Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Chef Ramsay]

i have a dream! i dream of large corporations/governments competing for blocks with 100,000's of 0.00001BTC fees

I have a dream where a bitcoin is worth $400,000 each three halvings from now so the blockreward is over a million bucks and miners still won't care about fees.  

If BTC value doubles more frequently than the blockreward halves, fees will never be needed to sustain miners. Of course BTC can't grow exponentially in purchasing power forever, but it can in nominal terms if the U.S. Dollar ever hyperinflates.

I hear ya and support what you're saying. Time for Core to get w/ the rest of us on making blocks bigger. The fun shall begin again.

[AZwarel]

Miner fees.

It is basic math, fees will only sustain mining if either:
1. 1 BTC will worth so much, that even fractions (or around today's fee) of it will bring profit;
2. By the time coinbase transaction will drop below fees volume (not going to happen till at least 8-12 years -12,5/6,25/3,125/1,5625), will be in equilibrium+1n btc/$ of mining cost.

For both of these, we need way more transaction/block than today - so the network utility will rise the btc/$ value -, but only need those in 8+years. In a natural, healthy market, txs fee+coinbase reward should always profit no less or more than the average profit of any other (real) free market investement/industry on the globe on the mid/long run. Not like we have a free market on the globe...just watch those negative interest rates..

[Cconvert2G36]

Welcome to 1984... citizen.

Are you a suppressive person?

[billyjoeallen]

"The Blockchain" can bring so much utility besides money transactions! And that is exactly what it needs to be - and what most of us were fascinated about, land/property registry, ownership titles, escrow in an uncheatable global ledger, so no, not a settlement layer. "IT IS ON THE BLOCKCHAIN" should be a proverb for "as final as set in stone"- in the 10/100k$ area, because the account units can do more than coffee buys, yet, those daily 100,000 "coffee buys" will be the big thing to bring the first 1 billionth user. The average Joes, who so many look down here, yet, they are 95% of the population. Bitcoin needs them, we can not have a global financial system without the global....

I can not grasp, how experienced - and certainly well meaning, and i am saying this honestly and respectuflly - bitcoiners miss this point, which is: if blockchain can satisfy more than pure value transaction in its p2p concept, it will magnify in value/unit wise, which is all what WE want.

Absolutely! We don't just want to have distributed, decentralized money. We want distributed decentralized everything. 

If the real business of Bitcoin is selling space on an immutable ledger, then the only constraint should be anything that threatens its immutability.  We should sell it as efficiently as possible given that one constraint. 

[billyjoeallen]

Welcome to 1984... citizen.

Are you a suppressive person?



 

"Discussion of a split has already affected price."

Yeah, well lack of scalability has kept us trading at <half ATH 27 months later.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[bitebits]

Dear City Council:

We, the residents, business owners, employees,  developers and tourists would like some clarification on your proposed plan to upgrade the goat trail that leads into town into an actual road. We understand that you plan on only making it one lane until after the skyscrapers are built but will make it a toll road to keep out the riffraff cluttering the highways.

We know you have plans for a Lightning Train some time in the future, but until then you will focus on the goat trail.  Your proposal for almost doubling the capacity by putting extra saddles on each specially modified goat is something we fully support, but we still would like to know when the trail will be paved.

So if you could clear this up for us, that would be great, because elections are coming up in three weeks.  It would be chaotic and probably harmful if there was a change of government and we don't want that to happen. No way. We totally love you guys.

Sincerely,
Everybody.

Briliant, I must admit.

Puts the discussion in perspective, something we will hopefully be able to once laugh about and just nostalgically think back of those good old days when bitcoin still felt ours.

[iCEBREAKER]

i have a dream! i dream of large corporations/governments competing for blocks with 100,000's of 0.00001BTC fees

I have a dream where a bitcoin is worth $400,000 each three halvings from now so the blockreward is over a million bucks and miners still won't care about fees.  

If BTC value doubles more frequently than the blockreward halves, fees will never be needed to sustain miners. Of course BTC can't grow exponentially in purchasing power forever, but it can in nominal terms if the U.S. Dollar ever hyperinflates.

Forget about the (obscurant, biflationary) USD nonsense.  Think in terms of gold oz and oil barrels.  We all know fiat is burning while the BIS throws gas on the fire.

[billyjoeallen]

Seeing a little upward movement.  Why is everyone so optimistic that Core will move off of their entrenched position because of a couple of polite letters?  If they didn't listen to Gavin, Jeff and Mike whom they know, and they didn't listen to reason at the Stalling Bitcoin Conference, what makes everyone so sure they will listen now? 

Is there something I don't know?  This doesn't seem to me to be a time to buy but to wait and see how this plays out. 

Maybe it's just margin shorts losing their nerve. 

[bitebits]

[...]
"The Blockchain" can bring so much utility besides money transactions! And that is exactly what it needs to be - and what most of us were fascinated about, land/property registry, ownership titles, escrow in an uncheatable global ledger, so no, not a settlement layer. "IT IS ON THE BLOCKCHAIN" should be a proverb for "as final as set in stone"- in the 10/100k$ area, because the account units can do more than coffee buys [...]

I can not grasp, how experienced - and certainly well meaning, and i am saying this honestly and respectuflly - bitcoiners miss this point, which is: if blockchain can satisfy more than pure value transaction in its p2p concept, it will magnify in value/unit wise, which is all what WE want.

Really good point and fresh new argument in this whole blocksize discussion. Bitcoin is not just about frictionlessly transferring bitcoins from Alice to Bob. If that is what you think Bitcoin is about then you are completely missing the point, it is like saying that the internet is for emailing.

Being able to permanently store whatever (hashed) information directly on the blockchain is immensely powerful and should not be diluted.

[bitebits]

Today, if someone runs a node (or more than one) would do it even with 20 MB limits (many would do with way more hardware constrains, would even pay for it - like i do - just out of principle).

I think I disagree with this. Bitcoin is an incentives machine. Nobody should be expected to do anything on principle.

there is a huge incentive

imagine tomorrow you wake up and the news is there are only 100nodes up on the network and altho you dont understand everything your read you get that this is NOT GOOD

what do you do next?

thats right [...]

Agree with Adam here. Out of principle / because the altruism makes you feel good / because you want to support your business or investment / insert any other reason. That is why there will always be enough 'unpaid' nodes, whatever the blocksize. I can actually guarantee that there will at least be one  .


Good argument of billyjoeallen added:

[...] No node, no vote. That is [already] incentive enough, no matter which implementation you like. [...]

[iCEBREAKER]

That is a beautiful slide.  Occident and Orient meeting on the common grounds of knowledge and wisdom.  

5,000 year old high culture + liberation technology = WINNING.

So much for the bigoted notion that Bitcoiners in China ("Chinese Bitcoiners") are too subservient, stupid, and greedy to resist the siren song of The Blockchain Alliance Inc's putative authority.

[Cconvert2G36]

That is a beautiful slide.  Occident and Orient meeting on the common grounds of knowledge and wisdom.  

5,000 year old high culture + liberation technology = WINNING.

So much for the bigoted notion that Bitcoiners in China ("Chinese Bitcoiners") are too subservient, stupid, and greedy to resist the siren song of The Blockchain Alliance Inc's putative authority.

Pervert it all you'd like iCE, it won't be Bitcoin when you're done with it. For monero... that's bullish AF.

[bitebits]

i have a dream! i dream of large corporations/governments competing for blocks with 100,000's of 0.00001BTC fees

I am wondering. Could it theoretically happen that corporations/governments want to transact on the blockchain so badly, that they just make sure they own 5% of the hashing power? They will only include their own transactions, and so on average have them added to the blockchain every 20 blocks. That would be horrible.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[Cconvert2G36]

This slide speaks to the Chinese as if they're absolute idiots... like they don't even know what they are deciding. The one positive... the outcome will give me a clear answer as to the level of risk I'm willing to place on this experiment... possibly forced diversification, as it were... pulling the cords after/during the "no fork" relief rally of course.

[billyjoeallen]

here's why I am bearish:

In poker, if you have a hand with a 10% chance of winning $10,000, it's worth a $1000 bet. I think Bitcoin has a ~25% of being worth $3,000 at the next bubble top if there is one.  There is a 50/50 chance that the scaling conflict will be resolved and a 50/50 chance that either the mining concentration issue will be fixed by adding enough hashpower outside of China or that the ChiComs can't figure out how to launch a 51% attack or choose not to. 

Then there is also the risk that Bitcoin is outlawed, hacked, broken or surpassed by a better coin (50/50)

So Bitcoin should be trading around (O.5 X 0.5 X 0.5 X $3,000) or $375

[fichtn12345]

i have a dream! i dream of large corporations/governments competing for blocks with 100,000's of 0.00001BTC fees

I have a dream where a bitcoin is worth $400,000 each three halvings from now so the blockreward is over a million bucks and miners still won't care about fees.  

If BTC value doubles more frequently than the blockreward halves, fees will never be needed to sustain miners. Of course BTC can't grow exponentially in purchasing power forever, but it can in nominal terms if the U.S. Dollar ever hyperinflates.

Keep on believing!

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[iCEBREAKER]

   Pervert it all you'd like iCE, it won't be Bitcoin when you're done with it.   

Thanks for posting that wonderful slide, it's like the Rosetta Stone of Bitcoin's Great Schism.

How do you imagine I'm going to cause some radical change in our beloved phlegmatic Honey Badger?

I'm flattered you believe it's within my powers to transmute Bitcoin into some perverted form (via inaction no less!), but can't fathom the internal logic of such a fanciful delusion.

The truth is Honey Badger really doesn't give a shit what I (or you) do (or don't do).

Bitcoin will only stop being Bitcoin if it ceases to be immune to the populist nonsense and moral hazard insisted upon by Gavinista quasi-majoritarians.

Gavincoin's 75% threshold is three wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch.

Bitcoin is never going to sacrifice its critical consensus for your high time preference.

The max block size will increase eventually but Sorry, Not Tonight Dear.

If you want to use a democratically elected political currency try the USD, EUR, or CNY.