JayJuanGee
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
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July 16, 2016, 12:15:44 AM |
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It depends how you classify low volume. I can see two big bars on the Bitfinex 24 hour chart, and each of them is above 1000 Bitcoins and mostly buying. Is buying possible without selling? No but if the ask side gets eaten into it's considered buying and selling if the bid side gets eaten into. Ah, gotcha. How does one tell if the ask side got eaten into by looking at the volume bars? It's hard to say. Generally you would assume that green bar means buying and red bar means selling but it's not always that simple. Let's say the price is 664.5 and the ask side is just 1 btc to get to 665 so somebody buys 1 btc and the price is now 665 then say somebody puts up a bid wall at 664.8 for 100 btc and 90 of those goes through. So now the price is 664.8 and 1 btc has been bought and 90 has been sold but the chart still shows that 91 btc has been bought. I don't pay attention to volume a lot though so somebody else could perhaps clarify it further. I don't know exactly either, because it seems that you need to look at a combination of behaviors on an ongoing basis, and the order book can be helpful too (rather than merely looking at bars), but the order book can also be a bit of a reverse indicator (even though it still kind of gives you a sense of how many coins it will take to move the price by a certain amount (absent additional market orders that may complicate such conclusions)). You can attempt to analyze one exchange at a time or you can look at multiple exchanges in order to attempt to get some better ideas because sometime one exchange will follow the other and you cannot be sure whether the parties know each other on the various exchanges or are merely leading, following and/or signaling trade direction. Also, it is not always easy to determine which exchanges are leading and people come to differing conclusions regarding which exchanges are leading and when.. and sometimes, on one pump or dump there will clearly seem to be one exchange that started it, but it is not necessarily the same exchange leading every time. Further, when the trade volume is low for a long period of time, then the price could remain in a small price range or could be slowly inching in one way or another, so in that regards, you may look at increases in volume to see if there is considerable buying or selling at the time that the prices move begin to move. So if there is low volume, but then all of a sudden, you see 1,000, 2,000 or more BTC sold (or dumped) in a matter of minutes, then you would logically conclude that there is a lot of selling pressure at that particular moment. There could be a lot of fiat ready and waiting at that price and then the big dump would not cause a lot of price movement, but then fiat could be added ad hoc to cause a lot of resistance, and therefore, there is a bit of a gamble whether selling a bunch of coins, all at once is going to cause the price to move and sometimes breaking through resistance points can cause quick 5 or 10% downward price changes... and it is fairly obvious to see how that can be advantages for someone who wants to buy coins cheaper. Sure, in the end, every buy requires a sell and vice versa, but sometimes you are going to see more movement (slippage) in the price than other times, and when there is a lot of movement downwards we will determine that more coins are up for sale than are being bought and vice versa. I think that one of the latest series of theories over the past few months is that pushes for BTC prices to go down have been coming with a lot more volume and efforts rather than pushes for BTC prices to go up, so in that regard, buying pressure is greater than selling pressure... and that is reflected also in the upwards price movement overall during the period and difficulties bringing the price below certain price points $600, $550, $500 for example. Nonetheless, even though there seems to be a bit of a pattern of higher volume attempts to push the price down and lower volume upwards price trickling, it remains unclear whether (or the extent to which) we are being manipulated by whales or if what we can identify is an actual BTC market dynamics in which the bears are having troubles keeping BTC prices down and attempting to get the price to go down. Bearwhales dump a bunch of coins but those dumps are not very effective because the price trickles back up and does not stay down for any kind of meaningful time.. therefore overall more buying than selling (even though theoretically every buyer requires a seller). Sure, something else could be going on, and therefore, we continue to watch to attempt to read the BTC price markets and to attempt to make the most accurate guestimates regarding what is going on and the direction in which we expect BTC prices to go in the short-term and the longer-term and sometimes we may get the reading considerably wrong because we think that we see a certain dynamic going on then the BTC prices get manipulated in one direction or another beyond our earlier expectations because sometimes there are bigger players that could be hiding some of their cards (whether it is cash/bitcoins or the spreading of FUCD).
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"Your bitcoin is secured in a way that is physically impossible for others to access, no matter for what reason, no matter how good the excuse, no matter a majority of miners, no matter what." -- Greg Maxwell
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JayJuanGee
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
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July 16, 2016, 12:22:30 AM |
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podyx, thanks for the explanation. Check the 1.5k volume bar on this chart. You can see the price going up in almost a straight line during that trading period. I assume that means the ask side got eaten into. If the price had gone down in almost a straight line I would assume the opposite.
You're looking at (at a glance) 15 minute bars? One bar != 1 transaction. Try 5, 3, or 1 minute resolutions here: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitfinex/btcusd, and you'll see that 1.5k bar get broken down into a bunch of little ones. As podyx pointed out, it's not that simple. You'll see green 1k bars from 499 market sells/501 market buys, for instance (1 BTC "ate into the ask side"). If the ask side is thin, you'll see the price shoot up. I think that you are doing the right thing by attempting to make assessments based on various time lines, but also frequently, we are going to see periods of lots of trade activity and some certain level of inactivity... and during consolidation periods (which can last for several days or even for weeks), sometimes it still will not do a whole hell-of-a lot of good to attempt to micro-analyze during those periods because nothing is really happening in any kind of meaningful way during such consolidation periods... but then all of a sudden, we may see a break out in one direction or another and then we may be able to attempt to look at how that break out seemed to occur (was the break out on relatively low volume or high volume and how long did it last and did it cause an additional battle and did it actually cause a break out if we zoom out further?)
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TooDumbForBitcoin
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July 16, 2016, 03:40:20 AM |
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That is a bit better argued than his normal misleading posts. He doesn't deviate so much from facts in his attempt to denigrate bitcoin, yet his emphasis of bitcoin's non-tangibility and failure to add value because of it's "pure" speculation seem to be exaggerated attempts to play into fear of the unknown and fear of the innovative nature of bitcoin. I really wish he has some BTCs stashed for the upcoming post September 2016 Bankmargeddon... (Financial) Winter is coming professor. Get yourself a coat. what a prick. i knew it. but didn´t think he would go that far. what idiots like him do not get: they are making bitcoin more resilient. every crusader that is not able to kill bitcoin will one day realize that he has been used as a free sparring partner. What a prick. My thoughts exactly. How can someone who owns zero bitcoins spend so much time on Bitcoin forums and stress about shit like this? He's like the neighbour who peers through the window if someone parks outside his house or moans at kids having fun. Miserable bastard, get a life. Edit. Just because he is intelligent it doesn't mean he can piss on everyone's fire. There's a shit-tonne of money involved now, who knows what his motivation is. Maybe he's just a natural crusader who objects to any form of speculation on Christian principle. Does he even roll? Part, or all, of his self-identity is someone who knows more than everyone else. Any milestone on the path to bitcoin emergence is a serious threat to his self esteem.
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adamstgBit
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Trusted Bitcoiner
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July 16, 2016, 04:14:55 AM |
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666 is dead guys..... it done, dead, over here we go!
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marcus_of_augustus
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Eadem mutata resurgo
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July 16, 2016, 04:34:18 AM |
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who's ready for some Dragon-fried lambchop ... or a whole Dragon-roasted lamb-on-the-spit ?
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Dotto
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No maps for these territories
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July 16, 2016, 04:50:24 AM |
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I'm currently working on an application that in a nutshell, generates trading strategies, back-tests them, and uses the best strategies to auto trade cryptocurrencies (currently BTC and ETH). Right now the "trade bot" portion only paper trades against a particular exchange, but sends me email notifications on trade entry and exits so I can review and manually enter the trade if I so desire. I monitor multiple time periods for each cryptocurrency, and although it's only been running live for about a week, things look very promising thus far. For example here is my last trade pair:
Wed, Jul 13, 2016 at 12:54 AM ETH BUY at 10.46002995 Fri, Jul 15, 2016 at 4:54 AM ETH SELL at 12.17
which I executed with real money and made a nice profit. It's a bit too early to make retirement plans but I'm definitely excited.
Very intradesting.What language did you use?. Could you use it with, say, monero/btc?
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Chef Ramsay
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July 16, 2016, 05:13:05 AM |
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who's ready for some Dragon-fried lambchop ... or a whole Dragon-roasted lamb-on-the-spit ?
I'm liking this going forward,can anyone help tis part going forward ?
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marcus_of_augustus
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Eadem mutata resurgo
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July 16, 2016, 05:40:21 AM Last edit: July 16, 2016, 06:05:01 AM by marcus_of_augustus |
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As for the proposed ETF, it does not add any productive mechanism to the underlying bitcoins. It only provides a level of indirection, that is intended to make bitcoin accessible to investments funds that it would not otherwise get (such as retirement funds). But, would the SEC authorize an ETF whose shares are to be backed exclusively by shares of a specific penny stock?
Its been a long time since I have seen him on here and he's still vehemently against bitcoin. Why is he hell-bent on seeing bitcoin not succeed? He's a socialist academic in tenure at a tax-payer funded third world university ... what else is there to understand? He's the typical scum that has bought humanity to its knees through a tragically-failed ideology and attendant rent-seeking classes. It's important for them that their world-view being destroyed by prosperity-generating examples of liberty in action is not exhibited to a wide audience.
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rjclarke2000
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July 16, 2016, 06:03:09 AM |
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As for the proposed ETF, it does not add any productive mechanism to the underlying bitcoins. It only provides a level of indirection, that is intended to make bitcoin accessible to investments funds that it would not otherwise get (such as retirement funds). But, would the SEC authorize an ETF whose shares are to be backed exclusively by shares of a specific penny stock?
Its been a long time since I have seen him on here and he's still vehemently against bitcoin. Why is he hell-bent on seeing bitcoin not succeed? He's a socialist academic in tenure at a tax-payer funded third world university ... what else is there to understand? He's the typical scum that has bought humanity to its knees through a tragically-failed ideology and attendant rent-seeking classes. It's important for them that their world-view destroyed by prosperity-generating examples of liberty in action is not exhibited to a wide audience. His posts always angered me but he seemed pretty friendly with everyone so I never said anything. But why he spends so much time reading up on something he doesn't like or has any part of is weird. He needs to do things he enjoys and maybe spend time with his family rather than trolling something he has no part of at all. Sad old man, get with the times! Even trolls have Bitcoin. He was/ is a strange troll breed that holds none and has never intended to hold any. He needs sectioning.
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jofus
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July 16, 2016, 06:13:50 AM |
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But why he spends so much time reading up on something he doesn't like or has any part of is weird. He needs to do things he enjoys and maybe spend time with his family rather than trolling something he has no part of at all.
He was/ is a strange troll breed that holds none and has never intended to hold any.
Definitely a good sign when you got people like that spending there life trying thwart something like bitcoin. Bullish
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dumbfbrankings
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July 16, 2016, 06:15:16 AM |
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He needs sectioning.
I know just the place...
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BlindMayorBitcorn
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July 16, 2016, 06:36:57 AM |
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The place looks like an abandoned old sanitarium. I guess it is, in a way.
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Dotto
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No maps for these territories
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July 16, 2016, 06:42:52 AM |
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Strollfi´s master has a clue for you Strollfil will appear in the history´s books. Soon
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Dotto
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July 16, 2016, 06:51:41 AM |
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Mark T. Williams Mark T. Williams teaches finance, risk management and capital markets at Boston University School of Management and is a former Federal Reserve Bank examiner.Stolfi has a wikipedia article only for himself. It seems very accurate: Bitcoin activities In late 2013 Jorge took an active interest in the emerging market of Bitcoin trading, and invested a substantial portion of his personal wealth in the cryptocurrency. He is assumed to be among the 500 largest holders of Bitcoins in the world. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jorge_Stolfi
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BlindMayorBitcorn
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July 16, 2016, 07:08:49 AM |
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Bitcoin activities In late 2013 Jorge took an active interest in the emerging market of Bitcoin trading, and invested a substantial portion of his personal wealth in the cryptocurrency. He is assumed to be among the 500 largest holders of Bitcoins in the world. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jorge_StolfiSomeone's been "contributing" to Wiki. No sauce tho.
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Denker
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July 16, 2016, 07:58:16 AM |
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Mark T. Williams Mark T. Williams teaches finance, risk management and capital markets at Boston University School of Management and is a former Federal Reserve Bank examiner.There you go. He's the typical Keynesian! I expect nothing from these people than bashing Bitcoin every minute they can without being able to substantiate whats so wrong about it being free market money. They will always come up with stupid knock out arguments and push their propaganda.That's it! God bless they ridicule themselves with that kind of behaviour!
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BitUsher
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July 16, 2016, 10:59:57 AM |
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Bollinger Bands looking awfully tight.
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respawn2
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July 16, 2016, 11:30:54 AM |
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Bollinger Bands looking awfully tight. Yes, the classic "GI tract" Bollinger. Easy to visualize like this: Food enters through the mouth on the left, follows the dashed line, and feces comes out through the sphincter on the right. Colloquially known as "dump." The tighter the right side is, the more massive (and explosive) the resultant "dump."
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Karpeles
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July 16, 2016, 11:59:19 AM |
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Mark T. Williams Mark T. Williams teaches finance, risk management and capital markets at Boston University School of Management and is a former Federal Reserve Bank examiner.Stolfi has a wikipedia article only for himself. It seems very accurate: Bitcoin activities In late 2013 Jorge took an active interest in the emerging market of Bitcoin trading, and invested a substantial portion of his personal wealth in the cryptocurrency. He is assumed to be among the 500 largest holders of Bitcoins in the world. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jorge_StolfiThat's why I love Wikipedia. They might not be accurate, but sometimes they are funny as hell. By the way, how can we know if he's telling the truth when he says that he has no Bitcoin?
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