open and hedge bets by holding them in cold storage for yourself?

*edited.

Is there any reliable information about which exchanges WILL NOT support the fork? I have already tried to start a list here, but no contributions yet...