Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[podyx]

Why is the quaterly futures lower than weekly and biweekly on okcoin, anybody know?

[bitcoinminer42]

Why is the quaterly futures lower than weekly and biweekly on okcoin, anybody know?

coz bitcoin is dead 

[JimboToronto]

I've been thinking about the same thing. Not sure if it's right, but this is what I came to.  I think we've got two key drivers:
1. The percent chance the market believes funds will be made wholly available no later than March 15th. (depressive force)
2. The opportunity cost of not having access to one's coins for this span of time. (depressive force)

This first point is one that isn't a factor...until it is.  As long as there is faith/trust that things will open on time, this factor will be close to zero. If/once is becomes non-zero, it could grow quickly.
We watched this play out on Gox.  While elsewhere coins had a market value of $413, IIRC...we watched the price gap between GoxBux and other coins spread...$20, $30..$50 spread.  As fear gripped the market in the final hours, price plummeted to just above $100 - over a 75% discount of 'real' coins.

To the second, this won't affect the long term HODLers. But those looking for the short term profits, I suspect, will become increasingly pressured to sell 'while the price is still good'. Those most afraid this 1000+ price point is temporary will feel increasing pressure to sell out of fear.

In the end, it always comes down to fear and greed.

If internationally, we saw prices diverging, and going up...then I think greed would take over, and risk-tolerant investors would inject cash into the chinese exchanges in order to buy 'cheap coins', knowing they will be inaccessible for up to a month, and knowing they run a risk of not getting what they put in.  The extent we see this will be visible by buying volume on exchanges, and would counteract both of the above, depressive forces.

...however, with the ETF decision looming, I don't think we'll see such price divergence, but rather sideways action until the decision.

Good points.

I agree that many people are taking a wait-and-see approach with so much up in the air. Both the ETF decision and the announced end of the withdrawal freezes are almost a month away. I also think we're headed mostly sideways for a few weeks yet.

In the short term, I think we'll continue to see a very gradual creeping upward due to the temporary supply/demand imbalance from the freeze (and of course the natural long-term growth of Bitcoin).

The real action starts in March.

[HI-TEC99]

I've been thinking about the same thing. Not sure if it's right, but this is what I came to.  I think we've got two key drivers:
1. The percent chance the market believes funds will be made wholly available no later than March 15th. (depressive force)
2. The opportunity cost of not having access to one's coins for this span of time. (depressive force)

This first point is one that isn't a factor...until it is.  As long as there is faith/trust that things will open on time, this factor will be close to zero. If/once is becomes non-zero, it could grow quickly.
We watched this play out on Gox.  While elsewhere coins had a market value of $413, IIRC...we watched the price gap between GoxBux and other coins spread...$20, $30..$50 spread.  As fear gripped the market in the final hours, price plummeted to just above $100 - over a 75% discount of 'real' coins.

To the second, this won't affect the long term HODLers. But those looking for the short term profits, I suspect, will become increasingly pressured to sell 'while the price is still good'. Those most afraid this 1000+ price point is temporary will feel increasing pressure to sell out of fear.

In the end, it always comes down to fear and greed.

If internationally, we saw prices diverging, and going up...then I think greed would take over, and risk-tolerant investors would inject cash into the chinese exchanges in order to buy 'cheap coins', knowing they will be inaccessible for up to a month, and knowing they run a risk of not getting what they put in.  The extent we see this will be visible by buying volume on exchanges, and would counteract both of the above, depressive forces.

...however, with the ETF decision looming, I don't think we'll see such price divergence, but rather sideways action until the decision.

Good points.

I agree that many people are taking a wait-and-see approach with so much up in the air. Both the ETF decision and the announced end of the withdrawal freezes are almost a month away. I also think we're headed mostly sideways for a few weeks yet.

In the short term, I think we'll continue to see a very gradual creeping upward due to the temporary supply/demand imbalance from the freeze.

The real action starts in March.

Although there is an announced end of the withdrawal freezes, it comes with the caveat that the Chinese exchanges will be using enhanced AML/KYC procedures afterwards. If they adopt draconian AML/KYC procedures a significant percentage of their customers still won't be able to withdraw their Bitcoins because they won't have all the paperwork required to comply with draconian AML/KYC.

That could sustain the supply/demand imbalance after the "end of" the freeze.

[Biodom]

How about this scenario:

chinese bitcoiners are waiting for up to 1 mo to transfer bitcoins out and presumably convert to $$ or euros on western exchanges.
In the mean time ETF is approved, which coincides with chinese coin release.
Therefore, chinese dump their bitcoins into the ETF-caused surge, thereby negating the magnidude of the surge greatly or even completely.
I would love this scenario as it would allow me to buy ETF on the cheap in my IRAs.

[podyx]

Why is the quaterly futures lower than weekly and biweekly on okcoin, anybody know?

coz bitcoin is dead 

It don't make sense how it's lower...

[JimboToronto]

Although there is an announced end of the withdrawal freezes, it comes with the caveat that the Chinese exchanges will be using enhanced AML/KYC procedures afterwards. If they adopt draconian AML/KYC procedures a significant percentage of their customers still won't be able to withdraw their Bitcoins because they won't have all the paperwork required to comply with draconian AML/KYC.

That could sustain the supply/demand imbalance after the "end of" the freeze.

If they adopt draconian AML/KYC procedures? LOL. I think that's a fairly safe bet.

I expect a pretty short leash. Chinese coins will eventually be withdrawn to western exchanges, but it will be a trickle rather than torrent.

While all the panicking was going on over first the rumors, then the inspections, and finally the freezes, some of us saw the whole matter as good for Bitcoin in the long run.

After all these years, 2017 might actually become "the year of Bitcoin". It's certainly started out that way. We started with a bang and even after all the Chinese drama, we're still over a grand.

Life is good in Bitcoinland (for now).

[bitcoinvest]

i keep looking how hard they try to keep the price below 1.000€

sale orders are jumping for 100BTC after 2 seconds 64BTC just to win some time only because i love how the sale order are eaten

Go BTC let's brake 1.000€  tonight!!!!

[Torque]

Samson Mow leaving BTCC:

https://twitter.com/Excellion/status/832240183579856896

Reason:
"To move back to Canada to be with my family"

Translation:
"Because of the PBOC oversight bullshit I can't take my salary in BTC and easily repatriate it back to my family in Canada anymore, so I'm just going to pack up and move back permanently."  

#lolofcoursekiddingbutnotkidding

[HI-TEC99]

Samson Mow leaving BTCC:

https://twitter.com/Excellion/status/832240183579856896

Reason:
"To move back to Canada to be with my family"

Translation:
"Because of the PBOC oversight bullshit I can't take my salary in BTC and easily repatriate it back to my family in Canada anymore, so I'm just going to pack up and move back permanently."  

#lolofcoursekiddingbutnotkidding

It's not like he rage quit or anything, the timing is pure coincidence. He wants to spend more time with his family.

[Ibian]

Why is the quaterly futures lower than weekly and biweekly on okcoin, anybody know?

The longer you lend out your money, the less chance you will get them back?

[Aviator019]

hoooo someone is getting rid of his stash again... question is: how low will it go

[Ibian]

hoooo someone is getting rid of his stash again... question is: how low will it go

No no. How high will it drop to.

[Aviator019]

hoooo someone is getting rid of his stash again... question is: how low will it go

No no. How high will it drop to.

I like your way of looking at things

[JimboToronto]

What a pathetic attempt to crash the price.

If it was someone who really just wanted to buy some fiat, they wouldn't have done a market sell with all that slippage.

It was obviously a failed manipulation attempt... or simply not thinking things through.

 

[d5000]

chinese bitcoiners are waiting for up to 1 mo to transfer bitcoins out and presumably convert to $$ or euros on western exchanges.
In the mean time ETF is approved, which coincides with chinese coin release.
Therefore, chinese dump their bitcoins into the ETF-caused surge, thereby negating the magnidude of the surge greatly or even completely.
I would love this scenario as it would allow me to buy ETF on the cheap in my IRAs.

Possible, but I consider it improbable. The Chinese that would be enabled to extract the coins after the AML upgrades could also sell them for CNY now. The price on most Chinese exchanges is already approaching the western USD price, so the incentive to not sell now is only if they speculate on a price increase (e.g. because of the ETF). I think it's more probable they then will try to ride the ETF wave up to a possible new ATH and not dump earlier.

If the ETF gets not approved, these traders could dump and magnify the crash. So in every case I think this kind of traders will actually move up volatility and not down.

[600watt]

oh... the good old bitcoin all-or-nothing drama seems to be coming back! ETF3/11 here we go! skyrocket or epic dump. 21 days ahead. get the popcorn out.   
enjoy the show! 

[JayJuanGee]

What a pathetic attempt to crash the price.

If it was someone who really just wanted to buy some fiat, they wouldn't have done a market sell with all that slippage.

It was obviously a failed manipulation attempt... or simply not thinking things through.

 

Since neither one of us are whales, we don't really know from personal experience but only from logic, and what other people say and from watching ourselves.

In that regards, it seems that frequently there can be mini-dumps to test support and also to stifle the upwards momentum (even if temporarily).  Sometimes, those tests of support take place several times before it becomse apparent that others are willing to follow dumping or that support is not really there.

Probably, we only know in the longer term if the dumped coins were a waste of time and had NO effect... sure if we shoot up to $1070 or higher, then we might be reasonably able to conclude that a dump in the lower 1030s was not effective.. but before that we cannot really know whether those kinds of short term apparently ineffective dumps are actually accomplishing something for the bear whales or other shorters

[cmacwiz]

Why would this ETF be denied? I'd figure all the same old cronie tactics apply here. Everyone says "approve the ETF  and we accumulate before everything goes boom."

[JimboToronto]

Since neither one of us are whales, we don't really know from personal experience but only from logic, and what other people say and from watching ourselves.

In that regards, it seems that frequently there can be mini-dumps to test support and also to stifle the upwards momentum (even if temporarily).  Sometimes, those tests of support take place several times before it becomse apparent that others are willing to follow dumping or that support is not really there.

Probably, we only know in the longer term if the dumped coins were a waste of time and had NO effect... sure if we shoot up to $1070 or higher, then we might be reasonably able to conclude that a dump in the lower 1030s was not effective.. but before that we cannot really know whether those kinds of short term apparently ineffective dumps are actually accomplishing something for the bear whales or other shorters

Of course there can always be other explanations for seemingly illogical behavior.

I've sometimes wondered about large market dumps or buys just before midnight UTC. Is it someone who has a vested interest in the "closing" price for the calendar day, perhaps miners or their OTC customers whose contract stipulates a price based on a particular exchange at midnight? Lose a little on a few hundred coins to earn back a much larger amount on thousands of coins? Is there tit-for-tat involved when we see such dumps followed by similar large buys to immediately bring the price right back up? Are some huge temporary walls there for that purpose?

As you said, neither of us are whales, so we can only speculate.