possibly, some of the bigger whales may have decided to pull some of their cash off of the exchange,
Sounds as if you think whales keep the bulk of their coins parked on an exchange? With the propensity of pecuniary pilferers plundering principal, would that not be a particularly problematic proclivity?
I generally agree with your description of probable risks.
I don't really know what are the practices of whales.
I understand that people are different and they have different motives... and different decision making processes, and some folks are more experienced than others, some more risk loving than others and some folks have more cash than others.
I also understand that whales will have difficulties bucking momentum in the price direction - and part of the problem with their ability to buck BTC price momentum would be based on how much BTC or fiat they want to keep on exchanges and for how long they want to keep coins on exchanges.
Remember a few weeks ago, there was a BTC network spam attack that caused a couple of days for coins to arrive (and would not have mattered if you paid more fees, the transactions were not going through for quite a while), and that could really screw some folks up, if they were hoping to transfer coins in a timely manner in order to take advantage of price movement (or to dump coins to stop the price from going up).
I do know that generally people can move coins a lot more quickly than fiat (except for when there is a spam attack on the BTC network that may cause a day or two delay), so I was mostly talking about the extent to which fiat may be kept on an exchange in order to rapidly buy bitcoins or to push up the price based on buying.
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