Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Fakhoury]

Well, head and shoulders chart pattern complete... resume uptrend. And.. that's what looks to be happening.

We'll be back over 900 next week. Could see 1000 fall in 2016 yet!

Um, head and shoulders are bearish, no?  

I am still quite bullish for the upcoming week though.  There is greed in the air, but given the long winter, it seems more likely to be spring than the end of summer.

Yes, they are.

[notme]

Well, head and shoulders chart pattern complete... resume uptrend. And.. that's what looks to be happening.

We'll be back over 900 next week. Could see 1000 fall in 2016 yet!

Um, head and shoulders are bearish, no?  

I am still quite bullish for the upcoming week though.  There is greed in the air, but given the long winter, it seems more likely to be spring than the end of summer.

Yeah.  There was a tiny one on the 30 minute charts that played out already.  Just noise if you zoom out a bit.

[JayJuanGee]

Just remember that anything above 850 is awesome.

You seem to be setting yourself up for failure if you are expecting $850 to hold in order for bitcoin to be in a state of "awesome"

We gotta also remember that we have not really experienced any kind of meaningful downward price correction since the lower $600s, so we could experience a correction that goes down 15% to 25% or even more (even as far down to lower $600s), and we will still be a decent state with bitcoin and I believe that we would still be in a bull price uptrend as long as prices generally stay above $600.. even if there were a spike below $600.

I think that bitcoin is in a state of awesome because it already spiked up to $920, and so far we have had about a 7% correction from the $920 price of the past couple of days...

I don't bank on any such spike below $600 (which would be a quite large 50% correction), but certainly, I am currently in a phase of buying bitcoins, and I am buying in small increments all the way down - even if prices were to spike below $600..

In this correction, I have been buying in small increments since $890...   because I have no clue regarding how long this correction will last or when it will stop..... which seems quite plausibly below $850.. and I think that we are still in a state of "awesome" because it was quite amazing to go from $790 to $920 in a matter of just a couple of days...

We remain awesome.

Yep.... There was a pretty decent attempt to test support levels.. and only able to drive prices down to $859...


I have no problem with experiencing continued upwards price movement... I profit much more from continued upwards price movement than I do from various corrections, especially if they end up resulting in deeper levels of price correction or even a kind of price reversal or price flatness.

Accordingly, right now, it seems like we have continued upwards price pressures and ongoing decent price support.

Nonetheless, I stand by my earlier comments concerning our needs to prepare psychologically and even in our own BTC holdings (and/or reserved fiat that is on standby for buying more BTC) that there could be some decent price corrections in our near term future.

I will admit that I am quite surprised by our current state of bitcoin.. because if you look back at my posts, I was continuing to say that I expected a pretty decent probabilistic chance of a price correction sometime after lower $600s either before reaching the mid $800s or even more probabilistically before reaching $900... and I will admit that I have been proven wrong, or at least BTC prices went into an area that I considered to be less probabilistic (more bullish).

I also said on several occasions, once we pass mid to upper $800s, that we are likely to go  straight (more or less) into the $3k to $5k price territory.  Since we got from lower $600 to lower $900s without any meaningful correction, I am now thinking that it is going to be a bit more difficult to get into the $3k to $5k price territory without a meaningful price correction.  I am going to have to revise my thinking.. so at this time, I am thinking maybe tentatively that if we do not get a meaningful correction before passing old ATH ($1163), then probably our top for this run would be in the $1,900 to $3,500 arena)..

Sure, any and all price predictions are based on probabilities, ranges and change with the happening of subsequent (and possibly unanticipated events).

[JayJuanGee]

Hi everyone... Christmas season is a full of magic, gifts, carols and joyous celebration. Have the best Christmas ever by having BTC price reaching 1000usd.  

hahahahaha

It's the "legendary" noobtrader spreading wisdom.

You need to petition the PTB to allow yourself a name change... just request to have a NOT added somewhere in your name (front, middle or back).

[Karartma1]

Floating around 900 dollars but my time has come for a good night's sleep. I'm switching off everything tonight, got too much caught into trading lately. Rest is needed for the best is yet to come.
Hold onto your BTCBTCBTC
 

[Ted E. Bare]

Stop crying Dafar I wish that I could buy more coins. You're clueless if you think that you paid too much.

[Meuh6879]

Monday is coming ...

[JayJuanGee]

[http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img922/382/Rft8of.png[/img]

Monday is coming ... [http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img923/9918/L6LLq0.gif[/img]

I'm not sure what "Monday" means, exactly.

Lots of western banks will be closed on Monday, no?

So, what is the significance of this coming Monday (tomorrow)?

[Torque]

[http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img922/382/Rft8of.png[/img]

Monday is coming ... [http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img923/9918/L6LLq0.gif[/img]

I'm not sure what "Monday" means, exactly.

Lots of western banks will be closed on Monday, no?

So, what is the significance of this coming Monday (tomorrow)?

Another Yuan de-val perhaps?

[PoolMinor]

3K BTC @ $920 sell wall on Bfinex

[JayJuanGee]

3K BTC @ $920 sell wall on Bfinex

Wow!!!!!!!!


I see that.

3639 BTC, when I just looked at it, just now (that's about $3.35 million).

For those folks who don't believe in walls, that is definitely a decent sized wall.

What do we believe is going to happen in the coming hours?

Bought into?

Pulled?

Scare off buyers and encourage sellers to drive down the price?

Or some combination of the above?


(Edit:  It's already gone and down to 664 coins).. so someone is showing that they are in control of 3k coins by flashing the wall... Are they willing to sell them?  That may be another story.  But flashing could be enough of a message to show that at least one bear whale is not running out of coins any time soon.

[klondike_bar]

I will admit that I am quite surprised by our current state of bitcoin.. because if you look back at my posts, I was continuing to say that I expected a pretty decent probabilistic chance of a price correction sometime after lower $600s either before reaching the mid $800s or even more probabilistically before reaching $900... and I will admit that I have been proven wrong, or at least BTC prices went into an area that I considered to be less probabilistic (more bullish).

I also said on several occasions, once we pass mid to upper $800s, that we are likely to go  straight (more or less) into the $3k to $5k price territory.  Since we got from lower $600 to lower $900s without any meaningful correction, I am now thinking that it is going to be a bit more difficult to get into the $3k to $5k price territory without a meaningful price correction.  I am going to have to revise my thinking.. so at this time, I am thinking maybe tentatively that if we do not get a meaningful correction before passing old ATH ($1163), then probably our top for this run would be in the $1,900 to $3,500 arena)..

bitcoin doesnt like to do any serious retraces when its in bull mode.

IMO, crossing $940-960 this week would lead to an ATH, and perhaps a peak of 1300-2600. Its pretty bullish, and im not doing any leverage (just HODL), but i dont expect it to peak beyond $2600 (in this rally), and a rally to those levels would probably crash back down to the 900-1200 range for many more months of recovery and profit taking

im trying not to go full bull and leverage my holdings - weve seen in the past that it doesnt take much to make it rally or crash irrationally at the drop of a hat (or attack of the bearwhale)

[noobtrader]

Hi everyone... Christmas season is a full of magic, gifts, carols and joyous celebration. Have the best Christmas ever by having BTC price reaching 1000usd.  

hahahahaha

It's the "legendary" noobtrader spreading wisdom.

You need to petition the PTB to allow yourself a name change... just request to have a NOT added somewhere in your name (front, middle or back).

 

nah... i like my name,  dont you think Legendary noobtrader sounds cool ?  

[TaurusBit]

[http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img922/382/Rft8of.png[/img]

Monday is coming ... [http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img923/9918/L6LLq0.gif[/img]

I'm not sure what "Monday" means, exactly.

Lots of western banks will be closed on Monday, no?

So, what is the significance of this coming Monday (tomorrow)?

Tomorrow's gonna be a business day in China.. Rings a bell?

[PoolMinor]

3K BTC @ $920 sell wall on Bfinex

Wow!!!!!!!!


I see that.

3639 BTC, when I just looked at it, just now (that's about $3.35 million).

For those folks who don't believe in walls, that is definitely a decent sized wall.

What do we believe is going to happen in the coming hours?

Bought into?

Pulled?

Scare off buyers and encourage sellers to drive down the price?

Or some combination of the above?


(Edit:  It's already gone and down to 664 coins).. so someone is showing that they are in control of 3k coins by flashing the wall... Are they willing to sell them?  That may be another story.  But flashing could be enough of a message to show that at least one bear whale is not running out of coins any time soon.

Generally the wall is placed and pulled so that when new asks are added to the existing wall, the "whale" can make sure his coins are the last to be bought at that price. This is why you see it and then you don't, it reappears and disappears quickly.

The purpose of the walls are to either drive the price down (in this case) or, in a bid wall -- drive the price up. By placing a wall, the public sees an opportunity to move their asking price lower as to be first in the sale. When a bid wall is placed it shows strong support for a future purchase, which in turn gathers anxious buyers to place bids above that wall. When the wall placer gets enough fish above or below their wall, the wall is pulled and either bought into (sell wall) or sold into (bid wall).

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1512965.msg15222331#msg15222331

[JayJuanGee]

Hi everyone... Christmas season is a full of magic, gifts, carols and joyous celebration. Have the best Christmas ever by having BTC price reaching 1000usd.  

hahahahaha

It's the "legendary" noobtrader spreading wisdom.

You need to petition the PTB to allow yourself a name change... just request to have a NOT added somewhere in your name (front, middle or back).

 

nah... i like my name,  dont you think Legendary noobtrader sounds cool ?  

The name has a kind of ironic twist.

[the artful bodger]

I will admit that I am quite surprised by our current state of bitcoin.. because if you look back at my posts, I was continuing to say that I expected a pretty decent probabilistic chance of a price correction sometime after lower $600s either before reaching the mid $800s or even more probabilistically before reaching $900... and I will admit that I have been proven wrong, or at least BTC prices went into an area that I considered to be less probabilistic (more bullish).

I also said on several occasions, once we pass mid to upper $800s, that we are likely to go  straight (more or less) into the $3k to $5k price territory.  Since we got from lower $600 to lower $900s without any meaningful correction, I am now thinking that it is going to be a bit more difficult to get into the $3k to $5k price territory without a meaningful price correction.  I am going to have to revise my thinking.. so at this time, I am thinking maybe tentatively that if we do not get a meaningful correction before passing old ATH ($1163), then probably our top for this run would be in the $1,900 to $3,500 arena)..

bitcoin doesnt like to do any serious retraces when its in bull mode.

IMO, crossing $940-960 this week would lead to an ATH, and perhaps a peak of 1300-2600. Its pretty bullish, and im not doing any leverage (just HODL), but i dont expect it to peak beyond $2600 (in this rally), and a rally to those levels would probably crash back down to the 900-1200 range for many more months of recovery and profit taking

im trying not to go full bull and leverage my holdings - weve seen in the past that it doesnt take much to make it rally or crash irrationally at the drop of a hat (or attack of the bearwhale)

The last week running up to the last ATH had irrational ups and downs that must have margin called some leveraged traders. HODLing is safer and less stressful.

[JayJuanGee]

I will admit that I am quite surprised by our current state of bitcoin.. because if you look back at my posts, I was continuing to say that I expected a pretty decent probabilistic chance of a price correction sometime after lower $600s either before reaching the mid $800s or even more probabilistically before reaching $900... and I will admit that I have been proven wrong, or at least BTC prices went into an area that I considered to be less probabilistic (more bullish).

I also said on several occasions, once we pass mid to upper $800s, that we are likely to go  straight (more or less) into the $3k to $5k price territory.  Since we got from lower $600 to lower $900s without any meaningful correction, I am now thinking that it is going to be a bit more difficult to get into the $3k to $5k price territory without a meaningful price correction.  I am going to have to revise my thinking.. so at this time, I am thinking maybe tentatively that if we do not get a meaningful correction before passing old ATH ($1163), then probably our top for this run would be in the $1,900 to $3,500 arena)..

bitcoin doesnt like to do any serious retraces when its in bull mode.

IMO, crossing $940-960 this week would lead to an ATH, and perhaps a peak of 1300-2600. Its pretty bullish, and im not doing any leverage (just HODL), but i dont expect it to peak beyond $2600 (in this rally), and a rally to those levels would probably crash back down to the 900-1200 range for many more months of recovery and profit taking

im trying not to go full bull and leverage my holdings - weve seen in the past that it doesnt take much to make it rally or crash irrationally at the drop of a hat (or attack of the bearwhale)

The last week running up to the last ATH had irrational ups and downs that must have margin called some leveraged traders. HODLing is safer and less stressful.

I agree with at least three inferred statements from the two response posts: 1) a bitcoin bull run will likely have a lot of exponential upside without significant periods of correction (and any correction is not a necessary condition in order to experience additional exponential upside), 2) in any exponential upside trend, there could be some short periods of price correction, such as bear traps (accordingly we should prepare for such possibilities) and 3) it is not necessary to employ leveraging in order to make a lot of money with bitcoin as long as you maintain a kind of long term position to attempt to accumulate bitcoin and to HODL through various corrections (whether small, large, anticipated or not).

[spooderman]

in my experience the dumps tell you a lot more than the pumps.

we hardly retraced at all so my estimation still holds. i think we'll hang around the sub $1k range for a week or two more then shoot up to $3k+.

[spooderman]

the chance to buy sub $1k is evaporating the way the chance to by for less than $100 did in 2013.