Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[chesthing]

I can know much as you do, with my eyes looking at graph and thinking logically. (and reading facts on internet)

Right now you see shitload of FUD everywhere, fake news about bitcoin "dying slow death", new fake profiles, and bitfinex trash situation. Don't you just sense fear and uncertainty?


More facts:
- Trading bots love low price, they will buy fuck out of it once the long trends reverses

- First halving price&after

You see, bitcoin never touched that price again.

And right now, bitcoin price is lower than it was pre/post 2nd halving. And this is just because of bitfinex situation.

- Bitcoin is still developing tech.

It's good time to buy if you ask me. If you are not sure, wait 3-4 days.

you clearly have no idea about trading at all.

I mean there is not even a slight correlation with the 2012 halving and the price spike MONTHS after. All you do is interprete something into a price chart you simply wish is true.
Fact is there is no real influence to the price from the halving. No this time and not really last time. Yes it created some volatility.


Also: "Past performance is not an indicator of future results"

I think you are wrong on pretty much everything you say here.

[hdbuck]

I can know much as you do, with my eyes looking at graph and thinking logically. (and reading facts on internet)

Right now you see shitload of FUD everywhere, fake news about bitcoin "dying slow death", new fake profiles, and bitfinex trash situation. Don't you just sense fear and uncertainty?


More facts:
- Trading bots love low price, they will buy fuck out of it once the long trends reverses

- First halving price&after

You see, bitcoin never touched that price again.

And right now, bitcoin price is lower than it was pre/post 2nd halving. And this is just because of bitfinex situation.

- Bitcoin is still developing tech.

It's good time to buy if you ask me. If you are not sure, wait 3-4 days.

you clearly have no idea about trading at all.

I mean there is not even a slight correlation with the 2012 halving and the price spike MONTHS after. All you do is interprete something into a price chart you simply wish is true.
Fact is there is no real influence to the price from the halving. No this time and not really last time. Yes it created some volatility.


Also: "Past performance is not an indicator of future results"

I think you are wrong on pretty much everything you say here.

thing with bitcoin is that it is clock work engineered.

such immutably predictable system.

[aztecminer]

assuming the Bitfinex debacle is over is mistake in my opinion.

[chesthing]

assuming the Bitfinex debacle is over is mistake in my opinion.

You can't rip off that many btc whales and traders without some serious loss in buy support. Now that's just common sense.

[WiiD]

The poll never fails:



price on monday will be
>690   - 12 (21.4%)
600   - 5 (8.9%)
590   - 12 (21.4%)
584   - 9 (16.1%)
570   - 3 (5.4%)
560   - 3 (5.4%)
<520   - 12 (21.4%)
Total Voters: 56

[savetherainforest]

This! ....

Right now you see shitload of FUD everywhere, fake news about bitcoin "dying slow death", new fake profiles, and bitfinex trash situation. Don't you just sense fear and uncertainty?

That is one of the signs of "go time!" ... Usually when all news seem to become negative and there is uncertainty being spread all over the place. Well... that is the time when people seem to be buying penny stocks from crying babies.

[shmadz]

I can know much as you do, with my eyes looking at graph and thinking logically. (and reading facts on internet)

Right now you see shitload of FUD everywhere, fake news about bitcoin "dying slow death", new fake profiles, and bitfinex trash situation. Don't you just sense fear and uncertainty?


More facts:
- Trading bots love low price, they will buy fuck out of it once the long trends reverses

- First halving price&after

You see, bitcoin never touched that price again.

And right now, bitcoin price is lower than it was pre/post 2nd halving. And this is just because of bitfinex situation.

- Bitcoin is still developing tech.

It's good time to buy if you ask me. If you are not sure, wait 3-4 days.

Even though, overall, we seem to agree about a lot of things, you still seem to be speaking in riddles. < accuses poster of speaking in riddles

v speaks riddles for next three paragraphs v
Sure it is true that there is a lot of FUD spreading all over the interwebs, and maybe the fact that you are asserting that to be a factor, you are giving a certain amount of weight to the current status of that phenomenon.  I will concede that what people read, think and say contributes to whether they buy, HODL or sell, but still the underlying facts also remain important, including the fact that bitcoin prices recently went above $500, contrary to the desires of bearwhales and banker shills - and surely, they want to attempt to get the price back down, to the extent that they are able to accomplish such objectives.

I am not attempting to predict the price in either direction, except perhaps to suggest that there are pressures in both directions and to assert that ongoing mediocre volume can allow for quick and unexpected manipulation in either direction.. so in that sense, I fail to comprehend exactly how you could have strong feelings that price is going to be going down before we go up? 

I mean, you did not even seem to qualify your prediction very much, which probably is what caused me to respond to you in order to suggest that the language of your post seems much stronger than anyone's ability to predict - except perhaps some whale who has insider connections regarding either a pump or dump that is going to take place in the near future.

Just had to capture this for posterity. (Blue parts are mine)

[aminorex]

On advice of monkey I am short btcusd over the coming month or so.

[JayJuanGee]

No, I am not a whale. And I do not have some insider info. It just seems right now community is lacking optimism because of bitfinex hack and horrible price crash. And it is true that small volume gives ability to manipulate price. But this manipulation is harder everyday.

What I actually feel is fear. But bear with me. Times when I felt fear just the opposite happened (price jumped up) and times when I felt strong euphoria - price crashed down. But traders ignore feelings, right?

I'd say wait for 3-4 days and we will see where we land. Right now it's fear clusterfuck.

Based on your own feelings (described as fear at this point), it seems that you are attempting to mock some common points of wisdom, specifically to attempt to not become too emotional regarding either your investment or your investment choices.

Do you really believe that advice, regarding keeping emotions out of your trades to be bad advice?

Yes, I will concede that humans have emotions, and even if you program some bot trading, you are still emotionally attached to your investment in some degree, otherwise you would not have spent time considering it and making such investments.

I doubt that anyone is really suggesting that you should be a bot or have no human emotions in respect to your investment, but over time, you should be able to establish systems (whether it is buy/ HODLing or trading) in which you have a general plan for no matter which direction the market goes.  Maybe you do not know every single specific of your plan because sometimes the plan may be that you need to review your plan and to reconsider your plan at various points and upon the triggering of certain events.

Anyhow, part of my point is that you can establish ways to attempt to minimize emotions..

I only use myself as an example because I am able to talk about my own situation, and surely from time to time, I feel emotions when the price moves against me and when it is very volatile, because a person cannot really know when it is going to stop in one direction or another, and even with myself, my built in assumption over time is that bitcoin prices are going to go up.  Therefore, I structure my strategy in such a way that my whole portfolio does better when prices go up, so yeah, my portfolio was doing fucking great all the way up to $779, and it is not in as great of shape at $566 as it was at $779.

Anyhow, I do have to reconfigure from time to time, and I attempt to be prepared for the price to go down in considerable ways, even if it were to return to the $200s.. though of course, matters are much better going up rather than down, and less down is better than a lot down.. yet  overall staying above the mid-$00s is good, too.   

I guess my main points is to prepare mentally and to prepare with your portfolio with a plan that is suitable for you, and if you are becoming extremely emotional, that is likely a sign that you have over invested either in one direction or another.. so you may need to tweak your holdings in order to remove some of the anxiety that is being evoked by the then current situation.

[JayJuanGee]

assuming the Bitfinex debacle is over is mistake in my opinion.

Like what smartie pants? 


Do you have any specifics rather than assuming that anybody actually believes that everything is completely back to normal after Bitfinex?

Are you fucking crazy?  You assume facts (such as people actually believe the whole bitcoin matter is back to normal after Bitfinex), and then you state why those assumed facts (that you made up) are wrong.

[chesthing]

Damn Jay, you need help. At first I thought you were on drugs, now I think you need drugs.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Hey Adam, where do you roll these days? I think I might start gambling again.

[JayJuanGee]

Damn Jay, you need help. At first I thought you were on drugs, now I think you need drugs.

You are probably reading too much into the matter, dumb fuck.

[chesthing]

Damn Jay, you need help. At first I thought you were on drugs, now I think you need drugs.

You are probably reading too much into the matter, dumb fuck.

Well, I'm certainly not taking the time to read all of your long winded babblings - just enough to realize you are freakin' out there.

[JayJuanGee]

Damn Jay, you need help. At first I thought you were on drugs, now I think you need drugs.

You are probably reading too much into the matter, dumb fuck.

Well, I'm certainly not taking the time to read all of your long winded babblings - just enough to realize you are freakin' out there.

And, of course, we can all rest assured that you are well capable to determine what is "freaking out" without reading everything. 

[Karartma1]

On advice of monkey I am short btcusd over the coming month or so.

Looking at recent trends I'm sorry to admit that your monkey friend might be right.
I would say let the summer pass and we shall see at the beginning of September what will happen.

[Elwar]

I was a bit down about the price being so high. I have a goal amount of bitcoins that I want and the higher price is pushing my retirement date a bit further. Six months below $500 would be perfect for me but that's very unlikely.

[DeathAngel]

$572 Jeez, I hope the price doesn't tank too much more. $600 just feels so much better. *Sigh*

[savetherainforest]

Damn Jay, you need help. At first I thought you were on drugs, now I think you need drugs.

Let him be... he lives in a cage, in the basement of a house that is in a isolated forest, in the middle of a mountainous region, far.. far.. far away from any sort of civilization. If you are not from the CSU to present to him stuff like a cop from the CSI would do... your words are meaningless to him. 

[TReano]

On advice of monkey I am short btcusd over the coming month or so.

Looking at recent trends I'm sorry to admit that your monkey friend might be right.
I would say let the summer pass and we shall see at the beginning of September what will happen.

These are regular trading cycles.

When the price pumps to new highs people miss out and try to chase the price and ultimately get in at very high levels and close their positions at lose once we have a clear top.

After the a top, regular traders start going long on the following bear cycle all the way down because they already missed out the up move. The FOMO aftermath.


and then the cycle repeats. once we made a new low. It's always the same. The majority of people will be on the wrong side of a trade most of the time.


I remember 2013 when literally everybody with no trading skills bought into Bitcoin / took long positions after we had the blow out parabolic move.. They called bottoms from 1000$-400$. When we reached 200$ people started to short the shit out the market when we were near the bottom.

History repeats since people refuse to learn from their mistakes. It was just "bad Luck". Just take a look how much liquidity stood on Bitfinex even thought there is a big threat of them getting shut down any day.