Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[European Central Bank]

If they have reservations about an underlying asset that essentially hasn't changed in its function for 8 years now, then that means that they will never approve an ETF.  Because Bitcoin isn't going to "change" significantly moving forward.

That is, unless they change their reservations...

I think any denial of a Bitcoin ETF would be nearly 100% politically-motivated.  It would mean that they (Governments? World Powers?) simply don't want Bitcoin recognized as a legitimate long term financial instrument.  But that would be fine by me, as I think ETFs over time become corrupt, eventually holding back the underlying assets as opposed to supporting them.

or you could take the more generous view that they're not in the business of opening the gates to something that might fail catastrophically. everyone here is on board. someone from the outside looking in, and especially with the conservative mindset that a regulator has, is seeing threats of forks, chinese weirdness and regulatory uncertainty elsewhere. 8 years is not much of an age for a brand new asset class.

i think china would have been the biggest factor in them saying no. now that's being brought to heel the chances are higher.

[prophetx]

If they have reservations about an underlying asset that essentially hasn't changed in its function for 8 years now, then that means that they will never approve an ETF.  Because Bitcoin isn't going to "change" significantly moving forward.

That is, unless they change their reservations...

I think any denial of a Bitcoin ETF would be nearly 100% politically-motivated.  It would mean that they (Governments? World Powers?) simply don't want Bitcoin recognized as a legitimate long term financial instrument.  But that would be fine by me, as I think ETFs over time become corrupt, eventually holding back the underlying assets as opposed to supporting them.

or you could take the more generous view that they're not in the business of opening the gates to something that might fail catastrophically. everyone here is on board. someone from the outside looking in, and especially with the conservative mindset that a regulator has, is seeing threats of forks, chinese weirdness and regulatory uncertainty elsewhere. 8 years is not much of an age for a brand new asset class.

i think china would have been the biggest factor in them saying no. now that's being brought to heel the chances are higher.

or you can take the view that the last 8 years have had a party in power who has traditionally been attached to the east coast banking cartel and therefore not interested in anything new.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

I see that the battle for euro/mBTC parity continues... current bitcoin price is $1060USD at Bitcoinaverage. That's 998.63EUR.

It's over on some exchanges, under on others.

Meanwhile, the gentle uptrend continues. Easy does it.

Nice to see that a market dump of over 400 coins at Stamp had almost no effect. The market seems to be getting less panicky every day.

Go Bitcoin go.

[Torque]

i think china would have been the biggest factor in them saying no. now that's being brought to heel the chances are higher.

100% agree with this.  In fact, it's interesting that China exchanges being reigned in magically happened 4 weeks prior to the ETF announcement, no?  Seems like someone at the SEC might have made a few phone calls...   

[becoin]

This train is unstoppable!

[K~Ehleyr]

...In fact, it's interesting that China exchanges being reigned in magically happened 4 weeks prior to the ETF announcement, no?  Seems like someone at the SEC might have made a few phone calls...   

I like the way you're thinking 

[European Central Bank]

or you can take the view that the last 8 years have had a party in power who has traditionally been attached to the east coast banking cartel and therefore not interested in anything new.

maybe, but regulators aren't in the business of running headfirst towards innovation. they should be conservative. in the great scheme of things there's really no hurry to get a bitcoin etf approved. it's only a tiny subset of people who are waiting for it.

the gld etf took long enough to approve and that was the definition of no brainer.

[Meuh6879]

This train is unstoppable!

[strawbs]

i think china would have been the biggest factor in them saying no. now that's being brought to heel the chances are higher.

100% agree with this.  In fact, it's interesting that China exchanges being reigned in magically happened 4 weeks prior to the ETF announcement, no?  Seems like someone at the SEC might have made a few phone calls...   

I think unregulated exchanges will be a major concern for SEC.

[JayJuanGee]

or you can take the view that the last 8 years have had a party in power who has traditionally been attached to the east coast banking cartel and therefore not interested in anything new.

maybe, but regulators aren't in the business of running headfirst towards innovation. they should be conservative. in the great scheme of things there's really no hurry to get a bitcoin etf approved. it's only a tiny subset of people who are waiting for it.

the gld etf took long enough to approve and that was the definition of no brainer.

I agree with your general inclination here, ECB.  Generally, government officials are going to attempt to call balls and strikes rather than attempting to side with one side or another.  If the ETF seems practical and matters are going in a kind of stable direction, and all the shenanigans and risk factors are reasonably accounted, then they will approve the matter.

Sure, some SEC officials from the USA could have made some attempts to investigate into the matter regarding what is going on in China, but that would not mean that SEC officials have any kind of hard-on to attempt to get BTC in such a place that ETF approval would be more likely.  On the other hand, on the margins, all kinds  of shit can happen and hints can be made regarding the SEC thinking that could cue in PBOC folks to take action - yet even though these kinds of various interventions and investigations take place, none of that adds up to any kind of premeditation or consipiracy to attempt to get the ETF approved - because when push comes to shove, overall the US government is luke warm, at best, regarding any kind of legitimacy of BTC, including jumping into a scenario that recognizes BTC in the form of an ETF.

[r0ach]

Yes, that's the one. Years ago, I shouted down bitcoin disbelievers telling them that 'of course the block size will be increased by the time they get full'. I didn't dream that there would be others who would resist this idea. Mea culpa.

If you accept my thesis that bitcoin is not a store of value, any block size in which the function of bitcoin is to act as a settlement network is useless because:

1)  the main point of a settlement network is acting as a store of value

2)  precious metals function as a store of value far superior than bitcoin does

This means there is virtually zero difference between 1 MB and 10 MB blocks.  I did some calculations to try and quantify how much TPS bitcoin needs in order to not be a settlement network (since it has no value as a settlement network), and came up with the number 5000.  I then looked up how much TPS Visa pushes and...low and behold, peaks at 4000 TPS a day.

So my general conclusion on this entire mess is, bitcoin has no value without a functioning lightning network type of system that allows it to expand beyond a settlement network into the neighborhood of something like 5000 TPS.  This means arguing over 1 MB, 2 MB, and 4 MB blocks has no relevance to anything.  However, someone would need to figure out a safe base block size in order to support 5000 TPS for when numerous people all close channels simultaneously.

[DieJohnny]

bitcoin has no value without a functioning lightning network type of system

Might I refer you to..... THE LAST 8 YEARS......

[r0ach]

bitcoin has no value without a functioning lightning network type of system

Might I refer you to..... THE LAST 8 YEARS......

Of speculation...just like...



The rubber has to meet the road eventually.  Bitcoin's main use was the drug market, which would give each coin a value of something like $10-100 at most.  The rest of that is all expectation of future growth.  For those expectations to be realized, it will have to expand TPS beyond that of a settlement network or blow up.

[slap]

My teenage niece bought shoes with btc. So. Moon?

[AlexGR]

i think china would have been the biggest factor in them saying no. now that's being brought to heel the chances are higher.

I think the chances are actually closer to 2-5% than "<25%" of the market analysts etc etc.

The establishment / authorities / countries, have traditionally never done anything to pump BTC and that's not going to change now. But they have hammered it down hundreds of times.

BTC is rising by itself, slowly but surely, *despite* the fact that it faces government and regulatory resistance. And it will continue to do so - even when the ETF is denied (which I consider almost certain).

[arcanaaerobics]

My teenage niece bought shoes with btc. So. Moon?

What the Fart.  
Where can you buy shoe with bitcoin?
Overstock still taking our bits for shoes?

[becoin]

even when the ETF is denied (which I consider almost certain).

I hope it'll be denied. Dump will be excellent opportunity to buy cheap coins.

[arcanaaerobics]

even when the ETF is denied (which I consider almost certain).

I hope it'll be denied. Dump will be excellent opportunity to buy cheap coins.

My thinking exactly.
Lets get it denied so us poor guys can keep getting our coins and not drive us further into the poor house.
ETF will only make the rich richer and the semi poor guy to try and buy over 1 bitcoin unreachable.

[r0ach]

I think the chances are actually closer to 2-5% than "<25%" of the market analysts etc etc.

It depends.  The wildcard variable in this situation is how badly the malevolent, enemy of mankind, Jewish bankers want to try and force everyone into a digital cash only slave system.  If they believe people getting accustomed to bitcoin helps them in this process to fiscally rape you, then hello bitcoin ETF.

It's possible they might believe adding a bitcoin ETF will also keep people out of the metals market and prevent a run on their fractional reserve Comex.  I think that would be a stupid assumption since if Bitcoin went to like $10,000, people like me would be wiping out all the metals that exist, but you never know what goes on in the mind of the shylock.

[prophetx]

or you can take the view that the last 8 years have had a party in power who has traditionally been attached to the east coast banking cartel and therefore not interested in anything new.

maybe, but regulators aren't in the business of running headfirst towards innovation. they should be conservative. in the great scheme of things there's really no hurry to get a bitcoin etf approved. it's only a tiny subset of people who are waiting for it.

the gld etf took long enough to approve and that was the definition of no brainer.

just another reason for dismantling the bureaucracy