Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[valta4065]

Oh, another moon post. Missed this ^^

NP

You know I actually re read the thread looking for your picture? I was like "what? Never saw this one did I?" ^^

[mymenace]

Coin



Explanation

sideways movement for a few more months, probably.

attacks on bitcoin, in a bitcoin forum, very suspicious user accounts.

defending one self against accusations, defensive as its true?

are these actions that move markets, unable to determine.

[Gyrsur]

Coin



Explanation

sideways movement for a few more months, probably.

attacks on bitcoin, in a bitcoin forum, very suspicious user accounts.

defending one self against accusations, defensive as its true?

are these actions that move markets, unable to determine.

so what? the next 24 hours / 2 weeks^TM are critical?

[bargainbin]

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/i-m-a-former-green-beret-here-s-how-i-would-bring-down-bitcoin-1456165726

billyjoeallen (imposter account)
NotLambChop (and plethora of sockpups, currently blunderer, bargainbin)
BlindMayorBitcoin
aztecminer (imposter account)

I am the only person on this entire forum where my handle is my actual name. It is trivial to verify that I am not a sockpuppet or an impostor.  Yes, I talk my book. Who doesn't? I make my trading positions known more often than I think is wise.  In short, accusing me of not being me just makes you look foolish.

Thanks for the link. I think that is a very interesting article and I agree that a Rough Consensus attack may be ongoing, as I have said many times.  

Lol @ that "I'a a former Green Beret"  link, didn't click it at first, fully expecting

What the fuck did you just fucking say about me, you little bitch? I’ll have you know I graduated top of my class in the Navy Seals, and I’ve been involved in numerous secret raids on Al-Quaeda, and I have over 300 confirmed kills. I am trained in gorilla warfare and I’m the top sniper in the entire US armed forces. You are nothing to me but just another target. I will wipe you the fuck etc., etc.

(navy seal copypasta)
...but no, it's clickbait for the pathologically paranoid, no joke



Why can't they just leave our bitcoins alone?

P.S. Google image search "crying," get a bunch of these: http://lookslikegooddesign.com/crying-children-jill-greenberg/
Now, this is a Canadian studio photographer, pics are all high-def, multi-source-lit studio shots.
Jill, what did you tell/do to those kids to make them break down like that?

[JayJuanGee]

I'm starting to think the best way for me to liquidate my stash is just to sell a coin a week for however many years it takes, regardless of whether the price goes up or down.  The objective of traders is to make money, of course, but the purpose of traders is SUPPOSED to be to function as liquidity providers who reduce volatility.

The overall sentiment of your various posts seems to imply that there is some other better investment out there, rather than bitcoin, because in your framing, the various possible prospects for bitcoin are so dismal, no matter how it plays out.

Accordingly, why can't you come up with a decent formula in order to expedite your exiting of the bitcoin space to place (or diversify) your supposed bitcoin holdings in these so far non-specified "better" investments?

Accordingly, cashing out 10 BTC per week or some other more quick exit may be better for everyone, however many weeks that may take.   

The problem as I see it is that the traders who make the biggest profit in this market actually create volatility, withholding liquidity when it is needed and dumping when the market is already crashing.  I may have made a fundamental miscalculation.  This could just be growing pains or this could be something endemic to disinflationary currency. 

Maybe you are correct?  That is called growing pains.  While BTC's market cap remains relatively small, and while there are only a limited number of exchanges that lead BTC's price movement, it does not take a whole hell-a-va lot of capital to push prices up, down or to hold them steady within a range (even if such manipulations are occurring at a bitcoin loss, such manipulations can be very profitable for stake holders of other institutional financial and even governmental entities who would like to keep bitcoin as small as they reasonable can accomplish for as long as they can reasonably accomplish).

What is SUPPOSED to happen according to economic theory is that as quantity of money creation decreases (halvings), velocity of money (transactions) is supposed to go up to compensate, maintaining the balance of MV=PQ.  This clearly cannot happen if scaling is slower than halvings.  Even if Core changes their own governance rules to ratify this roundtable agreement, scaling may be slower than halvings.   Sidechains, lighting network, etc are no substitute because they effectively trade Bitcon IOUs and not actual bitcoin. You get the same problem that the fiat world has: a fractional reserve money multiplier than can either run positive or negative and screw up the balance.  At some point, Bitcoin may hit stall speed and enter into an unrecoverable dive.  What scares the shit out of me is this may have already happened.  27 months since the ATH, we're trading at <50%. 

Yeah, right.  Since you have supposedly been in bitcoin for so long (since 2011), you should have a little better abilities to zoom out a little bit and to understand the context a little better.  But instead, you continuously frame this artificial frame to suggest a decline in bitcoin, such as going from $1150 to $502 to whatever other selective lower number you select, which is nearly full bullshit due to its selectivity and lack of meaningful context.

Somebody please tell me the error of my thinking, or a slow liquidation becomes a serious consideration. 

Your error in your thinking is that you currently, again, seem to be talking your book, even though you are nearly continuously selectively presenting negative aspects of bitcoin in a naysayer manner (and no matter what you are going to find reasons to make up things and to selectively complain about bitcoin) and out of this world levels of speculation, rather than providing some more accurate and balanced analysis based on meaningful factors.. rather than fear mongering with speculation that is a hella-va-lot less likely.

[marcus_of_augustus]

You should start preparing Bitcoin users for these "bitcoin miners who can demand as high fees as they feel necessary" to write to the limited blocchain.

... don't have too, the big block camp are doing an admirable job of warning everybody about the coming higher fees, (their FUD has been remarkably effective ) ... and so they should to, after mis-informing them for years that bitcoin would be "free" to use.

[Fatman3001]

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/i-m-a-former-green-beret-here-s-how-i-would-bring-down-bitcoin-1456165726

billyjoeallen (imposter account)
NotLambChop (and plethora of sockpups, currently blunderer, bargainbin)
BlindMayorBitcoin
aztecminer (imposter account)

Why is there nothing parenthetical after my name? What am I?

A joker? 

I do my best. Jimbo will you please tell Marcus I'm not a spy. It's wearing thin.

I think Marcus is on to something.

I'm going back to saying you're lambie.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/i-m-a-former-green-beret-here-s-how-i-would-bring-down-bitcoin-1456165726

billyjoeallen (imposter account)
NotLambChop (and plethora of sockpups, currently blunderer, bargainbin)
BlindMayorBitcoin
aztecminer (imposter account)

Why is there nothing parenthetical after my name? What am I?

A joker? 

I do my best. Jimbo will you please tell Marcus I'm not a spy. It's wearing thin.

I think Marcus is on to something.

I'm going back to saying you're lambie.

Sometimes the last cut is the deepest.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

...
tl; dr; pure FUD every word is pure FUD.

Chillax; sexy human females are waiting for you and your bitcoins @ Xotika.TV

i can't i'm saving myself a big load to blow on my GF's face.

Saving. Delayed gratification. That's what good Libertarian secs is all about

That one deserves a big lol  

[JayJuanGee]

Looks like Hearns rage quit has failed.  Im guessing another FUD attempt will ocure soon to try and keep price below $500.

These media propaganda stunts (and other arguable creative efforts of spreading BTC FUD) seem to becoming less and less effective... because overall the word is getting out regarding bitcoin's underlying value... even though you are likely correct that there are going to be continuous attempts at such FUD spreading, and likely for years to come (whether prices are being kept below $500 or below $10K)

[bargainbin]

Looks like Hearns rage quit has failed.  Im guessing another FUD attempt will ocure soon to try and keep price below $500.

These media propaganda stunts (and other arguable creative efforts of spreading BTC FUD) seem to becoming less and less effective...

You're too smart for them; bought @ $1200, like a boss

[Spaceman_Spiff]

What is SUPPOSED to happen according to economic theory is that as quantity of money creation decreases (halvings), velocity of money (transactions) is supposed to go up to compensate, maintaining the balance of MV=PQ.  This clearly cannot happen if scaling is slower than halvings.  

Sidechains, lighting network, etc are no substitute because they effectively trade Bitcon IOUs and not actual bitcoin. You get the same problem that the fiat world has: a fractional reserve money multiplier than can either run positive or negative and screw up the balance.  

Somebody please tell me the error of my thinking, or a slow liquidation becomes a serious consideration.  

Apart from some other concerns you raise, which I think have merit, I would like to respond to 2 things where I believe you to be wrong:

1) I don't know where you get the assumption that the halvings are supposed to have an effect on velocity of money.  

2) I think bitcoins paid through LN are economically the same as on-chain transactions.  Yes you could describe it as some kind of IOU, but it is mathematically/informatically based on the same bitcoins, these bitcoins are "anchored", so you should treat these like regular bitcoins. It's not the same thing as a paper IOU (or a digital one) where the only "link" is the trust you have in the issuer of the IOU.

EDIT: actually, maybe LN might have some effect on money velocity in the future, by allowing (especially by machines) much more and faster transactions.

1) They don't effect the velocity (v). They effect the quantity (M).  So because MV=PQ, a decrease in M MUST be compensated by a proportional increase in V in order for the equation to balance out. If it doesn't, then either price or quantity (or both) on the other side must adjust.

2) yes, you could have some sort of "proof of burn" to prevent LN from operating as a fractional reserve and then you'd be right. Centralized third party actors could also have cryptographically proven 100% reserves (or less reserves, provided they honestly disclosed this). 

Adam is right. This is FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and doubt), but it is genuine fear, uncertainty and doubt.

Thanks, that does address at least one of my concerns.

1) I still don't understand why you want prices to stay the same in this equation (and of course as lambie pointed out, the amount of money doesn't decrease, the rate of new money created slows down).  
2)why would you need to burn the btc?  I think you need to read about LN some more (actually so do I about the technical details, but I think I have most of the big picture down).  You are trading "spending rights" for actual bitcoins that are locked in a special transaction.  If you start of with 10 btc, after the payment channel closes, there will still be 10 btc.  During the use of the channel, there is only ever 10 btc worth being exchanged.  How on earth does this  resemble fractional reserve banking?

[Fatman3001]

Sometimes the last cut is the deepest.

That's why it's the last.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Looks like Hearns rage quit has failed.  Im guessing another FUD attempt will ocure soon to try and keep price below $500.

These media propaganda stunts (and other arguable creative efforts of spreading BTC FUD) seem to becoming less and less effective... because overall the word is getting out regarding bitcoin's underlying value... even though you are likely correct that there are going to be continuous attempts at such FUD spreading, and likely for years to come (whether prices are being kept below $500 or below $10K)

I'm going to speculate that they are now starting to work in reverse. At some point a good nerd rage war is going to drag in other nerd and geeks who would not have considered getting involved in bitcoin but can't resist a juicy intellectual stoush, passive-aggressiveness, handbag throwing, it's got it all They are over-egging the FUD pudding.

Any publicity is good publicity is the oxygen bitcoin thrives on ... drug markets, ransomware, volatility, central-bank bitching, infighting, etc, etc haven't stopped the crazy train yet.

[AlexGR]

that same spam attack today with limited block space will crash nodes and block the mem pool for hours if not days, and cost the spammer nothing as his fees are returned to him.  

0.12 (to be released tomorrow I think - still one can build from source right now) can be tuned in terms of mempool size to avoid problems.

Memory pool limiting

Previous versions of Bitcoin Core had their mempool limited by checking a transaction's fees against the node's minimum relay fee. There was no upper bound on the size of the mempool and attackers could send a large number of transactions paying just slighly more than the default minimum relay fee to crash nodes with relatively low RAM. A temporary workaround for previous versions of Bitcoin Core was to raise the default minimum relay fee.

Bitcoin Core 0.12 will have a strict maximum size on the mempool. The default value is 300 MB and can be configured with the -maxmempool parameter. Whenever a transaction would cause the mempool to exceed its maximum size, the transaction that (along with in-mempool descendants) has the lowest total feerate (as a package) will be evicted and the node's effective minimum relay feerate will be increased to match this feerate plus the initial minimum relay feerate. The initial minimum relay feerate is set to 1000 satoshis per kB.

Bitcoin Core 0.12 also introduces new default policy limits on the length and size of unconfirmed transaction chains that are allowed in the mempool (generally limiting the length of unconfirmed chains to 25 transactions, with a total size of 101 KB). These limits can be overriden using command line arguments; see the extended help (--help -help-debug) for more information.
....
https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/0.12/doc/release-notes.md

For non-technical guys, this means Bitcoin becomes much more hardened against possible issues that arise from spam/stress situations, despite "blocks are full".

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin/USD 3-Day chart.

Warming up main engines.

I'm a bit afraid by your chart... I shouldn't have oppened a short no?

ahahah!

Well two solutions:
1/ markets goes down for a 420 correction and I win
2/ market breaks the 445 then I close short and open a long twice larger.

Win win cause if it breaks the 445 it'll break the 450 for good! ^^

Nothing is certain in bitcoin, and especially when bitcoin breaks certain upward price resistance points, support is not guaranteed, whether for the long term or the short term.

The better way to ensure that you are protected on both ends, is to play both ends.... and to sell on the way up and to buy on the way down. 

When you are engaging in various buying on the way up and selling on the way down, you potentially can profit through the greater volatility, but you are likely running a greater risk of being manipulated and caught off guard by sudden, unexpected and extreme price reversals (that are largely (but not completely) under the control of somewhat unpredictable whales)

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/i-m-a-former-green-beret-here-s-how-i-would-bring-down-bitcoin-1456165726

billyjoeallen (imposter account)
NotLambChop (and plethora of sockpups, currently blunderer, bargainbin)
BlindMayorBitcoin
aztecminer (imposter account)

Why is there nothing parenthetical after my name? What am I?

You are "A FACTOR" to contend with.       

[bargainbin]

...
Any publicity is good publicity is the oxygen bitcoin thrives on ... drug markets, ransomware, volatility, central-bank bitching, infighting, etc, etc haven't stopped the crazy train yet.

You forgot rampant theft (mostly from other bitcoiners), endemic failure, murder (of course, failed -- just like everything else lol), kidnapping and, as always, child porn

[marcus_of_augustus]

...
you are just plain wrong, likely mis-informed by the company you keep. The necessary LN bitcoin TXs that open and close channels will be immediately identifiable by the bitcoin miners who can demand as high fees as they feel necessary to provide their precious adjudication services for the LN. ...

Interesting point. I wonder why they choose not to up their fees now? You should let them in on this cool thing you've just discovered, they might cut you in on teh profitz

I could have copyrighted the use of "satoshi" for the smallest unit when I standardised/named it,
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3574.msg50647#msg50647
that might have been profitable ... but Satoshi deserves all the kudos.