Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JimboToronto]

Another day (UTC), another green candle. Shorter, but green nonetheless.



p.s. Can I be a member of the Drunken Asshole club too?

[HairyMaclairy]

Another day (UTC), another green candle. Shorter, but green nonetheless.

Oh hai must be wake up time in China

[sirazimuth]

Another day (UTC), another green candle. Shorter, but green nonetheless.



p.s. Can I be a member of the Drunken Asshole club too?

absolutely,  it would be an honor sir!  

[r0ach]

Clif High is the same oddball prognosticator who predicted nuclear war in 2010. You may as well get investment advice from Rush Limbaugh. Take a look at his website at halfpasthuman.com.

You forgot the part where he believes the government has captured UFOs and reverse engineers them while creating a breakaway civilization...

He does get some other things right though.

[eddie13]

Winning

[r0ach]

Winning

Windows 10, definitely losing.

[JayJuanGee]

 I built a spreadsheet to play around with formalizing these parameters a few years back.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jv97ERhahE7pP5xAVIXtHEE89Ew4CHiz7imtwsYw8zg/edit#gid=4 (Make a private copy before entering your own values.)

Cool. I played around with a similar google spreadsheet a while back. Yours looks a whole lot more polished than mine

Mine started out as my own modification of the Sane and Simple Bitcoin Savings Plan. Conceptually, right now, my idea would be to create a bot that does the following: whenever X bitcoin is sold at price P for D dollars, create a list of buy orders spread out over a wide price range which, when totaled, would use the entirety of the D dollars to buy back X + a little extra bitcoin. Example: if the algorithm sells 1 btc at $1000, it automatically places buy orders for $200 worth of bitcoin at prices $900, $800, $700, $600, and $500. If the price falls all the way to $500, then you will have used up the entire $1000 to buy back bitcoin at a cheaper price. You can make it as granular as you think the bot and the system can handle. The interesting problem becomes: what is the ideal way to distribute the buybacks? The answer should be determined by what you expect the volatility to be, so that you can maximize how much you profit from volatility. If there is zero volatility (steady rise to the moon), you're basically just implementing the SSS.

One other thing: whenever you buy bitcoin, your bot should do the same thing in reverse, i.e. it should create a spectrum of price points where you sell it all back, but at higher prices. From an algorithmic standpoint, just flip the BTC/USD pair and treat buying btc as if you are selling USD.

Actually, this is a variation of what I do too, but mine is manually rather than using a bot, and my increments are smaller.  I was thinking that someday, when my portfolio gets further into the green, I will likely cause the ranges (increments) to be a hell-of-a-lot larger in order to not trade smaller swings.  However, I am thinking that currently, I am still in a kind of obsessive accumulation phase and also a kind of preservation of value phase - but if the overall value goes quite a bit more in the green, then there will be less pressure to either accumulate or to preserve value because the whole holdings will be a lot better diversified (or some profits taken off the table and maybe diversified in other assets that will have varying performance expectations.. and maybe even less volatile expectations that compliment expected performance of other assets)...

For example, my thinking has changed a bit when my profits were in the red by 65% in early 2015 and in early 2016, they were kind of floating in the break even territory and today they are floating in a 145% profits territory.  I think that my thinking will also change a little bit (at least get tweaked a bit) if my profits were to go into the 300% territory or even approaching something seemingly outrageous like 1,000% profits.  And, my BTC portfolio and profits level does best if prices are going up; however, the plan also seems to increase profit levels by taking advantage of volatility, so accordingly, profits level can still go up, even if prices do not go up as much as had been expected to achieve a similar level of percentage profits return.

[jbreher]

The Indian government has only 600 tons, but the Indian public has....over 20,000 tons.  

20,000 sounds like a ludicrous overestimation - not that I'd actually know. Where'd you get that figure? Genuinely curious.

Though I personally don't have an issue with the world's 2nd most populous country acquiring sudden boost of relative wealth. Especially as the wealth is held by the people, rather than the government.

[r0ach]

MUST WATCH FOR EVERY CRYPTO ENTHUSIAST WHO WANTS TO KNOW WHERE BITCOIN IS HEADING IN 2017
News URL : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVAI07f-5M0

Just skimmed through it.  He predicts $600/oz silver in 2017, heh.  Didn't see his BTC estimate, just said "higher".

[600watt]

Price                          BTC Allocation
 
$200-350                     97-99.5%
$350-450                     96-99%
$450-550                     92-98%
$550-650                     90-96%
$650-850                     85-94%
$850-1250             84-92%
$1250-2000             83-91%
$2000-3000             82-90%
$3000-5000             55-84%
$5000-10000             50-80%
$10000-20000             48-78%
$20000-30000             45-75%
$30000-50000             43-73%

i like that. ending up with 73% of my stash when btc hits $30000 is hard to achieve, tough. wouldn´t that be a neat thing to have: your funds stay locked until a certain price is hit. kind of russian roulette type of investment strategy (you either win big or lose all), but still...

[JayJuanGee]

i've been away for months dealing with, you know, life. but i've kept an eye on the price.

seems like a steady climb this time, not any sort of real sudden climb. maybe we'll hold it this time.

aug 7th 2016 price $593....dec 19 price $793, a gain of $200 in 131 days, average gain of $1.51 a day over that timespan.

dec 19 2016 price $793....   jan 2nd 2017 price $1030 gain of $237 in 14 days, average gain of  $16.92 a day over that timespan

just sayin....

You are correct, but you can also compare this rise to other rises, and sometimes the upwards momentum becomes unsustainable, which doesn't seem to be happening at the moment.. maybe another $60 or $200 could cause this to be unsustainable or maybe there could be a bit more exponential upwards in the near future.. .2x or 3x or more within a week or two?

none of us really know, but this rise proportionally still seems to have quite a bit of potential legs and support even if it is possible that it could come crashing down at any moment (seemingly less likely scenario)

[eddie13]

Winning

Windows 10, definitely losing.

Trading on 10 doesn't seem to be any different than my 7 partition...

Or do you think trading from a bare bones linux would improve my performance?

10 and 6 charts = my computer doesn't even run it's fan.. cpu 10% but I right click it and tell it to run on my gpu and its super.. Didn't know polo could be that smooth.. Can run like 5 polos at the same time better than my a10 with integrated gpu could dream of running 1 polo..


Is their an optimal OS and browser setup for realtime charts and books?

It's not about opsec..

[Lauda]

Bearstamp has overtaken bitfinex in volume (according to bitcoinity) now a dump's started. But coinmarketcap contradicts that by showing bitfinex has twice the 24 hour volume of bearstamp.

China can't be leading it because its volume dropped since it went to sleep.

So what exactly happened with it? Was this a bear trap? I saw it quickly bounce back up on my mobile price tracker. I've already mentioned that I'd prefer stability at $950 levels elsewhere, so the same can be said for $1000+. The rocket could wait for a while to fully refuel.

[savetherainforest]

MUST WATCH FOR EVERY CRYPTO ENTHUSIAST WHO WANTS TO KNOW WHERE BITCOIN IS HEADING IN 2017
News URL : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVAI07f-5M0

Just skimmed through it.  He predicts $600/oz silver in 2017, heh.  Didn't see his BTC estimate, just said "higher".

He said BTCiTcoin would be "80808" in dollars or yuan! But not exactly with a specific timeline. And he also said gold will be 20.000$ when the DOW will be 120k (120.000)

But he might be right since he got the last time right the part when he said 408, then 448, then 408 again then 428... something like that nonsense...

And the "80808"  .. them chinese will probably be emotional attached to those numbers. And the dollar would probably be devalued 300% from the current value. The same goes for the yuan, since they must maintain a competitiveness between currencies with the trading system to balance the imports/exports.

Because as you may know a strong dollar means more exports for China, and a weak one would mean less. So the Yuan needs to be at 1-5% divergence pegged to the dollar if they want to maintain the same number of jobs for the population, the same productivity and economic growth. But, this will be probably till China finds a bigger fish to sell their stuff too, or they will go through an "Ethic Revolution", where they are not forced to sell "cheap fast goods", but move in to more expensive with a higher added value production. I mean.. for example I wish I could buy some leather steampunk chinese handcrafter wardrobe... because reasons when I want to look like an asshole for Halloween or at fancy parties or ball room masked parties.

[JayJuanGee]

Someone just dumbed 700 BTC on stamp to force the price from $1023 to $999, and then the price is already back to $1010, and no one else seems to be following (on Stamp or other exchanges)

[JimboToronto]

Someone just dumbed 700 BTC on stamp to force the price from $1023 to $999, and then the price is already back to $1010, and no one else seems to be following (on Stamp or other exchanges)

Huge dump (for them) on Stamp and the other exchanges barely dip. Already most of the way back up.

Looks like some desperate bear just lost money with a ploy that didn't work.



Bitcoin Bozo. You can knock him down but he bounces right back up.

Very bullish.

[r0ach]

MUST WATCH FOR EVERY CRYPTO ENTHUSIAST WHO WANTS TO KNOW WHERE BITCOIN IS HEADING IN 2017
News URL : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVAI07f-5M0

Just skimmed through it.  He predicts $600/oz silver in 2017, heh.  Didn't see his BTC estimate, just said "higher".

He said BTCiTcoin would be "80808" in dollars or yuan! But not exactly with a specific timeline. And he also said gold will be 20.000$ when the DOW will be 120k (120.000)

Looks like he stole my numbers for monetary reset.  Same value for gold, same value for silver, and same value for Bitcoin because I said Bitcoin will likely get stuck in the $10k-$20k range without either widespread usage and deployment of LN or a block size increase.  So that would be around a 17x for gold, 10x for BTC, and 38x for silver.  Bitcoin will perform better as an "emerging technology" until that event occurs, though.

[r0ach]

Someone just dumbed 700 BTC on stamp to force the price from $1023 to $999

Someone you say?

[JimboToronto]

LOL More shenanigans at Stamp. This time the dump is backed with a sell wall... to no avail. Bounces back up.

Other exchanges yawn and ignore.

Someone must be a glutton for punishment.  

[Elwar]

1024...nerds and their numbers