Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[AlexGR]

The blockchain is seriously overloaded right now, transactions are experiencing huge delays:
...
I believe this has also a bad impact on trading (i.e. too slow from and to exchanges).

You mean traders who

a) lose something like 0.2-0.3% for every trade (exchange commission)
b) accept big bank or SWIFT fees for every fiat transfer in and out
c) accept trading taxes / capital gain taxes etc by their government

...don't have a few cents to get first block priority tx?

Btw, the #1 problem in bitcoin trading is not the speed of btc but the extremely slow fiat / legacy banking.

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[Mrpumperitis]

https://tradeblock.com/bitcoin/
https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/4o83su/bitcoins_unconfirmed_transactions_at_34k/

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Why would someone buy USD when BTC is ubiquitously used in the future, because they want their currency to depreciate to gain stability?  That makes no sense

It does make sense. They would buy USD because they need it to faciliate trade of goods and services which are denominated in that currency. It doesn't depreciate fast enough to inhibit its use for trade. Any longer term holdings are invested so they don't lose value. Thats just how the world works - look back in history of 100 years. The $USD has depreciated massively - about 98% or something, yet it didn't inhibit the most monumental period of growth the world has seen in its existence.

It's right that fiat currencies should depreciate in value over time because their primary purpose is to facilitate trade and keep prices stable, not to store value (in the long term that is, obviously they need to be stable enough to store value in the short term).

Bitcoin will be stable (non-volatile) enough for commerce.

It won't be. It's academic. No fixed supply currency can be unless you have an economy that doesn't expand or contract in size. Also, if it was stable it wouldnt be doing its job. Many commentators criticise bitcoin for its volatility but it's that very volatility which indicates that it's successfully reflecting the balance of supply and demand for liquidity.

I'll admit that you seem to know more about modern economics than I do, but I disagree with you.
The reason gold isn't used as a transaction medium is because it is too damn inconvenient compared to fiat, so people are willing to hold a slowly depreciating currency because it was more convenient than gold.  In a bitcoin world, bitcoin would be just as convenient to transact with as fiat, so there is no incentive for the individual not to hold all his money in bitcoin.  Neither do businesses have a reason to ask to be paid in a depreciating currency.  In a world where bitcoin would be the only currency, it would not be volatile but slowly gain in value equal to productivity increase + percentage of coins lost per year, lets call it 3 percent per year.  Any business model that has a profit below that percentage (compared to btc value of the previous year) would not be executed due to opportunity cost (better to stay in btc then).  Might not be ideal for economic growth, but I fail to see why people would act differently. You seem to reason from the economic systems perspective, but it is people and their decisions that make up the economy.

[matt4054]

^^ Sometimes a picture says more than a thousand words.

Nice website Matt!

Thanks -- I'll make sure to keep my thread posted about updates in the next few days

[adamstgBit]

all i'm saying is i dont buy the idea that we CANNOT have stable prices with a fixed monetary supply

Well I think it's time you bought it 

You run a fairground. At the entrance people buy tokens - 1 token counts for 2 rides. Inside the fairground, there is only 1 currency: token currency. (Call it Bitcoin if you like).

Each day, you have an average of 100 people inside the gates at any one time, each person buys on average 5 tokens. So you maintain a "money supply" of 500 tokens which are constantly being recycled, even though the ride capacity is not fully utilised.

Then one Saturday, due to excellent weather, you get a 50% surge in visitors. Now you have 3 choices:

1. inflate the prices so that 1 ride costs 1 token instead of half a token
2. turn people away
3. get more tokens (inflate the money supply) and keep prices the stable

Sure, you can have stable prices with a fixed monetary base, but only if demand for liquidity remains stable (which is cannot in a dynamic economy).

Demand WILL remain stable tho...

The idea is that speculators price bitcoin at say 1mill / bitcoin  even tho raw-damad only accounts for a price of 0.4-0.5 million / bitcoin.
the raw demand can go up down and sideways yet the speculators still price bitcoin at 1 million / BTC.

they expect raw demand to go up and down, they dont care about that, they care about the longer term trend and price bitcoin accordingly.

so you end up with a stable 1mill/ BTC while raw demand can fluctuate significantly

[dumbfbrankings]

The blockchain is seriously overloaded right now, transactions are experiencing huge delays:
...
I believe this has also a bad impact on trading (i.e. too slow from and to exchanges).

-
...don't have a few cents to get first block priority tx?
-

You're not being accurate with a "few" cents anymore.

We started this argument months ago and you said it was no problem because 2 cents, a little later... 4 cents... then 10 cents... now we're talking 19 cents.



In your subjective opinion... when does it get high? 25 cents, 50, $1 for one of the smallest transactions you can make?

ETH investors love blockstream sycophants like you.

[JayJuanGee]

The blockchain is seriously overloaded right now, transactions are experiencing huge delays:
...
I believe this has also a bad impact on trading (i.e. too slow from and to exchanges).

You mean traders who

a) lose something like 0.2-0.3% for every trade (exchange commission)
b) accept big bank or SWIFT fees for every fiat transfer in and out
c) accept trading taxes / capital gain taxes etc by their government

...don't have a few cents to get first block priority tx?

Btw, the #1 problem in bitcoin trading is not the speed of btc but the extremely slow fiat / legacy banking.

Great points, AlexGR.

Yeah, sure it is nice if transactions can be confirmed in less than an hour, but it is also acceptable that from time to time, transactions may take several hours and even a day to go through.. still much faster, economical, individual empowering and secure than fiat..  and the whole bitcoin thingie-ma-jiggie is a moving target, and evolving and expanding, so even if we have some delays and some increases in fees... those matters are being worked on and improved upon to maintain the robustness of the whole bitcoin space and what it has to offer to personal finances and control over value....

[toknormal]

Demand WILL remain stable tho...

The idea is that speculators price bitcoin at say 1mill / bitcoin  even tho raw-damad only accounts for a price of 0.4-0.5 million / bitcoin.
the raw demand can go up down and sideways yet the speculators still price bitcoin at 1 million / BTC

We're talking about different things with regards to "price" I think. You're talking about the bitcoin price in dollars (/fiat) and I'm talking about goods prices in denominated in bitcoin (in a hypothetical bitcoin denominated economy).

In the latter case, there is no speculation in bitcoin itself.

[AlexGR]

The blockchain is seriously overloaded right now, transactions are experiencing huge delays:
...
I believe this has also a bad impact on trading (i.e. too slow from and to exchanges).

-
...don't have a few cents to get first block priority tx?
-

You're not being accurate with a "few" cents anymore.

You have to understand PRIORITY charge.

You can go at near-zero cost if you don't mind the speed, or you can go fast and pay a few cents more.

In the last 24 hours:

108 transactions done with 0 fee (zero cost txs)
46.6k transactions done with 1-10 satoshi fee (network has spare capacity to process near-zero cost txs)
17.7k transactions done with 11-20 satoshi fee
28.1k transactions done with 21-30 satoshi fee
16.7k transactions done with 31-40 satoshi fee
40.9k transactions done with 41-50 satoshi fee
69.3k transactions done with 51-60 satoshi fee
16.5k transactions done with 61-70 satoshi fee
14.1k transactions done with 71-80 satoshi fee (anything beyond here is an overkill)
11.8k transactions done with 81-90 satoshi fee
3k transactions done with 91-100 satoshi fee
6.5k transactions done with 101-110 satoshi fee
2k transactions done with 111-120 satoshi fee
480 transactions done with 121-130 satoshi fee
3.1k transactions done with 131-140 satoshi fee
24.1k transactions done with 141-150 satoshi fee
6.5k transactions done with 151+ satoshi fee


...yes, even free txs are processed. And in the 1-10 satoshi range, there are like 46k+ txs processed. This wouldn't happen in a "seriously loaded" network because it would be busy serving people who are actually paying 30-40-50-60 and leaving those paying 1-2-5 satoshi behind.

On the other side, there are people paying 140+ satoshi, because they have some broken wallet software that is not estimating their fees correctly. Obviously those paying 140-150-300 satoshi will not get a faster first-block inclusion compared to someone paying, say, 80-90 satoshi.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

The blockchain is seriously overloaded right now, transactions are experiencing huge delays:
...
I believe this has also a bad impact on trading (i.e. too slow from and to exchanges).

-
...don't have a few cents to get first block priority tx?
-

You're not being accurate with a "few" cents anymore.

We started this argument months ago and you said it was no problem because 2 cents, a little later... 4 cents... then 10 cents... now we're talking 19 cents.



In your subjective opinion... when does it get high? 25 cents, 50, $1 for one of the smallest transactions you can make?

ETH investors love blockstream sycophants like you.

Do we even know the inflation schedule for ETH?

What happens when the magic internet company known as the DAO crashes and burns (because it's stupid)?

What happens when it turns POS and the keeners start mining the next big thing?

[toknormal]

The end of the next 15-minute chart correction cycle could start to get interesting.

[dumbfbrankings]

The blockchain is seriously overloaded right now, transactions are experiencing huge delays:
...
I believe this has also a bad impact on trading (i.e. too slow from and to exchanges).

-
...don't have a few cents to get first block priority tx?
-

You're not being accurate with a "few" cents anymore.

We started this argument months ago and you said it was no problem because 2 cents, a little later... 4 cents... then 10 cents... now we're talking 19 cents.



In your subjective opinion... when does it get high? 25 cents, 50, $1 for one of the smallest transactions you can make?

ETH investors love blockstream sycophants like you.

Do we even know the inflation schedule for ETH?

What happens when the magic internet company known as the DAO crashes and burns (because it's stupid)?

What happens when it turns POS and the keeners start mining the next big thing?

Look, I'm not trying to sell you on ETH. Do your own research.

I'm simply saying that this arrogant attitude about Bitcoin becoming expensive and unreliable to additional users is BAD, and GOOD for any substitutes.

I only raise ETH because exchanges are widely implementing it and it feels like only a matter of time before Bitpay and Coinbase start offering it for their merchant services. Those in control of Bitcoin's roadmap are pretending that it has a monopoly on cryptographic value transfer... it doesn't.

Hopefully the miners will fork off the sycophants to their own 1MB4EVA keccak altcoin this summer. Then, they can central plan to their little heart's content.

[Fakhoury]

The end of the next 15-minute chart correction cycle could start to get interesting.

Why bro ?

[matt4054]

Traders probably need to assess the new market rules before we see any major move beyond 700, but it might take shorter than I thought. Obviously it's all coming from China, but there's nothing much new here...

[adamstgBit]

Demand WILL remain stable tho...

The idea is that speculators price bitcoin at say 1mill / bitcoin  even tho raw-damad only accounts for a price of 0.4-0.5 million / bitcoin.
the raw demand can go up down and sideways yet the speculators still price bitcoin at 1 million / BTC

We're talking about different things with regards to "price" I think. You're talking about the bitcoin price in dollars (/fiat) and I'm talking about goods prices in denominated in bitcoin (in a hypothetical bitcoin denominated economy).

In the latter case, there is no speculation in bitcoin itself.

speculation will happen regardless of if bitcoin is dollar denominated or goods are denominated in bitcoin
in the end, if everyone expect an apple to be worth 5 sat then it is worth that.
how did it come to 1 apple = 5 sat

well....

there's a fixed supply of coins
there's a variable but fairly stable trend on demand for coins
and there's speculation as to the future demand for coins

and there's a supply of apples and a demand for them....

bla bla bla we come to 5 sat / apple and at that point....

I expect 5 sat to buy me 1 apple today
I expect 5 sat to buy me 1 apple tomorrow
and i expect 4 sat to buy me 1 apple 40 years from now.


there you go i am speculating on the future value of BTC without having its value denominated in dollars.

[r0ach]

In your subjective opinion... when does it get high? 25 cents, 50, $1 for one of the smallest transactions you can make?

Since most people in the speculation section are morons, let me explain it for you.  Even if you raised the block size to 8MB, that would only allow Bitcoin to have market penetration as a checkbook type device for large value transactions in middle/upper middle class, first world nations of around $10,000 transactions and higher.  There is absolutely no fucking room whatsoever on anything that uses a blockchain for microtransactions.  

Even with 8MB blocks, fees would still be high and you'd only use it for huge transactions.  The only people doing transactions on the blockchain will be rich people, or financial entities doing settlement transactions.  Anyone not doing high value transactions will be pushed to off-chain solutions, or second tier networks of Bitcoin like Lightning Network where you can do all the  cheap microtransactions you want.

You will never have microtransactions directly on chain.  You will never have cheap transactions while using a blockchain either.  They're only suitable for high value transactions.

[toknormal]

The end of the next 15-minute chart correction cycle could start to get interesting.

Why bro ?

Because many traders like to go long at the end of the 4-hour chart correction which is currently struggling a bit to pull its socks up.

In momentum terms, the reason it's struggling is due to an adverse cyclical harmonic in the lower order ranges, specifically the 15 minute range. The rest are not inhibiting to a trend reversal but the 15-minute cycle is.

However, now that I noticed that I also see that the 6-hour chart cycle has started correcting as well, so maybe we've got a day or two of this to go yet.

[Fakhoury]

Traders probably need to assess the new market rules before we see any major move beyond 700, but it might take shorter than I thought. Obviously it's all coming from China, but there's nothing much new here...

Care to elaborate more please ?

Because many traders like to go long at the end of the 4-hour chart correction which is currently struggling a bit to pull its socks up.

In momentum terms, the reason it's struggling is due to an adverse cyclical harmonic in the lower order ranges, specifically the 15 minute range. The rest are not inhibiting to a trend reversal but the 15-minute cycle is.

However, now that I noticed that I also see that the 6-hour chart cycle has started correcting as well, so maybe we've got a day or two of this to go yet.

But isn't the correction is over ? As I see we've started to go up again.

[dumbfbrankings]

In your subjective opinion... when does it get high? 25 cents, 50, $1 for one of the smallest transactions you can make?

Since most people in the speculation section are morons, let me explain it for you.  Even if you raised the block size to 8MB, that would only allow Bitcoin to have market penetration as a checkbook type device for large value transactions in middle/upper middle class, first world nations of around $10,000 transactions and higher.  There is absolutely no fucking room whatsoever on anything that uses a blockchain for microtransactions.  

Even with 8MB blocks, fees would still be high and you'd only use it for huge transactions.  The only people doing transactions on the blockchain will be rich people, or financial entities doing settlement transactions.  Anyone not doing high value transactions will be pushed to off-chain solutions, or second tier networks of Bitcoin like Lightning Network where you can do all the  cheap microtransactions you want.

You will never have microtransactions directly on chain.  You will never have cheap transactions while using a blockchain either.  They're only suitable for high value transactions.

My car will never go 300 MPH, and would break if it somehow could. Does that mean I should keep a speed limiter in place to keep it under 10 MPH?

Also, you didn't answer my question... next!

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

^Personal automobile. Like a king